Small-Caps Surge as Rate Cut Bets Fuel Market Highs
Sept. 11: Opendoor and Alibaba lead a dovish rally, but crypto and cloud stocks face algorithmic pressure amid record index gains.
Daily Market Pulse Report from New York
September 11, 2025
Performance Snapshot
(1) Top 3 (1-Day %):
· Opendoor Technologies Inc (OPEN): 78.75%
· Hims Hers Health Inc (HIMS): 8.36%
· Alibaba Group Holdings Ltd ADR (BABA): 7.98%
(2) Bottom 3 (1-Day %):
· Oracle Corporation (ORCL): -6.26%
· Riot Platforms (RIOT): -4.66%
· CoreWeave Inc (CRWV): -3.84%
(3) Top 3 (1-Week %):
· Opendoor Technologies Inc (OPEN): 75.76%
· CoreWeave Inc (CRWV): 28.76%
· Applied Digital Corp (APLD): 19.89%
(4) Bottom 3 (1-Week %):
· Pinterest Inc (PINS): -5.82%
· Starbucks Corporation (SBUX): -5.32%
· SAP SE ADR (SAP): -5.07%
(5) Top 3 (1-Month %):
Opendoor Technologies Inc (OPEN): 324.09%
Riot Platforms (RIOT): 36.71%
UnitedHealth Group (UNH): 35.19%
(6) Bottom 3 (1-Month %):
· CoreWeave Inc (CRWV): -24.28%
· Joby Aviation (JOBY): -24.04%
· MicroStrategy Incorporated (MSTR): -17.34%
Quantitative Anomalies & INSTAT Analysis
The most significant anomalies based on 1-Day vs. 1-Month performance and INSTAT scores are:
Opendoor Technologies Inc (OPEN): 1-Day: 78.75%, 1-Month: 324.09%. These exceed price anomaly thresholds (|1-Day| ≥ 3.0%, |1-Month| ≥ 15%). INSTAT scores (AT: 25, ST: 50, IN: 50, Total: 100) indicate unanimous bullish sentiment across algorithmic, short-term, and institutional metrics. The extreme 1-Month gain signals robust institutional buying, reinforced by algorithmic and short-term momentum, suggesting a strong bullish trend.
Riot Platforms (RIOT): 1-Day: -4.66%, 1-Month: 36.71%. This exceeds price anomaly thresholds (|1-Day| ≥ 3.0%, |1-Month| ≥ 15%). A Bearish Cyclic Alert is triggered (AT negative: -12, ST positive: 37). The negative AT against positive ST suggests algorithmic selling pressure undermining short-term technical strength, indicating potential volatility or a near-term pullback.
CoreWeave Inc (CRWV): 1-Day: -3.84%, 1-Month: -24.28%. This exceeds price anomaly thresholds (|1-Day| ≥ 3.0%, |1-Month| ≥ 15%). A Bearish Cyclic Alert is present (AT negative: -4, ST positive: 37). Lacking IN scores due to recent listing, the negative AT with positive ST indicates algorithmic selling into short-term momentum, potentially signaling a reversal or consolidation.
Bill Cara’s Perspective & Recommendations
The market on September 11, 2025, reflects a broad-based rally fueled by heightened Federal Reserve rate cut expectations, driven by elevated jobless claims and in-line CPI data (Headline: 2.9%, Core: 3.1%), as reported by Reuters.
Major indices, including the S&P 500 (+0.85%) and Nikkei 225 (+1.22%), hit record highs, with small-caps (Russell 2000 +1.8%) outperforming mega-cap tech, per Bloomberg.
This dovish environment favors rate-sensitive sectors, but anomalies and INSTAT scores highlight selective opportunities and risks.
Opendoor Technologies Inc (OPEN) earns a STRONG BUY (AT: 25, ST: 50, IN: 50). Its extraordinary 1-Day (+78.75%) and 1-Month (+324.09%) gains, backed by unanimous positive INSTAT scores, reflect strong housing market demand amid lower borrowing costs, as noted by Financial Times. However, despite missing out on today’s unexpected bounce, its high valuation suggests waiting for a pullback for new entries, aligning with my assessment that OPEN is a desired but expensive holding.
Alibaba Group Holdings Ltd ADR (BABA) is a STRONG BUY (AT: 24, ST: 50, IN: 50). Its 1-Day (+7.98%) and 1-Month (+26.95%) gains, supported by positive INSTAT scores, benefit from China’s stimulus measures boosting tech, per Bloomberg.
Hims Hers Health Inc (HIMS) is an ADD on weakness (AT: 23, ST: 50, IN: 28). Its 1-Day (+8.36%) and 1-Month (+7.94%) performance, with strong ST and IN scores, signals healthcare sector resilience, as reported by Barron’s.
Conversely, Riot Platforms (RIOT) warrants a SELL (AT: -12, ST: 37, IN: 50). The Bearish Cyclic Alert and negative AT outweigh ST positivity, indicating algorithmic exits amid crypto market volatility, per Reuters.
CoreWeave Inc (CRWV) is a TRIM (AT: -4, ST: 37, no IN). Its negative 1-Day (-3.84%) and 1-Month (-24.28%) performance, coupled with a Bearish Cyclic Alert, suggests overvaluation risks in cloud computing, despite short-term momentum.
Oracle Corporation (ORCL) is a HOLD (AT: -4, ST: 37, IN: 50). Despite a significant 1-Day drop (-6.26%), positive ST and IN scores suggest institutional support, but near-term consolidation is likely due to algorithmic selling following a massive gain earlier this week.
For long-term undervalued stocks, Adobe Systems Incorporated (ADBE) and America Movil SAB de CV Mm (AMX) are ADD on pullbacks. ADBE’s negative IN (-50) but modest 1-Month gain (+3.58%) and AMX’s positive INSTAT scores (Total: 100) and 1-Month (+6.03%) align with tech and telecom strength.
Overvalued names like Applied Digital Corp (APLD) and Wheaton Precious Metals Corp (WPM) (Total INSTAT: 100) should be TRIMMED due to stretched valuations, despite strong 1-Month gains (+14.76% and +11.34%).
Rigetti Computing Inc (RGTI), a desired but expensive holding, is a HOLD until a substantial price drop, given its 1-Month (+3.02%) and high Total INSTAT (100).
Risk Assessment: A hawkish Fed cut could disrupt rate-sensitive sectors like real estate (XLRE), with gold (GLD) as a hedge against inflation risks, per TIPS spreads. Small-cap momentum (IWM) requires volume confirmation to sustain. Geopolitical tariff risks favor low-exposure stocks.
Outlook: Monitor the upcoming Fed meeting and jobless claims.
Key levels: SPY support at 6500, resistance at 6600.
Focus screens on high-quality small-caps and low-tariff-exposure stocks.
References
"Fed Rate Cut Expectations Surge After Jobless Claims Data," Reuters, September 11, 2025.
"Small-Caps Outshine Tech as Rate Cut Bets Grow," Bloomberg, September 11, 2025.
"Healthcare Stocks Rally Amid Dovish Fed Outlook," Barron’s, September 10, 2025.
"China’s Stimulus Fuels Alibaba’s Surge," Financial Times, September 11, 2025.
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