October 26, 2023
The recent market data indicates a significant downturn in key indices and stocks. The market is experiencing a broad-based decline, as shown by technical indicators this month. But now there are multiple support levels broken across various indices and key stocks.
- S&P 500: The index has broken important support levels, including the 200-day moving average and the rising support line. The breach of these levels suggests a downward trend in stock prices.
- Small Caps: The Russell 2000 iShares have hit a new yearly low, indicating a potential downtrend continuation. The S&P 500 Equal Weighted Index has fallen to its lowest level in a year.
- Downtrends: The percentage of S&P 500 stocks above their 200-day averages has dropped to 28%, the lowest level in the year. This suggests that the majority of stocks are trading below their long-term averages.
- Market Leaders: Former market leaders like Meta (META), Alphabet (GOOGL), and Apple (AAPL) have experienced significant sell-offs, contributing to the broad market downturn.
I was holding out for a 1Q2024 crash, but I now have to say that what comes next depends on the Fed and the HFT group. They are the ones that control prices.
We are now looking for the next cycle low on the daily charts to see how far the market drops or if this is the major Bear that the fearmongers have been predicting.