INSTAT A European Asia–Asia-Pacific Markets Daily Pulse Report, February 11, 2026
Europe Bifurcates Between Cyclical/Defensive Leaders and Luxury/Tech Laggards; Asia’s Risk-On Momentum Remains Centered in Japan and Korea While China/HK Repair Phase Lingers
Executive Summary:
Global Capital Rotation Intensifies as Regional
Today’s cross-regional capital flow analysis reveals a market environment defined not by unified direction, but by stark internal dispersion. Europe exhibits a clear rotational schism: capital is rotating out of French and Swiss luxury/tech heavyweights into Spanish, UK, and Dutch cyclicals and defensives, creating a bifurcated landscape where country and sector selection override broader indices. France and Switzerland register as outright laggards (INSTAT ~13), while Spain and the UK demonstrate “Moderately Bullish” conviction.
In Asia, the narrative is one of momentum extension versus stabilization. Japan and South Korea are in full “Risk-On” mode, driven by financials, trading houses, and autos with high-conviction INSTAT scores. Conversely, China and Hong Kong remain in a “Repair Phase”—prices stabilizing but internals weak, lacking the institutional sponsorship seen elsewhere. Anomalies abound: Dutch defensives spiking on isolated flows, French telecom names defying national weakness, and Indian IT majors decoupling to the downside despite a positive regional backdrop.
The tape today favors capital preservation and rotational awareness over macro directional bets.
Analysis of European In-Country Capital Flows
Overview
European markets display significant dispersion today, characterized by a rotational shift rather than a broad directional move. The data reveals a clear bifurcation: Spain, the Netherlands, the UK, and the Nordic region are acting as short-term leaders, exhibiting “Moderately Bullish” behavior with positive 1D and 1W returns supported by solid INSTAT readings (ranging from 34 to 52). In contrast, France and Switzerland are clear laggards, classified as “Bearish/Soft” with negative mean returns and depressed sentiment scores (INSTAT ~13), suggesting ongoing distribution in key heavyweight constituents.
The risk tone is decidedly mixed, favoring “old economy” cyclicals and defensives over growth and luxury. Capital appears to be rotating into Energy, Utilities, and select Financials, driving the outperformers in Spain and the UK. Conversely, high-beta sectors such as Technology and Luxury Goods are sources of funds today, weighing heavily on the French and Swiss indices. This selling pressure in France (1D -0.92%) and Switzerland (1D -0.67%) notably interrupts what had been a constructive 1M backdrop, signaling a potential short-term inflection or sharp profit-taking phase rather than a continuation of the monthly trend.
Germany and Italy occupy a “Neutral/Mixed” middle ground. While their 1M trends remain supportive, today’s price action is choppy (Germany 1D -0.14%, Italy 1D -0.45%) with divergent internal momentum. The dispersion in INSTAT scores across the continent—from a high of ~52 in Spain to lows of ~13 in France/Switzerland—highlights the lack of unified regional conviction today, making country and sector selection critical.
Leader and Laggard Summary
Pro-risk cyclical leadership: Strong 1D and 1W buying is evident in UK and Spanish resource and banking names (e.g., BHP Group, Repsol), extending recent strength.
Defensive rotation: Dutch and UK defensive sectors are attracting flows, with Ahold Delhaize and AstraZeneca acting as pillars of stability amidst broader volatility.
Growth/Luxury unwind: Significant short-term selling is hitting French and Swiss leaders, with Publicis, Capgemini, and Schindler facing sharp 1D distribution, acting as a drag on their respective national indices.
Tech weakness: European technology names are underperforming, with SAP (Germany) and Capgemini (France) showing clear relative weakness on a 1D basis.
Key Anomalies
Extended Leaders
Spain: Repsol (REP) – Strongly Bullish, short-term extended – INSTAT 100 with solid 1D (+3.0%) and 1W gains; energy momentum is robust.
UK: SSE PLC (SSE.L) – Strongly Bullish – INSTAT 100 with defensive buying driving a +3.4% 1D move; trends are fully aligned.
Netherlands: Koninklijke Ahold Delhaize NV (AD.AS) – Strongly Bullish – INSTAT 100 with an anomalous +11.6% 1D surge; monitor for exhaustion after such a sharp move.
France: Orange SA (ORAN.PA) – Bullish Divergence – INSTAT 100 and +4.3% 1D, defying the broader weak French tape.
Deep Laggards
France: Publicis Groupe SA (PUBP.PA) – Strongly Bearish – INSTAT -100 with a sharp -8.7% 1D drop; distribution is intensifying against a weak 1W backdrop.
France: Capgemini SE (CAPP.PA) – Bearish/Repair – INSTAT -100 and -8.2% 1D; tech weakness is accelerating short-term stress.
Germany: SAP SE (SAPG) – Short-term Stress – INSTAT -100 with a -5.2% 1D fall, breaking recent 1W stability.
Swiss: Schindler Holding AG (SCHN.S) – Deep Laggard – INSTAT -64 coupled with a severe -10.3% 1D drawdown.
Potential Contrarian Ideas
Italy: UniCredit SpA (CRDI.MI) – Contrarian watch – Negative 1D (-2.6%) but IN remains positive (48); potential pullback within a constructive setup.
UK: Smith & Nephew PLC (SN.L) – Stabilization candidate – Flat/negative price action but high INSTAT (88) and IN (50) suggest internal improvement.
Germany: Infineon Technologies AG (IFXGn) – Dip buying watch – Despite broader tech weakness, retains INSTAT 100; resilience in a weak sector.
Analysis of Asian In-Country Capital Flows
Overview
Asian markets are exhibiting a robust “Risk-On” tone, led by powerful momentum in Japan and South Korea, both classified as “Strongly Bullish.” These markets are seeing broad-based buying (Japan 1W +6.7%, Korea 1W +1.4%) that is extending strong 1M trends rather than reversing them. The leadership is high-quality and cyclical, driven by Banks, Trading Houses, and Autos, with INSTAT averages in these leaders (Japan ~72, Korea ~59) signaling high confidence and strong institutional participation.
Singapore, Taiwan, and the Tiger Cubs (Vietnam/Philippines/Indonesia) are also participating in the rally, rated “Moderately Bullish” with steady 1D and 1W gains. Australia joins this group, supported by its banking sector, though its Healthcare constituents remain a drag. The overall breadth in these regions is healthy, with INSTAT scores generally rising, confirming the price moves.
China and Hong Kong remain the notable underperformers, classified as “Moderately Bullish” only on price surface (flat-to-slightly up 1D/1W) but masking weaker internals. China’s mean INSTAT is negative (-1.4), and Hong Kong’s is subdued (~30), indicating a lack of broad conviction. While prices are stabilizing after a difficult 1M, the internal data suggests this is more of a pause or “Repair Phase” than a resumption of an aggressive uptrend, particularly with Consumer and Tech names still struggling.
Leader and Laggard Summary
Cyclical Blowout: Japan is seeing an explosive move in Trading Houses and Financials (Mitsubishi Corp, Orix), accompanied by extremely high INSTAT readings, characterizing a “Strongly Bullish” extension.
Korean Financial/Auto surge: Capital is aggressively flowing into Korean value plays like KB Financial and Hyundai Motor, driving the index higher.
China/HK Tech drag: Chinese consumer and tech giants (Wuliangye, Meituan, JD.com) remain heavy, acting as laggards despite the broader regional stability.
Indian IT weakness: While India is generally positive, IT majors like TCS and Infosys are decoupling to the downside, showing clear “Defensive unwind” or sector-specific rotation behavior.
Key Anomalies
Extended Leaders
Japan: Mitsubishi Corp. (8058.T) – Strongly Bullish, Extended – INSTAT 100 with massive momentum (+4.3% 1D, +18.4% 1W); trend is extremely strong but becoming stretched.
South Korea: KB Financial Group (105560.KS) – Strongly Bullish – INSTAT 100 with a +5.8% 1D move; financials are leading the breakout.
Tiger Cubs (Vietnam): Vingroup JSC (VIC.HM) – Velocity Anomalies – INSTAT 100 with a +6.6% 1D and +24% 1W surge; aggressive repricing is underway.
Australia: Commonwealth Bank (CBA.AX) – Bullish Extension – INSTAT 92 with a sharp +6.8% 1D gain, driving the local financial sector.
Deep Laggards
Australia: CSL Ltd (CSL.AX) – Bearish Breakdown – INSTAT -91 with a -4.6% 1D drop, continuing a steep 1W decline (-10.1%).
India: Tata Consultancy Services (TCS.NS) – Deep Laggard – INSTAT -100 with persistent weakness (1D -2.5%, 1W -3.0%); tech is under clear distribution.
Hong Kong: Meituan (3690.HK) – Short-term Repair – INSTAT -99; flat 1D but weak 1W confirms ongoing laggard status.
China: Wuliangye Yibin (000858.SZ) – Bearish – INSTAT -100; continues to drift lower (1W -2.3%) despite flat broad market.
Potential Contrarian Ideas
Japan: Hitachi Ltd (6501.T) – Buy the Dip – Negative 1D (-2.9%) against a very strong 1W (+9.5%) and positive IN (50); likely profit-taking within an uptrend.
South Korea: Hyundai Mobis (012330.KS) – Bullish Divergence – Positive 1D (+2.1%) and INSTAT 100 despite flat 1W; internals are strengthening ahead of price.
Hong Kong: HSBC Holdings (0005.HK) – Internal Strength – Slightly negative 1D but INSTAT 96 remains very supportive; diverging from the weaker HK tech theme.
“Repair Phase” Explained
In the context of the INSTAT capital flow reports, a “Repair Phase” is a transitional market condition that occurs immediately following a significant drawdown or structural breakdown.
It represents the period where the “bleeding stops”—selling pressure exhausts itself, and an asset begins to stabilize—but has not yet established a confirmed new uptrend.
Key Characteristics
Price Action Stabilization: The asset stops making lower lows and begins to trade sideways or drift slightly higher. It is effectively trying to build a “floor” or base after a sharp decline.
Technical Reclamation: The price attempts to reclaim short-term moving averages (such as the 10-day or 20-day EMA) that were lost during the sell-off.
Internal Divergence (INSTAT context): In my reporting framework, a Repair Phase is often flagged when price is still flat or slightly negative, but internal scores (IN/INSTAT) begin to rise off depressed levels (e.g., moving from -100 toward -50). This indicates that breadth is improving and aggressive distribution has ceased, even if the headline price hasn’t surged yet.
Psychology: It marks the shift from “Panic/Liquidation” to “Tentative Holding/Accumulation.” Investors stop selling into strength and start holding positions, reducing volatility.
Distinction from “Recovery” or “Bullish Trend”
Repair: The chart is “fixing” the damage. Resistance levels overhead (supply) are still formidable. The goal is stability.
Recovery/Trend: The chart has fixed the damage and is now making higher highs with momentum. The goal is appreciation.
Example in the INSTAT Reporting
If a stock drops 15% in a month (Bearish), then spends the next week trading flat with low volatility, it has entered a Repair Phase. It is no longer “crashing,” but it is not yet “rallying.”
(Note: In options trading, “Stock Repair” refers specifically to a ratio spread strategy used to lower the breakeven price of a losing position, but in my narrative reports, it strictly refers to the technical stabilization described above.)