INSTAT C Global Macro and Cross-Asset Daily Market Pulse Report, February 9, 2026
Risk-On Rotation Extends Across Equities and FX; Fixed Income and Commodities Show Selective Weakness
Executive Summary:
Global markets on February 9, 2026, reflect a pronounced shift toward risk-on sentiment, supported by liquidity flows and cyclical rotations. While equities, particularly in emerging markets and commodities-exposed regions, show strong bullish momentum, fixed income exhibits mixed-to-weak signals amid a broader reallocation from safe-haven assets.
Key themes include:
Equity strength in EM indices, country ETFs, and cyclical sectors, led by Latin America, Asia, and transport stocks.
Gold and silver surge as safe-haven hedges within a risk-on backdrop, supported by strong flows into miners and physical metals.
FX bullishness vs. USD, driven by high-beta EM currencies, though with pockets of local stress in TRY and INR.
Mixed signals in bonds and credit, with high yield and convertibles showing modest support while sovereign yields in DM peripherals lag.
Commodities remain uneven, with energy and metals advancing but softs and ags under pressure, highlighting sectoral dispersion.
Overall, the tape suggests a coordinated but selective pro-risk rotation, extending one-month uptrends in equities and precious metals, while fixed income and parts of the commodity complex face headwinds.
R-01 – 10Y Treasury Yields
The 10Y sovereign yields slice shows mixed short-term signals with average 1D return at +0.62% and 1W at +0.73%, but depressed AT (-8.9), ST (-7.5), IN (10.6), and INSTAT (-5.8) scores indicating overall weakness. Breadth is polarized, with EM yields like Turkey and South Korea leading pro-risk rallies amid global liquidity support, while DM peripherals (Italy, China, Singapore) lag sharply, reflecting defensive unwinds in a risk-on equity backdrop. This fits a broader capital flows narrative favoring cyclical yield curves over safe-haven anchors, though against a flat-to-soft 1M tape as secondary context.
Leaders cluster in high-beta EM (Turkey +6.9% 1D, INSTAT 98), with dispersion highlighting repricing for higher term premia in select regions. Laggards dominate DM ex-core, underscoring repair needs amid equity strength elsewhere. Volatility in yields reinforces cross-asset risk-on, but low IN suggests tentative stabilization only.
Leaders: Turkey 10-Year (TR10YT=RR, +6.9% 1D/+8.7% 1W, INSTAT 98, pro-risk EM leadership); South Korea 10-Year (KR10YT=RR, +0.8% 1D/+4.4% 1W, INSTAT 100).
Laggards: Singapore 10-Year (SG10YT=RR, -4.7% 1W, INSTAT -100, defensive unwind); Italy 10-Year (IT10YT=RR, -0.5% 1D/-0.8% 1W, INSTAT -98).
Extended leaders: R-01 Turkey 10-Year (TR10YT=RR), strongly bullish short-term extended (INSTAT 98, very strong 1D/1W).
Deep laggards: R-01 Singapore 10-Year (SG10YT=RR), strongly bearish (INSTAT -100, weak 1W).
Potential contrarian: R-01 Switzerland 10-Year (CH10YT=RR), contrarian watch (+3.9% 1D/+11.4% 1W but INSTAT 43 rising).
Classification: Neutral/Mixed
R-02 – Bond Market
Bond market slice exhibits soft stability with average 1D -0.11% and 1W +0.24%, AT (17.7 positive), ST (18.5 positive), but low IN (12.4) and INSTAT (48.6) signaling neutral breadth. Leaders in HY and convertibles (HYG, ICVT) show modest risk-on support, while laggards like Embecta and short Treasuries highlight credit stress pockets. This aligns with equity risk-on but liquidity caution, as bonds stabilize post-1M flatness providing contextual backdrop.
Dispersion reflects selective HY tightness amid broader IG caution, fitting capital rotation to equities/commodities. Overall, choppy 1D/1W vs. supportive AT/ST points to mixed repair phase.
Leaders: iShares iBoxx $ High Yield Corporate Bond ETF (HYG, +0.1% 1D/+0.2% 1W, INSTAT 100); iShares Convertible Bond ETF (ICVT.K, +0.7% 1D/+1.1% 1W, INSTAT 98).
Laggards: Embecta Corp (EMBC.O, -5.1% 1D/-5.8% 1W, INSTAT -100); iShares 0-3 Month Treasury Bond ETF (SGOV.K, INSTAT -62).
Extended leaders: R-02 iShares iBoxx $ High Yield Corporate Bond ETF (HYG), moderately bullish (INSTAT 100, supportive short-term).
Deep laggards: R-02 Embecta Corp (EMBC.O), strongly bearish (INSTAT -100, sharp 1D/1W air-pocket).
Potential contrarian: None prominent.
Classification: Neutral/Mixed
R-03 – Credit Analysis
Credit slice leans neutral with 1D -0.05% and 1W +0.95%, mixed AT (12.3), ST (11.6), IN (19.2), INSTAT (43.1). HY energy/IG leaders (XHYE.K, CMBS.K) edge higher on cyclical flows, but vol (VVIX) and some HY lag, showing choppy risk appetite. Ties into equity/transport strength but vol repair against 1M gains as backdrop.
MOVE index +2.4% 1D flags term premia rise, reinforcing cross-asset rotation from fixed income. Conflicting signals yield mixed profile.
Leaders: BondBloxx US High Yield Energy Sector ETF (XHYE.K, +0.3% 1D/+0.8% 1W, INSTAT 100); iShares CMBS ETF (CMBS.K, INSTAT 100).
Laggards: Simplify High Yield ETF (CDX, -0.5% 1W, INSTAT -92); CBOE Vix Volatility (.VVIX, -2.4% 1D, INSTAT -49).
Extended leaders: R-03 BondBloxx US High Yield Energy Sector ETF (XHYE.K), moderately bullish short-term extended.
Deep laggards: R-03 Simplify High Yield ETF (CDX), bearish/repair (INSTAT -92).
Potential contrarian: None prominent.
Classification: Neutral/Mixed
R-04 – Forex
FX slice tilts bullish vs USD with 1D +0.54% and 1W +0.65%, positive AT (13.4), ST (18.1), IN (19.2), INSTAT (50.6). EM leaders (SEKUSD, MXNUSD) drive pro-risk, majors supportive, laggards in TRY/INR reflect local stress. Reinforces global risk-on, commodity strength; 1M as supportive trend extension context.
High-beta EM outperformance signals capital inflows amid equity rally. Supportive metrics but modest returns suggest moderate tone.
Leaders: SEKUSD - Swedish Krona US Dollar (SEKUSD, +1.2% 1D, INSTAT 104); MXNUSD - Mexican Peso US Dollar (MXNUSD, INSTAT 100).
Laggards: INRUSD - Indian Rupee US Dollar (INRUSD, INSTAT -84); TRYUSD - Turkish Lira US Dollar (TRYUSD, INSTAT -29).
Extended leaders: R-04 SEKUSD - Swedish Krona US Dollar, strongly bullish (INSTAT 104, strong 1D).
Deep laggards: R-04 INRUSD - Indian Rupee US Dollar, strongly bearish (INSTAT -84).
Potential contrarian: None prominent.
Classification: Moderately Bullish
R-05 – Commodities
Commodities mixed/bearish repair with 1D +0.77%, 1W +1.21%, but weak AT (10.3), ST (7.2), low IN (8.0), INSTAT (25.5). Energy/industrials (oil, zinc) lead modestly, ags/softs (cocoa, nat gas) deep laggards amid demand worries. Conflicts equity risk-on, extends soft 1M; highlights rotation cracks.
Dispersion high, with metals confirmatory but ags rejecting broader rally. Weak IN/INSTAT flags stress.
Leaders: US Soybean Oil Futures (ZL, +2.6% 1D/+6.7% 1W, INSTAT 100); Gold Futures (GC, +2.2% 1D/+9.4% 1W, INSTAT 94).
Laggards: US Cocoa Futures (CC, -5.1% 1D/-5.4% 1W, INSTAT -100); Natural Gas Futures (NG, -8.2% 1D, INSTAT -92).
Extended leaders: R-05 Gold Futures (GC), moderately bullish extended (INSTAT 94).
Deep laggards: R-05 US Cocoa Futures (CC), strongly bearish (INSTAT -100).
Potential contrarian: None prominent.
Classification: Bearish/Repair
R-06 – Gold & Silver
Gold/silver strongly bullish with robust 1D +6.3%, 1W +8.2%, AT (24), ST (18.9), IN (41.6), high INSTAT (84.5). Miners/phys gold (GDX, GDXJ, PHYS) surge as leaders, silver lags slightly but supportive. Safe-haven bid amid equity/vol dispersion, extending 1M uptrend context.
Confirms liquidity flows into PMs as equity hedge. Aligned positives yield strong classification.
Leaders: VanEck Junior Gold Miners ETF (GDXJ.K, +6.5% 1D/+10.3% 1W, INSTAT 100); VanEck Gold Miners ETF (GDX, +5.7% 1D/+9.2% 1W, INSTAT 100).
Laggards: ProShares Ultra Silver (AGQ, INSTAT 3 despite +16.7% 1D).
Extended leaders: R-06 VanEck Junior Gold Miners ETF (GDXJ.K), strongly bullish extended (INSTAT 100, very strong 1W).
Deep laggards: None prominent.
Potential contrarian: None.
Classification: Strongly Bullish
R-07 – Exchange Indexes
Exchange indexes moderately bullish, 1D +1.19%, 1W +1.54%, AT (16.9), ST (17.6), IN (44.5), INSTAT (79.1). Leaders in EM/Asia (BIST100, TA35, Hang Seng), laggards SEA (HNX, Jakarta). Broadens global equity risk-on, 1M supportive.
Risk-on breadth fits transports/Dow, cap flows to cyclicals.
Leaders: BIST 100 (.XU100, +2.3% 1D, INSTAT 100); TA 35 (.TA35, INSTAT 100).
Laggards: HNX (.HNXI, -1.7% 1W, INSTAT -45).
Extended leaders: R-07 BIST 100 (.XU100), strongly bullish short-term.
Deep laggards: R-07 HNX (.HNXI), strongly bearish.
Potential contrarian: None.
Classification: Moderately Bullish
R-08 – Country ETFs
Country ETFs strongly bullish, 1D +1.19%, 1W +2.04%, AT (20), ST (21.9), IN (44.3), elevated INSTAT (86.2). Latam/EM leaders (ECH, EWW), Indonesia/Philippines lag. Reinforces index strength, EM risk-on flows; extends 1M.
High INSTAT confirms pro-risk rotation.
Leaders: iShares MSCI Chile ETF (ECH, +2.1% 1D, INSTAT 100); iShares MSCI Mexico ETF (EWW, INSTAT 98).
Laggards: iShares MSCI Indonesia ETF (EIDO.K, INSTAT -70).
Extended leaders: R-08 iShares MSCI Chile ETF (ECH), strongly bullish extended.
Deep laggards: R-08 iShares MSCI Indonesia ETF (EIDO.K), strongly bearish.
Potential contrarian: None.
Classification: Strongly Bullish
R-09 – DJIA Dow Industrials
Dow Industrials neutral/mixed, 1D -0.28%, 1W +1.89%, AT (7.2), ST (9.6), low IN (26.4), INSTAT (43.1). Cyclicals (CAT, CVX, HON) lead, defensives (DIS, NKE) lag sharply. Choppy vs transports, within 1M up context.
Dispersion shows rotation to indls/energy.
Leaders: Caterpillar Inc (CAT, +2.2% 1D/+7.4% 1W, INSTAT 100); Chevron Corp (CVX, INSTAT 100).
Laggards: Walt Disney Company (DIS, INSTAT -96); Nike Inc (NKE, INSTAT -83).
Extended leaders: R-09 Caterpillar Inc (CAT), strongly bullish (INSTAT 100).
Deep laggards: R-09 Walt Disney Company (DIS), strongly bearish.
Potential contrarian: None.
Classification: Neutral/Mixed
R-10 – DJTA Dow Transports
Transports moderately bullish, 1D -0.66%, 1W +4.84%, positive AT (3.7), ST (15.2), IN (38.7), INSTAT (57.6). Rails/carriers (UNP, UPS, CSX) lead recovery, Uber deep stress. 1W strength overrides soft 1D, extending 1M rally context; confirms Dow risk-on.
Cyclical leadership amid global trade flows.
Leaders: Union Pacific Corporation (UNP, +0.7% 1D/+8.1% 1W, INSTAT 104); United Parcel Service Inc (UPS, INSTAT 100).
Laggards: Uber Technologies Inc (UBER.K, -1.2% 1D/-8.6% 1W, INSTAT -98).
Extended leaders: R-10 Union Pacific Corporation (UNP), strongly bullish extended (INSTAT 104).
Deep laggards: R-10 Uber Technologies Inc (UBER.K), strongly bearish (INSTAT -98).
Potential contrarian: Avis Budget Group Inc (CAR.O), contrarian watch (1W +2.8% despite INSTAT -62).
Classification: Moderately Bullish