Canada – Weekly Investment Report (Initial test)
For Thursday, August 8, 2025
This is a test for the first such report. This data was as of 1:30 pm today.
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Monday: Crypto
Tuesday: UK, Europe & the Middle East
Wednesday: Asia, Far East & Australia
Thursday: Canada
Friday: Macro Factors
Processing Note: The prompt to create this report is eleven pages and is being refined every few days. These weekly reports will become more informative in the next several weeks as the current source data will be cross-analyzed with the preceding weeks’ source data so that trend and cycle reversals will be determined. The contextual information is exclusively from reliable sources; but, in the case of the Weekly Canada report, some of the context will be extracted from my extensive company files as well.
Canada Report
Observations
The Canadian equities landscape this week presents a revealing snapshot of shifting sentiment across several key industries. Notably, energy and materials — traditionally core strengths of the TSX — showed considerable divergence in both price and sentiment. While names like Tourmaline Oil and MEG Energy saw measurable 1-week declines, others such as Cameco and Teck Resources managed slight gains. This inconsistency reflects both commodity price volatility and shifting investor positioning as global risk factors mount.
Tech and financials offered a quieter picture. Heavyweights such as Shopify and Constellation Software hovered around neutral zones, with muted AT (Active Trader) and INV (Investor Sentiment) scores — suggesting a wait-and-see attitude among both retail and institutional players. Bank stocks, including Royal Bank, TD, and BMO, held firm, yet lacked momentum — with INV scores clustered in the low-to-mid range. This aligns with recent macro narratives around stagnant yield curves and cautious central bank tone.
Interestingly, sentiment momentum was stronger in select industrials and infrastructure names. WSP Global and SNC-Lavalin saw notable upward movement in AT scores, potentially signaling bullish retail re-entry. Conversely, telecoms and utilities continued their slide, marked by both weak price action and deteriorating INV scores, particularly with BCE Inc. and Fortis reflecting investor fatigue.
A few outliers stood out. NexGen Energy, driven by uranium enthusiasm, posted high AT scores but diverging INV strength — a potential signal of speculative enthusiasm not yet supported by institutional conviction. Meanwhile, Northland Power saw an unusually strong AT rebound despite a negative price week — a possible early signal of technical bottoming.
Overall, today's Canadian file shows a bifurcated market. Traditional defensives and dividend payers have lost steam, while selected resource and infrastructure stocks attempt to re-establish leadership. The AT/INV divergence across several names implies volatility ahead as conviction remains thin across the board. Investors appear cautious but opportunistic, especially in sectors aligned with energy transition themes.
Analysis
The week’s performance aligns with an ongoing multi-week trend of sectoral divergence within Canada’s equity market. Looking at recent data, the rotation out of low-growth dividend names has persisted — telecoms like BCE, Telus, and utilities such as Fortis have not only underperformed on price but continue to score poorly on both AT and INV metrics. Their inability to recover investor sentiment suggests a secular shift in risk appetite, particularly as global rates stay elevated and investors seek higher growth elsewhere.
Conversely, Canadian energy remains in a tug-of-war between global macro pressures and firming fundamentals. Cenovus, Tourmaline, and MEG Energy have seen volatile AT scores week-to-week, reflecting the sensitivity of retail traders to oil price moves. Yet their INV scores have remained remarkably steady — suggesting institutional buyers are maintaining core exposure, awaiting confirmation of sustained pricing support. This INV resilience contrasts with weaker AT sentiment this week, likely reflecting short-term uncertainty ahead of the August 22–24 Jackson Hole meeting.
In materials, the momentum reversal in Cameco and Teck appears more solid, with upward movement in both AT and INV scores — a bullish signal in an otherwise cautious market. Tech names, including Shopify and Lightspeed, are still struggling to regain traction. Their 1W price trends remain flat or negative, and AT/INV scores show little directional conviction. This reinforces that Canadian growth equity sentiment has yet to recover from macro drag, particularly around interest rate expectations.
Standout changes this week include NexGen Energy’s elevated AT score (+50+), diverging from modest INV levels — a sign of potential overextension by retail traders. Meanwhile, SNC-Lavalin’s rise in both price and sentiment scores signals a positive inflection point for industrial exposure, possibly fueled by long-term infrastructure policy optimism.
Overall, cross-week analysis suggests increasing fragmentation: some sectors are attracting renewed attention from traders, while others remain stuck in neutral or bear phases. Institutions appear selective and risk-aware, while retail sentiment is surfacing in tactical bursts, especially in commodity-tied and infrastructure names.
Guidance
Based on this week’s AT/INV dynamics and 1-week performance trends, several Canadian equities are showing early signals of rotation — either toward bullish momentum or further decline.
STRONG BULL PHASE candidates this week include:
SNC-Lavalin (improving in both price and sentiment)
Cameco Corp. (sustained INV interest with rising AT)
Teck Resources (stable price and increasing sentiment)
These names may merit adding to positions where BULLISH MOMENTUM is turning into conviction buying.
BULLISH MOMENTUM is visible in:
WSP Global
Northland Power (despite negative price, AT rebound suggests bottom-fishing)
Traders may consider adding to positions cautiously here, especially if INV support strengthens next week.
NEUTRAL ratings apply to several financials:
Royal Bank, TD Bank, BMO
Shopify, Constellation Software
These names are in holding patterns. No action is advised unless momentum shifts. Their current posture suggests portfolio stability rather than growth.
BEARISH MOMENTUM flags apply to:
Fortis Inc.
Telus Corp.
Hydro One
Lightspeed Commerce
These stocks have deteriorating AT scores and weakening price performance. Trend followers may consider trimming exposure, particularly in portfolios needing growth catalysts.
STRONG BEAR PHASE applies to:
BCE Inc.
Algonquin Power
Brookfield Renewable
These have broken down both in sentiment and price, with no apparent signs of recovery. They meet the threshold for a SELL or CONTINUE TO AVOID under this week’s model.
A few others, like NexGen Energy, merit caution. Despite elevated AT, the lack of INV strength flags a speculative setup. Traders should watch closely for a confirmation of institutional participation before acting on apparent momentum.
In summary, Canada's equity outlook remains mixed. Institutions remain cautious, while tactical retail participation offers momentum in pockets. The playbook this week favors selective adds to strength, trimming weakness, and avoiding false breakouts until macro clarity improves post-Jackson Hole.
This report on Canada will be the first of five test reports of its kind. Reader comments about the presentation are welcome.