Cara's Commentary & Community Chat, Wed., Apr. 8, 2009

[7:25am ET] I have two insights into the minds of the leaders of Humungous Bank & Broker (HB&B) that I


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Chickenpookie
Chickenpookie
April 9, 2009 12:31 pm

Wow, what a difference a day makes, SKF -13%?

Les
Les
April 9, 2009 10:04 am

In my inbox: “Georgian opposition movements have planned mass protests for April 9, mostly in Tbilisi but also around the country. These protests could spell trouble for President Mikhail Saakashvili. The Western-leaning president has faced protests before, but this time the opposition is more consolidated than in the past. Furthermore, some members of the government are expected to join in the protests, and Russia has stepped up its efforts to oust Saakashvili.” There be oil involved in this: http://tinyurl.com/62wzmm Don’t know if Sth Ossetia – where the pipeline reportedly is – is still part of Georgia, or has been proxied… Read more »

Les
Les
April 9, 2009 9:28 am

Please leave this site the way it is.

I wanna know what the punters here are doing in real or slightly delayed time? I look for 2nd’s subject headings with no comments. If everyone follows similarly they’re easy to catch.

Got a longer stock/economic discussion? Mark it appropriately in the subject heading.

Got something else to say? Ditto. I don’t like the conversation, I scroll straight past.

Wanna destroy the collegiality of this site? Start splitting us up into different classes or force us to view multiple tabs.

It’s too easy to scroll…

Grym
Grym
Reply to  Les
April 9, 2009 11:41 am
davefairtex
davefairtex
April 9, 2009 6:13 am
NYUGrad
NYUGrad
April 9, 2009 5:11 am

My current stock lists i scan are Cara100, IBD100, and Precious metals. Will add Juniors soon. But IBD100 is also an excellent list you can get for cheap. either buy the Sat edition at your news stand for a couple bucks per week and manually enter them, or $19 per month to access articles and download the ibd100 off the web as excel file. the list comes out every friday after the close.

for those who are not familiar with “IBD”, it is Investors Business Daily.

Les
Les
Reply to  NYUGrad
April 9, 2009 9:44 am

I’ve got to get myself organised with a daily stock scan.

Thanks for the reminder.

NYUGrad – how are you storing these charts for daily scans? I see that stockcharts.com has a paid service which permits a chart saving portfolio.

Bestfreecharts.com looks like it can do something similar, but one cannot put them all on the same screen for quick comparison, from what I can see.

How do you do it?

teamonfuego
teamonfuego
April 9, 2009 4:35 am

by the way, i bought some GNW right before the close today for a spec trade.

Mark Barry
Mark Barry
Reply to  teamonfuego
April 9, 2009 4:57 am

TOF- If you like sepc. trades take at my post Re- FTWR.

nemo
nemo
April 9, 2009 4:09 am

Had a thought…There is a subject line in each entry, some are obvious replies to previous entries, thus threads. What if there were a series of check boxes next to the subject line when one initiates a comment. One box, is for “trading” one is for “fundamental analysis” one is for “macroeconomic analysis” one is “general”. Each could be color coded so that once the comment is posted, the subject matter checked off by the author will have a letter code tr=trading fa=fundamental analysis ma=macroeconomic analysis and g=general, and could potentially be color coded also. This code/color, could be posted… Read more »

2nd_ave
2nd_ave
April 9, 2009 3:59 am

going to sleep on that before it all falls apart…all the best tomorrow.

bobbyo
bobbyo
Reply to  2nd_ave
April 9, 2009 4:19 am

2nd. Ave,

What is it PST. 9:00 pm? And you are going to bed. The euro open is just a few hours away. That table might be red hot. I know the kiddies must of wore you out. What is the name of that Jethro Tull album? I don’t mean Thick as A Brick.

2nd_ave
2nd_ave
April 9, 2009 3:52 am
2nd_ave
2nd_ave
April 9, 2009 3:10 am

David
David
April 9, 2009 2:47 am

at $7.17 for the 1000 shares I purchased at $6.17.

NYUGrad
NYUGrad
April 9, 2009 2:44 am

there are tons on great looking setups. some breaking above 200 day ma. some where 50 day is converging on the 200, about to cross up. others trading sideways on decreasing volume, after a breakout, while staying above the 50 dma.

i hope the rally resumes for all of us. just worried about the teachings by Vadym; “the majority cannot win.”

Mark Barry
Mark Barry
Reply to  NYUGrad
April 9, 2009 2:54 am

NYU- Looks like your “shake out” theory is playing out for now.

Mark Barry
Mark Barry
April 9, 2009 2:25 am

I’ve owned this stock for a while now. It is up 300% over the last 30 days and up 65% today. Somethings cooking here besides a recent up grade to “strong buy” by Zacks and a 1M share position by Tudor Hedge Fund. Long term debit is an issue, but they are now field EBITA positive. Either the share holders or the bond holders will profit handsomely. Right now it is a race to the cliff. FD- Basis was @ 1.14, now at .53 after a large buy @ .14. I’ll make a few phone calls on this. If anyone… Read more »

Chickenpookie
Chickenpookie
Reply to  Mark Barry
April 9, 2009 4:00 am

Thanks Mark, I remember you mentioned this one some time ago. Couldn’t find any reasons for today’s performance, certainly has my attention though. On my watch list for the next few days for sure.

Mark Barry
Mark Barry
Reply to  Chickenpookie
April 9, 2009 4:06 am

CP- One greenpea just trying to contribute. BTW, I still think there is room in USD.

2nd_ave
2nd_ave
April 9, 2009 2:16 am
David
David
Reply to  2nd_ave
April 9, 2009 2:41 am

Now THAT is an indicator for tomorrow, since financials were basically flat today in the US and so China is not just repeating what happened in the US. So as of right now, it suggests a positive open tomorrow for XLF. But then, the US futures are positive right now as well, which, I still believe, encompasses ALL the relevant information at this point in time for predicting tomorrow’s open.

bobbyo
bobbyo
Reply to  David
April 9, 2009 2:56 am

David,
Wasn’t the Hang Seng Hammered yesterday by 4%. Is this move just playing catch up with US markets.

David
David
Reply to  bobbyo
April 9, 2009 3:59 am

bobbyo, the US market dropped a lot yesterday, and so last night it was natural to see Asian markets drop as well. Each US evening, the Asian shares open based on the way US markets closed on that day.

2nd_ave
2nd_ave
Reply to  bobbyo
April 9, 2009 3:05 am

I think David was referencing the financial sector only, which btw is now up 2.62% v 1.94% for the Hang Seng composite.

http://www.hsi.com.hk/HSI-Net/

Mark Barry
Mark Barry
Reply to  2nd_ave
April 9, 2009 3:14 am

2nd- So the real question here must be…Time to press the bet? I’m looking at these huge moves in companies that beat, and good moves in companies that miss, that the market has issues priced so low that if anything other than ” We are pleased to report that we are now bankrupt” is seen as a positive. I know that sounds reckless, and I wont trade that way, but damn.

2nd_ave
2nd_ave
Reply to  Mark Barry
April 9, 2009 3:21 am

Mark- I don’t know, but check out the point rise in Ping An Insurance, one of the components of the H-financials:

Code Constituent Name Contribution to Index Change
939 CCB +3.51
998 CITIC Bank +9.96
1398 ICBC +21.87
2318 Ping An +83.69
2328 PICC P & C -1.51
2628 China Life +34.72
3328 Bankcomm +51.98
3968 CM Bank +6.67
3988 Bank of China +44.39

9:58 p.m.
Ping An shares up despite 99% fall in 2008 net profit

9:58 p.m.
Ping An Insurance shares climb 2% in Shanghai trading

Mark Barry
Mark Barry
Reply to  2nd_ave
April 9, 2009 3:35 am

2nd- Add to the list for companies that have reported…EMR couldn’t have been more cautionary in their guidance…Result/Flat. I’ll look to WDFC tomorrow as a tell. Bad miss, 50% on revenue. AH -10%…But so was MOS until the real traders stepped in the next day.

2nd_ave
2nd_ave
Reply to  David
April 9, 2009 2:55 am

David- Apart from Hang Seng H-financials, noticing other (small) signs of financials coming to life in Asia:

http://tinyurl.com/dzzg62

Insurance and electronics stocks were leading the rally in Japan, with Tokio Marine up 3.2%, Mitsui Sumitomo Insurance up 3.2% and Sony up 3.5%. Sharp was up 5.4%, having fallen 6.1% Wednesday after it cut its earnings outlook.

Financials and builders were gaining in Korea with KB Financial up 2.6%, Daewoo Securities 3.2% higher and Hyundai Engineering up 1.1%.”

vanillabean
vanillabean
April 9, 2009 2:15 am

How about this? Identify each user’s skill level as greenpea – level 1, mediocre- level 2 or expert – level 3. Allow readers the option to view all posts from level 1, level 2 or level 3. Hopefully, you would end up with 3 different level trade groups. All levels would be on one thread discussing trades, news, social like it is now. The newbies and lurkers might feel more inclined to participate if they knew they were conversing with people on their same level. Experts on the other hand, could hide newbie comments and read just the expert comments… Read more »

Mark Barry
Mark Barry
Reply to  vanillabean
April 9, 2009 3:47 am

VB- I love it! I’ll proudly put myself in the “greenpea” group. But wouldn’t Bill and Vad get lonely in the expert group?

teamonfuego
teamonfuego
Reply to  Mark Barry
April 9, 2009 4:32 am

Mark – did you see the action in MOS today? I almost bought the April $45 calls today as a complete gamble right at the open because I told myself that if it opens above $40 its going to close green. Sure enough…that would have been quite a trade. Up 4 to 5 fold at one point from the lows at the open!

WOW.

Mark Barry
Mark Barry
Reply to  teamonfuego
April 9, 2009 4:39 am

TOF- Yep, and yesterday afternoon. Sat on my hands the whole time. That’s one of the few times I haven’t pulled the trigger on a set-up. Look back in the blog, I posted some info on SQM for you. I did add to SQM yesterday AH for a 7% gain today. Still learning, listening…

Mackinaw
Mackinaw
April 9, 2009 2:11 am

Dave M and Quasi posted some really great charts in response to a “Bullish Chart” challenge last night; thanks. Dave’s S&P since 1870 was especially interesting so I have reattached it here. The things I appreciate from it are that 1) we had a huge Bull run from 1982-2000. In fact the largest Bull Run in history (+666%, inflation adjusted) and 2) that when the markets turn down towards the long-term trend line, they overshoot to the downside (except the pre-Fed 1870-1915 period). That’s what has me worried. Are we going to overshoot on the downside? Should I be stocking… Read more »

radix023
radix023
April 9, 2009 1:56 am

These issues have occurred before: in the original Usenet newsgroups. One of the most effective ways of dealing with this sort of topic fragmentation is to provide a ‘threaded view’, which shows you messages grouped by/from original post with new subject and then followed by the replies. I propose that you provide that as an option so that people who prefer the date listing as it is today can follow the stream and people who wish to ignore side discussions can use the threaded view and simply not expand those threads and follow those subject-reply chains. (there’s a Wikipedia article… Read more »

casey
casey
Reply to  radix023
April 9, 2009 2:55 am

radix023 : I agree a threaded view is very efficient and doesn’t lose people to side forums. I like the threaded view option myself since it keeps the group together and it also naturally collating the side chats

2nd_ave
2nd_ave
April 9, 2009 1:51 am
Mackinaw
Mackinaw
April 9, 2009 1:20 am

I was getting a bit anxious late last week and early this week with the potential topping action in markets after this March 9-present rally, but digging deeper, I’m starting to spot some real breakouts occuring by leaders. Even on a 5 year chart, this one, for e.g., is looking bullish to my inexperienced eyes:

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/cbuilder?ticker1=SEN

Mark Barry
Mark Barry
Reply to  Mackinaw
April 9, 2009 1:34 am

Mac- All I see there is a EKG, but you have to respect the action of MOS and AA today, no?
I was hoping to use a pull back in MOS as an entry point, but the darn thing went down 11% to up 6% in 1 1/2 trading days.

Mackinaw
Mackinaw
Reply to  Mark Barry
April 9, 2009 1:43 am

Mark,

I take it from your comment, that you, like me, are not able to day-trade very often. The beauty of this Bear is that there’s so much more room on the upside than on the down side. And even if the downside extends, that only increases the range of the upside. Really, has there been a better opportunity in markets like today than since, say, the late 1970’s?

Mark Barry
Mark Barry
Reply to  Mackinaw
April 9, 2009 2:11 am

Mac,

Luckily I live on the west coast, so I can always trade the first hour or so and AH, but that is about it. I’m new to this, but have been keeping my ears open and am liking what I hear.

2nd_ave
2nd_ave
Reply to  Mackinaw
April 9, 2009 1:44 am

Mac- I couldn’t agree more.

2nd_ave
2nd_ave
April 9, 2009 12:58 am

TOKYO (NQN)–Japan’s core machinery orders climbed by a seasonally adjusted 1.4% from January to hit 728.1 billion yen in February, the first rise in five months, according to data released Thursday by the Cabinet Office.

-from Nikkei.com

Mark Barry
Mark Barry
April 9, 2009 12:47 am
FranSix
FranSix
April 8, 2009 11:56 pm

Discovered to my amazement that if you touch the top of any page in a screen, then that will redirect you to the top where you can easily reload.

proudPapa
proudPapa
Reply to  FranSix
April 9, 2009 4:15 am

I like to read on my ipod as well and one feature I would love to see is a link at top of page to scroll to bottom of the chat, cause its a pain scrolling down 200 messages…

FranSix
FranSix
Reply to  proudPapa
April 9, 2009 9:08 am

Just make sure when you come from the home page to click on ‘new’ so that every time that page is reloaded, you can simply skip to new messages. I find myself either switching from the home page to ‘new’ or to a suggested link in the chat and ‘back’ with brings me to new comments.

dr.cosa
dr.cosa
April 8, 2009 11:49 pm

i agree that separate threads would probally help organize the blog now that there is so much traffic.

a general trader forum for most idea’s based on the morning commentary to house most comments, while separate threads dedicated to say

TA,
jr. golds
investment 101 and/or cara-isms for the newbies
non-investment topics (conspiracy theory, politics etc)
specific events like CARA Bahamas conferences
pictures threads
blog rolls where people can rate and debate other blogs
Kaimu corner 😉

2nd_ave
2nd_ave
April 8, 2009 11:44 pm

…now at +115…it will be a volatile open

NYUGrad
NYUGrad
April 8, 2009 10:14 pm

Sorry if any stocks below were removed. I do not have the latest list.

BBY
IBM
SNDK
AMZN
KSS
BBBY
WFMI
TM
ORCL
DNA
CHA
ABV
CTSH
TTM
GG

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