Cara 100 Companies Watchlist Weekly Performance Review -For the Week Ending August 19, 2025
When Weekly Winners Hide Weak Technicals: A Tale of Two Markets
Verification
✓ This report is based exclusively on my uploaded dataset, with no substitutions or additions. Contextual insights are drawn only from Bloomberg, Reuters, Investing.com, and similar reputable sources, as well as official government/central bank sources.
Investment Analysis
The portfolio demonstrates significant cross-currents with pharmaceutical names leading weekly performance while experiencing monthly weakness, and technology showing sector-specific rotation patterns.
Weekly Performance: Novo Nordisk leads with 10.04% gains despite a negative Total score of -35, reflecting short-term technical strength against longer-term concerns. Eli Lilly follows with 9.97% but carries a severely negative Total score of -129. Weekly leaders generally show negative Total scores, suggesting counter-trend rallies rather than fundamental strength.
Monthly Trends: Industrial automation (Fanuc +19.06%, Total: 118) and networking technology (Arista +18.79%, Total: 125) demonstrate the strongest monthly performance with positive Total scores. Toyota Motor (Total: 199) and AstraZeneca (Total: 200) show exceptional Total scores above 150, indicating strong technical and fundamental alignment.
Year-to-Date Perspective: Palantir maintains 108.58% YTD gains but shows a modest Total score of only 24, suggesting momentum without a strong technical foundation. Defense contractors Leonardo and BAE Systems show strong YTD performance but negative Total scores (-25 each), indicating potential overextension.
Anomaly Analysis:
Daily anomalies: 14 stocks with ≥±3.0% moves
Weekly anomalies: 4 stocks (PLTR -15.63%, NVO +10.04%, LLY +9.97%, CSLLY -15.41%)
Monthly anomalies: 12 stocks showing ≥±12.5% moves
Signal Analysis: Companies with Total scores above 150 include Sony (151), Toyota (199), and AstraZeneca (200), representing the strongest technical setups. Conversely, CSL shows the weakest Total score at -198, indicating severe technical damage.
Investor Considerations
Weekly Anomaly Alerts:
Palantir Technologies: -15.63% weekly decline with modest Total score (24) despite YTD strength
CSL Limited: -15.41% weekly drop with severely negative Total score (-198)
Novo Nordisk: +10.04% weekly gain conflicts with negative Total score (-35) and monthly weakness
Eli Lilly: +9.97% weekly advance despite a very negative Total score (-129)
Signal Divergences:
Strong weekly performers showing negative Total scores suggest counter-trend rallies
Monthly leaders demonstrate positive Total scores, indicating more sustainable trends
YTD leaders show mixed Total scores, suggesting varying technical foundation quality
Strongest Technical Setups (Total >150):
AstraZeneca (Total: 200)
Toyota Motor (Total: 199)
Sony (Total: 151)
Nintendo (Total: 142)
Weakest Technical Setups (Total <-100):
CSL Limited (Total: -198)
Eli Lilly (Total: -129)
ASM International (Total: -117)
STMicroelectronics (Total: -117)
Bill Cara Perspective
The current market environment reveals a complex technical landscape where short-term price movements often conflict with underlying technical scoring systems. This divergence suggests we are witnessing counter-trend rallies in fundamentally weak names alongside genuine strength in selected industrial and pharmaceutical sectors.
Novo Nordisk exemplifies this contradiction, leading weekly performance with 10.04% gains while maintaining a negative Total score of -35. This pattern, repeated across several weekly leaders, suggests institutional repositioning rather than sustainable trend establishment. The pharmaceutical sector shows particular vulnerability with Eli Lilly's -129 Total score despite strong weekly performance.
The strongest investment opportunities appear concentrated in names with Total scores exceeding 150. AstraZeneca stands out with a Total score of 200 and consistent positive performance across timeframes. Toyota Motor's 199 Total score, combined with substantial monthly gains (17.76%), presents compelling technical alignment.
Technology sector rotation continues, with Arista Networks demonstrating resilience through its 125 Total score and strong monthly performance despite weekly weakness. This contrasts sharply with Palantir's momentum-driven gains, lacking technical foundation support.
The semiconductor equipment sector faces severe technical damage, with both ASM International and STMicroelectronics carrying -117 Total scores alongside -20%+ monthly declines. These represent potential value opportunities for patient capital but require careful timing given the technical deterioration.
Investment Recommendations:
BUY:
AstraZeneca ADR (AZN) – Total: 200, consistent cross-timeframe strength
Toyota Motor Corporation ADR (TM) – Total: 199, strong monthly momentum
Sony (SONY) – Total: 151, robust monthly performance with solid technical foundation
Nintendo Co ADR (NTDOY) – Total: 142, strong YTD performance with positive technical setup
HOLD:
Arista Networks (ANET) – Total: 125, strong monthly gains offset weekly weakness
Fanuc Corporation (FANUY) – Total: 118, leading monthly performance
TRIM:
Palantir Technologies (PLTR) – Despite YTD gains, weekly breakdown with modest Total score (24)
AVOID:
CSL Limited (CSLLY) – Total: -198, severe technical damage across timeframes
Eli Lilly (LLY) – Total: -129, weekly strength unsupported by technical foundation
Integrity Statement: All recommendations and considerations are derived exclusively from Bill Cara's decision rules and the uploaded dataset. Contextual insights are exclusively from Bloomberg, Reuters, Investing.com, Financial Times, Wall Street Journal, MarketWatch, CNBC, Yahoo Finance, Barron’s, Globe & Mail Report On Business, and official government/central bank sources.