Bill Cara examines the significant impact of US government policy and spending on stock market performance, particularly in 2025. He highlights how decisions related to tariffs, subsidies, and federal contracts can quickly reprice stocks, influencing cash flows and valuations. The analysis focuses on five top-performing NYSE/NASDAQ-listed companies, demonstrating a strong correlation between government involvement and market outperformance for four of them, particularly in sectors like space, critical minerals, and defense. He also discusses the significant surge in Intel's stock (INTC), noting a nearly 20% gain in one week and a 29% rise since August 1. This unexpected rally occurred shortly after President Trump publicly called for the resignation of Intel's CEO. The notes highlight speculation about potential insider trading among Washington DC. politicians. Despite these strong connections and performance, the document notes minimal congressional trading activity has been reported in these government-linked stocks, contrasting with legislators' general market investment outperformance and their preference for broader technology investments. Ultimately, the text suggests that monitoring federal policy and spending can offer insights into potential market outperformers.
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