America First, Canada Rising

Current US policy is inadvertently positioning Canada as the hemisphere’s safe haven

I must respond to a comment made here at billcara.com by Terry Ciccarelli, who is my loving brother. He was critical of my assessment of Canada’s Prime Minister Mark Carney in my article ‘The Carney Doctrine’.

(Bill) Your direction, as an investment advisor, is clearly praiseworthy. However, the reality of the opening paragraph is that hours before PM Carney spoke his WORDS in a forum of words his actions spoke volumes. His first ACTION in his New World Order was to engage Communist China and achieve MOU’s in areas of culture, police security, military and trade that are heavily in favor of China. The intention, in part, was to poke the bear over punitive tariffs brought by the Trump Administration. The result was what China wanted: No mention of Canada in the Greenland debacle or the reported outcome with a NATO-based solution. Can one really expect the USA to include a potential satellite of China in the Golden Dome Arctic security program?

Terry, I want my reply to your comments regarding my “Carney Doctrine” article to be received as a note on Canadian economic strategy and investment implications, and not a political rant.

You questioned Canada’s strategic positioning in response to current US trade policy. As an investment analyst with fiduciary responsibilities, I will address these concerns based on observable facts and their market implications.

The notion that Canada enjoys permanent protection from US trade actions lacks empirical support. The current administration has demonstrated a willingness to impose tariffs and trade restrictions on allied nations, especially Canada, as recent policy announcements make clear.

Regarding terminology: If we’re applying political labels to China’s system, we should apply equal scrutiny to emerging authoritarian tendencies in American governance. Chinese Communist Party membership statistics indicate approximately 6.9-7% of mainland Chinese are party members. Based on observable political rhetoric and policy directions under the current US administration, comparable percentages of Americans appear to embrace authoritarian nationalism.

The Carney Doctrine represents the most significant strategic pivot in Canadian policy since 1945. Prime Minister Carney has articulated that the world’s middle powers must actively defend democratic institutions and rule of law -- or face severe economic consequences. This isn’t political posturing—it’s economic realism.

The China vehicle agreement demonstrates strategic foresight. The 49,000 Chinese EVs will offset Tesla’s declining Canadian presence as that company’s leadership actively undermines Canadian interests. These competitively priced vehicles will establish distribution and service infrastructure to replace traditional US automaker operations that face increasing risk of US-mandated repatriation.

Carney’s multi-phase strategy anticipates predictable escalation patterns. When the current US administration doubles down—as behavioral patterns suggest is probable—Canada will be positioned to transition abandoned US manufacturing facilities to Chinese automotive production, combining superior EV technology with Canadian aluminum supply chains that the US cannot easily replace.

The next strategic move appears to be defense procurement: partnerships with Sweden’s Saab and UK’s Rolls-Royce for Arctic-capable fighter aircraft that address actual operational requirements in the Arctic rather than political considerations.

Investment Thesis: These policies are inadvertently strengthening Canada’s global position. International surveys consistently show Canada as the preferred destination for skilled immigrants from China, India, major European nations, and beyond. Vancouver, Calgary, Toronto, and Montreal rank above all US cities in global livability indices.

Prime Minister Carney is positioning Canada as an increasingly attractive alternative to US markets for both capital and talent—an outcome accelerated by current US policy directions.

Regarding nomenclature: I use the family’s original German name (Drumpf) from when the President’s grandfather had his German citizenship revoked for draft evasion—a historical fact with direct parallel to the current president’s own military service record. This is particularly relevant given recent deeply disparaging remarks about Allied forces who served alongside Americans in global conflicts.

I do not engage in political commentary lightly. I made that decision before moving billcara.com from my server to Substack. However, as a fiduciary investment manager, I must analyze observable facts and position portfolios accordingly. The data supports these strategic assessments. I suspect Prime Minister Carney would prefer not to execute these policies, just as I would prefer not to adjust investment strategies based on deteriorating US governance. But competent stewardship requires responding to reality, and in this case, that means recognizing both the threats and opportunities that current circumstances present for Canadian and global investors.