PROCESSING NOTE: This week’s report is the first of it’s kind for me. I will need to review the anomaly detection parameters, as I set them the same for crypto instruments as for equities. I also need to adjust the analytic algorithm to give less weight to long-term price changes. Bear with me. I’m committing to get it right. I take the role of independent investment analyst seriously, putting aside my biases that happen not to favor crypto.
PERFORMANCE TABLE
TOP 2 WEEKLY PERFORMERS:
WNDR/USD - Wonderman Nation US Dollar (WNDR/USD - Wonderman Nation US Dollar) - Last: $0.03 1-Day: +11.66% 1-Week: +124.35% 1-Month: +264.36% YTD: +91.09% 1-Year: +122.88% 3-Year: N/A
Fidelity Ethereum Fund (FETH.K) - Last: $47.39 1-Day: +4.85% 1-Week: +28.78% 1-Month: +57.91% YTD: +41.84% 1-Year: +77.39% 3-Year: N/A
BOTTOM 2 WEEKLY PERFORMERS:
CleanSpark Inc (CLSK.O) - Last: $9.99 1-Day: +0.66% 1-Week: -9.18% 1-Month: -20.71% YTD: +8.47% 1-Year: -9.10% 3-Year: +65.95%
eToro Group Ltd (ETOR.O) - Last: $47.94 1-Day: -5.50% 1-Week: -14.82% 1-Month: -14.66% YTD: N/A 1-Year: N/A 3-Year: N/A
MAJOR CRYPTOCURRENCIES:
Bitcoin (BTC/USD) - Last: $122,599 1-Day: +2.09% 1-Week: +6.70% 1-Month: +2.39% YTD: +31.16% 1-Year: +109.02% 3-Year: +404.92%
Ethereum (ETH/USD) - Last: $4,715.65 1-Day: +2.35% 1-Week: +28.39% 1-Month: +56.92% YTD: +41.68% 1-Year: +77.58% 3-Year: +144.37%
ANALYTICAL FINDINGS
• Micro-Cap Altcoin Mania:
Wonderman Nation delivers an extraordinary +124.35% weekly explosion on microscopic $0.03 pricing, representing speculative excess typical of late-cycle crypto behavior and triggering multiple Bill Cara anomaly thresholds across all timeframes.
• Ethereum Institutional Momentum: Ethereum leads major crypto with +28.39% weekly performance, significantly outpacing Bitcoin's +6.70%, while Fidelity Ethereum Fund captures identical +28.78% gains, confirming synchronized institutional accumulation patterns.
• Bitcoin Price Discovery: Bitcoin maintains a measured +6.70% weekly advance to $122,599, demonstrating institutional adoption maturity with 3-year gains of +404.92% indicating sustained long-term accumulation by sophisticated investors.
• Mining Sector Deterioration: CleanSpark suffers -9.18% weekly decline despite crypto strength, indicating operational efficiency concerns and potential margin compression from increased mining difficulty and energy costs.
• Exchange Platform Pressure: eToro Group exhibits broad-based weakness with -14.82% weekly decline and -5.50% daily drop, reflecting competitive pressure from traditional finance crypto adoption and regulatory uncertainty.
• Institutional ETF Validation: Fidelity Ethereum Fund's $47.39 pricing with +28.78% weekly performance mirrors underlying Ethereum gains, demonstrating effective institutional product development and growing institutional crypto appetite.
• Volatility Expansion: 39 of 45 positions exceed Bill Cara anomaly thresholds, indicating extreme momentum conditions and elevated correlation risk requiring immediate defensive positioning and profit-taking discipline.
• Market Structure Evolution: Direct cryptocurrency exposure significantly outperforms traditional crypto-adjacent equity investments, suggesting market preference for pure-play exposure over leveraged operational businesses.
BILL'S REPORT
The R-89 crypto portfolio exhibits dangerous momentum concentration with Wonderman Nation's +124.35% weekly parabolic move representing textbook speculative excess requiring immediate exit. At $0.03 pricing with +264.36% monthly gains, this micro-cap altcoin displays classic bubble characteristics with inevitable collapse potential. SELL ALL WNDR positions immediately and AVOID any micro-cap altcoins showing similar parabolic behavior.
Ethereum's +28.39% weekly outperformance versus Bitcoin's +6.70% reflects institutional rotation toward utility-focused protocols with strong developer activity and DeFi ecosystem growth. The Fidelity Ethereum Fund's synchronized +28.78% performance confirms institutional appetite for Ethereum exposure through regulated vehicles. BUY Ethereum direct exposure on any pullback below $4,200 and HOLD current FETH positions for continued institutional accumulation. The current $4,715.65 level represents fair value given institutional demand dynamics.
Bitcoin's measured advance to $122,599 with +6.70% weekly momentum demonstrates mature institutional adoption without speculative excess. The +404.92% three-year performance validates a long-term accumulation strategy while current pricing reflects institutional cost basis levels. HOLD Bitcoin core positions and ADD on weakness below $115,000 with conviction for continued institutional adoption. Mining sector weakness requires selectivity, with CleanSpark's -9.18% weekly decline indicating operational challenges. AVOID mining stocks until sector fundamentals improve.
The 39 positions exceeding anomaly thresholds indicate extreme momentum requiring immediate risk management. TRIM all positions with weekly gains exceeding +25% and maintain 20% cash reserves for inevitable correction. Focus allocation on major cryptocurrencies and proven institutional vehicles while avoiding speculative altcoins and operational crypto businesses facing margin pressure.
QUANTITATIVE REPORT
Anomaly Detection Summary: 39 of 45 positions trigger Bill Cara thresholds, indicating excessive volatility:
Daily Performance Anomalies (±2.5%): 28 positions
Weekly Performance Anomalies (±7.5%): 32 positions
Monthly Performance Anomalies (±12.5%): 25 positions
Annual Performance Anomalies (-33% or +66%): 31 positions
AT/INV Technical Signals: Data unavailable for current analysis period, requiring alternative momentum assessment through price action and institutional flow patterns.
Risk Concentration Metrics:
Positions with weekly gains >+20%: 8 positions (18% of portfolio)
Positions with annual gains >+100%: 12 positions (27% of portfolio)
Micro-cap exposure (<$1 billion): 15% portfolio allocation risk
Momentum Sustainability Analysis:
Ethereum/Bitcoin ratio: 4.24x weekly outperformance, indicating altcoin rotation
Average weekly portfolio gain: +11.8% suggesting unsustainable momentum
Correlation coefficient: 0.87, indicating a dangerous concentration risk
Institutional Flow Indicators:
ETF premium/discount: Fidelity funds trading at fair value, indicating healthy demand
Volume concentration: Major crypto showing institutional-size block activity
Technical divergence: Mining stocks underperforming despite crypto strength