INSTAT C Global Macro and Cross-Asset Daily Market Pulse Report, February 13, 2026
Risk-Off Regime Intensifies as Capital Flees to Safety
Executive Summary
The February 13, 2026, INSTAT C report depicts a global market firmly entrenched in a risk-off posture, driven by mounting growth concerns and a powerful “flight-to-safety.” The primary signal comes from the sovereign bond complex (R-01), where yields are falling sharply, particularly in the US (TNc1=), confirming a defensive bid for safe assets rather than a disinflationary rally. This is reinforced by strong inflows into high-grade bond ETFs (R-02) like LQD and BND, which are posting perfect INSTAT scores.
However, beneath the surface of this safety trade lie significant divergences that flash warning signs for the economic outlook. While safe havens like the Swiss Franc (R-04) and Gold (R-05, R-06) are clear leaders, cyclical assets are faltering. Crude Oil and Copper (R-05) are weak, and the Dow Transports (R-10) are flashing a “recession risk” signal, with freight and logistics names like CH Robinson collapsing. Furthermore, a spike in the “fear of fear” index (.VVIX) in R-03, alongside a sharp divergence between strong Gold and weak Silver (R-06), points to a market hedging against a potential shock or a “stagflation/recession” scenario.
Equity markets (R-07, R-08, R-09) reflect this rotation, with defensive, value-oriented indices (TSX, SMI) and country ETFs (South Korea, Japan) outperforming, while US growth benchmarks like the Nasdaq and mega-cap tech stocks (MSFT, AMZN) are deep laggards. In summary, the market is exhibiting a late-cycle defensive rotation: capital is hiding in quality duration, gold, and defensive equities, while simultaneously selling assets tied to economic growth and bidding up volatility hedges.
R-01 – 10Y Treasury Yields
Overview
The 10-year sovereign yield complex is firmly in “flight-to-safety” mode, with a clear downward bias in yields (bond prices rising) across most developed markets. The slice mean 1-Day change is -0.66% (basis points relative) and 1-Week is -1.37%, with a deeply negative INSTAT mean of -34.5. This confirms that the global rates complex is repricing growth expectations lower and bidding up safe assets. The United States 10-Year (TNc1=) is a notable laggard in yield terms (INSTAT -98), meaning the rally in Treasuries is entrenched and defensive, rather than a “good news” disinflation signal.
Dispersion is evident between core safe havens and idiosyncratic EM stories. While US, German, and UK yields are falling (prices up), Turkey (TR10YT) and Taiwan (TW10YT) are seeing yields rise (prices down), acting as outliers with positive INSTAT scores. The broad “red” on the screen for yield changes (negative 1D/1W) reinforces a risk-off macro backdrop where capital is hiding in sovereign debt.
Leaders and Laggards
Leaders (Rising Yields/Weak Bonds):
Turkey 10-Year (TR10YT=RR): The clear outlier with rising yields (INSTAT 87, 1D +7.1%).
Taiwan 10-Year (TW10YT=RR): Holding firm with positive 1M trend (INSTAT 72).
Laggards (Falling Yields/Strong Bonds):
United States 10-Year (TNc1=): Yields breaking down (INSTAT -98), confirming safe-haven bid.
Germany 10-Year (DE10YT=RR): Core EU yields falling in sympathy (INSTAT -46).
Hong Kong 10-Year (HK10YT=RR): Deep deflationary signal (INSTAT -100).
Key Anomalies
R-01 | Turkey 10-Year (TR10YT=RR)
Strongly Bullish (Yields): Extended upside move (+6.9% 1W) against a global drop in rates.
R-01 | United States 10-Year (TNc1=)
Deep Laggard (Yields): INSTAT -98 with persistent negative 1D/1W changes. A pure “risk-off” signal.
R-01 | Norway 10-Year (NO10YT=RR)
Contrarian Watch: Yields fell today (-1.4%) but 1W trend remains positive (+1.8%) and IN is maxed at 50. Potential higher low in yields.
R-02 – Bond Market
Overview
The bond ETF complex is confirming the signal from R-01, posting a Strongly Bullish tone with a mean INSTAT of 67.5. Capital is aggressively rotating into high-grade duration. Investment Grade (IG) credit and total bond market proxies are the leaders, with tickers like LQD and BND hitting perfect INSTAT 100 scores. This is a classic “defensive relative strength” setup; while equities wobble, bonds are catching a forceful bid.
There is virtually no stress in the high-grade space, but High Yield (HY) is starting to diverge slightly. While IG funds like QLTA.K are making new highs, some HY proxies like HYS are lagging (INSTAT -82), hinting that credit spreads may be widening beneath the surface. The “risk-off” nature of this rally is confirmed by the outperformance of safe duration over credit risk.
Leaders and Laggards
Leaders (Defensive Bid):
iShares Investment Grade Corp (LQD): Perfect INSTAT 100, +0.9% 1W. The “go-to” safe haven.
Vanguard Total Bond (BND.O): Broad participation (INSTAT 100), confirming the move is systemic.
Laggards (Credit Risk):
PIMCO 0-5Y High Yield (HYS): Flat to weak (INSTAT -82), showing reluctance to chase junk debt.
Embecta Corp (EMBC.O): An idiosyncratic single-name blowup (-6.4% 1W, INSTAT -70).
Key Anomalies
R-02 | Embecta Corp (EMBC.O)
Deep Laggard: Crashing (-6.4% 1W) with INSTAT -70. Avoid.
R-03 – Credit Analysis
Overview
The Credit Analysis slice flashes a warning for risk assets. While corporate bond ETFs (IGIB, LQDB) remain strong (confirming the R-02 narrative), the Volatility complex has awakened. .VVIX (Volatility of VIX) is the top leader with an INSTAT of 100 and a +14.6% 1W surge, accompanied by the VIX itself (+16% 1W). This rising volatility alongside tightening credit spreads in high-grade paper suggests a market hedging against a shock while parking cash in safety.
Dispersion is high: Safe credit is “Bullish,” but risk proxies like High Yield Financials (XHYF.K) are “Bearish/Repair” (INSTAT -97). This bifurcation—buying safety, selling beta—is the definition of a late-cycle defensive rotation.
Leaders and Laggards
Leaders (Fear/Safety):
CBOE Vix Volatility (.VVIX): The “fear of fear” index is surging (INSTAT 100), a leading indicator of stress.
iShares Aaa-A Corp (QLTA.K): High-quality paper bid (INSTAT 100).
Laggards (Risk Unwind):
BondBloxx HY Financials (XHYF.K): Selling off (INSTAT -97).
Simplify High Yield (CDX): Weak structure (INSTAT -73).
Key Anomalies
R-03 | CBOE Vix Volatility (.VVIX)
Strongly Bullish / Extended: Up +14.6% 1W. Extreme hedging demand.
R-03 | BondBloxx US HY Energy (XHYE.K)
Contrarian Watch: Flat 1D but INSTAT is 100. Energy credit is holding up better than Financials.
R-04 – Forex
Overview
The Forex slice is in a “mixed/defensive” regime (Mean INSTAT 41). The leaders are the classic safe havens: Swiss Franc (CHF) and Singapore Dollar (SGD), both boasting INSTAT 100 scores. This reinforces the global “flight to safety” theme seen in Bonds and Gold. The US Dollar is generally soft against these havens but holding against EM risk currencies like the Indonesian Rupiah (IDR) and Turkish Lira (TRY), which are laggards.
The Mexican Peso (MXN) is a notable outlier, showing strength (INSTAT 96) despite the risk-off backdrop, perhaps decoupling on specific regional flows. However, the broad texture is defensive: high-beta currencies are struggling while stable balance-sheet sovereigns outperform.
Leaders and Laggards
Leaders (Safe Havens):
Swiss Franc (CHF/USD): The premier safe haven (INSTAT 100, +1.0% 1W).
Singapore Dollar (SGD/USD): Asian safe harbor (INSTAT 100).
Laggards (EM Weakness):
Turkish Lira (TRY/USD): Perpetual weakness (INSTAT -88).
Indonesian Rupiah (IDR/USD): Slight drift lower (INSTAT -66).
Key Anomalies
R-04 | Hong Kong Dollar (HKD/USD)
Deep Laggard: Peg stress or liquidity drain? INSTAT -50.
R-04 | Canadian Dollar (CAD/USD)
Contrarian Watch: 1D weakness (-0.07%) but IN is positive (48). A potential buy-the-dip candidate if oil stabilizes.
R-05 – Commodities
Overview
Commodities are split between a “Bullish” precious metals/softs complex and a “Bearish/Repair” energy/industrial complex. The aggregate mean INSTAT is a neutral 5.9, masking this divide. Gold (GC/XAU) is the standout leader (INSTAT 99), correlating perfectly with the drop in real yields (R-01) and the rise in volatility (R-03). Soybeans (ZS) have also broken out (INSTAT 100, +1.7% 1W), acting as an uncorrelated alpha source.
Conversely, “growth” commodities like Copper (HG) and Crude Oil (CL) are weak, with negative 1W returns, confirming the global growth scare implied by the bond market. The commodity complex is not signaling “inflation”—it is signaling “stagflation” or “recession risk” where only gold and food work.
Leaders and Laggards
Leaders (Defensive/Ags):
US Soybeans (ZS): Breakout mode (INSTAT 100).
Gold Futures (GC): Safe haven bid (INSTAT 99, +2.1% 1D).
Laggards (Cyclical Growth):
Palladium (PA): Industrial demand collapsing (INSTAT -94, -6.6% 1W).
Crude Oil (CL): Weak demand signal (INSTAT -25).
Key Anomalies
R-05 | US Soybeans (ZS)
Strongly Bullish: Clear breakout relative to the complex.
R-05 | Palladium (PA)
Deep Laggard: INSTAT -94. No bottom yet.
R-06 – Gold & Silver
Overview
This slice is Strongly Bullish (Mean INSTAT 49, but leaders are 100). The miners (GDX, GDXJ) are acting as high-beta leverage to the spot gold price, posting robust 1W gains (+6-7%) and perfect INSTAT 100 scores. This confirms that the move in gold is not just a futures squeeze but is supported by equity capital flows into the producers.
However, Silver (SLV, AGQ) is diverging sharply negatively (INSTAT -32 to -47), acting more like an industrial metal (Copper) than a monetary metal. This Gold/Silver ratio expansion is a classic recession warning.
Leaders and Laggards
Leaders (Gold Miners):
VanEck Gold Miners (GDX): Powerful leverage (INSTAT 100, +6.7% 1W).
iShares Gold Trust (IAU): Spot tracking well (INSTAT 100).
Laggards (Silver/Industrial):
ProShares Ultra Silver (AGQ): Crashing (-2.5% 1W, INSTAT -47).
iShares Silver Trust (SLV): Dragged down by industrial weakness.
Key Anomalies
R-06 | VanEck Gold Miners (GDX)
Strongly Bullish / Extended: +5.8% today alone. Chase with caution; INSTAT 100 implies euphoria.
R-06 | iShares Silver Trust (SLV)
Deep Laggard: INSTAT -32 despite Gold’s rally. Industrial weakness is the driver.
R-07 – Exchange Indexes
Overview
Global equities are in a “Repair/Mixed” phase (Mean INSTAT 26). The “risk-off” tone is evident: The leaders are defensive/commodity-heavy indices like the TSX (Canada), SMI (Switzerland), and FTSE 100 (UK)—all INSTAT 100. These markets are heavily weighted in the sectors working today (Gold, Materials, Defensive Pharma).
The laggards are the growth engines: Nasdaq (.IXIC) and S&P 500 (US500). Both have negative 1W returns (-2.1% and -1.4% respectively) and weak INSTAT scores (-46 and -30). The “Repair” classification applies here: today’s 1D action was flat, suggesting the selling has paused, but the 1W trend remains broken.
Leaders and Laggards
Leaders (Value/Defensive):
S&P/TSX Composite (.GSPTSE): Gold/Materials bid lifting the index (INSTAT 100).
SMI (SWI20): Swiss defensive strength (INSTAT 100).
Laggards (Growth/Tech):
Nasdaq Composite (.IXIC): Tech wreck continuing (INSTAT -46).
S&P Merval (.MERV): Argentina volatility (-5.4% 1W).
Key Anomalies
R-07 | KOSPI (.KS11)
Strongly Bullish / Extended: +8.2% 1W surge. Outperforming all Asia.
R-07 | Nasdaq Composite (.IXIC)
Deep Laggard: Down -2.1% on the week with INSTAT -46. No confirmed bottom yet.
R-08 – Country ETFs
Overview
Similar to R-07, the Country ETF space shows a rotation from US/Growth to International/Value. South Korea (EWY) is the absolute leader (INSTAT 100, +7.4% 1W), likely driven by semiconductor value hunting or specific idiosyncratic flows (e.g., KOSPI reforms). Japan (EWJ) and Mexico (EWW) are also Strong Bullish.
The US (SPY) is a laggard here (INSTAT -30, -1.3% 1W), underperforming the global average. This is a rare “US underperformance” day, consistent with the rate-cut/recession trade where the dollar weakens and capital seeks cheaper valuations abroad.
Leaders and Laggards
Leaders (Asia/Value):
South Korea (EWY): Massive relative strength (INSTAT 100).
Japan (EWJ): Yen strength or value bid helping (INSTAT 100).
Laggards (EM/US):
Indonesia (EIDO.K): Weak structure (INSTAT -97).
SPY (US S&P 500): Stuck in correction mode (INSTAT -30).
Key Anomalies
R-08 | iShares South Korea (EWY)
Strongly Bullish / Extended: +7.4% 1W. Very stretched momentum.
R-08 | iShares Belgium (EWK)
Contrarian Watch: Flat 1D but INSTAT 75 and +2.6% 1W. quietly accumulating.
R-09 – DJIA Dow Industrials
Overview
The Dow is “Neutral/Mixed” (Mean INSTAT 11.6). It is being held up by defensive heavyweights. Boeing (BA), Amgen (AMGN), and Walmart (WMT) are leaders (INSTAT 90-100), representing steady cash flows or idiosyncratic turnaround plays.
However, the “Generals” are shot. Microsoft (MSFT) is a shock laggard with an INSTAT of -98 and flat performance, signaling dead money. Amazon (AMZN) is even worse (INSTAT -81, -5.5% 1W). The rotation out of Mega-Cap Tech is the dominant drag on the index.
Leaders and Laggards
Leaders (Defensive/Old Economy):
Boeing (BA): Surprising resilience (INSTAT 100).
Caterpillar (CAT): Infrastructure spend bid (INSTAT 82, +6.6% 1W).
Laggards (Big Tech/Consumer):
Microsoft (MSFT): Institutional distribution (INSTAT -98).
Visa (V): Consumer spending concerns? (INSTAT -82).
Key Anomalies
R-09 | Caterpillar (CAT)
Strongly Bullish: Diverging from the broad market with +6.6% 1W strength.
R-09 | Microsoft (MSFT)
Deep Laggard: Rare to see MSFT with INSTAT -98. Major warning sign for the broad index.
R-10 – DJTA Dow Transports
Overview
The Transports are the weakest link, screaming “Recession Risk.” The Mean INSTAT is 26.9, but the Leaders/Laggards split is telling. While Norfolk Southern (NSC) and Matson (MATX) are holding up (INSTAT 100), the gig-economy and consumer-transport names are being liquidated. Uber (UBER) is a Deep Laggard (INSTAT -91, -6.4% 1W). Landstar (LSTR) and Expeditors (EXPD) are also down significantly on the week (-11% to -12%), signaling a collapse in freight demand/pricing power.
This slice confirms the negative signal from Oil (R-05) and Copper: the physical economy is slowing down faster than the defensive rotation suggests.
Leaders and Laggards
Leaders (Rail/Shipping):
Norfolk Southern (NSC): PSR/Activist story? (INSTAT 100).
Matson (MATX.K): Shipping rates holding (INSTAT 100).
Laggards (Logistics/Gig):
Uber (UBER.K): Growth unwind (INSTAT -91).
CH Robinson (CHRW.O): Freight recession (-12.2% 1W).
Key Anomalies
R-10 | CH Robinson (CHRW.O)
Deep Laggard / Repair?: Down -12% on the week, but today +4.9%. This is a classic “dead cat bounce” or short-covering pop in a broken trend.
R-10 | Matson (MATX.K)
Contrarian Watch: Down -0.5% on 1W but INSTAT 100. Relative stability is bullish.
“Repair Phase” Explained
In the context of the INSTAT capital flow reports, a “Repair Phase” is a transitional market condition that occurs immediately following a significant drawdown or structural breakdown.
It represents the period where the “bleeding stops”—selling pressure exhausts itself, and an asset begins to stabilize—but has not yet established a confirmed new uptrend.
Key Characteristics
Price Action Stabilization: The asset stops making lower lows and begins to trade sideways or drift slightly higher. It is effectively trying to build a “floor” or base after a sharp decline.
Technical Reclamation: The price attempts to reclaim short-term moving averages (such as the 10-day or 20-day EMA) that were lost during the sell-off.
Internal Divergence (INSTAT context): In my reporting framework, a Repair Phase is often flagged when price is still flat or slightly negative, but internal scores (IN/INSTAT) begin to rise off depressed levels (e.g., moving from -100 toward -50). This indicates that breadth is improving and aggressive distribution has ceased, even if the headline price hasn’t surged yet.
Psychology: It marks the shift from “Panic/Liquidation” to “Tentative Holding/Accumulation.” Investors stop selling into strength and start holding positions, reducing volatility.
Distinction from “Recovery” or “Bullish Trend”
Repair: The chart is “fixing” the damage. Resistance levels overhead (supply) are still formidable. The goal is stability.
Recovery/Trend: The chart has fixed the damage and is now making higher highs with momentum. The goal is appreciation.
Example in the INSTAT C Reporting
If a stock drops 15% in a month (Bearish), then spends the next week trading flat with low volatility, it has entered a Repair Phase. It is no longer “crashing,” but it is not yet “rallying.”
(Note: In options trading, “Stock Repair” refers specifically to a ratio spread strategy used to lower the breakeven price of a losing position, but in my narrative reports, it strictly refers to the technical stabilization described above.)