INSTAT Master Market Pulse Report: Global Macro, US Sectors, and Americas, Wednesday February 18, 2026
Capital Flow Analysis: The Great Rotation from Growth to Value & Defensives
Processing Note: As I migrate my Substack subscribers and Stripe accounts, I decided to publish a minimal INSTAT and no Playbook until the conversion is done. One of the reasons is that I am changing application software and an AI platform, which is taking my available time.
Executive Summary
The February 18 session marks a decisive inflection point in capital allocation, characterized by a violent rotational shift out of US mega-cap growth and into Energy, international cyclicals, and defensive safe havens. The “Great Rotation” trade is confirmed by extreme dispersion in sector INSTAT scores: Energy (R-15) posts a mean INSTAT of 78 with broad-based accumulation, while Technology (R-24) languishes at -4 with deep institutional outflows from former leaders like Microsoft (MSFT, -98 INSTAT). Global sovereign bonds are in a confirmed “Repair Phase” (R-01 mean INSTAT -24), with falling yields attracting selective institutional buying in US and Japanese paper. The “flight-to-safety” trade is entrenched in Utilities (R-18, +0.4% 1-Day) and Real Estate (R-19, -1.2% 1-Day), where capital is hiding despite tepid price action. Commodities confirm the industrial demand signal, with Zinc (+2.7% 1-Day, 100 INSTAT) and Energy complex (Gas Oil +6.4% 1-Day, 98 INSTAT) leading. The NASDAQ’s deep laggard status (-0.6% 1-Day, -9 INSTAT) against broad global equity strength (World Exchanges mean +0.8% 1-Day, 64 INSTAT) confirms the rotational thesis: money is exiting crowded growth trades and rotating into value, commodities, and defensive yield.
Section 1: Global Macro & Cross-Asset (R-01 to R-10)
R-01 – 10Y Treasury Yields
The global sovereign debt complex is exhibiting a clear “flight-to-quality” bid, though the move is highly idiosyncratic. The mean INSTAT score for the group sits at a deeply negative -24, indicating that despite falling yields (rising prices) in many developed markets, the capital flow dynamic is viewed as fragile or a short-term correction rather than a structural accumulation phase. The standout performers are the United States 10-Year (INSTAT -3, 1-Day +0.8%) and Japan 10-Year (INSTAT 40, 1-Day +0.5%), with Japan showing a strong internal score despite a recent yield spike, suggesting underlying demand. Deep laggards include Singapore (INSTAT -100, 1-Day -1.4%) and Hong Kong (INSTAT -100, 1-Day 0.0%), where yields have collapsed but internal scores signal extreme technical weakness, possibly due to liquidity drains.
R-02 / R-03 – Corporate & Govt Bonds and Credit Spread Factors
Fixed income is in a distinct “Repair Phase.” The mean INSTAT for corporate bond ETFs (R-02) is a robust 55, signaling that capital is rotating back into credit after a period of outflows. High-yield (HYG, INSTAT 100, 1-Day +0.1%) and investment-grade (LQD, INSTAT 54, 1-Day -0.1%) are both seeing accumulation. However, dispersion is high; while broad market ETFs strengthen, the MOVE Index (R-03, INSTAT -3, 1-Day -1.8%) suggests the rates volatility that plagued markets has subsided, allowing credit spreads to tighten. The “Extended Leader” here is the broad-based accumulation in junk bonds, with iShares iBoxx $ High Yield Corporate Bond ETF (HYG) and Jpmorgan Betabuilders U.S. Treasury Bond ETF (BBIB, 1-Day -0.2%) both hitting maximum INSTAT scores of 100, confirming aggressive institutional buying.
R-04 / R-05 – Global Forex & Commodities
Currency markets are painting a picture of US dollar weakness and selective emerging market strength. The group mean is negative, but outliers tell the story. The Malaysian Ringgit (INSTAT 96, 1-Day 0.0%) and Chinese Yuan (INSTAT 92, 1-Day 0.0%) are extended leaders, showing strong 1-month appreciation and high internal scores, indicating capital is flowing into select Asian FX. Conversely, the Japanese Yen (INSTAT -83, 1-Day -1.0%) and Turkish Lira (INSTAT -100, 1-Day 0.0%) are deep laggards, suffering from persistent outflows. In commodities (R-05), the narrative is purely industrial vs. softs. Industrial metals like Zinc (INSTAT 100, 1-Day +2.7%) and energy products like London Gas Oil (INSTAT 98, 1-Day +6.4%) are leading, while soft commodities like Cocoa (INSTAT -87, 1-Day -4.0%) and Sugar (INSTAT -3, 1-Day +2.3%) are under significant distribution.
R-06 – Gold and Silver
Precious metals are exhibiting a mixed but constructive accumulation phase. The mean INSTAT for the group is a strong 62, confirming that the recent rally in bullion is being met with institutional buying rather than speculative froth. The physical gold ETFs (GLD, IAU) are all exhibiting perfect accumulation scores of 76, acting as a safe haven bid. SPDR® Gold Shares (GLD, INSTAT 76, 1-Day +2.2%) leads the complex higher. However, there is high dispersion in the silver complex; while futures (SI, INSTAT 76, 1-Day +5.1%) are strong, the leveraged ETF ProShares Ultra Silver (AGQ, INSTAT 0, 1-Day +11.1%) shows extreme volatility and a lack of follow-through, suggesting the silver rally is not as broadly supported as gold.
R-07 to R-10 – Global Equities
Global equity indices are in a confirmed risk-on phase, but with a defensive tilt. The high mean INSTAT of 64 across world exchanges confirms broad-based accumulation. Leaders are emerging markets and commodity-linked economies, with Thailand (SET, INSTAT 100, 1-Day +0.5%) and Canada (TSX, INSTAT 100, 1-Day +1.5%) at peak scores. This is capital rotating into value and resource-driven markets. The Dow Transports (R-10, INSTAT 60, mean 1-Day +1.8%) are strong, confirming the industrial demand signal from commodities. However, the NASDAQ Composite (INSTAT -9, 1-Day +0.8%) is a significant anomaly, acting as a deep laggard. This dispersion signals a rotational shift: money is leaving mega-cap growth and rotating into cyclicals, value, and international markets, confirming a “Capital Hiding” move away from crowded US tech trades.
Section 2: US Sector Analysis (R-14 to R-25)
The landscape of US sectors is defined by a massive capital rotation out of Growth and into Defensive and Energy value. The mean INSTAT for the group is 41, but the range is extreme, signaling a violent portfolio realignment.
Defensive & Income (Utilities, Real Estate, Staples): Capital is flowing aggressively into safety and yield. Utilities (R-18, mean 1-Day -1.6%, mean INSTAT 33) and Real Estate (R-19, mean 1-Day -1.2%, mean INSTAT 34) are acting as the primary havens, with high INSTAT scores despite tepid price action. This is a classic “Capital Hiding” move, where money seeks stability amid uncertainty in growth stocks. Consumer Staples (R-21) is the extended leader in this group with a mean INSTAT of 56, anchored by classic defensive names like Coca-Cola (KO, INSTAT 100, 1-Day -0.1%) and Procter & Gamble (PG, INSTAT 2, 1-Day -1.7%). However, the dispersion in Staples is critical: while KO is strong, Walmart (WMT, INSTAT 6, 1-Day -1.7%) and Costco (COST, INSTAT 27, 1-Day -1.6%) are lagging, suggesting the defensive bid is focused on traditional high-yielders rather than retail growth.
Cyclicals & Industrials (Energy, Materials, Industrials): Energy (R-15) is the unequivocal leader of the entire report, with a mean INSTAT of 78 and mean 1-Day return of +2.2%. This is not just price momentum; it is deep institutional accumulation across the board, with over 20 constituents posting perfect INSTAT scores of 100 (e.g., Chevron (CVX, 1-Day +1.8%), Exxon (XOM, 1-Day +3.0%), ConocoPhillips (COP, 1-Day +1.6%)). This confirms the “Capital Flow” story: money is rotating into the energy sector as a hard-asset, inflation-hedge play. Industrials (R-17) are strong but show high dispersion, with transportation and defense names like FedEx (FDX, INSTAT 100, 1-Day +2.1%) and Northrop Grumman (NOC, INSTAT 100, 1-Day +3.4%) leading, while Boeing (BA, INSTAT -15, 1-Day -2.1%) lags on company-specific issues.
Growth (Technology, Communication, Discretionary): This cluster is the source of the outflows. Technology (R-24) has a negative mean INSTAT of -4 and mean 1-Day return of +1.2%, driven by deep laggards like Microsoft (MSFT, INSTAT -98, 1-Day +0.7%) and Salesforce (CRM, INSTAT -50, 1-Day +1.9%). This confirms the “breadth divergence” noted earlier: the sector is being held up by a few names while the majority of stocks see internal degradation. Consumer Discretionary (R-20, mean INSTAT -6, mean 1-Day +1.3%) tells a similar story of distribution, with Amazon (AMZN, INSTAT -25, 1-Day +1.8%) and Tesla (TSLA, INSTAT -60, 1-Day +0.1%) showing severe technical weakness. The narrative is clear: capital is exiting expensive growth and rotating into Energy and Defensive value.
Section 3: Americas & International (R-44 to R-47)
The US-traded international complex confirms the global “risk-on with a twist” narrative. Canada (R-45) is an extended leader with a mean INSTAT of 44 and mean 1-Day return of +0.8%, driven by its energy and materials sectors. Names like Cenovus (CVE, INSTAT 92, 1-Day +3.1%) and Suncor (SU, INSTAT 100, 1-Day +1.4%) are mirrors of the US energy strength, confirming a coordinated North American capital flow into commodities. Mexico (R-46) , while positive (mean INSTAT 29, mean 1-Day -0.6%), shows more dispersion, with traditional industrials lagging while consumer names like Wal Mart de Mexico (INSTAT 100, 1-Day 0.0%) lead. The Asia & Europe (R-44) group is a tale of two tapes: European banks and energy are strong, while Chinese ADRs like Alibaba (BABA, INSTAT -47, 1-Day +0.2%) remain deep laggards, showing that the capital rotation is avoiding China-specific risk despite the global risk-on mood.
Mandatory Narrative Definitions
• Repair Phase: A technical stabilization period where aggressive distribution has ceased, marked by price flattening and rising internal (IN/INSTAT) scores.
• Capital Hiding: Institutional money rotating into defensive sectors (Utilities, Real Estate, Staples) not for growth, but for preservation amid uncertainty in growth equities.
Reading the INSTAT reports and my own research, I saw that utilities made a big shift on the 12th and 13th, then made a countermove on the 18th. which I will use as a buy signal. Follow the money.