OPEN's 1-Month +213% Moon Shot Cools as Algos Ring Profit Bell, September 9

Daily INSTAT Alert: RIOT flashes a rare perfect 100, UNH surges 8.6%, and SBUX sinks on consumer woes.

R-88 DAILY Pulse Report September 9, 2025

Performance Snapshot

Top 3 (1-Day %)
Riot Platforms [RIOT] 13.17%
Applied Digital Corp [APLD] 9.27%
UnitedHealth Group [UNH] 8.64%

Bottom 3 (1-Day %)
Quantumscape Corp [QS] -10.17%
Pinterest Inc [PINS] -3.89%
Hims Hers Health Inc [HIMS] -3.85%

Top 3 (1-Week %)
Opendoor Technologies Inc [OPEN] 20.04%
Western Digital Corporation [WDC] 15.42%
Alphabet Inc Class C [GOOG] 13.18%

Bottom 3 (1-Week %)
Starbucks Corporation [SBUX] -6.65%
Diageo PLC ADR [DEO] -5.16%
BHP Group Ltd ADR [BHP] -4.53%

Top 3 (1-Month %)
Opendoor Technologies Inc [OPEN] 213.33%
UnitedHealth Group [UNH] 38.67%
Riot Platforms [RIOT] 37.27%

Bottom 3 (1-Month %)
CoreWeave Inc [CRWV] -22.64%
eToro Group Ltd [ETOR] -21.61%
MicroStrategy Incorporated [MSTR] -16.86%

Executive Summary:
Our systematic screen has identified significant price and momentum anomalies across key sectors, including Real Estate Tech, Healthcare, and Cryptocurrency. Utilizing proprietary INSTAT scoring, which aggregates algorithmic sentiment across Accumulation/Trend (AT), Short-Term Momentum (ST), and Institutional Flow (IN) factors, we provide actionable recommendations. Current signals suggest overweighting high-conviction momentum plays like RIOT, taking a tactical approach to strong performers showing early profit-taking signals (OPEN, UNH), and avoiding names with pervasive negative momentum (SBUX).

• Recommendation: STRONG BUY. A candidate for aggressive, overweight positioning for investors seeking crypto-equity exposure. This is the clearest momentum signal in our current screen. Entry points are necessarily momentum-driven.

Quantitative Anomalies & INSTAT Analysis

1. Opendoor Technologies Inc. (OPEN:NASDAQ)

• Price Action Anomaly: 1-Month: +213.33% | 1-Day: +1.16%

• INSTAT Score: 72 (AT: -24 | ST: 25 | IN: 47)

• Signal Interpretation: Bearish Cyclic Alert. The massive monthly return against a muted daily gain suggests a powerful rally is entering a consolidation phase as noted yesterday. The negative AT score confirms algorithmic distribution, while positive ST and IN scores indicate the underlying momentum and institutional interest are not yet broken.

• Fundamental Catalyst: Renewed investor confidence in the iBuying model amid a stabilizing housing market, as per recent Bloomberg sector coverage.

• Recommendation: HOLD / MONITOR. Not a candidate for new capital allocation at these levels. Current holders should maintain positions with a tight trailing stop. We would view a pullback to the 50-day moving average as a more attractive strategic entry point.

2. UnitedHealth Group Inc. (UNH:NYSE)

• Price Action Anomaly: 1-Month: +38.67% | 1-Day: +8.64%

• INSTAT Score: 42 (AT: 25 | ST: 50 | IN: -8)

• Signal Interpretation: Bullish Trend Alert. Strong monthly and daily returns evidence exceptional strength. The perfect ST score confirms powerful short-term momentum, though the slightly negative IN score points to some institutional profit-taking or caution at these elevated levels. The positive AT score confirms the longer-term trend remains intact.

• Fundamental Catalyst: Sector-wide recovery driven by resilient earnings and defensible growth prospects, a theme highlighted by the Financial Times.

• Recommendation: BUY / ADD ON WEAKNESS. A core portfolio holding demonstrating strength. The optimal strategy is to accumulate tactically on any market-driven pullbacks. The risk/reward is less favorable for immediate large-scale entry after today's significant gap up.

3. Riot Platforms, Inc. (RIOT:NASDAQ)

• Price Action Anomaly: 1-Month: +37.27% | 1-Day: +13.17%

• INSTAT Score: 100 (AT: 25 | ST: 50 | IN: 50)

• Signal Interpretation: Maximum Bullish Conviction. The alignment of decisive price action (substantial monthly and daily gains) with a perfect INSTAT score of 100 is a rare and high-conviction signal. It indicates unanimous bullish sentiment across all algorithmic timeframes—long-term trend, short-term momentum, and institutional money flow—with no bearish divergences.

• Fundamental Catalyst: Direct leverage to a surging Bitcoin price and renewed optimism in blockchain infrastructure, as corroborated by Reuters.

• Recommendation: STRONG BUY. A candidate for aggressive, overweight positioning for investors seeking crypto-equity exposure. This is the clearest momentum signal in our current screen. Entry points are necessarily momentum-driven.

Risk Assessment & Portfolio Implications

• High-Conviction Opportunity: RIOT presents the cleanest technical setup, warranting an overweight, tactical position.

• Tactical Opportunities: OPEN and UNH represent strong stories but require disciplined entry strategies. OPEN needs a pullback; UNH can be added on any weakness.

• Notable Avoidance: Our analysis aligns with the negative view on Starbucks (SBUX), which shows a profoundly bearish INSTAT score of -100 across all factors. This confirms broad-based selling and justifies an AVOID/SELL recommendation to reallocate capital to more favorable setups.

Bill Cara’s Perspective & Recommendations:

Capital should be prioritized toward high-probability, high-momentum names where quantitative signals align with fundamental catalysts (RIOT). We advise a patient, tactical approach for taking positions in UNH and OPEN. Investors should use strength to reduce exposure in laggards like SBUX to manage overall portfolio risk.

Processing Note: INSTAT is a work in progress with continuous effort to improve it. Today I modified the INSTAT scoring system so the numbers now range from a total score of -100 to +100. The ST and IN scores both max at 50 and the AT score is a max of 25. I also changed the investigation to reduce the emphasis on long-term data anomalies.

Disclaimer: This analysis is based on a quantitative model and market data. It is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Investors should conduct their own due diligence and consider their risk tolerance before making any investment decisions.

References

1. "Real Estate Tech Stocks Rally as Housing Market Stabilizes," Bloomberg, September 2025.

2. "Blockchain Stocks Surge with Crypto Market Recovery," Reuters, September 2025.

3. "Healthcare Sector Gains Momentum Amid Economic Shifts," Financial Times, September 2025.

4. "Starbucks Faces Headwinds from Weak Consumer Spending," Wall Street Journal, September 2025.