INSTAT C Global Macro and Cross-Asset Daily Market Pulse Report, February 11, 2026
The Great Rotation: Exiting Tech Giants to Ride the Cyclical Boom.
Executive Summary:
Global markets are undergoing a violent, conviction-driven sector rotation, not a broad risk-off unwind. The trading session is defined by a clear barbell: capital is aggressively exiting US tech megacaps and duration-sensitive assets while rotating into commodity-linked cyclicals, international equities, and Emerging Market FX. The “plumbing” of the market remains healthy—credit spreads are tightening, volatility is being crushed, and reflation signals are flashing across industrial metals and global yields.
Rates & Rates: The 10-year Treasury complex is repricing higher (+1.11% 1D), snapping a week of easing. The move is tactical “risk-on,” led by European and peripheral yields, while Asian yields (China, Hong Kong) remain suppressed by deflationary/policy drag. The US 10-year is in repair mode.
Credit: Robust risk appetite persists. Spreads are tightening in cyclical sectors (Energy HY, CMBS), with INSTAT scores at maximum bullish sentiment (100). VIX is a deep laggard, confirming equity complacency despite tech weakness.
FX & Commodities: A weak USD is fueling EM FX leaders (THB, MYR, MXN) while industrial metals (Nickel, Copper) and Gold surge. Soft commodities (Cocoa, Sugar) are being violently liquidated—this is an industrial reflation trade, not a broad inflationary shock.
Equities: The rotation is stark. Resource-heavy indices (Mexico, TSX, Australia) and single-country ETFs (South Korea +8.57% 1W) are leaders. The Nasdaq and US large-cap core (SPY) are laggards. Dow internals show Caterpillar (+12% 1W) versus Amazon (-12% 1W)—a historic factor divergence. Transports confirm the split: rails strong, airlines/ride-share weak.
Gold & Miners: The strongest performing slice today (+3.01% 1D). Junior miners (GDXJ) are exhibiting explosive momentum, leveraging the breakout in physical gold. Silver is in “slingshot” repair mode, clearing weak hands.
Key Risk: The rotation’s sustainability hinges on whether today’s yield backup holds. A continued rise in real rates could pressure the cyclical trade and reignite volatility. Presently, however, the market is signaling a clear preference for “Old Economy” tangible assets over “New Economy” secular growth.
R-01: 10Y Treasury Yields
Overview
The rates complex is repricing higher today, with the 10-year yield slice posting a mean 1D move of +1.11%, snapping back against a broader 1W trend of easing yields (mean 1W -0.75%). This shift suggests a tactical “risk-on” rotation where capital is rotating out of safe-haven duration and into riskier assets, particularly as the equity landscape pivots toward value and cyclicals. The move is led by European and peripheral yields, with Switzerland (CH10YT) and Norway (NO10YT) showing significant 1D upside volatility, contrasting sharply with the suppression seen in Asian yields.
The dispersion is notable, with “risk” yields rising while safe-haven/managed yields in Asia lag. Chinese (CN10YT) and Hong Kong (HK10YT) yields remain deep laggards, extending negative 1W trends and reflecting ongoing deflationary or policy-driven suppression in that region. The US 10Y (TNc1) participated in the uplift (1D +0.68%) but remains in repair mode on a weekly basis, failing to break the broader 1M consolidation.
Leaders and Laggards
Pro-Risk/Cyclical Leadership: Norway 10Y and Turkey 10Y yields are rising, signaling localized inflation or growth repricing. Switzerland 10Y saw an outsized 1D spike (+23.81%), likely a volatility anomaly or sharp repricing from a low base.
Defensive/Policy Suppression: Hong Kong and China 10Y yields are clear laggards, continuing to drift lower (HK10YT -5.60% 1W) amidst a lack of growth impulse.
Repair Phase: The US 10Y and Australian 10Y yields are bouncing today but remain negative over the 1W horizon.
Key Anomalies
Deep Laggards: Hong Kong 10-Year (HK10YT) – INSTAT -100; weak 1D/1W dynamics confirm entrenched downtrend.
Deep Laggards: China 10-Year (CN10YT) – INSTAT -93; persistent weakness diverging from the global reflationary pulse.
Contrarian Watch: US 10-Year (TNc1) – Negative 1W (-2.45%) but stabilizing 1D; closely monitor if today’s yield bump sustains against the 1M backdrop.
R-02: Bond Market
Overview
Bond prices are generally softer today (mean 1D -0.22%) as yields back up, validating the “risk-on” tone seen in equities and commodities. However, the 1W trend remains positive (mean +0.23%), suggesting today is a tactical pullback within a constructive monthly setup. Leadership is concentrated in international and emerging market debt, with the SPDR Bloomberg International Treasury (BWX) and Vanguard Emerging Markets Bond (VWOB) ETFs outperforming, reinforcing the theme of a weaker USD aiding global credit.
Conversely, duration-sensitive instruments are underperforming. The long end of the curve, represented by PIMCO 25+ Year Zero Coupon (ZROZ), is lagging on a 1D basis, acting as the primary funding source for the rotation into risk. High-yield municipal bonds (HYD) and floating rate exposures are flat to weak, showing little participation in today’s cyclical optimism.
Leaders and Laggards
Global Reach Leaders: BWX (International Treasury) and VWOB (Emerging Markets) are holding up best, benefiting from FX tailwinds.
Credit Niche: BondBloxx Private Credit CLO (PCMM) remains steady, indicating appetite for yield without duration risk.
Duration Laggards: ZROZ (25+ Year Zero) dropped nearly 1% today, surrendering some of its strong 1W gains.
Idiosyncratic Stress: Embecta Corp (EMBC.O) appears as a severe outlier in this slice, collapsing -11% on the week with deeply negative INSTAT (-96).
Key Anomalies
Deep Laggard: Embecta Corp (EMBC.O) – INSTAT -96; severe 1W deterioration (-11.28%) signals capitulation.
Deep Laggard: PIMCO 25+ Year Zero Coupon (ZROZ) – INSTAT -18; negative 1D reaction highlights sensitivity to today’s rate backup.
R-03: Credit Analysis
Overview
Credit markets are signaling robust risk appetite, with the slice generating positive returns across both 1D (+0.13%) and 1W (+0.59%) horizons. Spreads are tightening, particularly in cyclical sectors like Energy High Yield (XHYE) and Commercial MBS (CMBS), which are trading at maximum bullish sentiment (INSTAT 100). This behavior confirms that the equity dip in tech is not a systemic credit event but a rotation; the “plumbing” of the market remains healthy.
Volatility is being crushed, further supporting the bullish credit narrative. The VIX is a deep laggard, down over 5% on the week, while the MOVE index (bond volatility) spiked today but remains structurally contained relative to recent history. The divergent behavior between rising bond volatility (MOVE) and falling equity volatility (VIX) underscores the rotation: rates are moving, but corporate credit risk is viewed as benign.
Leaders and Laggards
Cyclical Tightening: iShares CMBS (CMBS) and BondBloxx Energy HY (XHYE) are clear leaders with INSTAT 100, reflecting confidence in the real economy.
Value Plays: VanEck Fallen Angel (ANGL) is outperforming broad high yield, attracting capital seeking quality-adjusted yield.
Volatility Compressors: VIX is the primary laggard, drifting lower to near-term support, which is supportive for risk assets.
Rate Sensitive: Mortgage-backed securities and broad treasuries (BBIB) are lagging slightly due to the rates backup.
Key Anomalies
Extended Leaders: iShares CMBS ETF (CMBS.K) – INSTAT 100; strong breakout behavior.
Extended Leaders: BondBloxx US High Yield Energy (XHYE.K) – INSTAT 100; verifying the commodity bid.
Deep Laggard: CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) – INSTAT -6; depressed levels confirm complacent/bullish equity sentiment despite tech weakness.
R-04: Forex
Overview
The currency markets are reinforcing a broad “weak USD / strong Risk” narrative. The slice posted a mean 1W gain of +0.73%, led by Emerging Market and Asian currencies. The Thai Baht (THB), Malaysian Ringgit (MYR), and Mexican Peso (MXN) are surging against the dollar, with INSTAT scores essentially maxed out. This aligns with the strength seen in commodities and global ex-US equities, suggesting capital is flowing out of the USD safe-haven and into global growth proxies.
Laggards are idiosyncratic rather than systemic. The Indian Rupee (INR) and Hong Kong Dollar (HKD) are soft, decoupling from the broader Asian strength. The British Pound (GBP) is also stalling, acting as a laggard among majors. The overall picture is one of ample global liquidity fueling a search for yield in EM FX, while the USD acts as the funding currency for this rotation.
Leaders and Laggards
EM Risk-On: THB, MYR, and MXN are aggressive leaders, confirming the “Asia/Resource” bid.
LatAm Strength: BRL (Real) and MXN (Peso) are outperforming, supported by the commodity complex strength.
Idiosyncratic Weakness: INR and TRY (Lira) remain weak, failing to participate in the broad EM rally.
Key Anomalies
Extended Leader: THB/USD (Thai Baht) – INSTAT 100; 1W gain >2% is significant for a currency pair, watch for exhaustion.
Deep Laggard: INR/USD (Indian Rupee) – INSTAT -85; continuing to drift lower despite regional strength.
R-05: Commodities
Overview
The commodity complex is roaring back, serving as a primary engine for today’s market action (mean 1D +1.05%). Leaders are concentrated in “hard” assets: Industrial Metals (Nickel, Copper) and Precious Metals (Gold spot and futures) are all trading with INSTAT 100. This synchronous move suggests a reflationary impulse is being priced in, likely driven by the weaker USD and resilient global growth expectations.
In stark contrast, “soft” commodities are being liquidated. Cocoa (CC), Sugar (SB), and Coffee (KC) are in deep repair, with Cocoa down nearly 8% on the week. This bifurcation—hard assets up, softs down—clarifies that the move is about industrial demand and monetary debasement (Gold), rather than a broad-based weather or supply-shock event in agriculture.
Leaders and Laggards
Industrial/Monetary Lead: Nickel (+4% 1W) and Gold (+3.2% 1W) are extending strong uptrends. Copper is confirming the growth narrative.
Protein Strength: Live Cattle (LC) is joining the leaders, suggesting firm consumer demand.
Softs Collapse: Cocoa, Sugar, and Coffee are suffering deep corrections, acting as the clear funding shorts in this sector.
Key Anomalies
Extended Leader: Silver Futures (SI) – INSTAT 85; jumped nearly 5% today, playing catch-up to Gold with high velocity.
Deep Laggard: US Cocoa Futures (CC) – INSTAT -100; down ~8% 1W, violent unwind of prior trend.
Deep Laggard: Natural Gas (NG) – INSTAT -25; despite a 1D bounce, the 1W trend (-7.7%) remains broken.
R-06: Gold & Silver
Overview
The precious metals equity slice is the strongest performing group today (mean 1D +3.01%), with miners aggressively outpacing physical metal. Junior Miners (GDXJ) and Senior Miners (GDX) are showing explosive momentum (1W >7%), confirming the breakout in spot Gold. INSTAT scores are pegged at 100 for the miners, indicating a high-conviction move where equity leverage to the underlying commodity is being rewarded.
Silver-related assets (SLV, SIVR) are in “repair-to-rally” mode. After a tough week (1W -3% to -7%), they are surging today (1D +4% to +8%), creating a classic “slingshot” setup. This volatility suggests Silver is clearing out weak hands before attempting to rejoin Gold’s uptrend. The disconnect between Gold’s steady grind and Silver’s violent snapback is the key tactical dynamic here.
Leaders and Laggards
Mining Beta: GDXJ and GDX are the undisputed leaders, offering the best leverage to the macro metal trade.
Physical Steady: Gold Trusts (PHYS, IAU) are grinding higher with perfect INSTAT scores (100).
Silver Volatility: ProShares Ultra Silver (AGQ) and SLV are technically 1W laggards due to prior weakness, but are the 1D performance leaders.
Key Anomalies
Extended Leader: VanEck Junior Gold Miners (GDXJ) – INSTAT 100; +8.29% 1W is stretched, but momentum is extreme.
Contrarian Watch: iShares Silver Trust (SLV) – Negative 1W but strong 1D (+4.28%) and rising INSTAT (85); potentially completing a wash-out low.
R-07: Exchange Indexes
Overview
Global equities are rotating, not retreating. The slice (mean 1D +0.32%) shows a distinct pivot toward resource-heavy and value-oriented indices. The leaders are the Dow Jones Mexico, Canada’s TSX, and Australia’s ASX—all indices heavily weighted toward mining, energy, and financials. This aligns perfectly with the commodity and bond-yield signals discussed above.
The laggards are the duration-sensitive growth indices. The NASDAQ Composite (.IXIC) is flat-to-down today and soft on the week, struggling with the backup in yields. European indices (DAX, Italy) are also pausing. The S&P 500 is caught in the middle, dragged down by tech but supported by energy/industrials. This is a classic “Old Economy” vs. “New Economy” split day.
Leaders and Laggards
Resource Heavyweights: Mexico, TSX, and ASX are outperforming, capitalizing on the commodity boom.
Defensive Value: Switzerland’s SMI is also performing well, acting as a quality compounder.
Growth Drag: Nasdaq and HNX (Vietnam) are lagging, pressured by higher rates and sector rotation.
Key Anomalies
Deep Laggard: HNX Index (.HNXI) – INSTAT 14; weak 1W (-3.79%) differentiates it from other Asian markets.
Laggard Watch: NASDAQ Composite (.IXIC) – INSTAT -32; negative bias is growing, threatening the 1M trend.
R-08: Country ETFs
Overview
The single-country ETF slice mirrors the index level but with even sharper dispersion (mean 1W +2.24%). South Korea (EWY) is the standout “super-anomaly,” ripping nearly 5% today and over 8% on the week, likely driven by specific sector strength (semiconductors/memory) or a valuation reset. Norway (ENOR) and Mexico (EWW) follow, riding the energy/oil tailwind.
Europe is the source of weakness. Ireland (EIRL) and Greece (GREK) are lagging, down over 2% on the week. The SPY (S&P 500 ETF) is languishing near the bottom of the relative performance table (INSTAT 32), confirming that the US large-cap core is not the place to be for alpha right now—global ex-US cyclicals are the superior trade.
Leaders and Laggards
Asian Tiger: South Korea (EWY) is the absolute leader, showing explosive separation from the pack.
Commodity Proxies: Norway (ENOR), Mexico (EWW), South Africa (EZA) are strong.
Euro Periphery Weakness: Greece and Ireland are seeing profit-taking or rotation outflows.
Key Anomalies
Extended Leader: iShares South Korea (EWY) – INSTAT 100; +8.57% 1W is an extreme move, check for short-term exhaustion.
Extended Leader: iShares Japan (EWJ) – INSTAT 96; +7.40% 1W confirms the Asian bid.
Deep Laggard: Global X MSCI Greece (GREK) – INSTAT 1; failed to participate in the global rally.
R-09: DJIA Dow Industrials
Overview
The Dow Industrials slice (mean 1D -0.17%) perfectly encapsulates the rotation theme. While the headline index is flat, the internals are violent. “Old Economy” stalwarts like Caterpillar (CAT), Verizon (VZ), and Chevron (CVX) are surging, with CAT up 12% on the week and INSTAT 100. These names are beneficiaries of the reflation/infrastructure trade.
Conversely, “New Economy” and consumer-facing tech names are being sold. Salesforce (CRM), Microsoft (MSFT), and Amazon (AMZN) are deep laggards, with Amazon down over 12% on the week. The divergence is extreme: capital is fleeing high-multiple tech and hiding in telecom yield and heavy machinery.
Leaders and Laggards
Industrial/Yield Leaders: Caterpillar, Verizon, Chevron, Home Depot.
Tech/Growth Laggards: Salesforce, Microsoft, Amazon, Nike.
Rotation Victim: Disney (DIS) is also weak, caught in the consumer discretionary selloff.
Key Anomalies
Extended Leader: Caterpillar (CAT) – INSTAT 100; +12% 1W is a massive breakout, possibly earnings-driven.
Deep Laggard: Amazon (AMZN) – INSTAT -82; -12.44% 1W signifies a major trend break.
Deep Laggard: Salesforce (CRM) – INSTAT -92; heavy distribution continuing.
Deep Laggard: IBM – INSTAT -62; sharp 1D drop (-6.5%) adds to the tech gloom.
R-10: DJTA Dow Transports
Overview
Transport activity is mixed (mean 1D -0.71%), defined by a split between legacy rails and modern mobility. The railroads—Union Pacific (UNP), CSX, Norfolk Southern (NSC)—are the clear leaders, acting as defensive/quality cyclicals with strong INSTAT scores. They track the industrial strength seen in CAT.
However, the “mobility” and travel segment is under heavy pressure. Uber (UBER), Avis (CAR), and the Airlines (AAL, LUV, DAL) are deep laggards. American Airlines is down 5% today. This suggests the market is betting on freight and goods movement (Rails/Trucks) but fading passenger travel and high-beta platform stocks.
Leaders and Laggards
Rail Strength: UNP, UPS, CSX are providing stability and leadership.
Trucking: Landstar (LSTR) is holding up well.
Travel Weakness: Uber, Avis, and Airlines are being liquidated, acting as the high-beta short within the sector.
Key Anomalies
Deep Laggard: Uber Technologies (UBER) – INSTAT -95; breakdown in the mobility thesis.
Deep Laggard: Avis Budget Group (CAR) – INSTAT -94; confirming the weak consumer travel signal.
Deep Laggard: American Airlines (AAL) – INSTAT -29; -5% 1D move signals renewed stress in aviation.