(Sample 1) INSTAT Master Market Pulse Report: Global Macro, US Sectors, and Americas, February 17, 2026
Defensive Rotation & Commodity Divergence
I. Global Macro and Cross-Asset Analysis (Group 1: R-01 to R-10)
R-01: Sovereign Debt 10Y Yields The yields complex shows a persistent downward pressure over the 1-week horizon, with many benchmarks exhibiting deep negative INSTAT scores. While 1-day moves are largely flat (e.g., U.S. 10-Year at +0.17%), the 1-week trend reflects a significant repricing lower, particularly in Asia and Europe. Benchmarks like the Hong Kong 10-Year and Singapore 10-Year are at extreme weakness with INSTAT scores of -100.
Laggard: Hong Kong 10-Year (HK10YT=RR): -100 INSTAT, extending a weak 1-month tape.
Leader: Taiwan 10-Year (TW10YT=RR): +69 INSTAT, showing relative stability against the broader sovereign slide.
Anomaly (Deep Laggard): Singapore 10-Year (SG10YT=RR): INSTAT -100 with a 1-month decline of -13%.
R-02: Corporate & Govt Bonds The bond market is exhibiting a classic defensive bid. High-quality instruments like the Vanguard Canadian Govt Bond (VGV.TO) and Intermediate Muni ETF (ITM) are showing max-strength INSTAT scores of 82 to 100. This suggests capital is seeking safety in duration and high-grade credit as equity volatility persists.
Leader: Intermediate Muni ETF (ITM): 100 INSTAT, strong 1-week trend.
Laggard: Embecta Corp (EMBC.O): -63 INSTAT, a sharp outlier in a generally strong bond/credit-related slice.
R-03: Credit Analysis Volatility remains elevated with the VIX seeing a 14% spike over the past week. While the 1-day move in the VIX was lower (-4.29%), the underlying internal scores (IN of 50) suggest that the market remains on edge. Credit spreads are showing mixed signals, but high-yield energy (XHYE.K) remains surprisingly resilient.
Anomaly (Extended Leader): iShares CMBS ETF (CMBS.K): 100 INSTAT, exhibiting steady accumulation.
R-04: Forex The US Dollar is seeing mixed results, but commodity-linked currencies are under pressure. The Australian Dollar (AUD/USD) shows 1-day strength (+0.21%), but many EM crosses like the Indonesian Rupiah (IDR/USD) are deeply depressed with INSTAT scores of -82.
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R-05: Commodities Broad-based weakness is the dominant theme, particularly in energy and precious metals. WTI Crude and Brent are both seeing negative 1-day and 1-week returns, with WTI INSTAT at -83. Cocoa (CC) remains in a state of collapse with a -43% YTD return and -97 INSTAT.
Leader: Feeder Cattle (FC): 100 INSTAT, diverging from the broader commodity weakness.
Deep Laggard: US Corn (ZC): -100 INSTAT, ongoing short-term distribution.
R-06: Gold and Silver Precious metals have entered a sharp “Repair Phase” or continued distribution after recent strength. Silver (SI) fell -5.5% today, bringing its 1-week decline to over -8%. All major gold and silver ETFs (GLD, IAU, SLV) have INSTAT scores in the negative teens or lower.
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R-07: World Stock Exchanges Global indices are largely in a defensive posture. While the FTSE 100 and DAX showed 1-day resilience, the Nasdaq remains a laggard with a -35 INSTAT and a -3.98% 1-month return.
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Leader: SET Index (Thailand): 100 INSTAT, showing strong short-term momentum (+1.5% 1-day).
Laggard: S&P Merval: -47 INSTAT, sharp 1-week decline of nearly -8%.
R-09 & R-10: Dow Industrials and Transports The Dow 30 shows high dispersion. Defensive staples like Coca-Cola (KO) are at 100 INSTAT, while tech-heavy components like Microsoft (MSFT.O) and Salesforce (CRM) are deeply negative (-95 and -96 INSTAT respectively). In Transports, the group is generally stronger, led by CSX and Kirby Corp (KEX) at 100 INSTAT.
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II. US Sector Analysis (Group 2: R-14 to R-25)
Sectors Overview (R-14) Sector rotation is clearly favoring defensives. Real Estate (XLRE), Utilities (XLU), and Industrials (XLI) are the current leaders by INSTAT. Technology (XLK) remains the primary laggard, reflecting a risk-off environment in high-beta growth.
Key Sector Highlights:
Energy (R-15): Mixed. Kinder Morgan (KMI) and TechnipFMC (FTI) are at 100 INSTAT, while Exxon Mobil (XOM) is struggling at 20 INSTAT.
Technology (R-24): Broad distribution. Major names like Microsoft and Oracle are at -95 and -96 INSTAT.
Real Estate (R-19): Strong defensive bid. Leaders like Prologis (PLD) and Simon Property Group (SPG) are at 100 INSTAT.
III. Americas & International (Group 3: R-44 to R-47)
Canada (R-45) The Canadian complex is dominated by energy and financials. Canadian Natural Resources (CNQ) is a standout leader at 100 INSTAT. However, tech-sensitive Shopify (SHOP.O) is lagging at -17 INSTAT.
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Mexico & South America (R-46 & R-47) Regional strength is concentrated in Mexico, with Fomento Economico (FMX) and Wal-Mart de Mexico at 100 INSTAT. South America is more mixed; while Brazil’s Gerdau (GGB) is weak (-2 INSTAT), utility-like SABESP (SBS) remains strong at 96 INSTAT.
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IV. Key Anomalies to Tag
Extended Leader: Coca-Cola (KO) [R-09]: INSTAT 100. Relentless defensive bid; 1-week +3.58%.
Deep Laggard: Microsoft (MSFT.O) [R-09]: INSTAT -95. Breaking below short-term support; 1-month -13.68%.
Deep Laggard: Pinterest (PINS.K) [R-25]: INSTAT -100. Extreme short-term distribution.
Contrarian Watch: NVIDIA (NVDA.O) [R-24]: INSTAT -2. While 1-day is +1.18%, internal scores remain low but are showing signs of tentative stabilization.
“Repair Phase” Explained In the context of the INSTAT capital flow reports, a “Repair Phase” is a transitional market condition that occurs immediately following a significant drawdown or structural breakdown. It represents the period where the “bleeding stops”—selling pressure exhausts itself, and an asset begins to stabilize—but has not yet established a confirmed new uptrend.