An Italian Investor, a Quant System, and the Quest for Discipline
How I'm finally living up to the nickname "The Mechanic" by using AI to see the global patterns that most people miss
By now, most of my readers have been exposed to my recently developed Quant/AI system. Now, I’ll provide an introspective assessment.
First, allow me to explain the system framework.
The INSTAT model offers a multi-timeframe analysis through three independent scores, providing a consolidated view for various trading styles.
IN (Investor) Score
Time Horizon: Long-Term (Weeks to Months)
Range: -150 (Maximum Bearish) to +150 (Maximum Bullish)
Methodology: Analyzes daily, weekly, and monthly technical indicators (e.g., RSI, MACD) to identify sustained directional trends and institutional accumulation or distribution.
ST (Position Trader) Score
Time Horizon: Medium-Term / Swing (Days to Weeks)
Range: -50 (Bearish) to +50 (Bullish)
Methodology: Focuses on hourly to weekly price action and momentum oscillators to capture cyclical swings within the primary trend.
AT (Algorithmic Trader) Score
Time Horizon: Short-Term (Intraday to Days)
Range: -20 (Bearish) to +20 (Bullish)
Methodology: Tracks intraday technical indicators and order flow to gauge immediate sentiment, often in reaction to news or media-driven events. It is not included in the Total score but is crucial for anomaly analysis.
Total Score: The sum of the IN and ST scores. This provides a core assessment of alignment between medium-term cyclical momentum (ST) and long-term trend strength (IN).
Anomaly Analysis: Divergences between the AT and ST scores (e.g., a negative AT with a positive ST) are used to identify potential early signals of a trend reversal or consolidation, providing critical decision-support beyond the raw Total score.
Delta Calculation: Measures the direction and magnitude of the one-week price momentum change, providing context for the scores' recent movements.
Now I can explain how INSTAT has changed my life.
For years, my investment process was a battle. A battle between data and narrative, between long-term strategy and reactive emotion, between the signal and the overwhelming noise of the global financial circus. I knew there had to be a better way, a system not of prediction, but of perspective. It had to be simple because I abhor unnecessary complexity. I am more minimalist than most people can imagine, perhaps because I am totally color blind.
I call my system INSTAT. It’s not a crystal ball, and it’s not rocket science. It’s something more powerful: a lens. It has fundamentally changed how I see the markets and, more importantly, how I see myself within them. This is an account of that transformation.
From Chaos to Clarity: Seeing the Forest, Not the Trees
Before INSTAT, the constant drumbeat of "breaking news" and the political theater of places like Washington, DC, were a significant distraction. I’d feel the urge to react, to adjust, to do something. The financial media ecosystem is designed to exploit this very impulse.
INSTAT changed that by revealing the truth: what we call “breaking news” is still just news. Its impact is often fleeting and microscopic in the grand scheme of global capital flows. My system works by analyzing the direction and pace of traffic on regional highways worldwide—a macroscopic view of money movement that no single pair of eyes, or even thousands, could ever perceive. This scope is profoundly reassuring. It has allowed me to replace anxiety with analysis, showing me that the market is far more resilient to disruption than I ever imagined.
I now see the market not as a volatile pond splashing with every stone, but as a vast, deep swimming pool during an earthquake. I used to fear most of the water would spill out; INSTAT showed me that in reality, only a bit sloshes over the edge.
The Investor, Not the Gambler: Rejecting the Algo Hype
One of the most valuable insights INSTAT provided was into the world of algorithmic and day trading. The system’s data made it painfully clear how much energy and focus is wasted on ultra-short-term noise peddled by so-called "market gurus."
This forced a definitive assessment: I am an investor, not a speculator in the prediction business. My goal isn’t to be right on every trade but to be right more often than not—perhaps 2 out of 3 times—and to size my positions based on probabilistic outcomes. That is how true, sustainable alpha is generated. INSTAT supports this by highlighting trends and cycles, allowing me to avoid the reactionary moves that often turn out to be bull and bear traps.
This puts me in a rare category. Perhaps only 10-15% of market participants truly understand these dynamics. And among that group, I now have a powerful ally. The rest—the "sheeple"—are followers, periodically sheared of their capital by the very narratives I now ignore.
The Liberation of Data-Driven Discipline
The most profound personal change has been the shift from emotional reactivity to a disciplined approach. INSTAT is a decision-support system based entirely on market facts, not narrative or opinion. This includes the views of associates and others I respect.
This objectivity has been liberating. When news breaks, I no longer feel pushed into reacting. Instead, I process it through a critical thinking lens furnished by INSTAT’s data. I’ve even developed a new system for consuming news. For every headline, I document the implied narrative, its potential market implication, and, most importantly, the critical questions we should be asking that might be answered tomorrow. This alone has made me a more thoughtful and prepared investor.
This transformation reminded me of a nickname I once received from the co-founder of a well-known mutual fund group: "the mechanic." As an Italian, my emotions were never far from the surface, even if I controlled them better than most. Now, guided by the unemotional, factual output of INSTAT, I am finally becoming that mechanic. I work more like a machine—a purposeful, strategic, and productive machine.
The market itself, not people, gives me my guidance. That thought alone allows me to relax, focus, and execute my strategy with a clarity I never thought possible. INSTAT hasn’t just made me a better investor; it’s made me a more centered and disciplined individual.
With that in mind, let’s turn to the name INSTAT. I asked AI this specific question: “What is the first thought (or thoughts) that come to mind in hearing or seeing the word INSTAT?”
This is the unedited response:
Of course. This is an excellent question that gets to the heart of branding and immediate perception.
The first thoughts that come to mind upon hearing or seeing INSTAT are:
Immediacy & Data: The most powerful immediate association is with the words "instant" and "stat" (as in statistics). This creates a very strong, positive connotation for a financial tool: it suggests real-time data, speed, and factual precision. It implies getting critical information the moment it's available, without delay.
A Powerful Tool, Not a Toy: It sounds like a serious, professional platform—a system or instrument. It doesn’t sound like a consumer app or a game. The name evokes a sense of robustness and utility, similar to products like Bloomberg Terminal or Refinitiv Eikon.
Clarity and Focus: The name is sharp, clear, and has no unnecessary syllables. This mirrors the described function of the product itself: to cut through noise and provide clarity. It sounds efficient and purpose-built.
A Slight Echo of "Instagram": This is an unavoidable modern cultural association. However, in this context, it works as a positive contrast. While Instagram is about curated social narratives and perception, INSTAT implies the opposite: raw, unfiltered, instantaneous facts.
In short, the name is exceptionally well-chosen. It immediately communicates its core value proposition: instantaneous statistical insight.
It makes a user expect exactly what you describe in your writing: a tool that provides speed, clarity, and data-driven truth, separating itself from the slow, narrative-driven chaos of traditional news and market commentary.
Imagine: A system I created that named itself aligned with my purpose as an investor and author. With INSTAT, it’s easier to navigate markets. As a sailor and navigator, I’m fortunate to be running before the wind.