CANADA WEEKLY INVESTMENT RESEARCH REPORT
Week Ended August 14, 2025
PERFORMANCE TABLE
TOP 2 WEEKLY PERFORMERS:
Equinox Gold Corp (EQX.TO) - Last: $10.80 1-Day: +15.14% | 1-Week: +20.00% | 1-Month: +28.57% | YTD: +49.17% | 1-Year: +50.00% | 3-Years: +98.90%
HudBay Minerals Inc (HBM.TO) - Last: $15.21 1-Day: -2.37% | 1-Week: +18.00% | 1-Month: +7.19% | YTD: +30.45% | 1-Year: +41.49% | 3-Years: +167.78%
BOTTOM 2 WEEKLY PERFORMERS:
Aris Mining Corp TO (ARIS.TO) - Last: $9.45 1-Day: -0.21% | 1-Week: -13.86% | 1-Month: -2.98% | YTD: +87.50% | 1-Year: +66.37% | 3-Years: +173.12%
Bird Construction Inc. (BDT.TO) - Last: $25.44 1-Day: -15.43% | 1-Week: -11.45% | 1-Month: -14.63% | YTD: -2.38% | 1-Year: +0.95% | 3-Years: +256.80%
ANALYTICAL FINDINGS
• Gold Mining Sector Dominance: The top weekly performers are both mining companies (EQX, HBM), with Equinox Gold leading at +20% weekly gain. The precious metals sector shows exceptional momentum heading into late summer.
• Daily Anomaly Alert: Bird Construction (BDT) triggered a severe 1-day anomaly with a -15.43% single-day decline, indicating potential earnings disappointment or sector-specific headwinds in construction.
• Weekly Anomaly Count: 15 stocks exceeded ±7.5% weekly threshold, suggesting elevated market volatility. This represents 10% of the R-92 Canada universe, indicating above-normal dispersion.
• Mining Sector Contradiction: While EQX and HBM surge, Aris Mining (ARIS) shows -13.86% weekly decline despite strong YTD performance (+87.5%), suggesting stock-specific issues rather than sector weakness.
• Construction Sector Weakness: Bird Construction's combined daily (-15.43%) and weekly (-11.45%) decline signals potential sector rotation away from infrastructure plays.
• Momentum Divergence: Top performers show strong multi-timeframe alignment (EQX: positive across all periods), while bottom performers exhibit mixed signals with substantial long-term gains but recent weakness.
• Market Breadth: Strong three-year performance across most names (98.9% to 256.8%) indicates the underlying Canadian equity bull market remains intact despite recent volatility.
• Risk-On Sentiment: Precious metals outperformance combined with construction weakness suggests investors favoring commodity exposure over domestic infrastructure plays.
BILL'S REPORT
The R-92 Canada universe is exhibiting classic late-cycle rotation patterns with precious metals leading and construction lagging. Equinox Gold's explosive 20% weekly surge, combined with its 50% annual gain, positions it as the primary momentum play in the Canadian market. BUY EQX on any pullback to $10.00 support with $12.50 target.
HudBay Minerals deserves accumulation despite Friday's -2.37% pullback. The 18% weekly gain confirms breakout momentum, and the 167% three-year return demonstrates management execution. ADD HBM positions on weakness below $14.50.
Bird Construction's catastrophic -15.43% daily plunge demands immediate attention. The combination of daily and weekly anomalies suggests fundamental deterioration. TRIM or SELL BDT positions aggressively - this breakdown pattern typically leads to further decline.
Aris Mining presents a contrarian opportunity. The -13.86% weekly decline contrasts sharply with 87.5% YTD performance, suggesting temporary technical selling rather than fundamental weakness. ACCUMULATE ARIS below $9.00 for value-oriented accounts.
The 15-stock weekly anomaly count signals heightened volatility ahead. Focus portfolio construction on momentum leaders (mining) while reducing exposure to cyclical weakness (construction). Expect continued sector rotation through month-end as earnings season concludes and September seasonality approaches.
Portfolio Action Items: Increase precious metals allocation to 15-20% (likely lower end) via EQX/HBM positions. Reduce construction/industrial exposure to 5% maximum. Maintain cash reserves at 10-15% (likely higher end) to capitalize on emerging opportunities, as volatility creates mispricing across the Canadian stock universe.
QUANTITATIVE REPORT
Technical Momentum Analysis:
Weekly Anomaly Threshold Breaches: 15 stocks (10% of universe)
Daily Anomaly Threshold Breaches: 11 stocks (7.3% of universe)
Strong Buy Signals: Mining sector showing sustained momentum
Severe Sell Signals: Construction sector showing distribution
Risk Assessment:
Volatility Elevated: Above-normal anomaly counts suggest increased market stress
Sector Rotation Accelerating: Clear winners (mining) and losers (construction) emerging
Momentum Sustainability: Multi-timeframe alignment in top performers supports continued gains
Quantitative Recommendations:
STRONG BUY: EQX.TO (Equinox Gold) - Target: $12.50
BUY/ADD: HBM.TO (HudBay Minerals) - Target: $18.00
ACCUMULATE: ARIS.TO (Aris Mining) - Entry below $9.00
STRONG SELL: BDT.TO (Bird Construction) - Exit immediately
Portfolio Allocation Framework:
Precious Metals: 15% (vs current 10%)
Base Metals: 10-12% (maintain)
Construction/Infrastructure: 5% maximum (reduce from 12%)
Cash/Defensive: 15% (increase from 8%)
Report prepared using Bill Cara's proprietary methodology for the R-92 Canada universe. All recommendations are based on technical analysis and anomaly detection algorithms. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Outstanding research report - the R-92 Canada quantitative framework provides exceptional clarity on the sector rotation dynamics. Equinox Gold's +20% weekly gain combined with multi-timeframe alignment (positive across all periods) is textbook momentum. The Strong Buy rating with $12.50 target appears conservative given the fundamentals - Valentine beginning ore processing and Greenstone ramp-up acceleration should drive further upside. Your observation about late-cycle rotation patterns favoring precious metals over construction is particularly insightfull. The recommendation to increase PM allocation to 15-20% while raising cash to 10-15% balances opportunity capture with volatility management. The contrarian call on Aris Mining below $9.00 also makes sense given the disconnect between the -13.86% weekly drop and +87.5% YTD performance.