Re Crude Oil, “A Lesson of Professional Technical Analysis 101”
  • June 02, 2017 10:43 pm
  • by Bill Cara

Comments sent to me tonight from one of my associates that are worthy of your attention:

Allow me to educate here in a lesson of professional technical analysis 101. Oil is in a symmetrical triangle, consolidating, a pattern of which is statistically more likely to break to upside rather than to the downside because the prior price action was bullish [catalyst of OPEC’s cut news from Nov of 2016 acted as the primary driver/flag pole]. The higher lows in Oil [$55, $53.7, $52] that we observe on the chart since February are not actually bearish, nor is the price action of continuously visiting the ~$47 demand area. Rather, it’s ALL bullish accumulation as the structural integrity of this chart formation plays out. You may ask what was early May’s deviation of this pattern, visiting ~$44. The answer is simple — that’s called a global stop run; flushing all weak-hands [insolvent market participants who had margin calls, people who had stops in system, tricking people to add more short positions, etc.] Pay attention to Oil’s backwardation; bullish.

Oil’s resistance from $55 due to theta became $53.7 after which due to theta became $52 and now due to theta is near $51.2. Anyone who shorts Oil above $51.2 this cycle is completely wrong. Anyone shorting in general right now is wrong but at least they’re shorting before confirmation/the imminent short squeeze. Be prepared for quick $10/barrel moves higher on the confirmation of this chart’s breakout of the upper trend line threshold due to the calculated measured move. If you don’t think such price increases are possible, then you better learn your history. Just in the last two years, to name just a few, 1/30/2015, 3/18/2015, 4/13/2015, 8/25/2015, 2/12/2016, 4/04/2016, 8/11/2016. These are moves of $5-$10/barrel in a few days. The list goes on as you move back in time. I wouldn’t be surprised one bit if next week sees $58.
Sent from my iPhone

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