Cara's Commentary & Community Chat, Wed., Feb. 4, 2009

[7:27am ET] I have finally run out of patience with Microsoft, the company and its policies. Enough is enough. I am as you know an addicted user of computers. Mine was manufactured by one of the world


Like to give your opinion? Join our Community Discussion

Subscribe
Notify of

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.

0 Comments
Inline Feedbacks
View all comments
Grym
Grym
February 5, 2009 1:55 pm
Grym
Grym
February 5, 2009 1:43 pm

NYUGrad, Yeah, but the “joke” is a sick one. If this were a soldier on guard duty (the job of the SEC) he would be court-martialed for dereliction of duty. But then, in the army, instead of claiming “Executive privilege” the proper answer would be, “No excuse, Sir!” Which in the case of the SEC seems obvious. As I watched the Markopolos testimony I recalled the PBS program earlier in the week revealing how the NSA had Bin Laden’s phone number and massive amounts of info on the 9/11 attackers, but wouldn’t/couldn’t pass it on to FBI and CIA. All… Read more »

alan
alan
February 5, 2009 8:57 am

I know you’ve had a lot of advice here from some highly qualified members, my two cents: Make sure run ESOD for virus protection, then periodically you run CCleaner, then CHKDSK/r then Perfectdisk which will keep you running smoothly Most important though is using Acronis True Image. If you have a desktop, you can simply save a mirror image of your main disk onto your backup disk. Create a mirror once a week, then if the main fails, gets a virus or whatever, you just boot from your backup. If you use a laptop, you just mirror to a second… Read more »

Bill Cara
Bill Cara
Reply to  alan
February 5, 2009 12:31 pm

alan, thank you. I do have a mirror drive plus all the anti-virus and firewall stuff I need. My system has been running fine. The problem was that a local techie decided I could not wait several weeks to re-install my corrupted (but legit) Windows as I did not have the original disk, so he installed a counterfeit copy, which the latest Microsoft software legitimately caught. I’ll rectify that at a cost of $25 plus $$$$ in frustration. Partly my frustration extends to Microsoft because they are set up as a sales machine and not a service company. If they… Read more »

davefairtex
davefairtex
February 5, 2009 7:39 am

He gets the best deals. The latest one? He’s buying a chunk of Swiss Re. Actually he’s getting a call option, but they’re paying him for the option. They pay him 12% annually, for 3 years, and his option is already in the money. They call it a “convertible bond” – but with a 12% coupon, and an exercise price that’s below the current market price. Exercise Price: 25 francs. Currently trading at 30 francs. Annual interest rate: 12% Value: $2 billion. (Company value: $10 billion; i.e. 20% of the company) “I can see your house is on fire. I… Read more »

NYUGrad
NYUGrad
February 5, 2009 7:07 am

Every investor who has a 401k, roth ira, ever bought a stock or bond, student of the market, historian, patriot, citizen, should view his testimony.

1. CSPAN – Harry Markopolos(includes full testimony and Q&A)
http://tinyurl.com/b5v777

2. SEC Non-testimony
http://tinyurl.com/ajdq3t

3. Frm. Fed. Chairman Paul Volcker made recommendations on reforming the U.S. financial system
http://tinyurl.com/atqkvg

As Bill eluded to this morning, today was really historic for not just financial regulation. today was the 1st step to an equal playing field. its going to be a long and painful road.

NYUGrad
NYUGrad
February 5, 2009 5:53 am

Play off the title of Public Enemy song title “911 is a joke” I missed this particular lashing today as i was in a conf call. but wow! wow! http://tinyurl.com/aqo2mg http://tinyurl.com/bq5aqm (“Your Value to the American People Is Worthless.”) Markopolos has vowed to return tomorrow and report the next “mini” Madoff. I would be surprised if the SEC still exists in its current form by Independence Day. Now i know why Bill wants us to ship gold bars to him in the Bahamas. this is a mess all the way down to the roots. EDIT: They claimed “Executive privilege” without… Read more »

NYUGrad
NYUGrad
February 5, 2009 4:02 am

For me he risk reward is not there. this includes fas, skf, etc.

with the bad/good bank plans, and pending news of whatever is coming next week on financial regulation, there is too much unknown.

Only thing i would even look at is precious metals. but thats just me.

For all i know, next week companies like citi may no longer be public, or be given a free pass and have no bad assets.

there is a report on Reuters about wachovia and ubs merging too.
http://tinyurl.com/dfg8vh

Mark Barry
Mark Barry
Reply to  NYUGrad
February 5, 2009 4:47 am

NYU-Agreed. I covered all of my shorts in BAC,C,COF recently. Wouldn’t all of these companies already be gone if it weren’t for the hope of some government intervention? Short of knowing what that might be, I see no reason to trade either side. Isn’t it interesting that the fate of these companies is almost an after thought now. I remember when C was @ $3 on a Sunday night and all the news was what would happen at the open on Monday. Now BAC is at 4+ and the news is the earnings for V and CSCO. Any chance we… Read more »

2nd_ave
2nd_ave
Reply to  Mark Barry
February 5, 2009 11:54 am

Mark- I don’t think so much in terms of BAC/C/WFC going down…the real problem is transparency…the entire crisis reminds me of someone ——- up and trying to hide the screw-up using lie after lie, until the cover-ups spawn something even worse… if my kids were to get into serious trouble, i would encourage them to just come clean and we would handle the consequences step by step, as there is always some resolution that is ‘the right thing to do.’ the banks aren’t doing the right thing. they can’t get around cleaning up the balance sheets. why not let the… Read more »

Mark Barry
Mark Barry
Reply to  2nd_ave
February 6, 2009 1:22 am

2nd-Thanks. In construction the worst possible thing is to bury mistakes. I tell my guys the same thing ever day…Jut let me know the problem and we will fix it and move forward. You must have loved BAC today, 775M shares traded, High 5.15(+9.57%), low 3.77(-18.60%). And UCO gives me nightmares!

swissrobinson
swissrobinson
Reply to  2nd_ave
February 5, 2009 12:52 pm

>until then, the only ‘reasonable’ trade (IMO) is to take advantage of the volatility…i continue to trade back and forth in the ETFs, as well as a few individual names (GS worked well yesterday)…

So what’s your average holding time 2nd?

Are you spreading risk or concentrating your resources on the stocks you see getting hit hardest?

Excuse me if I’m nosy. Will be back in the game in 30 days. Between Bill’s book, which I’m reading now and some understanding of others trading strategies I’m looking to have a plan ready.

2nd_ave
2nd_ave
Reply to  swissrobinson
February 5, 2009 1:39 pm

swissrobinson- i have a few ‘core’ positions in financials, but my average holding times are intraday…i probably make 10-15 trades a day, but i don’t want to splatter trade comments all over the blog…

NYUGrad
NYUGrad
Reply to  Mark Barry
February 5, 2009 4:52 am

whatever they decide, i am pretty sure the move will be the wrong moves by the administration. i am still positive on Obama, and i think he is about to have his 1st true “Aha” moment in office. when he realizes all his enemies are right there next to him wiping his butt. if i were him, i would be reading and dissecting the 700 page stimulus on my own. then i would attend the congressional hearings that already started today on madoff. then i would hire Harry Markopolos to lead the charge. then put madoff on trial, and after… Read more »

Finger Lakes
Finger Lakes
Reply to  NYUGrad
February 5, 2009 4:14 am

Really, with the tension building about the stabilization plan we could easily have a huge move in either direction next week.

Didn’t Wells Fargo already buy Wachovia?

I guess no deal is done until it’s done.

Whatever happens next week it better be good for SLW!!

Rob.

NYUGrad
NYUGrad
Reply to  Finger Lakes
February 5, 2009 4:26 am

Rob, UBS/Wachovia… not wells fargo.

I hope SLW does well for you too. i am still on the fence. talk me into the position 🙂

Chickenpookie
Chickenpookie
February 5, 2009 3:08 am

I hope everyone’s got their TBT, TLT put, gold, or whatever, looks like there’s going to be a treasury blizzard coming our way…

http://treasury.gov/press/releases/tg10.htm

Christmas in July?

dberryclan
dberryclan
Reply to  Chickenpookie
February 5, 2009 3:22 am

CP,

agreed, a blizzard is on the way!!!!!

Let it snow let it snow let it snow!!

FranSix
FranSix
Reply to  Chickenpookie
February 5, 2009 3:16 am

(warning: Trailer Park Boys)

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Pvm-n6gwPCY&feature

Mark Barry
Mark Barry
Reply to  Chickenpookie
February 5, 2009 3:10 am

Good to see you again CP. Boy, I hope so..Sold V on the news today, added to TBT, PXP, CLB today. Added to GG, SQM a couple of days ago. Got out of UCO at even. Man you all have guts to hold that play. Mine kept me up at night.
Had a good conversation with a Studio exc. yesterday and they are cutting back on the new releases they produce in Blu-Ray. Straight cost savings but I think they are shooting themselves in the foot with this. After hearing that I was not at all surprised by DIS earnings.

Chickenpookie
Chickenpookie
Reply to  Mark Barry
February 5, 2009 3:51 am

Mark – USO isn’t a 2x/ultra, no decay…. Oil production will eventually shut down at these prices, it’s only a matter of time.

Treasury to introduce a 7-year note, it’s official!

http://treasury.gov/press/releases/tg09.htm

A Fallen Angel, or Santa and his elves?

http://treasury.gov/press/releases/images/hires/20

Mackinaw
Mackinaw
February 5, 2009 2:27 am

Trudging through the snow, on my way to work this morning, it struck me that a lot of people will be replacing weather-beaten, salt-damaged, ambulatory aids when this cold-snap retreats, this spring. Myself, I have my 2 pairs of black and brown work-shoes that are a mess. Does anyone have an opinion on a candidate investment here?

http://finance.google.com/finance?catid=62644846

vanillabean
vanillabean
Reply to  Mackinaw
February 5, 2009 2:33 am

I would go with the crocs. It is global and you can order online –

Mackinaw
Mackinaw
February 5, 2009 1:49 am

I apologize if anyone else has been discussing the US$ today – I haven’t had time to read all comments from today , yet. Here’s the problem: So key, to many of the investment decisions we have to make, is the strength of the US$. For example, we’ve heard Bill, and discussed the matter, that a major US Stock market rally might begin on signs of US$ weakness; one reason being a return to risk “psychology”, I guess. As another example, Gold – inversely correlated, historically, with US$ – and it’s association with FIAT inflation, and all the market consequences… Read more »

vanillabean
vanillabean
Reply to  Mackinaw
February 5, 2009 2:11 am

Ugh, currency effects drive me bonkers and freeze me like a deer in the headlights …

Mackinaw, these are crazy times and we all are searching for some truth in the chaos. Your description is like poetry —

I think the solution is a global system combining currency, bank and law.

(*Obama has alot on his plate)

vb

Vadym Graifer
Vadym Graifer
Reply to  Mackinaw
February 5, 2009 1:55 am

“As a nod to Vadym, I’ve kept the random spray of multicolored lines, “pointing in all directions”, to a minimum.”

Hey, I appreciate the sentiment! Any chart elements I can count with fingers on one hand are fine with me 🙂

Chickenpookie
Chickenpookie
February 5, 2009 1:45 am

For 2008 EOY: http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.t12.htm

U3 – 7.2%
U6 – 13.5%

http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.t12.htm

The Employment Situation for January 2009 is scheduled to be released on Friday, Feb-
February 6, at 8:30 A.M. (EST).

fireworks
fireworks
February 5, 2009 1:14 am

As most of you know, Obama’s new nominee for SEC chief is Mary Shapiro and good ol Mary just happens to be the past CEO of FINRA (Financial Industry Regulatory Authority). So what did Harry Markopolos have to say to Congress today about FINRA…

Markopolos also had harsh words for the broker-dealer watchdog and its predecessor, the NASD. “FINRA is even less competent than the SEC,” he said, calling the self-regulator corrupt and beholden to industry.

http://tinyurl.com/d8bueo

David
David
February 5, 2009 12:07 am

to $14.5, as ACI does not seem to like to stay below $15 for long. Commodities are holding up very well during the current market weakness, and I think they will rocket when the pendulum swings and the market moves up for a week or two.

teamonfuego
teamonfuego
Reply to  David
February 5, 2009 12:25 am

David – what have you read / seen that makes you so sure of the market moving up for the next week or two?

David
David
Reply to  teamonfuego
February 5, 2009 12:38 am

teamonfuego, I did not say that the market will move up for the next week or two. I said *when* the market moves up for a week or two (creating a short-term rally), commodities should rise strongly, IMO. I don’t think the market is ready to collapse now, so I think S&P 500 will break the 800-850 range to the upside rather than the downside (and I don’t know when it will happen). I decided to cancel my buy limit order on ACI at $14.50 and instead prepare the cash for deployment into UCO on Friday (so as to catch… Read more »

teamonfuego
teamonfuego
Reply to  David
February 5, 2009 2:03 am

aha. gotcha.

photogray
photogray
Reply to  teamonfuego
February 5, 2009 5:22 am

re ACI. Jason Leavitt of Leavitt brothers has ACI on his subscription only short list
Just FYI
peace

mrking
mrking
February 5, 2009 12:04 am

You may have problems with Service Pack #5. I had similar problems. Also, check your memory usage, a software program you use may be corrupted. I am no pc guru, just sharing my experience. Service Pack #5 may be your problem.

MK

jrinbc
jrinbc
February 5, 2009 12:02 am

For those interested in capitulation trades, it might be worth watching MEOH (MX on the TSX).
Similar pattern to TXT but different industry (ethanol).
No position.

bsi87
bsi87
Reply to  jrinbc
February 5, 2009 1:10 pm

Max pain for Feb/Mar for MEOH is 7.50. I like to see at least a 1.5x the current price and preferably 2x.

TXT hasn’t capitulated (yet) but I’m watcing.

GL.

vinod
vinod
February 4, 2009 11:32 pm

Fortune’s Loomis: Warren Buffett Metric Signals It’s “Time to Buy” Stocks Posted By: Alex Crippen Fortune Magazine’s Carol Loomis, a journalist with especially strong ties to Warren Buffett, writes that a metric favored by the Omaha billionaire is now signaling it’s time to buy stocks. In today’s Fortune Investor Daily on the magazine’s web site, Loomis and Doris Burke point to an 85-year chart showing the the total market value of U.S. stocks as a percent of Gross National Product, a measure of economic output. The idea is “there should be a rational relationship” between the two measures. In a… Read more »

yvrapx
yvrapx
February 4, 2009 10:40 pm
David
David
February 4, 2009 9:55 pm

at $9. Accumulating it before the next week’s rally.

EDC
EDC
February 4, 2009 9:51 pm

Can’t have inflation unless people are willing to sign and banks are willing to issue promissary notes. Fed can print, print, print, print and nada no inflation; at least not for a long long time my friends. Believe that. Over 40% of world wealth or fallacy wealth has been vaporized and guess what, much much more to come. There is no doomsday talk about that statement. A majority of the debt created over the past decade was through ABS and other instruments or derrivatives. That market is gone and is not coming back. The world caught on to the scam.… Read more »

tango6
tango6
February 4, 2009 9:41 pm

as I recall four of six indicators say we’re NOT past a bottom.

bsi87
bsi87
February 4, 2009 8:58 pm

sell limit 9.02 (close + 10 day ATR)

or sell trailing stop (1/3 10 day ATR) 66 cents.

Find 3 day cycle in these. 3 day sell off, then 3 day rally. I try not to outthink/outguess top/bottom.

bsi87
bsi87
February 4, 2009 8:55 pm

RSI 7 day = 12.80.

No position.

photogray
photogray
February 4, 2009 8:47 pm

Took 1/2 off SLW =small profit
Bought UCO near lod.

What about SRS?

NYUGrad
NYUGrad
February 4, 2009 8:44 pm

still in cash position.

London
London
February 4, 2009 8:40 pm

into reports tonight and tomorrow morning.

on GNK profits;)

London
London
Reply to  London
February 4, 2009 9:45 pm

Enjoy again.. just use `London` 😉 Visa beats by $0.12, beats on revs (49.13 +0.74) Reports Q1 (Dec) earnings of $0.78 per share, $0.12 better than the First Call consensus of $0.66; revenues rose 16.8% year/year to $1.74 bln vs the $1.68 bln consensus. Visa’s operational performance highlights for the fiscal first quarter, as measured by business activity through September 30, 2008, include: Payments volume grew 12% over the prior year to $701 bln; total volume, inclusive of cash volume was $1.1 trln, an increase of 16% over the prior year; total cards carrying the visa brands rose 10% worldwide… Read more »