INSTAT C Global Macro and Cross-Asset Daily Market Pulse Report, February 10, 2026
Defensive Rotation Drives Yield Compression, EM Currencies Shine, and Rails Lead Transports Amid Broad Risk-Off Sentiment
Executive Summary
February 10, 2026, markets are dominated by a risk-off rotation, with global sovereign yields declining sharply amid safe-haven demand. Bonds and defensive equity sectors are benefiting, while commodities and certain high-beta assets face pressure. Notable themes include a divergence between cyclical strength in rails/industrials and weakness in tech/growth names, EM currency resilience against a soft USD, and sector-specific stress in credits like financial high-yield. Gold miners show leadership within commodities, while cocoa and silver experience severe liquidation. Overall, the tone is one of defensive reallocation with selective pro-cyclical bids in agriculture, EM FX, and transport infrastructure.
R-01: 10Y Treasury Yields
Overview
The sovereign rates complex is firmly in Bearish/Repair mode, reflecting a global bid for duration (yields lower, prices higher) amid safe-haven flows. The 1D (-0.76%) and 1W (-2.00%) declines in mean yields highlight a synchronized compression across developed markets. Leading this move are safe-haven anchors like Switzerland (-4.6% 1D, -11.3% 1W) and Japan (-2.5% 1D), where negative momentum is accelerating. The broad swath of negative INSTAT scores (mean -27.2) confirms that the path of least resistance for global yields remains lower.
Conversely, idiosyncratic pressures are pushing yields higher in specific pockets. Norway and Taiwan are the outliers, showing positive yield momentum (INSTAT > 90) and bucking the global trend. However, these are exceptions in a complex dominated by yield compression. The US 10-Year (-1.3% 1D, -3.1% 1W) is participating fully in the rally, breaking down alongside German Bunds and UK Gilts, reinforcing a “risk-off” or “disinflationary” macro signal.
Leader/Laggard Summary
Defensive unwind (Yield Compression): Switzerland (CH10YT), US (TNc1), and Japan (JP10YT) are leading the yield decline.
Idiosyncratic rising rates: Norway (NO10YT) and Taiwan (TW10YT) are divergent leaders with rising yields.
Repair phase: China (CN10YT) remains depressed (INSTAT -96) but stable.
Key Anomalies
Deep Laggards (Falling Yields):
R-01 Switzerland 10-Year (CH10YT=RR): Strongly Bearish – INSTAT -68 with a massive -4.6% 1D drop; flight-to-safety acceleration.
R-01 Italy 10-Year (IT10YT=RR): Bearish – INSTAT -87; peripheral spreads tightening in sync with core.
R-01 US 10-Year (TNc1=): Bearish – INSTAT -65; breaking below key support with momentum.
Extended Leaders (Rising Yields):
R-01 Norway 10-Year (NO10YT=RR): Strongly Bullish – INSTAT 95; +2.5% 1D jump suggests local inflation/policy divergence.
R-02: Bond Market
Overview
The ETF bond market confirms the bullish duration signal from sovereign yields. The slice is Moderately Bullish, with a positive 1D mean (+0.26%) and stable weekly trend. Capital is flowing into broad benchmarks like the Vanguard Total Bond (BND) and iShares Core Universal (IUSB), both posting maximum INSTAT scores of 100. This broad-based buying indicates institutional reallocation into high-grade fixed income.
Credit spreads within the ETF space remain well-behaved, with Investment Grade (LQD proxy) and TIPS (TIP) participating in the rally. There are virtually no signs of stress in the liquid credit vehicles, though leverage-sensitive proxies like Private Credit (PCMM) are lagging (INSTAT -80), hinting at some hesitation to embrace illiquidity in this specific session.
Leader/Laggard Summary
Defensive bid: Aggregate bond funds (BND, IUSB) are clear leaders.
Inflation protection: TIPS (TIP) are attracting flows, suggesting real-yield compression is a driver.
Credit lag: Private Credit (PCMM) and short-duration cash proxies (SGOV) are underperforming duration-heavy assets.
Key Anomalies
Extended Leaders:
R-02 iShares Core Universal Bond (IUSB.O): Strongly Bullish – INSTAT 100; consistent inflows extending the weekly trend.
R-02 Vanguard Total Bond (BND.O): Strongly Bullish – INSTAT 100; defensive anchor acting as a clear leader.
Deep Laggards:
R-02 Embecta Corp (EMBC.O): Idiosyncratic Stress – INSTAT -87; -5.7% 1W decline signals specific credit concerns.
R-03: Credit Analysis
Overview
Credit markets are flashing a Neutral/Mixed signal. While high-quality spreads are tight, volatility is perking up. The VIX complex (VVIX) saw a +2.2% daily pop despite a down week, and the MOVE index (bond volatility) remains elevated despite a daily pullback. The “risk-on” aspect is visible in specific high-yield sectors like Energy (XHYE), which is outperforming (INSTAT 100) alongside CMBS.
However, broadly syndicated high yield (CDX, XHYF) is showing fatigue, with negative INSTAT scores suggesting distribution. This divergence—Energy HY strong vs. Financial HY weak—mirrors the equity sector rotation. The credit impulse is not uniformly bullish, warranting caution as volatility indices try to find a floor.
Leader/Laggard Summary
Pro-risk cyclical leadership: Energy High Yield (XHYE) and CMBS are tight and bid.
Defensive unwind: Bond volatility (MOVE) cooled off today (-1.4%) but remains in a weekly uptrend (+9.0%).
Sector stress: Financial High Yield (XHYF) is a clear laggard.
Key Anomalies
Extended Leaders:
R-03 BondBloxx HY Energy (XHYE.K): Strongly Bullish – INSTAT 100; credit confirming the commodity bid.
Deep Laggards:
R-03 BondBloxx HY Financials (XHYF.K): Bearish – INSTAT -80; lagging the broader rally.
R-03 Simplify High Yield (CDX): Bearish – INSTAT -61; synthetic credit protection costs rising or ETF underperforming.
R-04: Forex
Overview
Currency markets are relatively quiet, characterized by Neutral/Mixed action (mean 1D +0.04%). The standout theme is emerging market resilience. The Malaysian Ringgit (MYR), Mexican Peso (MXN), and Brazilian Real (BRL) are leading against the USD with high INSTAT scores (>95). This EM strength amidst falling US yields supports a “soft landing” or “carry trade” narrative where the dollar’s yield advantage erodes.
Developed market FX is more muted. The Hong Kong Dollar (HKD) and Taiwan Dollar (TWD) are lagging or flat, lacking the momentum seen in LatAm and SE Asia. The absence of a strong USD bid (DXY stability) is allowing these high-beta currencies to outperform tactically.
Leader/Laggard Summary
Pro-risk cyclical leadership: MYR, MXN, and BRL are attracting capital.
Defensive unwind: No major flight-to-safety into USD or JPY visible in this slice today.
Laggards: HKD and TRY are dead money relative to the leaders.
Key Anomalies
Extended Leaders:
R-04 MXN/USD (Mexican Peso): Strongly Bullish – INSTAT 97; steady appreciation trend.
R-04 MYR/USD (Malaysian Ringgit): Strongly Bullish – INSTAT 98; breakout leader in Asia FX.
Deep Laggards:
R-04 HKD/USD: Bearish/Neutral – INSTAT -64; peg pressure or liquidity drain.
R-05: Commodities
Overview
The commodities complex is Bearish/Repair, weighed down by sharp selloffs in softs and industrial metals. The mean 1D return is -0.54%, dragged lower by a collapse in Cocoa (-7.9%) and weakness in Silver (-2.3%) and Coffee (-1.9%). Energy products are split; Soybean Oil and Grains (Soybeans) are staging a powerful contrarian rally (INSTAT 100), likely on weather or supply news, acting as the sole bright spots.
Industrial metals like Copper and Palladium are soft, aligning with the “growth scare” narrative hinted at by falling sovereign yields. Energy futures (Gasoline, Natural Gas) are choppy and lack direction, failing to confirm the strength seen in energy equities.
Leader/Laggard Summary
Pro-risk cyclical leadership: Agricultural grains (Soybeans, Bean Oil) are surging.
Defensive unwind: Precious metals futures (Silver, Platinum) are under pressure.
Deep stress: Cocoa (CC) and Sugar (SB) are in liquidation mode.
Key Anomalies
Extended Leaders:
R-05 US Soybeans (ZS): Strongly Bullish – INSTAT 100; +1.2% 1D, +5.4% 1W; aggressive short-covering or structural bid.
Deep Laggards:
R-05 US Cocoa (CC): Crash Mode – INSTAT -100; -7.9% 1D, -12.1% 1W; parabolic bubble bursting.
R-05 Natural Gas (NG): Bearish – INSTAT -95; despite a flat day, the trend is broken.
R-05 Silver Futures (SI): Bearish – INSTAT -15; failing to hold recent gains.
R-06: Gold & Silver
Overview
Precious metals ETFs are effectively Neutral/Mixed despite the futures weakness. While Silver ETFs (AGQ, SLV) took a heavy hit (-6.8% and -3.5% respectively), Gold products (PHYS, BAR, GLD) held up relatively well on a relative basis. Gold miners (GDX) are the clear standout, posting a positive day (+0.1%) and strong week (+4.9%) with INSTAT 98. This divergence—Miners > Metal—is often a bullish leading indicator for the complex.
The severe underperformance of Silver (-2.0% mean 1D for the slice) suggests industrial demand concerns are outweighing monetary demand, decoupling it from Gold.
Leader/Laggard Summary
Pro-risk cyclical leadership: Gold Miners (GDX) are leveraging gold price resilience.
Defensive unwind: Silver (SLV) is being liquidated aggressively.
Resilience: Physical Gold trusts (PHYS) are seeing “contrarian” support (positive IN, negative 1D).
Key Anomalies
Extended Leaders:
R-06 VanEck Gold Miners (GDX): Strongly Bullish – INSTAT 98; relative strength vs. spot metal is a key tell.
Deep Laggards:
R-06 ProShares Ultra Silver (AGQ): Deep Distress – INSTAT -13; -6.8% 1D drop reinforces leverage risk.
Contrarian Watch:
R-06 SPDR Gold Shares (GLD): Pullback in Uptrend – -1.0% 1D but INSTAT 92; classic “buy the dip” setup if yields keep falling.
R-07: Global Equity Indexes
Overview
Global benchmarks are Moderately Bullish, led by Asia. The Hang Seng (HK50) and Thailand (SET) are showing strong momentum (INSTAT 100), reflecting the “China stabilization” theme. Developed markets are more mixed; the NASDAQ (.IXIC) and S&P/TSX Venture are lagging, while the Dow Industrials and Transports (discussed later) hold firm.
The breadth is generally supportive (mean INSTAT ~66), indicating that this is a consolidation within an uptrend rather than a reversal. Emerging market indices (TA 35, SET) are outperforming developed peers on a short-term basis.
Leader/Laggard Summary
Pro-risk cyclical leadership: Asian Tigers (Hang Seng, SET) are leading.
Tech lag: NASDAQ (.IXIC) is soft (-0.6% 1D).
Laggards: Vietnam (HNX) and Poland (WIG20) are seeing profit-taking.
Key Anomalies
Extended Leaders:
R-07 Hang Seng (HK50): Strongly Bullish – INSTAT 100; +0.6% 1D confirms the breakout.
Contrarian Watch:
R-07 WIG20 (Poland): Tactical Selloff – -1.1% 1D but IN 50 suggests underlying breadth might be holding.
R-08: Country ETFs
Overview
Country ETFs mirror the index slice: Moderately Bullish with pockets of specific strength. Belgium (EWK) and Finland (EFNL) are surprisingly strong (INSTAT 100), possibly due to specific large-cap moves (e.g., Nokia in Finland). Japan (EWJ) is also extending well (+2.0% 1D, +7.4% 1W) despite the currency drag, showing strong local equity demand.
Latin America ex-Mexico is weak, with Chile (ECH) acting as a deep laggard (-3.5% 1D, INSTAT -28). Europe is a mixed bag, with peripheral markets like Spain and Italy seeing minor pullbacks after recent runs, flagged here as contrarian candidates due to supportive IN scores.
Leader/Laggard Summary
Pro-risk cyclical leadership: Japan (EWJ) and specific Euro-proxies (Belgium, Finland).
Defensive unwind: Chile (ECH) is breaking down.
Contrarian: Australia (EWA), Spain (EWP), and Italy (EWI) saw modest selling but retain constructive internals.
Key Anomalies
Extended Leaders:
R-08 iShares MSCI Japan (EWJ): Strongly Bullish – INSTAT 92; +2.0% 1D surge is a high-conviction move.
Deep Laggards:
R-08 iShares MSCI Chile (ECH): Bearish – INSTAT -28; copper weakness weighing heavily.
Contrarian Watch:
R-08 iShares MSCI Australia (EWA): Pullback – -0.6% 1D but INSTAT 74; dip buying candidate.
R-09: DJIA Dow Industrials
Overview
The Dow Industrials are Neutral/Mixed, functioning as a market pivot. Goldman Sachs (GS), 3M (MMM), and Caterpillar (CAT) are standout leaders, driving the index with strong INSTAT scores (98-100). This confirms a “cyclical value” rotation.
However, the index is weighed down by heavyweights in healthcare and tech. UnitedHealth (UNH) and Salesforce (CRM) are deep laggards (INSTAT -100), struggling to find traction. The bifurcation is stark: Financials and Industrials are buying targets, while defensive Health Care and expensive Tech are funding sources.
Leader/Laggard Summary
Pro-risk cyclical leadership: Financials (GS) and Industrials (MMM, CAT).
Tech/Growth lag: Salesforce (CRM), Amazon (AMZN), and IBM.
Defensive unwind: UnitedHealth (UNH) and Amgen.
Key Anomalies
Extended Leaders:
R-09 3M Company (MMM): Strongly Bullish – INSTAT 100; +1.9% 1D extends a +11.4% weekly ramp.
Deep Laggards:
R-09 UnitedHealth (UNH): Bearish – INSTAT -100; relentless selling pressure.
R-09 Amazon (AMZN.O): Bearish – INSTAT -82; continuing its post-earnings drift.
Contrarian Watch:
R-09 NVIDIA (NVDA.O): Pause – -0.8% 1D but IN 50; consolidating recent gains.
R-10: DJTA Dow Transports
Overview
The Transports are Strongly Bullish, acting as a key confirmation signal for the broader economy. Union Pacific (UNP) and Norfolk Southern (NSC) are powering higher (INSTAT 98-100), leading a rail resurgence. This aligns with the strength seen in Industrials (R-09).
While the rails are chugging, the “gig economy” transport names are stalling. Uber (UBER) and Avis Budget (CAR) are deep laggards (INSTAT -98 to -100), showing a clear preference for tangible infrastructure assets over tech-enabled services. This split—Old Economy Transports UP, New Economy Transports DOWN—is the defining theme of the slice.
Leader/Laggard Summary
Pro-risk cyclical leadership: Railroads (UNP, NSC) and Airfreight (FDX).
Growth lag: Uber (UBER) and Rental Cars (CAR).
Airline recovery: American Airlines (AAL) showing relative strength.
Key Anomalies
Extended Leaders:
R-10 Union Pacific (UNP): Strongly Bullish – INSTAT 100; +2.8% 1D, +8.3% 1W; dominant trend.
R-10 Norfolk Southern (NSC): Strongly Bullish – INSTAT 98; +3.1% 1D; rail volume optimism.
Deep Laggards:
R-10 Avis Budget Group (CAR.O): Bearish – INSTAT -100; -1.7% 1D; making new lows relative to group.
R-10 Uber (UBER.K): Bearish – INSTAT -98; failed to participate in the rally.
Contrarian Watch:
R-10 CH Robinson (CHRW.O): Bottoming? – -1.9% 1D but IN 50 suggests internal breadth might be stabilizing ahead of price.