CARA PORTFOLIO UPDATE — P3
Growth in the Age of Austerity · Thursday, April 30, 2026 · Issue 26.01
All decisions are made by Bill Cara and associate. They are informed by, but not delegated to, the data produced by the INSTAT, Playbook, and Navigator reporting systems. The data does not make decisions — it provides the evidentiary basis for judgment. That distinction matters.
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PERSPECTIVE
The P3 portfolio re-started today, Thursday, April 30, 2026, with $103,465.94 of capital — the residual carried forward from the original Russell 2000 Small Cap Growth portfolio that operated through the early-2026 cycle. The portfolio closed today at $103,242, a one-day mark-to-market loss of $224 (−0.21%). It now stands 86.7% invested in equities and 13.3% in cash.
This is not a continuation of the prior mandate. The Russell 2000 Small Cap Growth designation has been retired. P3 is now a Growth-in-the-Age-of-Austerity portfolio: ten names, large-cap and durable, selected for the ability to compound through a disinflation- and policy-uncertainty-driven environment rather than for index-relative beta.
The performance ledger that produced this restart is worth recording precisely. From January 1 through February 4, 2026, the original P3 Growth portfolio gained +3.466% — an outstanding one-month return. From February 4 through today, April 30, those same thirteen names lost an average of −5.08%. Of the original thirteen, ten still meet the Ziggma minimum-quality threshold; collectively those ten declined only −0.53% from February 4 to today. The penalty on the full thirteen-name basket came almost entirely from the three names that have since dropped below the screen.
Of the original thirteen, only two — Comfort Systems USA (FIX) at Ziggma 93 and Halozyme Therapeutics (HALO) at 92 — survived into the current 50-name Growth watchlist. HALO cleared by the narrowest of margins after the additional age-of-austerity durability filter was applied; it was a judgmental call. The watchlist now contains names — Merck, Mastercard, First Solar, and others — that simply would not have been growth candidates in 4Q 2025. The macro lens has changed; the screen has followed it.
The selection process is unchanged from P2: the Four-Gate Funnel — Ziggma quality, INSTAT timing, RSI/MACD confirmation, manual Point & Figure review — applied without exception. Nine of the ten new positions cleared with deeply negative INSTAT readings (between −18 and −90), which is precisely what the system is designed to identify: high-quality businesses caught at floor exhaustion. First Solar (INSTAT +45) is the exception, added late as the tenth holding to round out the portfolio at the intended count.
FSLR was a deliberate, judgmental addition. The other nine names emerged from the funnel with the technical setup the framework is built to find. FSLR did not — its INSTAT is positive — but it adds an exposure (U.S.-domestic clean-energy industrial capacity with multi-year contracted economics) that fits the age-of-austerity thesis and is otherwise absent from the line-up. The trade-off is documented; it is not buried.
The 13.3% cash allocation is materially smaller than the P2 cash buffer (46.4%). That is by design. P3 is a Growth mandate; P2 is the Maverick educational vehicle with a more conservative re-entry profile. The two portfolios are calibrated to different risk budgets and different stop-loss disciplines, and the cash weights reflect that — not a directional disagreement between the two.
From here, P3 reports forward in lockstep against the new April 30 baseline. The full position-level analysis follows behind the paywall.
This Report Contains
• Part I — Perspective (above)
• Part II — Current Holdings & Stop Levels
• Part III — Selection Framework: The Four-Gate Funnel
• Part IV — Position SWOTs (Ten Holdings)
• Part V — Risk Management & Reporting Cadence
• Part VI — Outlook & Mandate
Deep-dive each instrument on Ziggma (the same fundamental engine I use for Gate 1): ziggma.com (referral link)
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FULL REPORT
Note: The URL landing page is being changed from billcaradotcom.substack.com to billcara.substack.com.
Starting on Monday, May 4, paid subscribers will receive the full reports at caraportfolio.substack.com. Free subscribers will receive the Portfolio Report Perspective only plus any articles and notes I publish here.
My private site, Billcara.com, is currently under re-development. Afterwards, the free Navigator reports will only be accessible there.
Final note for today: The report banner has not been fully set up. The data for S&P 500 for today is incorrect. The heading shows a loss of -0.36% when in fact the S&P 500 today gained +1.0%. Based on past experience, getting things settled down usually takes several days.