The Gold Bull Isn’t Dead. It’s Just Getting Started
A sharp Friday sell-off has the doomsayers crowing. But history teaches us that gold thrives on the very uncertainty that defines our era. This isn’t a time for fear; it’s a time for clarity
The air got let out of the precious metals market in a hurry on Friday, October 17, 2025. Headlines blared about dramatic drops: Santacruz Silver Mining (SCZMF.PK) down -14.59%. Royal Gold (RGLD) off -10.33%. A slew of other gold and silver miners fell by over 8% in a single session.
Predictably, the usual doomsayer media pounced, declaring the long-running Precious Metals Bull market over. It’s a familiar playbook: amplify fear to provoke impulsive, emotionally driven trading.
But as I argued in my weekly Global Navigator Report, this is precisely the moment for patience and historical perspective, not panic. A deeper analysis reveals that Friday’s plunge was a short-term correction within a bull market that is fueled by the most durable engine of all: profound and persistent global instability.
Gold’s Secret: It Rises When the World Feels Unsafe
Conventional wisdom says gold is only an inflation hedge. History, however, tells a more profound story: gold rises during periods of both inflation and deflation. Its true value is as a barometer for confidence in the financial and political order. When that confidence wanes, gold waxes.
Look at the past century. The price of gold increased during the depths of the Great Depression—a deflationary collapse. Now, look at the relentless parade of crises in our own lifetime:
The Y2K Scare: Fears of a systemic clock failure led central banks to flood the system with liquidity, distorting asset prices and undermining faith in systemic stability.
The Global Financial Crisis: The very foundations of the banking system were called into question.
The COVID-19 Pandemic: Millions died, supply chains shattered, and normal life was suspended, creating a global-scale disruption.
The Trump Tariffs: The introduction of widespread international tariffs disrupted the normal flow of trade, creating economic uncertainty.
The Russian Invasion of Ukraine: A land war in Europe, compounded by geopolitical missteps, revealed a fragile and dangerous world order.
In every case, the response was not a surge of confidence in traditional assets, but a renewed belief in the timeless value of gold. People attach a sustained value to gold that transcends the cycles of inflation and deflation because it represents safety from the chaos itself.
The Current Unstable Order is Gold’s Fuel
The instability pushing gold higher today is not a temporary glitch; it’s a feature of the current landscape. The fundamental question for investors is not about a single day’s price drop, but this: What could possibly end this period of great uncertainty?
Could it be the political defeat of Donald Trump, potentially bringing an end to the chaos in Washington? Could it be a decisive end to the Russian invasion of Ukraine, restoring stability to Europe? Could it be a new era of global cooperation and predictable trade?
Until we see such a fundamental shift in the macro picture—a restoration of trust in our political and financial systems—people will continue to seek the safety of gold. The current bull market is not just about inflation figures; it’s about a world that feels fundamentally unstable.
Looking Past the Friday Bloodbath to the Resilient Trend
This macro context is why Friday’s sell-off, while sharp, is likely a shakeout. The weekly performance tells the true story of underlying strength:
Avino Silver (ASM) fell -8.49% on Friday but still closed the week up a staggering +17.89%.
Endeavour Silver (EXK) weathered the sell-off to post an +18.28% weekly gain.
This is the hallmark of a healthy bull market taking a breather. The data confirms the resilience:
Exceptional Long-Term Performance: The very stocks that fell hard are up massively YTD: Santacruz Silver (+709.43%), Avino Silver (+573.10%), Royal Gold (+123.01%). One bad day doesn’t erase a bull run.
Unshaken Institutional Confidence: The data shows overwhelmingly strong institutional support. The “smart money” understands the historical context and sees this as an opportunity.
A Call for Conviction, Not Emotion
In the face of volatility, our proprietary Bill Cara’s Perspective provides clear, strategic discipline. Our recommendations reflect a deep understanding of this macro backdrop.
We maintain Strong Buy on leaders like Avino Silver (ASM) and Endeavour Silver (EXK). For others, like Orla Mining (ORLA.K), the advice is to “Buy/Add on Weakness”—explicitly viewing a dip as a entry point in a long-term trend.
The Investor’s Takeaway: Anchor in History
For the long-term investor, the message is clear:
Understand the “Why”: This bull market is driven by deep-seated geopolitical and systemic fears, not fleeting data points. That makes it durable.
Ignore the Noise: Do not let financial media, which profits from your fear, direct your strategy. Friday’s drop is a data point, not the whole story.
See Volatility as an Opportunity: In a bull market founded on uncertainty, pullbacks are chances to add to high-conviction positions.
The Precious Metals Bull market will continue; it is being fueled by the very chaos that defines our era. Until the world finds a stable equilibrium, the case for gold and its miners isn’t just intact—it’s stronger than ever. This shakeout is the ultimate test: will you side with the panic of headline-watchers, or with the conviction of those who understand history? For those who choose the latter, the bull market’s path remains clear.