Precious Metals Pulse September 4, 2025

Your algorithmic edge for trading gold and silver miners. Cutting through the noise with Bill Cara’s INSTAT analysis

Precious Metals Trading September 4- Goldminers Report

Performance Snapshot:

Top 3 (1-Day %)

• Endeavour Mining Corp (EDVMF) 0.4%

• Franco-Nevada Corporation (FNV) 0.0%

• Torex Gold Resources Inc (TORXF) -0.1%

Bottom 3 (1-Day %)

• Harmony Gold Mining Company Limited (HMY) -7.2%

• Sibanye Gold Ltd ADR (SBSW) -5.7%

• Gold Royalty Corp (GROY) -4.5%

Top 3 (1-Week %)

• GoldMining Inc (GLDG) 14.3%

• DRDGOLD Ltd ADR (DRD) 11.7%

• Santacruz Silv (SCZMF) 12.1%

Bottom 3 (1-Week %)

• Vox Royalty Corp (VOXR) -6.8%

• Triple Flag Precious Metals Corp (TFPM) -1.5%

• Metalla Royalty & Streaming Ltd (MTA) -0.9%

Quantitative Anomalies & INSTAT Analysis:

Three significant anomalies emerge from the goldminers dataset. First, GoldMining Inc (GLDG)’s 1-week gain of 14.3% exceeds the 8.0% threshold, indicating strong short-term momentum. Its INSTAT scores (AT: 11, ST: 60, INV: 200, Total: 260) align with a STRONG BUY scenario, with all components positive, suggesting robust algorithmic and institutional support. Second, Harmony Gold Mining Company Limited (HMY)’s 1-day drop of -7.2% surpasses the 3.0% threshold, signaling potential algorithmic selling. Its INSTAT (AT: -20, ST: -60, INV: 30, Total: -30) triggers a Bearish Trend Alert (ST negative + INV positive), reflecting short-term weakness against long-term institutional holding. Third, Vox Royalty Corp (VOXR)’s 1-week decline of -6.8% exceeds the 8.0% threshold, hinting at bearish sentiment. Its INSTAT (AT: -20, ST: 3, INV: 135, Total: 138) shows a Bullish Cyclic Alert (AT negative + ST positive), suggesting a potential reversal if momentum shifts. These anomalies reflect a market with substantial gains alongside notable volatility.

Bill Cara’s Perspective & Recommendations:

The Goldminers industry group demonstrated resilience on September 4, 2025, moving in concert with a bullish precious metals complex. Gold's push toward $3,500, fueled by rate-cut expectations and geopolitical tensions, provided a strong backdrop. GoldMining Inc. (GLDG) is a standout, with a 14.3% weekly surge and a robust INSTAT Total score of 260, warranting a STRONG BUY recommendation based on high conviction in its momentum and growth trajectory. Endeavour Mining Corp. (EDVMF) also earns a STRONG BUY; its stable daily performance and favorable institutional demand profile (INSTAT: 200) suggest quality backing. While Harmony Gold Mining Company Limited (HMY) fell -7.2%, likely on profit-taking, its positive long-term INV score (30) suggests underlying institutional support, justifying a HOLD. At the same time, we monitor for a potential recovery. DRDGOLD Ltd. (DRD) capitalizes on the gold rally with an 11.7% weekly rise and a solid INSTAT (200), also meriting a STRONG BUY. Conversely, Vox Royalty Corp. (VOXR) is an AVOID; its -6.8% weekly decline and negative AT score reflect an unfavorable near-term risk-reward profile. The industry benefits from structural demand drivers, such as central bank purchasing, although algorithmic trading necessitates a selective approach.

References:

"Gold Nears $3,500 as Central Banks Boost Reserves"; "Goldminers Surge Amid Rate-Cut Hopes"; "Volatility Hits Gold Stocks on Profit-Taking"; "Institutional Bets Drive Goldmining Gains".

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Precious Metals Trading September 4 - Silverminers Report

Performance Snapshot:

Top 3 (1-Day %)

• Coeur Mining Inc (CDE) 0.9%

• NovaGold Resources Inc (NG) 0.8%

• OR Royalties Inc (OR) 0.6%

Bottom 3 (1-Day %)

• Americas Silver Corp (USAS) -5.0%

• GoGold Resources Inc. (GLGDF) -5.0%

• Avino Silver & Gold Mines Ltd (ASM) -5.7%

Top 3 (1-Week %)

• Fresnillo PLC (FNLPF) 15.5%

• McEwen Mining Inc. (MUX) 15.8%

• Santacruz Silv (SCZMF) 12.1%

Bottom 3 (1-Week %)

• Vox Royalty Corp (VOXR) -6.8%

• Americas Silver Corp (USAS) -1.8%

• Endeavour Silver Corp. (EXK) -1.6%

Quantitative Anomalies & INSTAT Analysis:

The Silverminers dataset highlights three key anomalies. First, McEwen Mining Inc (MUX)’s 1-week gain of 15.8% exceeds the 8.0% threshold, reflecting strong short-term momentum. Its INSTAT (AT: 0, ST: 50, INV: 190, Total: 240) supports a STRONG BUY with all components positive or neutral, indicating broad market support. Second, Americas Silver Corp (USAS)’s 1-day drop of -5.0% surpasses the 3.0% threshold, suggesting algorithmic selling pressure. Its INSTAT (AT: -17, ST: 43, INV: 183, Total: 226) triggers a Bullish Trend Alert (ST positive + INV positive), hinting at long-term strength despite short-term weakness. Third, Avino Silver & Gold Mines Ltd (ASM)’s 1-year gain of 389.2% exceeds the 50.0% threshold, showing exceptional growth. However, its INSTAT (AT: -20, ST: 8, INV: 148, Total: 156) indicates a Bearish Cyclic Alert (AT negative + ST positive), suggesting a potential reversal if sentiment improves. These anomalies underscore a sector with high growth potential and volatility.

Bill Cara’s Perspective & Recommendations:

The Silverminers industry group outperformed on September 4, 2025, as silver broke decisively above $40. This move was driven by robust industrial demand and a declining gold-to-silver ratio. McEwen Mining Inc. (MUX) is a primary beneficiary, with a 15.8% weekly gain and a strong INSTAT Total score of 240, earning a STRONG BUY for its leverage to silver's rally, particularly from solar and EV demand. Fresnillo PLC (FNLPF) mirrors this strength with a 15.5% weekly rise and a positive INSTAT (200), also supporting a STRONG BUY as it capitalizes on ongoing supply constraints. We view Americas Silver Corp's (USAS) -5.0% daily drop as a potential entry point; it occurs within the context of a stellar 185.2% yearly gain, and its high INV score (183) indicates firm institutional confidence, recommending a BUY ON WEAKNESS. Coeur Mining Inc. (CDE) warrants a BUY given its stable performance and alignment with broad sector momentum (INSTAT: 200). However, Avino Silver & Gold Mines Ltd. (ASM) is an AVOID; its sharp daily drop and negative AT score suggest near-term headwinds outweigh its impressive longer-term run. Silver's dual demand profile and supply tightness create a compelling backdrop for selective accumulation.

References:

"Silver Surges Past $40 on Industrial Demand"; "Silverminers Outpace Gold Amid Supply Crunch"; "Volatility Tests Silver Stocks’ Resilience"; "Institutional Flows Boost Silver Mining Sector".

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Explaining the Bill Cara INSTAT Framework

The INSTAT model offers a multi-timeframe analysis through three independent scores, providing a consolidated view for various trading styles.

INV (Investor) Score

• Time Horizon: Long-Term (Weeks to Months)

• Range: -150 (Maximum Bearish) to +150 (Maximum Bullish)

• Methodology: Analyzes daily, weekly, and monthly technical indicators (e.g., RSI, MACD) to identify sustained directional trends and institutional accumulation or distribution.

ST (Position Trader) Score

• Time Horizon: Medium-Term / Swing (Days to Weeks)

• Range: -50 (Bearish) to +50 (Bullish)

• Methodology: Focuses on hourly to weekly price action and momentum oscillators to capture cyclical swings within the primary trend.

AT (Algorithmic Trader) Score

• Time Horizon: Short-Term (Intraday to Days)

• Range: -20 (Bearish) to +20 (Bullish)

• Methodology: Tracks intraday technical indicators and order flow to gauge immediate sentiment, often in reaction to news or media-driven events. It is not included in the Total score but is crucial for anomaly analysis.

Total Score: The sum of the INV and ST scores. This provides a core assessment of alignment between medium-term cyclical momentum (ST) and long-term trend strength (INV).

Anomaly Analysis: Divergences between the AT and ST scores (e.g., a negative AT with a positive ST) are used to identify potential early signals of a trend reversal or consolidation, providing critical decision-support beyond the raw Total score.

Delta Calculation: Measures the direction and magnitude of the one-week price momentum change, providing context for the scores' recent movements.