THE CARA PLAYBOOK — February 13, 2026
Post-Market Analysis | Strategic Guidance for Professional Allocators
Playbook Friday:
Yesterday, we declared “The Great Rotation” dead. Today’s price action confirms the autopsy. The S&P 500 broke its 100-day MA with volume, closing at 6,832.76, down -1.6% . The VIX spiked above 20, settling at 20.82 . The “Defensive Hiding” we identified yesterday accelerated into a full-blown “Risk-Off Liquidation” as we closed the week. Capital did not merely hide; it fled. Treasuries and Gold were the only shelters. Our directive to trim defensives and add duration was precisely correct, but the velocity of the unwind demands we go a step further. We are moving from “Defensive Repair” to “Capital Preservation.”
I. SESSION SUMMARY & REGIME ASSESSMENT
The Tape Broke; Credit is Catching Down.
Yesterday’s Call vs. Today’s Reality:
Yesterday we wrote: “If the S&P breaks 6,796 with volume Monday, the correction deepens. We are positioning for the possibility it does not hold.” The market did not wait until Monday. The 100-day MA broke today on elevated volume (22.45B shares vs. 20.78B avg) . This is not a warning; it is the confirmation.
Regime Re-Assessment:
Yesterday (Feb 12): Defensive Hiding. Capital preservation in Utilities/Staples.
Today (Feb 13): Risk-Off Liquidation. Break of key technical level, VIX spike, and—crucially—credit is starting to crack.
