Beyond the Bull Market: A Reader Confirmed Gold’s True Role in a Great Unraveling
A follow-up to my earlier comments about Gold
In this weekend’s Global Navigator Report and again this morning in a post titled, “The Gold Bull Isn’t Dead: Global Instability Fuels Precious Metals,” I wrote that Friday’s brutal sell-off was only a shakeout, not a reversal. I argued that gold’s strength comes from a deep and persistent global instability that transcends simple narratives.
Then, close associate Daniel DeNeve left a comment following my Substack article that was so insightful I had to share it. He suggested that what we are seeing is not just a straightforward bull market, but potentially “the early innings of a Western, debt-based collapse and massive sea change toward a more multi-polar and mercantilist global economy”.
He didn’t disagree with my premise; he gave it a name and a structure. He confirmed that the “profound global instability” I spoke of is not some vague, chaotic force. It is a tangible, systemic realignment, and the gold bull market is merely a symptom of this much larger trend.
This is exactly the macro picture I believe investors need to grasp. The two ideas—a bull market driven by instability and a systemic debt unraveling—are not separate. They are cause and effect.
So, I asked Dan to flesh out his comment, and he sent an extensive note that I will now review.
Two Sides of the Same Golden Coin
My core argument has been that gold thrives when confidence in our political and financial systems wanes. DeNeve’s perspective, supported by analysis from observers like Francis Hunt and Chris McIntosh, provides the crucial “why”. The loss of confidence isn’t just among individual investors; it’s happening at the state level.
Consider the evidence they presented:
Sovereign De-Dollarization: Central banks, particularly in BRICS nations, are stockpiling physical gold at a historic pace. They added 415 tons in the first half of 2025 alone. This isn’t a hedge against last month’s CPI report; it is a strategic, long-term pivot away from a US-centric financial system.
The Physical Disconnect: A clear gap is emerging between the “paper price” of gold in London and the physical price in the East. Premiums in the Shanghai Gold Exchange show that real metal is being drawn away from Western vaults to meet insatiable demand elsewhere. This is the free market signaling a massive loss of faith in the paper-leveraged Western system.
The Unpayable Debt: This is all happening against the backdrop of a $315 trillion global debt trap and a US debt-to-GDP ratio exceeding 130%. At this scale, debt is no longer just a financial metric; it is a national security vulnerability that is forcing a global reassessment of what constitutes “money.”
What Dan DeNeve so brilliantly articulated in a very few words is that my thesis of “instability” and his of a “debt-based collapse” are one and the same. The latter is simply the engine driving the former.
The Investor’s Takeaway: A Shift in Perspective
This understanding does not change my strategic conclusion, but it deepens the conviction behind it.
The advice remains the same: view sharp pullbacks as opportunities to add to high-conviction positions in the precious metals space. The resilience we saw in miners like Avino Silver (ASM) and Endeavour Silver (EXK), which posted strong weekly gains despite Friday’s bloodbath, is a testament to the underlying strength of this trend.
However, the reason for this conviction is now much clearer. We are not merely investing in a cyclical bull market. We are positioning for a systemic shift. This is not about timing the Fed’s next move; it’s about owning a timeless, non-sovereign asset at a time when the value of sovereign debt and fiat currency is being called into question globally.
DeNeve’s sources suggest a 10-15% portfolio allocation to gold and silver as a hedge against this scenario, as do I. In a world where a “debt collapse” moves from a fringe theory to a data-supported probability, that advice seems not just prudent, but essential.
My thanks to Dan DeNeve. He helped crystallize the most important point of all: the gold bull market isn’t the story. It’s the footnote to a much bigger one about the unraveling of an old order and the dawn of a new one.