Your point about the historical link between reserve currency transitions and conflict is noted. However, the 'might is right' calculus has a fundamental modern limit: nuclear weapons. Leaders can threaten Armageddon, but mutually assured destruction makes those threats a bluff. Putin can't nuke London without dooming Moscow; the power base he relies on would be ashes.
The more likely pressure point is domestic. In the US, Congress reflects public sentiment, which is already showing deep displeasure with escalatory actions from this administration. As rhetoric ramps up, so will protests and political constraints. What we're facing isn't necessarily a path to world war, but the potential for a prolonged cold war. I foresee a managed, continuously tense breakdown of diplomacy and cooperation.
As someone who considers myself neutral/cynical in politics, i avoid showing favor for anyone domestically or intl. It would not surprise me if all of them had orgies together. Friends behind doors, frienemies in front of cameras. The main financial point you make cannot be ignored. The smart money is rotating into specific sectors and regions. The potential for USD being dethroned is real. But a transition away from an incumbent reserve never happens without a world war.
Your point about the historical link between reserve currency transitions and conflict is noted. However, the 'might is right' calculus has a fundamental modern limit: nuclear weapons. Leaders can threaten Armageddon, but mutually assured destruction makes those threats a bluff. Putin can't nuke London without dooming Moscow; the power base he relies on would be ashes.
The more likely pressure point is domestic. In the US, Congress reflects public sentiment, which is already showing deep displeasure with escalatory actions from this administration. As rhetoric ramps up, so will protests and political constraints. What we're facing isn't necessarily a path to world war, but the potential for a prolonged cold war. I foresee a managed, continuously tense breakdown of diplomacy and cooperation.
As someone who considers myself neutral/cynical in politics, i avoid showing favor for anyone domestically or intl. It would not surprise me if all of them had orgies together. Friends behind doors, frienemies in front of cameras. The main financial point you make cannot be ignored. The smart money is rotating into specific sectors and regions. The potential for USD being dethroned is real. But a transition away from an incumbent reserve never happens without a world war.
Midterms are coming, and nothing focuses a congressman's mind like the threat of losing their job.