Hollywood’s $70 Billion Cage Match: Netflix vs. Trump’s Friends in the Battle for Warner Bros.

Why the fight over HBO, CNN, and Batman matters to your portfolio—and what Trump has to do with it

A massive corporate battle has been playing out in Hollywood, and it reads like a script from one of Warner Bros.’ own thriller movies. Netflix wants to buy the studio that makes your favorite shows. A rival group backed by one of tech’s richest families wants to grab it instead. And President Trump has announced he’ll personally get involved in deciding who wins — despite what the market wants.

Here’s what’s happening, why it matters, and what investors need to know.

The Players and the Prize

Warner Bros. Discovery (WBD) owns some of entertainment’s most valuable assets: Warner Bros. movie studios (think Batman, Harry Potter), HBO and Max streaming, plus CNN and various cable channels. The company is now the target of two competing offers worth over $70 billion.

Deal #1: The Netflix Purchase (The Friendly Offer)

Netflix has agreed with WBD’s board to buy the entertainment assets—the studios, HBO, and streaming operations—for around $70 billion. Under this plan, CNN and the cable news networks would be spun off into a separate company called Discovery Global, which would remain independent.

Think of it like selling your house but keeping the garage as a separate property. Netflix gets the content factories; CNN goes its own way.

Deal #2: The Paramount Bid (The Hostile Takeover)

Paramount, now controlled by David Ellison (son of Oracle billionaire Larry Ellison), has swooped in with a higher offer—somewhere in the high-$70 billions—to buy all of Warner Bros. Discovery, including CNN and everything else.

This is what’s called a “hostile bid” because Paramount made the offer directly to shareholders rather than negotiating with WBD’s board first. It’s like someone offering to buy your house by knocking on your door after you’ve already signed papers with another buyer.

Why WBD’s Board Says “No Thanks” to More Money

Here’s where it gets interesting. Paramount’s offer sounds better because it’s bigger, right? Not so fast, says WBD’s leadership. They’ve rejected the Paramount bid as “inadequate” and “illusory”—a polite way of calling it fake money.

The problem is how the Paramount deal would be financed. Much of the money comes from Larry Ellison’s “revocable trust,” which means he could potentially pull the funding. WBD’s board argues that Netflix’s offer, while smaller on paper, is more certain because Netflix has the cash and borrowing power to actually complete the deal.

In investment terms, a smaller sure thing often beats a larger maybe.

Trump’s Role: Political Wild Card

President Trump has publicly stated he will “be involved” in reviewing these deals, and that changes everything. As president, Trump controls the agencies that approve or block major mergers—the Federal Trade Commission (FTC) and Federal Communications Commission (FCC).

Trump has two reasons to insert himself here:

First, he has a long-running feud with CNN, which he’s attacked repeatedly over its news coverage. He’s even said he’d prefer outcomes that lead to “CNN being sold.” The Netflix deal conveniently spins CNN off into a separate company, potentially making it easier to pressure or reshape later.

Second, Trump has connections to the Paramount side. He’s praised Larry Ellison publicly, and Jared Kushner’s investment fund (Affinity Partners) is backing Paramount’s bid. This creates an obvious conflict: the president has friends and family on one side of a deal he’ll be judging as a regulator.

This isn’t theoretical concern—Trump previously used regulatory power to fight the AT&T-Time Warner merger years ago, partly because of CNN.

The Tale of Two Deals

What This Means for Investors

If you own shares in any of these companies, here’s what matters:

For WBD shareholders: Your board is betting that Netflix’s slightly smaller but clearly defined offer beats Paramount’s bigger but questionable one. They’re choosing reliability over a potentially empty promise. Given Trump’s political involvement and Paramount’s financing questions, that’s probably the right call.

For Netflix shareholders: Buying Warner Bros. content and HBO would make Netflix an even bigger streaming powerhouse, but it also means years of regulatory battles and possible concessions to get Trump’s approval. The long-term payoff could be huge but expect a bumpy ride.

For Paramount shareholders: Piling another massive acquisition onto Paramount (which just recently absorbed Skydance) means more debt, more integration challenges, and unusual dependence on Trump’s goodwill in Washington. That’s a lot of risk for uncertain rewards.

The Bottom Line

This is a classic case where the cleaner, smaller deal probably wins over the messier, bigger one. Netflix’s offer has fewer moving parts, clearer financing, and—critically—removes CNN from the equation, which reduces Trump’s leverage to block or reshape the deal.

The Paramount bid offers more money on paper but comes wrapped in political complications, financing uncertainties, and integration nightmares. When a deal depends on a billionaire’s revocable trust and the personal favor of a president with obvious conflicts of interest, investors should be skeptical.

In corporate takeovers as in life, sometimes the sure thing beats the long shot—especially when politics gets involved.

For average investors watching from the sidelines, the broader lesson is clear: when presidential politics intersects with corporate mergers, expect drama, delays, and outcomes driven as much by Washington relationships as by business fundamentals. That’s not how markets are supposed to work, but it’s increasingly how they do.

What happens next: Watch for Trump’s agencies to signal which deal they prefer, for shareholders to potentially vote on both offers, and for months of legal and regulatory wrangling. The winner gets to control some of entertainment’s most valuable brands. The loser gets to explain to shareholders why bigger wasn’t better after all.