UK, Europe and the Middle East Report
In the European region, weekly market breadth widens, but today was non-commital due to the Trump-Zalensky-European Leaders summit in DC
Processing note: Due to issues with Anthropic/Claude, I used the ChatGPT-5 AI platform for this report today. Doing so meant several hours in refitting the prompt. Still, except that I could not implement my scoring matrix today (I will in tomorrow’s Asia, Asia-Pacific, and Australia report), I am relatively pleased with the first effort. ChatGPT was unable to do this report, so that’s a win. As we advance, I will enhance the prompt, always pushing these AI platforms to their limits.
August 18, 2025
Today’s Standouts
Top 3 Daily performers
Elbit Systems (ESLT.TA) — Last $157,900.00 — 1D +2.98%
Evolution AB (EVOG.ST) — Last $847.60 — 1D +2.94%
Adyen NV (ADYEN.AS) — Last $1,435.20 — 1D +2.78%
Bottom 3 Daily performers
Boliden AB (BOL.ST) — $310.30 — 1D -3.93%
Glencore PLC (GLEN.L) — $288.25 — 1D -3.84%
Daimler Truck (DTGGe) — $40.66 — 1D -1.81%
Top 3 Weekly performers
Teva (TEVA.TA) — $6,172.00 — 1W +9.92%
Fresenius (FREG) — $46.61 — 1W +6.42%
AstraZeneca (AZN.L) — $11,738.00 — 1W +6.36%
Bottom 3 Weekly performers
NICE (NICE.TA) — $45,760.00 — 1W -9.57%
Nova (NVMI.TA) — $87,400.00 — 1W -7.99%
LSEG (LSEG.L) — $9,238.00 — 1W -6.71%
Anomalies:
Daily downside: Boliden, Glencore.
Weekly: Teva’s +9.92% surge and NICE’s -9.57% slide flagged.
Monthly: Deutsche Bank +21.5% and Adidas -18.9% highlight sector extremes.
Technical Signals
Without AT/INV scoring included (for today only), intraday momentum tracking is unavailable. Still, breadth shows clear trends:
Weekly leaders (≥ +5%): Teva, AstraZeneca, Fresenius, Ashtead, Merck DE.
Weekly laggards (≤ -5%): NICE, Nova, LSEG, Straumann, SAP.
The divergence between pharma and stock exchanges (London) is critical: healthcare stocks are exhibiting trend persistence, while exchanges (LSEG) and consumer names (Adidas) face supply pressure.
Volatility clusters around anomalies: outsized monthly moves suggest sector/industry rotation risk. For tactical traders, this is a cue to watch for mean-reversion plays in laggards and continuation setups in leaders.
4. Investment Considerations
Since formal scoring is not available, these are considerations, not firm signals:
Opportunity Watch: Weekly +5% to +10% gains in pharma and industrials could extend if momentum persists. Teva and AstraZeneca are outperforming with catalysts (drug pipelines, defensive flows).
Risk Watch: NICE (-9.6%), Nova (-8.0%), and LSEG (-6.7%) raise questions about valuation and earnings sensitivity. Investors should monitor whether weakness accelerates.
Monthly Extremes: Deutsche Bank (+21.5%) and Adidas (-18.9%) illustrate opposite ends of sector rotation. Extreme positive momentum often attracts profit-taking; extreme negative performance could attract value buyers but carries risk.
Balanced View: Roughly half the list shows constructive weekly trends, but persistent underperformers remain a drag. Position sizing and diversification are key until momentum and valuations align.
5. Bill Cara’s Perspective
Europe’s watchlist reveals two-tier markets: resilient healthcare and selective financials versus pressured discretionary and exchanges. Pharma (Teva, AstraZeneca, Fresenius) remains the standout group, supported by defensive capital flows amid macro uncertainty. These names anchor regional strength, offsetting weakness in discretionary (Adidas, Lindt) and financial infrastructure (LSEG).
The rotation signals are worth close monitoring. Deutsche Bank’s +21.5% month may indicate a catch-up rally among lenders, but sustainability is questionable if macro headwinds persist. Conversely, Adidas’ -18.9% drop signals brand and margin risks in consumer cyclicals.
Investors should note the breadth imbalance: 82 weekly gainers vs. 40 losers indicates improving risk appetite. But anomalies — especially NICE (-9.6%) and LSEG (-6.7%) — remind us of pockets of structural weakness.
Strategically, this market favors selectivity and discipline. Healthcare is the clearest area of strength; consumer discretionary is weak and carries a higher risk. Financials and industrials are mixed — Deutsche Bank and CRH outperform, while exchanges underperform.
My advice is to treat the considerations as alerts: monitor momentum leaders for signs of exhaustion, and watch laggards for potential reversals. Until the AT/INV/Total scores are populated and meaningful, investors should exercise caution in scaling positions, relying on percentage-based anomalies as tactical triggers.