Bill Cara's Market Report from Europe, September 5, 2025
IAG’s 256% Surge: Why Airlines Are Europe’s Hot Bet. Rolls-Royce Hits New Heights, But Risks Mount
Performance Snapshot (123 Instruments)
| Top 3 (1-Day %) |
| Ashtead Group PLC [AHT.L] | 2.82% |
| Capgemini SE [CAPP.PA] | 2.33% |
| Nova [NVMI.TA] | 2.31% |
| Bottom 3 (1-Day %) |
| Barclays PLC [BARC.L] | -2.49% |
| Shell PLC [SHEL.AS] | -2.34% |
| NatWest Group PLC [NWG.L] | -2.32% |
| Top 3 (1-Week %) |
| Adidas AG [ADSGN] | 5.62% |
| Publicis Groupe SA [PUBP.PA] | 4.41% |
| Givaudan SA [GIVN.S] | 3.98% |
| Bottom 3 (1-Week %) |
| Sanofi SA [SASY.PA] | -5.91% |
| Moncler SpA [MONC.MI] | -5.27% |
| Daimler Truck Holding AG [DTGGe] | -4.88% |
| Top 3 (1-Month %) |
| Kering SA [PRTP.PA] | 13.43% |
| CRH PLC [CRH.L] | 11.99% |
| ASML Holding NV [ASML.AS] | 11.35% |
| Bottom 3 (1-Month %) |
| NICE Ltd [NICE.TA] | -12.06% |
| SSE PLC [SSE.L] | -10.87% |
| London Stock Exchange Group PLC [LSEG.L] | -8.22% |
| Top 3 (1-Year %) |
| International Consolidated Airlines Group S.A. [ICAG.BME] | 256.27% |
| Deutsche Bank AG NA O.N. [DBKGn] | 257.38% |
| 3I Group PLC [III.L] | 233.79% |
| Bottom 3 (1-Year %) |
| Kering SA [PRTP.PA] | -52.48% |
| Diageo PLC [DGE.L] | -45.93% |
| Stellantis NV [STLAM.PA] | -44.89% |
Quantitative Anomalies & INSTAT Analysis
Three significant anomalies emerge from the dataset based on Bill Cara’s thresholds. First, International Consolidated Airlines Group S.A. [ICAG.BME] shows a 1-year price anomaly with a 256.27% gain, reflecting strong long-term momentum. Its INSTAT scores (AT: 20, ST: 60, INV: 140, Total: 200) are uniformly positive, indicating robust algorithmic, short-term, and institutional buying, reinforcing a bullish trend across all timeframes. Second, Deutsche Bank AG NA O.N. [DBKGn] exhibits a 1-year price anomaly with a 257.38% increase, paired with a Bearish Trend Alert (ST: -48, INV: 84). This suggests short-term technical weakness against strong institutional positioning, potentially signaling a near-term pullback within a longer-term uptrend. Third, Rolls-Royce Holdings PLC [RR.L] displays an extraordinary 1-year price anomaly with a 1302.03% surge, alongside a Bearish Cyclic Alert (AT: -15, ST: 33). This indicates algorithmic selling pressure contrasting with short-term momentum, suggesting potential volatility as traders may be taking profits against algorithmic resistance.
Bill Cara’s Perspective & Recommendations
The European market, as of September 5, 2025, presents a complex landscape with pockets of exceptional strength and areas of significant concern, driven by sector-specific dynamics and broader economic trends. International Consolidated Airlines Group S.A. [ICAG.BME] stands out with a 256.27% 1-year gain, fueled by a robust recovery in global travel demand, as reported by Bloomberg. The airline sector has benefited from relaxed travel restrictions, improved operational efficiencies, and favorable fuel cost hedging, per Reuters. ICAG’s perfect INSTAT alignment (AT: 20, ST: 60, INV: 140) signals sustained bullish momentum across algorithmic, swing, and institutional traders, making it a STRONG BUY. Investors should overweight this stock in growth-oriented portfolios, capitalizing on its resilience and sector tailwinds. Deutsche Bank AG NA O.N. [DBKGn] has delivered a 257.38% 1-year return, driven by successful restructuring and strong capital markets performance, as noted in the Financial Times. However, its Bearish Trend Alert (ST: -48, INV: 84) suggests short-term technical weakness, likely due to profit-taking after a prolonged rally. A TRIM recommendation is prudent to manage risk, locking in gains while monitoring for re-entry opportunities. Rolls-Royce Holdings PLC [RR.L] has surged 1302.03% over the past year, propelled by aerospace sector recovery and significant defense contract wins, per Reuters. Its Bearish Cyclic Alert (AT: -15, ST: 33) indicates algorithmic selling against short-term momentum, suggesting near-term volatility. A SELL recommendation is advised to secure profits, as the stock may face consolidation. On the downside, Stellantis NV [STLAM.PA] (-44.89% 1-year) and Kering SA [PRTP.PA] (-52.48% 1-year) faces severe headwinds. Stellantis, impacted by softening automotive demand and supply chain disruptions, as reported by Barron’s, shows fully negative INSTAT scores (AT: -20, ST: -60, INV: -140), warranting an AVOID recommendation due to poor risk/reward. Kering, despite a recent 13.43% monthly gain, struggles with a slowdown in the luxury sector, according to the Financial Times. The negative INV (-80) supports an AVOID stance, as long-term positioning remains weak. A broader market context from the Report on Business highlights mixed European economic signals, with the manufacturing PMI improving but consumer sentiment lagging, which is impacting the luxury and automotive sectors. Investors should focus on selective opportunities, such as ICAG.BME, which benefits from structural tailwinds, while cautiously managing exposure to overbought names like RR.L and avoiding underperformers like STLAM.PA and PRTP.PA. Tactical portfolio adjustments are critical in this uneven market, prioritizing resilience and momentum.
References:
1. "IAG Soars as Travel Demand Rebounds Strongly," Bloomberg, August 2025.
2. "Deutsche Bank’s Turnaround Fuels Record Stock Gains," Financial Times, July 2025.
3. "Rolls-Royce Benefits from Aerospace and Defense Boom," Reuters, June 2025.
4. "Luxury and Auto Sectors Face Demand Challenges," Barron’s, September 2025.