The World’s Best Equity Market? The Data Tell a Different Story
A fiduciary’s look at 28 global equity indexes shows the S&P 500 trailing from 1 month to 3 years — facts, not politics.
When a sitting president tells a live audience that the US market has never been stronger and the S&P 500 is “leading the world,” it sounds compelling. But numbers don’t campaign — they calculate.
This morning, prior to the open, I listened to President Trump boast about the US S&P 500. I have the data so I checked it. Here are the facts, based on daily tracking of 28 leading equity markets worldwide, through yesterday’s close.
Where the S&P 500 Actually Ranks
Over the past month, the S&P 500 gained +9.3% — solid, but behind Brazil (+18.4%), Japan (+15.7%), Poland (+12.9%), Italy (+12.5%), and Turkey and Sweden (+11.0% each).
Year to date, the S&P is up +3.9%. That’s the 17th best performance out of 28. Meanwhile, nine markets are up over 11.1%, including South Korea (+50.6%), Brazil (+33.6%), Turkey (+28.6%), Taiwan (+27.1%), and Israel (+22.0%).
One Year, Three Years: Still Not #1
Even over one year — a period the administration often takes credit for — the S&P’s +34.5% ranks only 10th. Poland, Spain, and Canada have all done better.
Over three years, the S&P’s +72.0% is impressive. But it ranks 9th, behind:
Turkey (+189.0%)
Israel (+158.7%)
South Korea (+149.4%)
Taiwan (+135.9%)
Japan (+107.3%)
Spain (+93.9%)
Poland (+92.9%)
Brazil (+90.4%)
The Currency Factor (This Matters)
If an American invests in those foreign markets and converts back to USD, currency movements matter — a lot.
Over the past three years, the US dollar has weakened against most major currencies. Of 18 international currencies tracked:
11 of 18 have strengthened against the USD over YTD
12 of 18 over one year
11 of 18 over three years
Gold has been the runaway leader against the dollar and all currencies in every timeframe.
For US investors who put money into equity markets of countries like Switzerland, Sweden, the UK, or the Eurozone, net gains — including currency — were even stronger than the local market returns alone.
The Bottom Line
The S&P 500 has delivered strong absolute returns. But “leading the world”? Not by any objective measure — not over one month, YTD, one year, or three years.
In investing, there’s no half-truth. There’s a bid and an offer. A gain or a loss. And data that either supports a claim — or doesn’t.
These aren’t political opinions. They’re spreadsheets.