Capitalizing on Canada’s Infrastructure Push and Global Rate Cuts

Why Guru Organic, Equinox Gold, and Royal Bank are poised to lead as Canada’s economy gears up for major project investments.

The Canada Report from the Toronto Stock Exchange

September 11, 2025

Performance Snapshot:

(1) Top 3 (1-Day %)

Guru Organic Energy Corp (GURU.TO): 26.9%

D2L Inc (DTOL.TO): 13.0%

Galaxy Digital Holdings Ltd (GLXY.TO): 10.4%

(2) Bottom 3 (1-Day %)

Northstar Clean Technologies Inc (ROOF.V): -5.9%

Sylogist Ltd. (SYZ.TO): -4.6%

Baytex Energy Corp (BTE.TO): -3.4%

Bonterra Energy Corp (BNE.TO): -3.4%

Calfrac Well Services Ltd. (CFW.TO): -3.4%

(3) Top 3 (1-Week %)

Guru Organic Energy Corp (GURU.TO): 36.3%

Tidewater Renewables Ltd (LCFS.TO): 28.2%

Galaxy Digital Holdings Ltd (GLXY.TO): 22.7%•

(4) Bottom 3 (1-Week %)

MDA Ltd (MDA.TO): -29.8%

Algoma Steel Group Inc (ASTL.TO): -10.0%

Patriot Battery Metals Inc (PMET.TO): -9.1%

(5) Top 3 (1-Month %)

Equinox Gold Corp (EQX.TO): 61.5%

I-80 Gold Corp (IAU.TO): 60.8%

Tidewater Renewables Ltd (LCFS.TO): 51.2%

(6) Bottom 3 (1-Month %)

MDA Ltd (MDA.TO): -29.0%

Patriot Battery Metals Inc (PMET.TO): -22.9%

Sylogist Ltd. (SYZ.TO): -16.1%

Quantitative Anomalies & INSTAT Analysis:

•Guru Organic Energy Corp (GURU.TO): 1-Day +26.9%, 1-Month +92.7%. INSTAT Scores: AT +25, ST +50, IN +48, Total +98. The extreme 1-day and 1-month price surges, coupled with uniformly positive INSTAT scores, signal strong algorithmic buying, short-term momentum, and institutional accumulation. This suggests a robust bullish trend, likely driven by positive sentiment around consumer discretionary strength and rate cut expectations boosting growth stocks.

• Equinox Gold Corp (EQX.TO): 1-Day +1.6%, 1-Month +61.5%. INSTAT Scores: AT +23, ST +50, IN +48, Total +98. The significant 1-month price increase alongside positive AT, ST, and IN scores indicates sustained institutional buying and short-term technical strength. This reflects optimism in the materials sector, amplified by Canada’s fast-track project approvals enhancing mining investment prospects.

• I-80 Gold Corp (IAU.TO): 1-Day +0.8%, 1-Month +60.8%. INSTAT Scores: AT +20, ST +50, IN +45, Total +95. The sharp 1-month gain with positive INSTAT scores across all metrics points to algorithmic and institutional support. This aligns with bullish sentiment in precious metals, likely fueled by macro drivers like dovish Fed expectations and a stronger CAD, supporting mining sector momentum.

Bill Cara’s Perspective & Recommendations:

The Toronto Stock Exchange on September 12, 2025, reflects a dynamic interplay of macroeconomic catalysts and sector-specific developments, with Canada’s fast-track approval for major infrastructure and resource projects under PM Mark Carney driving optimism in materials and energy sectors. The S&P/TSX Materials Index (+1.2%) and Energy Index (+0.9%) outperformed on September 11, buoyed by expectations of $10-20B in new investments.

Concurrently, U.S. CPI data (2.7% headline, 3.2% core) has solidified expectations for a 25 bps Federal Reserve rate cut, lifting rate-sensitive sectors like real estate (+1.3%) and consumer discretionary (+1.4%). The Bank of Canada’s 81% odds of a 25-bps cut to 2.50% further supports risk-on sentiment, though tariff risks and CAD appreciation (Loonie at ~0.73) pose challenges for exporters.

Guru Organic Energy Corp (GURU.TO) stands out with a 26.9% 1-day surge and 92.7% 1-month gain, backed by a Total INSTAT score of +98. Its STRONG BUY recommendation stems from positive AT (+25), ST (+50), and IN (+48) scores, reflecting robust algorithmic, short-term, and institutional support. This aligns with consumer discretionary strength amid lower yield expectations (U.S. 10-year at 3.65%). Investors should overweight GURU.TO for its high-conviction growth profile, though monitor CAD/USD volatility, as a stronger Loonie could pressure margins.

Equinox Gold Corp (EQX.TO) and I-80 Gold Corp (IAU.TO) also warrant STRONG BUY recommendations, with 1-month gains of 61.5% and 60.8%, respectively, and Total INSTAT scores of +98 and +95. Their positive AT, ST, and IN scores signal sustained institutional buying in the mining sector, amplified by fast-track project approvals. These stocks offer exposure to materials upside (targeting 5-10% Q4 gains), but investors should watch for tariff-driven CPI spikes (September 16) that could cap gains at 2-3%.

Conversely, MDA Ltd (MDA.TO) exhibits bearish signals with a -29.8% 1-week and -29.0% 1-month drop, despite a Total INSTAT score of -43. Its negative AT (-23) and ST (-50) with a positive IN (+7) trigger a Bearish Trend Alert, suggesting short-term selling pressure against longer-term institutional positioning. A SELL recommendation is advised, as algorithmic and swing trader weakness outweighs institutional support. Investors should exit positions, given concerns about the loss of the Starlink contract as well as tariff risks and potential cost pressures in industrials.

Sylogist Ltd. (SYZ.TO) also merits an AVOID recommendation, with a -4.6% 1-day and -16.1% 1-month decline, and a Total INSTAT score of -82 (AT -24, ST -32, IN -50). All negative scores indicate broad-based technical deterioration, likely reflecting investor caution in technology amid tariff and inflation concerns. Do not initiate positions, as the risk/reward profile is unfavorable.

For diversified exposure, Royal Bank of Canada (RY.TO) and Teck Resources Ltd. (TECKb.TO) are recommended as BUY candidates, with Total INSTAT scores of +98 and +70, respectively. RY.TO’s 7.4% 1-month gain and TECKb.TO’s 28.1% 1-month surge align with financials and materials strength, supported by BoC rate cut odds and project-driven optimism. Add on weakness to capitalize on potential 3-7% gains post-Fed/BoC decisions.

Investors should monitor Canadian CPI (September 16) and BoC’s MPR (September 17) for inflation and rate cut clarity. A CPI above 2.5% could delay cuts, triggering a 1-3% TSX pullback, particularly in exporters like Magna International Inc (MG.TO). Conversely, a dovish BoC and Fed could drive the TSX toward 30,000 by year-end, with materials, energy, and financials leading. Prioritize cash-flow-positive firms to hedge tariff and inflation risks, while tracking TSX Financials Index (target 450 points) and CAD/USD movements for volatility signals.

References:

"Canada Fast-Tracks Major Projects to Boost Economy, Carney Announces" – Globe and Mail, September 11, 2025

"U.S. CPI Cools to 2.7%, Fed Rate Cut Odds Soar" – Bloomberg, September 11, 2025

"BoC Rate Cut Odds Hit 81% as Jobs Data Weakens" – Financial Post, September 11, 2025

"TSX Materials, Energy Stocks Rally on Infrastructure Push" – Reuters, September 11, 2025

"CAD Strengthens to 0.73, Exporters Face Pressure" – BNN Bloomberg, September 11, 2025

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