INSTAT A European Asia–Asia-Pacific Markets Daily Pulse Report, February 12, 2026
Northeast Asia’s Momentum Extension vs. European Digestion – Institutional Rotation Away from China and Indian IT
Executive Summary:
Global equity capital flows today revealed a sharp divergence between two distinct regimes: momentum extension in Northeast Asia and tactical digestion in Europe, set against ongoing distribution in China and Indian IT services.
In Europe, the story is one of consolidation, not reversal. Seven of ten countries posted positive INSTAT scores, with 1W momentum comfortably outpacing softer 1D action. Spain, Israel, and Poland lead on institutional positioning, while France, the Netherlands, and Germany show defensive 1D weakness that appears tactical rather than structural. Telecom, staples, and select defense names lead; French mega-caps and German tech remain under sustained distribution. The region is in early-stage repair, not trend extension.
In Asia, the signal is unequivocally bullish for South Korea, Taiwan, and Japan. South Korea’s INSTAT of 73.3—fueled by financials and tech—represents one of the strongest country-level institutional thrusts in recent weeks, with 1M returns exceeding +11% and accelerating. Japan and Taiwan follow with broad-based participation, not narrow leadership. This is momentum extension, backed by consistent AT/ST scores.
China remains the clear outlier: INSTAT -42.7, negative across all timeframes, with no signs of stabilization. Hong Kong is neutral at best, with select financials showing resilience beneath the surface.
Sector-level extremes are visible: Indian IT services (Infosys, TCS) are in active liquidation, while Northeast Asian financials are parabolically extended. Contrarian candidates—Schneider Electric, Siemens Energy, Indian Oil, Ping An—offer constructive setups where positioning has improved ahead of price.
Key takeaway: Capital is rotating out of Chinese equities and Indian defensives into Northeast Asian cyclicals, with Europe caught between stabilization and soft 1D flows. The regime is defined not by risk-on/risk-off uniformity, but by geographic and sectoral bifurcation.
Analysis of European In-Country Capital Flows
European equity flows showed moderately constructive breadth today, with seven of ten countries registering positive mean INSTAT scores despite choppy 1D action. The dominant pattern is week-over-week momentum (1W) outpacing today’s softer session (1D), indicating this week’s rally is experiencing near-term digestion rather than reversal. Most notably, the short-term moves are emerging against a weak 1M backdrop in several markets—France, Netherlands, and Switzerland all carry negative 1M returns—suggesting this week’s buying represents early-stage repair rather than extension of established trends.
Israel, Poland, and Spain lead the European cohort on INSTAT (26.3, 23.6, and 31.2 respectively), with Spain exhibiting the strongest IN score at 33.8, signaling robust positioning ahead of price. Italy and the Nordic region also show constructive 1W momentum (+2.20% and +2.87%) with rising INSTAT. In contrast, Switzerland stands alone as the only bearish/repair market, with negative 1D and 1W returns (-0.93% and -0.97%) and mean INSTAT of -7.2, reflecting ongoing distribution despite flat 1M performance. Germany presents a mixed picture: positive 1W (+0.54%) but negative AT/ST scores (-9.4/-5.3) and flat INSTAT, indicating tactical weakness within an otherwise stable 1M trend.
Today’s 1D session skewed defensive across multiple markets, with France, Netherlands, Nordic, Spain, UK, and Germany all posting negative 1D returns ranging from -0.55% to -2.86%. Netherlands suffered the sharpest intraday pullback at -2.86%, yet maintains positive 1W momentum and INSTAT near +10, characteristic of healthy consolidation within a nascent uptrend. The 1D weakness appears tactical rather than structural, as IN scores remain elevated across most countries (12.5 to 33.8), suggesting institutional positioning remains supportive.
Leader/Laggard Summary
Clear leaders exhibiting pro-risk cyclical and defensive leadership:
Telecom and staples rotation: Deutsche Telekom (DTEGn) in Germany posted INSTAT 100 with exceptional 1D strength (+6.09%, +5.29% 1W), while Telenor (TEL.OL) in Nordic and Telecom Italia (TLIT.MI) show similar extended positioning with strong weekly gains.
Financials and consumer staples: Koninklijke Ahold Delhaize (AD.AS) in Netherlands and Heineken (HEIAa.BS) lead with INSTAT near 100 and double-digit 1W returns (+13.08% and +8.35%), reflecting short-term buying in defensive-cyclical hybrids.
Israel concentration: Israel Discount Bank (DSCT.TA), Azrieli Group (AZRG.TA), and Enlight Renewable Energy (ENLT.TA) all carry INSTAT 97-100 with 1W gains of +7.5% to +10.9%, representing the strongest country-level clustering.
Clear laggards showing ongoing distribution:
French mega-caps under pressure: LVMH (LVMH.PA), Sanofi (SASY.PA), Publicis (PUBP.PA), and Capgemini (CAPP.PA) all register INSTAT -100 with Capgemini suffering severe 1W decline (-15.51%), indicating sustained professional selling.
German tech and healthcare: SAP (SAPG) and Siemens Healthineers (SHLG.DE) both at INSTAT -100, with the latter down -5.26% on the week despite flat 1D action.
Industrials weakness: Hapag Lloyd (HLAG.DE) in shipping shows INSTAT -100 with negative 1D and 1W performance, reflecting sector-specific distribution.
Key Anomalies to Tag
Extended Leaders (short-term stretched, monitor for mean reversion):
Germany: Deutsche Telekom AG (DTEGn) – INSTAT 100 with exceptional 1D surge (+6.09%) following strong 1W (+5.29%); AT/ST both at 25 with IN at 50, indicating full short-term extension.
Netherlands: Koninklijke Ahold Delhaize (AD.AS) – INSTAT 100, 1W +13.08%, 1D +2.01%; momentum accelerating into overbought territory.
Netherlands: Heineken (HEIAa.BS) – INSTAT 98, 1W +8.35%, 1D +2.94%; consumer staples showing unusual velocity.
Nordic: Kongsberg Gruppen (KOG.OL) – INSTAT 82, 1W +13.21%; defense industrials running hot on 1W basis.
Israel: Enlight Renewable Energy (ENLT.TA) – INSTAT 100, 1D +5.19%, 1W +10.94%; renewable leadership at near-term extremes.
UK: Ashtead Group (AHT.L) – INSTAT 98, 1W +7.93%; equipment rental showing strong short-term thrust.
Deep Laggards (ongoing short-term distribution):
France: Capgemini (CAPP.PA) – INSTAT -100, 1D -4.37%, 1W -15.51%; severe professional selling in IT services.
France: Sanofi (SASY.PA) – INSTAT -100, 1D -4.19%, 1W -2.45%; healthcare mega-cap under distribution despite defensive thesis.
France: Publicis Groupe (PUBP.PA) – INSTAT -100, 1D -1.18%, 1W -8.60%; advertising services seeing sustained outflows.
France: Teleperformance (TEPRF.PA) – INSTAT -100, 1W -4.97%; business services weakness persisting.
France: Vivendi (VIV.PA) – INSTAT -100, 1W -3.07%; media conglomerate showing no 1W stabilization.
Germany: SAP (SAPG) – INSTAT -100; enterprise software flagship under pressure despite near-flat 1D/1W action.
Germany: Hapag Lloyd (HLAG.DE) – INSTAT -100, 1D -2.51%, 1W -3.08%; shipping logistics deteriorating.
Contrarian Candidates (negative 1D/1W but improving positioning):
France: Schneider Electric (SCHN.PA) – IN 50, INSTAT 52, 1D -0.36%, 1W +6.87%; short-term pullback within strong 1W uptrend and positive positioning.
France: Bouygues (BOUY.PA) – IN 50, INSTAT 52, 1D -0.28%, 1W +6.62%; construction/telecom showing resilient IN despite today’s pause.
Germany: Siemens Energy (ENR1n) – IN 50, INSTAT 74, 1D -1.13%, 1W +10.66%; energy transition name pulling back after explosive 1W gain, positioning still strong.
Germany: Infineon Technologies (IFXGn) – IN 50, INSTAT 50, 1D -1.75%, 1W +3.25%; semiconductor showing tactical weakness within improving setup.
Germany: BASF (BASFN) – IN 50, INSTAT 50, 1D -0.50%, 1W +4.60%; chemicals consolidating this week’s gains with solid IN.
Spain: Endesa (ELE) – IN 50, INSTAT 78, 1D -1.66%, 1W +1.94%; utility showing today’s weakness against strong positioning backdrop.
Spain: Ferrovial (FER) – IN 50, INSTAT 51, 1W +6.32%; infrastructure name digesting strong week.
Analysis of Asian In-Country Capital Flows
Asian and Asia-Pacific flows exhibited sharp bifurcation today, with Northeast Asia (South Korea, Taiwan, Japan) delivering exceptional 1D and 1W performance while Greater China (mainland China, Hong Kong) and Australia remained under pressure. The standout theme is the explosive acceleration in South Korean and Taiwanese equities—both posting mean 1W returns exceeding +5.8% with elevated INSTAT readings (73.3 and 45.6)—extending already strong 1M trends that now exceed +8% and +11% respectively. This represents momentum extension rather than early-stage recovery.
South Korea leads all Asian markets with mean INSTAT of 73.3, driven by 1D strength of +2.21% and 1W of +6.25% that builds on a robust +11.22% 1M gain. Japan follows closely with INSTAT 64.7 (1W +6.90%, 1M +11.63%), while Taiwan shows INSTAT 45.6 with extraordinary 1W momentum (+5.85%). The consistency across AT, ST, and IN scores in these markets (South Korea’s AT/ST at 17.8/16.9, Japan’s at 11.0/16.7) confirms broad-based institutional buying rather than narrow leadership. Singapore also stands out as strongly bullish (INSTAT 53.9, 1W +2.20%) with the highest mean IN score at 35.5, indicating aggressive positioning.
In stark contrast, China remains in bearish/repair mode with INSTAT at -42.7, negative 1D and 1W returns (-0.82% both periods), and deeply negative AT/ST scores (-15.7/-14.1), all against a weak -3.93% 1M backdrop—this is continuation of distribution, not stabilization. Hong Kong trades neutral/mixed with INSTAT near +5.3 but negative 1D action (-1.36%) and flat 1W (-0.22%). India and the Tiger Cubs show moderately bullish patterns (INSTAT 16.6 and 30.2), though India’s 1D weakness (-0.77%) represents consolidation within a positive 1W/1M trend. Australia remains choppy with INSTAT near +7 but negative 1D/1W action.
Leader/Laggard Summary
Clear leaders demonstrating pro-risk cyclical leadership concentrated in Northeast Asian financials and technology:
South Korean financials cluster: Hana Financial (086790.KS), Shinhan Financial (055550.KS), KB Financial (105560.KS), and Woori Financial (316140.KS) all show INSTAT 99-100 with explosive 1W gains ranging from +13.94% to +22.73%; this represents the most concentrated short-term leadership in the entire Asian universe.
South Korean technology and industrials: Samsung Electronics (005930.KS), SK Hynix (000660.KS), and Samsung C&T (028260.KS) all at INSTAT 100 with 1W returns of +5.46% to +12.12%, confirming broad Korean equity rally beyond just financials.
Japanese trading houses and financials: Mitsui & Co (8031.T) and Orix (8591.T) lead with INSTAT 98-100 and 1W gains exceeding +13%, participating in the broader Northeast Asian thrust.
Indian financials and cyclicals: State Bank of India (SBI.NS) stands out with INSTAT 99, 1W +11.08%, and 1M +15.94%; Bajaj Finance (BJFN.NS) and Vedanta (VDAN.NS) also show INSTAT 92-100 with strong weekly momentum.
Clear laggards showing short-term distribution in Indian IT services and China/Hong Kong names:
Indian IT services collapse: Infosys (INFY.NS) and Tata Consultancy Services (TCS.NS) both at INSTAT -100 with severe 1D declines (-5.84% and -5.49%) and 1W losses exceeding -8%, against weak 1M performance (-13% to -14%); sector experiencing acute professional selling.
Hong Kong tech and consumer: Meituan (3690.HK) at INSTAT -98 (1W -9.54%, 1M -19.11%), Trip.com (9961.HK) at INSTAT -97 (1W -5.26%, 1M -29.59%), and Sunny Optical (2382.HK) at INSTAT -100 show sustained distribution across growth names.
Indian defensives: ITC (ITC.NS) at INSTAT -100 despite positive 1W (+2.34%), and Cipla (CIPL.NS) at INSTAT -96, reflecting defensive unwind within broader India rotation.
Key Anomalies to Tag
Extended Leaders (strongly bullish but short-term stretched):
South Korea: Woori Financial Group (316140.KS) – INSTAT 99, 1D +3.43%, 1W +22.73%, 1M +40.57%; extreme short-term velocity in financials, monitor for exhaustion.
South Korea: KB Financial Group (105560.KS) – INSTAT 100, 1W +20.79%, 1M +31.13%; parabolic move entering overbought territory.
South Korea: Shinhan Financial Group (055550.KS) – INSTAT 100, 1D +5.05%, 1W +16.61%, 1M +35.20%; accelerating momentum at extremes.
South Korea: Industrial Bank of Korea (024110.KS) – INSTAT 96, 1D +4.60%, 1W +13.70%, 1M +27.56%; financial sector uniformly extended.
South Korea: Samsung Electronics (005930.KS) – INSTAT 100, 1D +6.44%, 1W +12.12%, 1M +29.80%; flagship mega-cap participating in parabolic move.
South Korea: Samsung C&T (028260.KS) – INSTAT 100, 1D +5.53%, 1W +9.15%, 1M +22.12%; industrial conglomerate arm showing similar thrust.
Japan: Orix (8591.T) – INSTAT 100, 1D +3.48%, 1W +15.34%, 1M +17.70%; financial services showing exceptional 1W acceleration.
Japan: Mitsui & Co (8031.T) – INSTAT 98, 1D +5.68%, 1W +13.35%, 1M +16.14%; trading house momentum at near-term highs.
India: State Bank of India (SBI.NS) – INSTAT 99, 1W +11.08%, 1M +15.94%; banking leader running hot on multiple timeframes.
Deep Laggards (ongoing distribution, no stabilization):
India: Infosys (INFY.NS) – INSTAT -100, 1D -5.84%, 1W -8.83%, 1M -13.32%; IT services showing accelerating selling today.
India: Tata Consultancy Services (TCS.NS) – INSTAT -100, 1D -5.49%, 1W -8.07%, 1M -14.62%; sector leader unable to find support.
India: HCL Technologies (HCLT.NS) – INSTAT -82, 1D -4.87%, 1W -8.32%, 1M -11.35%; broad-based IT services weakness.
India: ITC (ITC.NS) – INSTAT -100, 1D -0.25%, 1W +2.34%, 1M -5.15%; defensive unwind despite positive 1W action, positioning collapsed.
India: LIC Housing Finance (LICH.NS) – INSTAT -100, 1D -1.61%; housing finance under sustained pressure.
Hong Kong: Meituan (3690.HK) – INSTAT -98, 1D -4.50%, 1W -9.54%, 1M -19.11%; e-commerce platform in severe distribution phase.
Hong Kong: Trip.com (9961.HK) – INSTAT -97, 1D -3.90%, 1W -5.26%, 1M -29.59%; travel platform showing no signs of stabilization.
Hong Kong: Sunny Optical (2382.HK) – INSTAT -100, 1D -3.20%, 1W -3.85%, 1M -11.61%; optical components under persistent selling.
Hong Kong: Lenovo (0992.HK) – INSTAT -81, 1D -4.56%, 1W -3.33%; PC maker experiencing renewed weakness today.
Singapore: Mapletree Industrial Trust (MAPI.SI) – INSTAT -100, 1D -0.98%, 1W -0.49%; REIT sector laggard.
Contrarian Candidates (negative 1D/1W but positive IN, breadth improving ahead of price):
India: Indian Oil Corporation (IOC.NS) – IN 50, INSTAT 70, 1D -1.76%, 1W +1.33%, 1M +13.16%; energy major consolidating within strong trend, positioning intact.
India: NTPC (NTPC.NS) – IN 50, INSTAT 58, 1W +0.34%, 1M +8.98%; utility showing flat 1W with supportive positioning.
India: Grasim Industries (GRAS.NS) – IN 50, INSTAT 78, 1W +2.15%, 1M +5.45%; materials name with strong setup despite today’s pause.
Singapore: Singapore Exchange (SGXL.SI) – IN 50, INSTAT 59, 1D -2.67%, 1W +5.22%, 1M +4.74%; exchange operator pulling back after strong 1W gain.
Hong Kong: Ping An Insurance (2318.HK) – IN 50, INSTAT 61, 1D -0.83%, 1W +1.05%; insurance giant showing resilient positioning against weak Hong Kong backdrop.
Hong Kong: China Shenhua Energy (1088.HK) – IN 50, INSTAT 77, 1W +4.12%, 1M +6.17%; coal/energy name consolidating with strong IN.
Hong Kong: China Construction Bank (0939.HK) – IN 50, INSTAT 54, 1W +2.02%, 1M +3.46%; mainland bank showing constructive setup despite sector weakness.
Japan: Tokyo Electron (8035.T) – IN 50, INSTAT 79, 1D -0.48%, 1W +3.28%; semiconductor equipment showing tactical weakness within strong positioning.
Japan: Fast Retailing (9983.T) – IN 50, INSTAT 70, 1W +7.86%, 1M +7.02%; retail leader digesting strong 1W gains.
Japan: Hitachi (6501.T) – IN 50, INSTAT 64, 1D -1.33%, 1W +7.96%; industrial conglomerate showing healthy pullback within uptrend.