We offer regular reviews of topics that are important to asset owners and managers who trade capital markets. Our opinions and insights are freely shared.

Roll-On?

  Unsurprisingly, the past week’s news was dominated by….the trade war with China. We learn of a significant development after the Friday market close. China reportedly decided to scrap planned trade talks with the U.S. and is unlikely to sit down with Washington until after November’s mid-term elections. In addition to new tariffs on $200

Roll-On?

Après La Pluie, Le Beau Temps

This past week we saw an interesting reversal in the Turkish lira. On Thursday morning, President Erdogan declared that Turkish interest rates needed to be lower to support the economy. The lira dropped over -3% against the dollar on the news. Then in the afternoon, in complete defiance of Erdogan, the Turkish central bank gave

Après La Pluie, Le Beau Temps

Managing Volatility at WMA Cara

  We have been working on an improved trading methodology for the Natural Resources portfolio (which we like so much that we’ll apply this methodology to Top Picks as well).  As many readers know, Bill Cara is taking a break to deal with personal and business issues.  The volatility of the Natural Resources sector requires

Managing Volatility at WMA Cara

Emerging Divergences

Emerging market contagion was the topic of discussion this week in the financial press. While U.S. equity indexes retreated (tech stocks a bit more), we can hardly talk about a spillover of the debacle in many emerging markets, with the S&P 500 down less than 1% for the week. Fear over a new round of

Emerging Divergences

And What If The Market Is Missing Signs Of Economic Slowing?

This past week we saw technology stocks soar in one-way trading, reminiscent of the 1998-2000 Tech Bubble. Throwing caution into the wind would be an understatement. Amazon passed $2020 per share vs. $753 in January 2017. Apple crossed above $228 (thanks Warren!) vs. $112 in January 2017. Microsoft broke above $112 vs. $60 in January

And What If The Market Is Missing Signs Of Economic Slowing?

Ultra Yield Stocks Will Keep Paying Off

The melt-up continues in U.S. equities. Nothing seems to go wrong (or rather be interpreted negatively by markets). Trade war negotiations between the U.S. and China broke off without a resolution. But Fed Chair Powell signaled on Friday that the central bank has no intention of accelerating the pace of rate hikes. Perhaps the message

Ultra Yield Stocks Will Keep Paying Off

Don’t Be Turkey

Trade War or not to Trade War, that is the question. With the central banksters taking a secondary role in the determination of the direction of financial markets, traders (and the financial media) have needed to find other reasons this year to explain why the equity market does what it does. Although we knew that

Don’t Be Turkey

Double Dealing Company Execs

The big story this week was the Turkish currency meltdown and potential contagion to the Eurozone. The lira fell at one point -35% against the U.S. dollar. Can we blame Trump for this also? There has been escalating tension over the detention of an American pastor, with Trump ordering some tariffs on Turkish metals to

Double Dealing Company Execs

$ 1 Trillion, With A T

More trade war threats filled financial media headlines this week. Trump’s team this week ordered officials to consider imposing a 25% tax on $200 billion worth of imported Chinese goods, up from an initial 10% rate. The move was intended to bring China back to the negotiating table for talks over U.S. demands for structural

$ 1 Trillion, With A T

Amazon: The Next Big Short?

Yet another week when a “Trump news event” moves markets. In the backdrop of a burgeoning trade war with Europe, Jean-Claude Juncker, European Commission President made a trip to the White House. Concessions were made (as if the leaders had a choice) and risk assets rejoiced. We can’t imagine that risk assets have been “restrained”

Amazon: The Next Big Short?

Stock Buy-Backs…And Insider Selling

New highs again this past week for the Nasdaq, as broad U.S. indexes all drifted higher. Not much in the way of economic news this past week as U.S. companies move into the earnings reporting period. Thus far, companies are  almost unanimously beating consensus estimates. But this is to be expected. Since 2011, the broad

Stock Buy-Backs…And Insider Selling

Two Charts To Watch

Another blow out week for U.S. mega-cap stocks. Of the Big 5 (Apple, Microsoft, Google, Amazon, and Facebook), all but Apple traded at all-time record highs this week (Apple remained a scant 1% below its June record high). Second-quarter earnings season for the FANG stocks is about to get started, which likely explains the disproportionate

Two Charts To Watch

What I have learned over 50+ years of trading

Change is constant. Markets are competitive. For the owners and managers of assets, only students of the market survive. We must learn to adapt to change. That involves the continuous study of  ​social and political change, macro-economic data and business conditions, international trade and taxation, commodity prices, interest rates and market liquidity, emerging markets, industry life cycles, corporate balance sheets and operating fundamentals, investor sentiment, trading research methodologies, and so forth. Needing to be a specialist at just one thing is a myth. Multiple interests and skills are required.

We all have it in our power to develop sufficient expertise to trade as well as most professionals. However, like anything in life, the experience needed to survive and prosper takes time and should not be rushed.

How to trade, survive and prosper

Through our publications, we offer a practical guide that incorporates an holistic approach to trading capital markets. Before we should buy any security, we need to understand the market and how to trade.

We believe we should buy only what we need and to buy the highest quality. The basic choices are Growth, Value or Yield. You should ignore any other marketing label put by to the sell-side. Understand that large-, mid- and small-cap companies or companies that operate in different regions of the world is simply your preference.

To ascertain the highest quality for Growth, Value and Yield requires a study of corporate fundamentals, comparing performance of one company to all other companies. In our proprietary database of almost 5,000 companies, we input the data of about 15 datapoints from Bloomberg and Thomson Reuters and then calculate weekly composite scores for Growth, Value and Yield, which we then rank from best to worst. For the most part, we are interested only in the highest quality companies. For order entry timing optimization, we study the market price & volume data for each of these companies from about 50 datapoints we capture from various sources on a daily and perhaps intra-daily basis.

Each portfolio is created and managed to meet different investor requirements; however, the trading methodology we use is consistent with what we know from experience works.

To guide our readers, we produce a Cara 100 list that balances Growth, Value and Yield considerations. This freely accessible list of what we consider to be quality companies is updated at the end of each quarter year, based on relative fundamentals, giving a range of large-, mid- and small-cap companies.