INSTAT Master Market Pulse Report: Global Macro, US Sectors, and Americas, February 23, 2026
A difficult day for me, and for the world.
Processing note: Mainland Chinese, Hong Kong, Singapore, Taiwan and South Korea markets were closed for Lunar New Year holidays. However, I was too busy to think about pulling the database records, so the report for these markets is based on old data. Accordingly, the Gemini team missed that as well as all they do is basically read my report. These Far East markets might open stronger in the hope that President Trump reconsiders the actions he took on the weekend.
CRITICAL MARKET CONTEXT:
Friday: President Trump refused to accept SCOTUS decisions on tariffs which stated that Congress must legislate all taxation
After Friday close: To defy SCOTUS, POTUS announced a 10% tariff against the entire world
Saturday: Increased to 15%
Market reaction today: Trillions in capital losses today because of the behavior of POTUS. Unhinged behavior is unacceptable. Broad risk-off selling, flight to safety.
SUMMARY: KEY THEMES
Global Risk-Off: The tariff announcements have triggered a broad flight to safety. Gold (INSTAT 100), Utilities (INSTAT 90), and government bonds are the primary beneficiaries.
Tariff Winners and Losers: Domestic steel (STLD INSTAT 100) wins, Chinese solar (Tongwei INSTAT -100) loses. Mexico and Germany are the biggest tariff casualties.
Commodity Strength: Energy and metals are relative safe havens. Copper (FCX INSTAT 100), gold miners (AEM INSTAT 100), and oil majors (CVX INSTAT 100) are all strong.
Tech Destruction: Software and high-multiple growth names are getting crushed. Microsoft (INSTAT -96), Adobe (INSTAT -92), and Salesforce (INSTAT -87) are leading the downside.
Regional Divergence: Canada and Australia (commodity exporters) are outperforming. Mexico and Germany (exporters to US) are underperforming. Brazil is surprisingly resilient.
Sector Rotation Within Defensives: Not all defensives are equal. Healthcare REITs (VTR INSTAT 100) are winning, residential REITs (AVB INSTAT -82) are losing. Pharma (MRK INSTAT 100) is winning, managed care (UNH INSTAT -100) is losing.
Repair Phase Definition: A technical stabilization period where aggressive distribution has ceased, marked by price flattening and rising internal (IN/INSTAT) scores. Currently, few sectors are in repair phase - most are either in full risk-off mode or breakdown phase.
SECTION 1: GLOBAL MACRO & CROSS-ASSET
R-01 – 10Y Treasury Yields
• Slice Statistics: Mean 1-Day: -0.27%, Mean 1-Week: -0.85%, Mean INSTAT: -39, Range: (Low -100 to High 100)
• Capital Flow Analysis: Treasury yields are falling globally as investors flee to safety. The US 10-year (INSTAT: -90) shows classic flight-to-quality, while Turkey (INSTAT: 100) is the outlier with rising yields due to domestic inflation fears, not global trends.
• Leaders (Extended):
Turkey 10-Year (TR10YT=RR) [INSTAT: 100, 1-Day: 7.37%, 1-Week: 8.68%]
Taiwan 10-Year (TW10YT=RR) [INSTAT: 82, 1-Day: 0.00%, 1-Week: 0.35%]
India 10-Year (IN10YT=RRPS) [INSTAT: 11, 1-Day: -0.39%, 1-Week: 0.46%]
• Laggards (Deep):Hong Kong 10-Year (HK10YT=RR) [INSTAT: -100, 1-Day: 0.00%, 1-Week: -1.33%]
Italy 10-Year (IT10YT=RR) [INSTAT: -100, 1-Day: -0.69%, 1-Week: -1.48%]
United Kingdom 10-Year (GB10YT=RR) [INSTAT: -96, 1-Day: 0.05%, 1-Week: -1.93%]
• Dispersion Note: HIGH DISPERSION (range: 200 points) - Turkey’s domestic crisis completely decouples from global safe-haven flows.
R-02 – US Treasury ETFs
• Slice Statistics: Mean 1-Day: 0.08%, Mean 1-Week: 0.12%, Mean INSTAT: 72, Range: (Low -82 to High 100)
• Capital Flow Analysis: Bond ETFs are seeing strong inflows (mean INSTAT 72) as investors seek safety. The steep yield curve favors intermediates (IEI, IEF) over shorts (SGOV), suggesting markets expect the tariff shock to force Fed cuts.
• Leaders (Extended):
Bondbloxx BBB Rated 1-5 Year Corporate Bond ETF (BBBS.K) [INSTAT: 100, 1-Day: 0.10%, 1-Week: 0.08%]
Vanguard Canadian Government Bond Index ETF (VGV.TO) [INSTAT: 98, 1-Day: 0.18%, 1-Week: 0.40%]
Vanguard Emerging Markets Government Bond ETF (VWOB.O) [INSTAT: 100, 1-Day: 0.10%, 1-Week: 0.32%]
• Laggards (Deep):BondBloxx Private Credit CLO ETF (PCMM.O) [INSTAT: -82, 1-Day: -0.50%, 1-Week: -0.45%]
PIMCO 0-5 Year High Yield Corporate Bond ETF (HYS) [INSTAT: -40, 1-Day: -0.14%, 1-Week: 0.11%]
• Dispersion Note: HIGH DISPERSION (range: 182 points) - Investment grade and government bonds are safe havens; private credit and high yield are being dumped.
R-03 – Rates, Volatility & Credit
• Slice Statistics: Mean 1-Day: -0.69%, Mean 1-Week: -1.48%, Mean INSTAT: 25, Range: (Low -100 to High 100)
• Capital Flow Analysis: The VIX (INSTAT: 90) is flashing red - fear is spiking. But credit markets aren’t panicking yet (HYG INSTAT: 10, LQD INSTAT: 86). This suggests the selloff is orderly so far, focused on equities rather than systemic credit concerns.
• Leaders (Extended):
CBOE Vix Volatility (.VVIX) [INSTAT: 100, 1-Day: 6.62%, 1-Week: 0.34%]
BondBloxx US High Yield Energy Sector ETF (XHYE.K) [INSTAT: 100, 1-Day: 0.10%, 1-Week: 0.28%]
iShares CMBS ETF (CMBS.K) [INSTAT: 100, 1-Day: 0.38%, 1-Week: 0.16%]
• Laggards (Deep):ICE BofAML MOVE (.MOVE) [INSTAT: -33, 1-Day: -5.53%, 1-Week: -8.32%]
BondBloxx US High Yield Financial & REIT Sector ETF (XHYF.K) [INSTAT: -41, 1-Day: -0.13%, 1-Week: -0.07%]
• Dispersion Note: HIGH DISPERSION (range: 200 points) - VIX up, MOVE down - equity fear is rising but bond market volatility is falling. Unusual divergence.
R-04 – Currencies (FX)
• Slice Statistics: Mean 1-Day: -0.26%, Mean 1-Week: -0.30%, Mean INSTAT: 11, Range: (Low -100 to High 100)
• Capital Flow Analysis: The dollar is confused - it’s both a safe haven and a tariff casualty. THB (INSTAT: 100) is the big winner, possibly on regional safe-haven flows. The yen (INSTAT: -54) continues to disappoint as a safe haven due to carry trade dynamics.
• Leaders (Extended):
THB/USD (THB/USD) [INSTAT: 100, 1-Day: 0.24%, 1-Week: 0.43%]
INR/USD (INR/USD) [INSTAT: -98, 1-Day: -0.32%, 1-Week: -0.26%] - Note: Negative INSTAT but still a leader? This group is weird.
BRL/USD (BRL/USD) [INSTAT: 82, 1-Day: 0.14%, 1-Week: 1.10%]
• Laggards (Deep):HKD/USD (HKD/USD) [INSTAT: -100, 1-Day: -0.09%, 1-Week: -0.08%]
TRY/USD (TRY/USD) [INSTAT: -25, 1-Day: 0.00%, 1-Week: -0.44%]
• Dispersion Note: HIGH DISPERSION (range: 200 points) - EM currencies are all over the map based on trade exposure.
R-05 – Commodities (Futures)
• Slice Statistics: Mean 1-Day: -0.22%, Mean 1-Week: 1.21%, Mean INSTAT: 26, Range: (Low -100 to High 100)
• Capital Flow Analysis: Gold (INSTAT: 100) is the star - classic safe-haven bid. Oil (WTI INSTAT: 51) is holding up despite growth fears, suggesting supply concerns (tariffs disrupting trade flows?) are offsetting demand worries.
• Leaders (Extended):
Gold Futures (GC) [INSTAT: 100, 1-Day: 3.32%, 1-Week: 4.78%]
Gasoline RBOB Futures (GPR) [INSTAT: 100, 1-Day: 0.41%, 1-Week: 4.60%]
London Gas Oil Futures (LGO) [INSTAT: 95, 1-Day: 0.92%, 1-Week: 8.91%]
• Laggards (Deep):US Cocoa Futures (CC) [INSTAT: -76, 1-Day: -1.04%, 1-Week: -12.18%]
US Sugar #11 Futures (SB) [INSTAT: -79, 1-Day: 1.01%, 1-Week: 1.67%]
Rough Rice Futures (RR) [INSTAT: -97, 1-Day: -1.48%, 1-Week: -9.12%]
• Dispersion Note: HIGH DISPERSION (range: 200 points) - Precious metals are the safe haven trade; soft commodities are getting crushed on demand fears.
R-06 – Gold & Silver ETFs
• Slice Statistics: Mean 1-Day: 4.25%, Mean 1-Week: 8.24%, Mean INSTAT: 99, Range: (Low 98 to High 100)
• Capital Flow Analysis: This is a stampede into precious metals. Physical gold (GLD INSTAT: 100) and silver (SLV INSTAT: 100) are both seeing massive inflows. The miners (GDX INSTAT: 100) are leveraged plays on the move, confirming this is a conviction trade, not just hedging.
• Leaders (Extended):
ProShares Ultra Silver (AGQ) [INSTAT: 100, 1-Day: 10.07%, 1-Week: 31.03%]
VanEck Junior Gold Miners ETF (GDXJ.K) [INSTAT: 100, 1-Day: 3.26%, 1-Week: 7.55%]
Sprott Physical Silver Trust USD (PSLV.K) [INSTAT: 100, 1-Day: 6.06%, 1-Week: 18.16%]
• Laggards (Deep):All instruments are INSTAT 98-100 - no laggards in this group
• Dispersion Note: HIGH CORRELATION (range: 2 points) - The entire precious metals complex is moving in lockstep. This is a macro trade, not stock-specific.
R-07 – Global Equity Indices
• Slice Statistics: Mean 1-Day: -0.22%, Mean 1-Week: 1.12%, Mean INSTAT: 44, Range: (Low -42 to High 100)
• Capital Flow Analysis: Global equities are mixed, but the pattern is clear - US is getting hit (S&P 500 INSTAT: -25), while some EM and European markets are holding up. Korea (KOSPI INSTAT: 100) is the standout winner. This suggests the tariff news is being viewed as primarily a US policy mistake, not a global growth killer.
• Leaders (Extended):
KOSPI (.KS11) [INSTAT: 100, 1-Day: 0.65%, 1-Week: 6.16%]
S&P/TSX Venture Composite (.SPCDNX) [INSTAT: 100, 1-Day: 0.81%, 1-Week: 5.95%]
FTSE Straits Times Singapore (.STI) [INSTAT: 100, 1-Day: 0.47%, 1-Week: 2.08%]
• Laggards (Deep):S&P Merval (.MERV) [INSTAT: -45, 1-Day: -3.84%, 1-Week: -1.88%]
NASDAQ Composite (.IXIC) [INSTAT: -42, 1-Day: -1.13%, 1-Week: 0.36%]
Shanghai Composite (.SSEC) [INSTAT: -15, 1-Day: -1.26%, 1-Week: 0.00%]
• Dispersion Note: HIGH DISPERSION (range: 142 points) - Korea and Canada are winning; Argentina and US tech are losing.
R-08 – Country ETFs (iShares MSCI)
• Slice Statistics: Mean 1-Day: -0.43%, Mean 1-Week: 0.11%, Mean INSTAT: 45, Range: (Low -100 to High 100)
• Capital Flow Analysis: Country-level ETF flows confirm the rotation OUT of US (SPY INSTAT: -25) and INTO select international markets. Austria (EWO INSTAT: 100), Canada (EWC INSTAT: 100), and Malaysia (EWM INSTAT: 100) are the biggest beneficiaries. This is capital rotating away from US policy uncertainty.
• Leaders (Extended):
iShares MSCI Austria ETF (EWO) [INSTAT: 100, 1-Day: 0.03%, 1-Week: 2.50%]
iShares MSCI Canada ETF (EWC) [INSTAT: 100, 1-Day: -0.37%, 1-Week: 1.39%]
iShares MSCI Malaysia ETF (EWM) [INSTAT: 100, 1-Day: -0.40%, 1-Week: 0.98%]
• Laggards (Deep):India Closed Fund (IFN) [INSTAT: -100, 1-Day: -1.54%, 1-Week: -4.15%]
iShares MSCI Belgium ETF (EWK) [INSTAT: 3, 1-Day: -0.77%, 1-Week: -0.66%]
iShares MSCI Mexico ETF (EWW) [INSTAT: 3, 1-Day: -2.08%, 1-Week: -1.84%]
• Dispersion Note: HIGH DISPERSION (range: 200 points) - Europe and Canada are winning; India and Mexico are losing.
R-09 – Dow 30 Components
• Slice Statistics: Mean 1-Day: -1.53%, Mean 1-Week: -1.18%, Mean INSTAT: 13, Range: (Low -100 to High 100)
• Capital Flow Analysis: The Dow is getting crushed, but there’s a clear defensive tilt within the blue chips. Chevron (CVX INSTAT: 100), Merck (MRK INSTAT: 100), and Johnson & Johnson (JNJ INSTAT: 98) are the leaders - energy and healthcare. The laggards are the growth and financial names: IBM (INSTAT: -82), Microsoft (INSTAT: -96), Salesforce (INSTAT: -87).
• Leaders (Extended):
Chevron Corp (CVX) [INSTAT: 100, 1-Day: 0.53%, 1-Week: 0.64%]
Merck & Company Inc (MRK) [INSTAT: 100, 1-Day: 1.28%, 1-Week: 1.99%]
NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA.O) [INSTAT: 100, 1-Day: 0.94%, 1-Week: 4.81%]
• Laggards (Deep):Unitedhealth Group (UNH) [INSTAT: -100, 1-Day: -2.61%, 1-Week: -3.67%]
Microsoft Corporation (MSFT.O) [INSTAT: -96, 1-Day: -3.17%, 1-Week: -4.16%]
Salesforce Inc (CRM) [INSTAT: -87, 1-Day: -3.78%, 1-Week: -6.09%]
• Dispersion Note: HIGH DISPERSION (range: 200 points) - Energy and healthcare are the only safe havens in the Dow.
R-10 – Transportation
• Slice Statistics: Mean 1-Day: -3.27%, Mean 1-Week: -1.94%, Mean INSTAT: 13, Range: (Low -100 to High 100)
• Capital Flow Analysis: Transports are flashing recession warning. Airlines (AAL INSTAT: -100, UAL INSTAT: -30) are getting crushed on tariff/trade war fears. Rails (CSX INSTAT: 100) are the only bright spot - possibly on domestic freight resilience vs international exposure.
• Leaders (Extended):
CSX Corporation (CSX.O) [INSTAT: 100, 1-Day: -0.80%, 1-Week: 2.69%]
FedEx Corporation (FDX) [INSTAT: 69, 1-Day: -1.23%, 1-Week: 2.40%]
Norfolk Southern Corporation (NSC) [INSTAT: 86, 1-Day: -0.37%, 1-Week: 0.04%]
• Laggards (Deep):American Airlines Group (AAL.O) [INSTAT: -100, 1-Day: -4.86%, 1-Week: -6.84%]
Avis Budget Group Inc (CAR.O) [INSTAT: -97, 1-Day: -9.10%, 1-Week: -25.91%]
Uber Technologies Inc (UBER.K) [INSTAT: -94, 1-Day: -4.24%, 1-Week: 1.06%]
• Dispersion Note: HIGH DISPERSION (range: 200 points) - Rails are holding up; airlines are collapsing. Trade war fears vs domestic resilience.
