US Trading Markets (US, Canadian & Americas Stocks), January 22, 2026​

Rotation to Cyclicals and Commodities Intensifies, Fueled by Defensive Unwind

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Executive Summary

Market Tone: The current environment is characterized by a clear rotation-driven, pro-risk bias, with capital flowing aggressively into cyclical and commodity-linked sectors, funded by outflows from defensive and rate-sensitive areas. While breadth is positive, leadership is uneven and shows signs of maturity and extension in several key themes.

Key Themes & Sector Dynamics

• Primary Leadership (Risk-On):

  • Energy (XLE) & Materials (XLB) are the dominant leaders, showing high INSTAT readings, strong momentum (1M, YTD), and broad-based accumulation—indicating sustained cyclical demand rather than short-term squeezes.

  • Consumer Discretionary (XLY) exhibits mature leadership with high INSTAT but more modest 1M gains, suggesting a digestion phase after prior advances.

• Mixed/Selective Leadership:

  • Technology (XLK) & Communications (XLC) display significant internal dispersion. While sector ETFs show only moderate strength, a narrow cohort of AI, semiconductor, and platform leaders exhibits extreme positive momentum, pointing to late-stage extension in specific growth pockets rather than a broad sector breakout.

  • Consumer Staples (XLP) acts as a “quality carry” defensive, with positive but less aggressive flows.

• Clear Laggards (Funding Sources):

  • Financials (XLF), Utilities (XLU), and Real Estate (XLRE) are in clear distribution or repair phases, characterized by negative INSTAT and weak short-term performance. These sectors are seeing capital exit as investors de-risk from traditional bond proxies and yield-sensitive areas.

Critical Observations & Anomalies

1. Extension Risk in Leaders: Several pro-risk sectors and individual stocks (notably in Energy, Materials, and select Tech/AI names) show extreme INSTAT readings (90-100) paired with double-digit 1M returns, warranting monitoring for potential exhaustion or volatility spikes.

2. Severe Weakness in Defensives: Utilities and Real Estate are under intense structural pressure, with deeply negative INSTAT. Any mean-reversion bounce here is likely contingent on a shift in macro rate expectations.

3. Rich Relative Value Opportunities: High dispersion within most sectors—between extreme leaders and deep laggards—creates significant potential for rotational trades and contrarian mean-reversion plays.

Regional Highlights

• Canada: Exhibits a constructive, resource-driven risk-on tone. Leadership is concentrated in gold/uranium miners, energy producers, and major banks, all showing high INSTAT and strong momentum. Laggards are limited to rate-sensitive growth names (e.g., LULU).

• Mexico & South America: Display broad, strong risk-on inflows. Leadership is anchored in Mexican domestic demand/nearshoring plays and across Brazilian/Latin American financials, commodities, and consumer/airline names. Most regional constituents show high INSTAT and powerful momentum, placing the region in a firmly bullish regime.

Actionable Implications

• Positioning: The tape favors cyclical and commodity exposure (Energy, Materials), with highly selective participation in extended Tech/AI leaders. Reduce exposure to traditional defensives (Utilities, REITs) and lagging Financials.

• Monitoring: Watch for:

  • Signs of momentum exhaustion in extended Energy, Materials, and AI-related stocks.

  • Potential contrarian setups in deeply oversold Utilities/REITs or correcting growth names (e.g., select Software, Healthcare), should macro conditions stabilize.

  • Continued strength in Latin American and Canadian resource/financial equities as proxies for global cyclical and EM risk appetite.

Analysis of Capital Flows Between Sectors

The sector tape leans pro‑risk with a clear tilt toward cyclical and commodity leadership, but with uneven breadth and some defensive drag. The strongest sector‐level INSTAT readings cluster in Energy (XLE), Materials (XLB), Consumer Discretionary (XLY), and key defensives like Consumer Staples (XLP), while Financials (XLF), Utilities (XLU), and Real Estate (XLRE) sit in repair or outright distribution regimes. One‑month performance skew favors Energy, Materials, and Staples, with Technology (XLK) and Communication Services (XLC) lagging on 1M despite still constructive intermediate IN profiles.​

Risk‑on appetite is most evident in Energy and Materials, where high IN, strong 1M, and positive YTD/1Y confirm sustained accumulation rather than a short‑squeeze profile. Consumer Discretionary shows a more mature up‑phase: strong INSTAT and supportive 1D/1W, but only modest 1M gains, suggesting digestion after a prior advance. By contrast, Utilities and Real Estate combine negative 1D/1W with very weak INSTAT, pointing to ongoing de‑risking out of classic bond‑proxies despite still‑positive 1M in parts of Utilities.​

Breadth across cyclicals is broadly positive, but dispersion is rising, especially in Technology and Communications where several mega‑cap and high‑beta names show extreme positive INSTAT while the sector ETFs (XLK/XLC) themselves carry only mid‑range scores and negative 1M trends. This mix argues for late‑stage extension in a subset of growth leaders, rather than a clean sector‑wide breakout. Overall, the sector tape reads as a rotation‑driven risk‑on environment: capital rotates into Energy, Materials, and select growth/AI/thematic pockets, funded in part by defensives and yield proxies.​

Sector leaders and laggards – bullets

• Clear leaders – pro‑risk / cyclical

  • Energy (XLE): High INSTAT near the top of the sector stack, strong 1M and YTD; broad energy complex shows repeated 90–100 INSTAT prints in key constituents.​

  • Materials (XLB): Elevated INSTAT with robust 1M trend, supported by strong moves in metals, gold, and chemicals names.​

  • Consumer Discretionary (XLY): High INSTAT, modest but positive 1M and supportive YTD; more of a mature leadership/rally digestion than early‑phase breakout.​

• Secondary leaders – select growth / quality

  • Technology (XLK): Mid‑range INSTAT with negative 1M at the ETF level, but multiple mega‑cap semi/AI names show extreme positive INSTAT and very strong 1M/1Y profiles, keeping the complex in a net‑constructive stance.​

  • Communication Services (XLC): Similar pattern to Technology; ETF INSTAT is only moderate, but individual platforms and content names carry high IN/INSTAT, leaving the group Neutral/Mixed with pockets of extension.​

  • Consumer Staples (XLP): Positive INSTAT and solid 1M, but style is more “quality carry” than high‑beta risk.​

• Clear laggards – defensive / funding sources

  • Financials (XLF): Negative INSTAT with weak 1W/1M; several large banks and diversified financials show negative INSTAT despite still‑positive 1Y trends, indicating distribution after prior runs.​

  • Utilities (XLU): Deeply negative INSTAT with negative 1D/1W, only marginal 1M; classic “defensive unwind” as capital exits yield proxies.​

  • Real Estate (XLRE): INSTAT at the bottom of the sector stack with negative 1W and only modest 1M; sector remains in a structural repair phase.​

Sector‑level anomalies to tag (Data Group 1)

Extended leaders

• Energy (XLE): “Strongly Bullish, extended – INSTAT high‑90s with ~10% 1M and strong 1Y; watch for exhaustion in high‑beta energy names even as the ETF trend remains intact.”​

• Materials (XLB): “Strongly Bullish, extended – INSTAT mid‑80s with high single‑digit 1M; underlying metals and gold producers show multi‑month momentum and clustering of 90–100 INSTAT prints.”​

• Consumer Discretionary (XLY): “Moderately Bullish, extended – INSTAT mid‑90s with positive but slower 1M; leadership looks mature with more rotation within the sector than fresh inflows.”​

• Select sector proxies in Staples (XLP): “Quality carry – INSTAT low‑80s, mid‑single‑digit 1M; extended but still supported by defensive bid.”​

Deep laggards

• Financials (XLF): “Strongly Bearish / repair – INSTAT negative, 1M negative; banks and diversified financials show ongoing distribution after strong 1Y.”​

• Utilities (XLU): “Strongly Bearish – INSTAT around −50 with negative 1D/1W and flat 1M; classic de‑rating of rate‑sensitive yield proxies.”​

• Real Estate (XLRE): “Strongly Bearish – INSTAT near −50 with negative 1W and only modest 1M; pricing in structural rate and credit risk.”​

Potential contrarian ideas

• Utilities (XLU): “Contrarian watch – negative AT/ST and very weak INSTAT, but small positive 1M; any macro rate relief could trigger a sharp mean‑reversion bounce.”​

• Real Estate (XLRE): “Contrarian watch – INSTAT deeply negative, yet 1M has stabilized slightly above the worst levels; monitor high‑quality REITs with improving micro stories.”​

• Financials (XLF): “Selective contrarian – negative INSTAT and weak 1M, but some brokers/asset managers show positive IN and improving 1M; breadth improving ahead of price at the margin.”​

Analysis of Capital Flows Within Sectors

Across the 12 sector slices, the internal tape shows strong dispersion: many sectors host both extreme leaders (INSTAT 90–100 with 1M ≥ 10%) and deep laggards (INSTAT ≤ −80), creating rich relative‑value and mean‑reversion opportunity. Energy and Materials have the cleanest pro‑risk leadership, with broad clusters of high‑INSTAT names, while Utilities, Real Estate, and several defensive/legacy growth pockets (e.g., select Healthcare and Financials) host the densest concentration of deep negatives. Technology and Communications are dominated by a narrow group of AI/semis and platform leaders at extreme INSTAT, with a long tail of structurally impaired or correcting names.​

Within Energy, capital is rotating aggressively into integrateds, services, and high‑beta E&Ps with repeated 100 INSTAT prints and double‑digit 1M returns, while a few legacy laggards still trade with negative INSTAT despite positive 1M. Materials show similar behavior in metals, fertilizers, and uranium, where multi‑period strength and very high INSTAT confirm sustained accumulation. In contrast, Utilities and Real Estate are characterized by negative AT/ST and low or negative IN, combined with negative 1M in many names, consistent with structural de‑rating rather than tactical volatility.​

Growth and AI‑related names in Technology and Communications exhibit some of the most extreme momentum/extension signals on the sheet (INSTAT ≥ 90–100 with very strong 1M and 1Y), led by semis, foundries, memory, and hyperscaler‑adjacent infrastructure. At the same time, there is a notable cohort of software and ad‑tech names with negative INSTAT and negative 1M despite still‑positive 1Y, signaling a phase‑down from prior exuberance. Consumer groups (Discretionary and Staples) show a split tape: big‑box, dollar stores, and select QSR/auto names are extended leaders, while other retail, apparel, and packaged food names remain in repair.​

Within‑sector leaders and laggards – bullets

Energy (slice 2)

• Leaders – “pro‑risk cyclical”

  • Baker Hughes (BKR), Devon Energy (DVN), Phillips 66 (PSX), Slb (SLB), Exxon Mobil (XOM), Energy Transfer (ET): INSTAT ~98–100 with strong 1M and 1Y; classic trend‑following energy leadership.​

  • High‑beta E&Ps such as Comstock (CRK), Coterra (CTRA), and Ramaco (METC) show very strong 1M/1Y and INSTAT in the mid‑ to high‑90s.​

• Laggards – “repair / risk of value‑trap”

  • Centrus Energy (LEU) and Kosmos (KOS) display very elevated 1M but extremely volatile 1Y and negative INSTAT/IN in places; risk of blow‑off/mean‑reversion.​

  • Several integrated majors (e.g., Shell, EQNR) show weak AT/ST, modest 1M, and only low‑positive INSTAT, indicating relative lag within the energy complex.​

Materials (slice 3)

• Leaders – “commodity / metal bid”

  • MP Materials (MP), Chemours (CC), ASP Isotopes (ASPI), Southern Copper (SCCO), Nucor (NUE), and gold/metal names like Alcoa (AA) and Rio Tinto (RIO) show strong 1M and 1Y with high INSTAT.​

  • Construction/aggregates (MLM, VMC) and specialty chemicals (ECL, CTVA) also carry 90–100 INSTAT with solid 1M.​

• Laggards – “idiosyncratic repair”

  • Air Products (APD), Huntsman (HUN), and Dow (DOW) show positive 1M but depressed INSTAT due to longer‑term drawdowns and negative AT/ST.​

  • Some diversified materials (DD) retain negative INSTAT despite improved 1M, suggesting incomplete repair.​

Industrials (slice 4)

• Leaders – “quality compounders / aero‑defense”

  • Names such as Caterpillar (CAT), TransDigm (TDG), Northrop Grumman (NOC), L3Harris (LHX), Eaton (ETN), Quanta (PWR), and MasTec (MTZ) show high INSTAT with strong 1M and 1Y; classic quality cyclicals in trend.​

  • Logistics and infrastructure plays like Waste Management (WM), Vertiv (VRT), and GE Vernova (GEV) also screen as strong leaders.​

• Laggards – “rate‑sensitive / late‑cycle”

  • Airlines (DAL, UAL), some transports, and select industrial services show negative INSTAT with weak 1M, confirming a more fragile late‑cycle industrial bid.​

  • General Electric (GE Aerospace) shows negative 1M and very negative AT/ST despite prior outperformance, hinting at a distribution phase.​

Utilities (slice 5) and Real Estate (slice 6)

• Leaders – “tactical outliers in a weak tape”

  • NEE, EXC, CEG, and selected yield names retain positive IN and mid‑range INSTAT with positive 1M, standing out against sector‑wide weakness.​

  • In REITs, data‑center names (EQIX, DLR), storage (EXR, PSA), and selected specialty REITs (IRM, CBRE) show positive 1M and mid‑positive INSTAT.​

• Laggards – “deep defensives unwind”

  • PCG, AEP, SO, and SRE in Utilities carry very negative INSTAT with negative 1M/1W; similar dynamic in REITs such as CCI, SBAC, AVB, EQR, and multiple residential/office REITs.​

Consumers, Healthcare, Financials, Tech, Comm (slices 7–12)

• Leaders

  • Consumer Discretionary: CVNA, RCL, AZO, EBAY, ULTA, HD peers, and select housing/retail names show high INSTAT with strong 1M.​

  • Consumer Staples: WMT, PM, KO, CELH, ADM, BJ, and big‑box/dollar names (DG, DLTR) display strong 1M and elevated INSTAT, though some are in later‑stage extension.​

  • Healthcare: LLY, CCJ‑style growth analogs (e.g., DXCM, ILMN, CAH, CVS, GILD) show high INSTAT and strong 1M/1Y; biotech/life‑science names are more mixed.​

  • Financials: asset managers (BLK), brokers (IBKR, SCHW), and select banks (BMO, RY, BNS – cross‑listed but in Financials slice) post high INSTAT; crypto‑adjacent and alt‑asset names are more volatile.​

  • Technology & Communications: MU, INTC, AMD, ASML, NVDA, AVGO, AMD‑adjacent names, plus platform leaders (GOOG, META) show extreme positive INSTAT; many print 100 with high multi‑period returns.​

• Laggards

  • Healthcare: Pfizer (PFE) is neutral but a cohort including ABT, IART, ZTS, and some med‑tech names show very negative INSTAT and weak 1M, reflecting de‑rating.​

  • Financials: KKR, BX, MS, and several insurers (PGR, MET) carry negative INSTAT despite positive 1Y, indicating ongoing de‑risking.​

  • Tech/Comm: ADBE, INTU, CRM, ORCL, PLTR, TTD, SNAP/streaming‑adjacent names show negative INSTAT with negative 1M; classic post‑hype correction.​

Within‑sector anomalies to tag (Data Group 2)

Extended leaders (momentum/extension)

• Energy

  • Baker Hughes (BKR), Phillips 66 (PSX), Devon (DVN), Energy Transfer (ET), Exxon (XOM): “Strongly Bullish, extended – INSTAT near 100 with strong 1M and 1Y; monitor for exhaustion and gap risk.”​

  • High‑beta: Carvana (CVNA) in Discretionary, Ramaco (METC) and ASP Isotopes (ASPI) in Materials, and several uranium/precious‑metals names show INSTAT ~95–100 with 1M ≥ 20–30%.​

• Materials / Metals / Gold

  • MP, SCCO, AA, WPM, FNV, AEM, CCJ, KGC: “Strongly Bullish, extended – persistent high INSTAT with double‑digit 1M and very strong 1Y; trend‑following flows dominant.”​

• Tech / AI / Semis

  • Micron (MU), Intel (INTC), AMD, ASML, Applied Materials (AMAT), selected AI infrastructure (ANET, AVGO peers): “Strongly Bullish, extended – INSTAT 100 with very strong 1M and 1Y; late‑stage momentum complex.”​

• Consumer and Healthcare quality

  • Costco (COST), PM, KO, CELH, LLY, CVS, IBKR, BMO, TD, BNS, BLK: “Strongly Bullish – INSTAT high with consistent multi‑period uptrends; quality compounders with crowded long characteristics.”​

Deep laggards / structural risk

• Defensives and yield proxies

  • PCG, SRE, SO, DUK, AEP, CCI, SBAC, AVB, EQR, multiple REITs with INSTAT around −80 to −100 and negative 1M/1W: “Strongly Bearish – structural de‑rating, persistent distribution; avoid chasing yield.”​

• Healthcare / legacy growth

  • ABT, IART, ZTS, PF‑adjacent, and some med‑tech names: “Strongly Bearish – INSTAT ≤ −80 with negative 1M and 1W; no evidence of durable base yet.”​

• Financials and alt‑assets

  • KKR, BX, some crypto‑adjacent financials, plus COIN with INSTAT ≤ −80 and negative 1M: “Risk‑off in leveraged and beta‑heavy financials; deep laggards even against still‑firm long‑term returns.”​

Potential contrarian candidates

• Utilities & REITs

  • NEE, EXC, ES, some infrastructure REITs (PLD, PSA, EXR): “Contrarian watch – negative AT/ST at the sector level but positive IN and 1M in selected names; breadth improving ahead of price.”​

• Growth corrections

  • ADBE, INTU, CRM, ORCL, TTD, PLTR, ABT, select Healthcare/Software: “Contrarian watch – negative INSTAT with improving recent returns or stabilizing 1M; candidates for bounce if macro and rates stabilize.”​

• Financials

  • BAC, JPM, WFC, MS: “Contrarian rotation – negative or low INSTAT with modestly improving 1M and still‑solid 1Y; scope for catch‑up if risk sentiment broadens.”​

Analysis of Capital Flows in Canadian Stocks

The Canada (US trading) slice shows a constructive, risk‑on tone anchored by resource and financial leadership, with notable extension in gold/uranium and select pipelines, offset by a small cluster of structural laggards in rate‑sensitive and growth‑at‑risk names. Slice‑level means for 1M and INSTAT skew positive: multiple names carry INSTAT in the high‑90s with double‑digit 1M and strong 1Y, especially in gold, energy, and banks, leaving the slice broadly Moderately to Strongly Bullish. Dispersion is nonetheless meaningful: a few communications/IT and asset‑management names retain negative INSTAT and weak 1M despite the supportive macro backdrop.​

Leadership is concentrated in commodity levered names and the major banks. Agnico Eagle (AEM), Wheaton (WPM), Franco‑Nevada (FNV), Cameco (CCJ), and Kinross (KGC) all exhibit very strong 1M/1Y returns and extremely high INSTAT (often near 100), while oil levered names such as Suncor (SU), Cenovus (CVE), and Imperial Oil (IMO) also print high INSTAT. On the financial side, Royal Bank (RY), TD, BMO, BNS, CM, and Brookfield‑related entities (to a lesser degree) show positive INSTAT and supportive 1M, confirming global demand for Canadian financials.​

Laggards are mostly rate‑sensitive or structurally challenged growth names. Lululemon (LULU) displays sharply negative 1M and very negative INSTAT despite prior outperformance, while Brookfield Asset Management (BAM) and CGI (GIB) show negative INSTAT with weak 1M despite solid long‑term records. Telecommunications (TU, BCE, RCI) sit in a Neutral/Mixed zone: 1M is positive, INSTAT is mid‑range, but longer‑term performance and flows look less compelling versus resource and bank leaders.​

Canadian leaders and laggards – bullets

• Leaders – “resource and financial bid”

  • Metals and gold: AEM, WPM, FNV, CCJ, KGC – very high INSTAT with strong 1M and 1Y; core trend‑following longs.​

  • Energy: SU, CVE, IMO, PBA, TRP – solid 1M/YTD, elevated INSTAT; pipelines in particular screen as high‑quality carry.​

  • Banks: RY, TD, BMO, BNS, CM – positive IN and INSTAT, mid‑single‑digit 1M, strong 1Y; classic “quality financial” leadership.​

• Laggards – “growth / rate‑sensitive repair”

  • LULU – negative 1M/1W with very negative INSTAT despite strong 1Y; clear de‑rating after a long run.​

  • BAM, GIB – negative INSTAT, negative 1M; underperformance versus global peers, reflecting both macro and idiosyncratic concerns.​

  • Select communications and telcos (TU, BCE, RCI) – modestly positive 1M but only mid‑range INSTAT; lag on a relative basis.​

Canadian anomalies to tag (Data Group 3)

Extended leaders

• Canada – Agnico Eagle Mines (AEM), Franco‑Nevada (FNV), Wheaton Precious Metals (WPM), Cameco (CCJ), Kinross Gold (KGC)

  • “Strongly Bullish, extended – INSTAT ~100 with very strong 1M and 1Y; classic trend trades in gold/uranium; monitor for volatility spikes.”​

• Canada – Suncor (SU), Cenovus (CVE), Imperial Oil (IMO), Pembina (PBA), TC Energy (TRP)

  • “Strongly Bullish – high INSTAT, strong 1M and 1Y; energy and midstream leadership anchored in free‑cash‑flow and yield.”​

• Canada – Banks: Royal Bank (RY), TD, BMO, BNS, CM

  • “Moderately Bullish, extended – INSTAT high with positive 1M and strong 1Y; flows confirm Canada as a financial safe‑haven tilt.”​

Deep laggards

• Canada – Lululemon (LULU)

  • “Strongly Bearish / de‑rating – INSTAT ≤ −80 with negative 1M and 1W despite a strong 1Y; risk of further multiple compression.”​

• Canada – Brookfield Asset Management (BAM), CGI (GIB)

  • “Bearish, structural risk – negative INSTAT and weak 1M; underperforming global peers, suggesting persistent outflows.”​

Potential contrarian ideas

• Canada – Telus (TU), BCE (BCE), Rogers (RCI)

  • “Contrarian watch – defensive telcos with mid‑range INSTAT and positive 1M; negative sentiment has eased and carry improves if rates stabilize.”​

• Canada – Waste Connections (WCN)

  • “Contrarian watch – negative INSTAT but improving recent returns; high‑quality defensive with potential for re‑rating on macro wobble.”​

• Canada – Brookfield Corp (BN)

  • “Contrarian watch – negative INSTAT with modestly positive 1M; micro catalysts could drive catch‑up versus domestic banks.”​

Analysis of Capital Flows in Mexican and South American Stocks

The Mexico and South America slice is strongly risk‑on, with broad, high‑intensity inflows into Mexican consumer, infrastructure, and airports, and an even more aggressive bid across Brazilian/LatAm financials, utilities, airlines, and e‑commerce. Slice‑level means for 1M and INSTAT in both Mexico (rows 437–446) and South America (447–464) are elevated; many names print INSTAT close to 100 with high double‑digit 1M and solid 1Y, placing these segments squarely in the Strongly Bullish regime.​

Within Mexico, the leadership is anchored in nearshoring, domestic demand, and quality defensives. Wal‑Mart de Mexico (WMMVF), airport operators ASR and PAC, FEMSA (FMX), Coca‑Cola Femsa (KOF), Cemex (CX), and Grupo Bimbo (GRBMF) all print high INSTAT with strong 1M and robust 1Y. América Móvil (AMX) shows a more mixed picture (positive INSTAT but weaker 1M trend), putting it in Neutral/Mixed despite its size.​

South America is even more skewed towards momentum/extension. Petrobras (PBR), Ambev (ABEV), Itaú (ITUB), Ecopetrol (EC), Santander Brasil (BSBR), Credicorp (BAP), Telefônica Brasil (VIV), Banco de Chile (BCH), Banco Bradesco (BBD), LATAM Airlines (LTM), Embraer (EMBJ), MercadoLibre (MELI), SABESP (SBS), Gerdau (GGB), and Eletrobras (AXIA) show high to extreme INSTAT with strong 1M and 1Y. A few names (SUZ, some utilities) screen more Neutral due to softer 1M despite positive long‑term trends.​

Mexico and South America leaders/laggards – bullets

• Mexico leaders – “domestic demand and nearshoring”

  • WMMVF, ASR, PAC, FMX, KOF, CX, GRBMF: high INSTAT, strong 1M and 1Y; broad confirmation of investor appetite for Mexico’s domestic plays and infrastructure.​

• Mexico laggards / neutrals

  • AMX: positive INSTAT but only modest 1M; large‑cap defensive lagging higher‑beta domestic winners.​

• South America leaders – “broad EM risk‑on”

  • Financials: ITUB, BBD, BSBR, BCH, BAP – INSTAT near 100, strong 1M and 1Y; clear leadership within global EM financials.​

  • Energy/commodities: PBR, EC, GGB, AXIA, SBS – strong 1M and high INSTAT; combination of value and cyclical beta.​

  • Consumer/airlines/tech: ABEV, VIV, LTM, EMBJ, MELI – high INSTAT and strong 1M/1Y; classic EM growth/beta complex.​

• South America laggards

  • SUZ (Suzano) and a few lower‑beta utilities show only modest 1M and lower INSTAT; relative laggards within an otherwise very strong regional tape.​

Mexico and South America anomalies to tag (Data Group 4)

Extended leaders

• Mexico – WMMVF, ASR, PAC, FMX, KOF, CX, GRBMF

  • “Strongly Bullish, extended – INSTAT ~100 with high‑teens 1M and strong 1Y; building nearshoring/domestic‑demand theme; watch for event‑driven volatility.”​

• South America – ITUB, BBD, BSBR, BCH, BAP, VIV

  • “Strongly Bullish, extended – INSTAT near 100 with strong 1M and 1Y; EM financials/core credit proxies in momentum regimes.”​

• South America – PBR, EC, GGB, AXIA, SBS, MELI, LTM, EMBJ, ABEV

  • “Strongly Bullish, extended – high INSTAT with multi‑period strength; combination of value, energy, infrastructure, and growth/airline beta.”​

Deep laggards

• Mexico – none obvious at current parameters; most names show positive INSTAT and strong 1M, with AMX only modestly weaker.​

• South America – SUZ and a small handful of lower‑beta names: “Mild laggards – positive long‑term trends but softer 1M; not structurally broken, but no urgency to add.”​

Potential contrarian ideas

• Mexico – América Móvil (AMX)

  • “Contrarian watch – positive INSTAT and decent 1Y but softer 1M versus high‑beta peers; potential catch‑up if EM beta pauses and investors rotate to liquid defensives.”​

• South America – Suzano (SUZ)

  • “Contrarian watch – neutral INSTAT, modest 1M; could benefit from further commodity up‑cycle and Brazil re‑rating, but currently overshadowed by higher‑beta leaders.”​