Cara's Commentary & Community Chat, Tues., Feb. 3, 2009

[8:00am ET] I have been so busy, I just picked up this blog entry from kaimu from Monday morning:

ALOHA!!

I am now freezing my ass off in Dallas, headed to San Diego then back to Hawaii about mid Feb …

Even though I was under the weather, with a bad cold, almost the whole time I was in the Bahamas I had a great time there and was able to do some business, even marketing orchids!

My thanks to Bill & Co … for an insiders look at the BAHAMAS … Very enlightening! I enjoyed the “mates” and the “piss up” at the CRICKET CLUB!! No “cricket” !!

Really very awesome tour, via private plane, of the outer islands. Much appreciation to Jim Watt (CTAB) for his expert pilot skills and a “wee bit” to his Scottish co-pilot!! HA!! When Bill gets to posting the photos they are a must see! Thank you BILL for an excellent adventure!

Whoever here who is lucky enough to go to the upcoming CTAB CONFERENCE will be well rewarded no matter what reasons you use to go there! I can say there is much behind the scenes planning for the CTAB event going on now. You will be impressed!!

Once again Bill … thank you … MAHALO !!!

Gotta plane to catch !!! TA!!!

Kaimu, the Scottish co-pilot says to tell you,


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London
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London

okay out at 19 and change, hope some enjoyed yesterdays idea.

Grym
Guest
Grym

Mackinaw,

Dream subject matter

LOL! At 71 the quality of my dreams is not what it was at 17 either!

Grym
Guest
Grym
Grym
Guest
Grym
Ron Sen
Guest
Ron Sen
Seamus
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Seamus

Checking in from Australia, taking advantage of the weak AUD to check out a few things and catch some R&R. Monitoring the markets from afar and planning on checking in, now and then. First impression here in Sydney is very positive. Friendly people. Diverse population. Economy does not appear to be as bad as U.S. or others, although some talking heads opine Australia lags 6 months behind economically. Would have to say majority of visitors/tourists appear to be from Asia, mostly Chinese, although there are a number of Europeans, Canadians and Americans. Prime Minister just announced a $42B stimulus that… Read more »

Dboy
Guest
Dboy

I use WealthLab (free if you have an account at Fidelity, but only runs on Windows). Some people use Amibroker..costs money. Just Google “trading back testing” and you’ll find something.

Dboy

jrinbc
Guest
jrinbc

Good Evening (Morning?) all; Can anyone suggest a good piece of software that can be used for back-testing TA strategies? I’ve been developing some simple rules that I like to use, but I’m concerned about the long-term viability of these rules and need confirmation before I start throwing a lot of money at it. I’m still learning to accept small losses (but now do so with a shrug) and look for the big trends. It’s been a real eye-opener over the past couple of years to see how much of a role personal psychology plays (i.e. confirmation bias) in my… Read more »

Dboy
Guest
Dboy

“So it is reasonable to start scaling into oil now” I’m watching the energies very closely. Depending on the time-frame you’re looking at, oil is either flat or down, so I don’t see any particular reason to start scaling in now. Of course my opinion may change tomorrow as the whole MARKET seems like a coiled spring. Then again that coiled spring could turn out to be a Slinky walking down a staircase. I’ve seen some oil-related stocks begin to turn upward (such as PBR), so a turn certainly could come soon, but the trend is definitely not up yet.… Read more »

David
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David

at $9.5, so as to trap a potential down spike in the morning.

Illini
Guest
Illini

Symbol Last Trade
BAC Feb 3 5.30 Down 0.70 Down 11.67% 356,020,097
C Feb 3 3.46 Down 0.19 Down 5.21% 166,696,084

The precipice is the $5 thresh hold. How much bad can the system stand? Maybe the bookies of Las Vegas ought to run this one.

nofed
Guest
nofed

Kevin Depew Deflation & Coming Soon? Punitive Taxes on the Rich Why is the Fed so phobic about such an important word? Two reasons: First, the Fed itself IS inflation. Increases in the money supply are what causes inflation. Rising prices are simply the result of the Fed’s inflationary policies. Two, recognizing this fact, Fed members will rarely utter the word deflation publicly because doing so is similar to an outright admission of impotence. Put another way, if the Fed says it is concerned with “undesirably low levels of inflation,” then what they are really concerned with is a lack… Read more »

nofed
Guest
nofed

Michael Phelps Threatened by Sheriff This case is no different than any other case,” Lott said yesterday. “This one might be a lot easier since we have photographs of someone using drugs and a partial confession. It’s a relatively easy case once we can determine where the crime occurred Leon Lott, the Richland County, South Carolina sheriff, wants to charge Phelps with a crime. http://backporch.fanhouse.com/2009/02/03/michael-p… This outrage is minor compared to the problem the US has created in Mexico with it’s “war on drugs”. Nobody would be more upset than the Drug Cartels if we decriminalized pot. Legalize it and… Read more »

Illini
Guest
Illini

That did not work as I googled news “Heat Rises on Dow Chemical”

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB123358978236239621… is the link.

WSJ still thinks its news is worth $$ while its editorial crap is too obviously free and flawed.

David
Guest
David

Dr. Strangelove, this chart most likely reflects the costs of starting a new project (and less likely it is just made up). Suncor predicted (in their most recent earnings report a couple of weeks ago) that their oil production costs for 2009 will be in the $33-$38 range. I am attaching a chart showing the operating costs for the other producers. If oil stays below $20 for the long term, then all Canadian oil sands will be shut down. However, based on this chart they produce only 2.4 million bpd, and with the current demand the world will not notice… Read more »

Ad
Guest
Ad

Thanks for the reply Bill. Great analogy. A mix of observation and experience. Guess if I work on the observation the experience will come. I reckon by the time the boys reach their teens, I might have figured this all out!

Also, if I may, I just have one more question. When you say you didn’t like the action (SLW 12/03), what bits of ‘evidence’ did you not like? We are only talking about a 3c move, so I figure it can’t have been only the price.

All the best
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Mark Barry
Guest
Mark Barry

Dr.- How does the article define “marginal Costs”? I can’t open the link. According to a client of mine that was in the business on the global side, and is still the Chairman of a small exploration and production Co., the #’s you are looking at include exploration. I spoke with him yesterday and he said that all of the independent Ex/Pr guys have buttoned down tighter than a drum. Remember these are the companies that actually go out and find/supply the majority of the oil. Seems like a compressed spring to me…We wont ever learn.

NYUGrad
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NYUGrad
NYUGrad
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NYUGrad

Great stuff. I will add that gif to my folder. I actually did that particular mickey mouse chart after i had sold. I was never an investor in that time period on the chart. but i went back to look at how slw reacted in bull mode.

Points taken. will stare at it some more.

Thanks again for playing down to my level in this rendition of charts for dummies with NYUgrad.

Dr. Strangelove
Guest
Dr. Strangelove

Looking for oil production costs by region/country?

Here’s a chart I’ve seen around and repost from Jessie’s blog that shows oil in the $70 to $80 range for marginal costs. Something or someone’s gonna give with oil at $40 as suggested by Bill.

http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_H2DePAZe2gA/SYj8f8EoTGI/AAAAAAAAH_c/liZqa38kC4s/s1600-h/CERAoilcost200810(2)_0.png