[7:58am ET] If the White House believed that what the capital markets needed to recover was a full-out public relations exercise from Obama, Bernanke and Summers, as we saw yesterday afternoon, they were mistaken. After these leaders addressed the nation, the US equity market dropped over -1%.
On a day that started badly, and then got worse, not even extensive TV coverage of the A-Team was able to turn things around. Do you recall the Bush years after I started blogging five years ago when markets almost always got pumped when the President spoke. I used to say that it must be his network of Rangers hitting the Buy button because there was an amazing correlation between TV appearances and higher prices. Not so today.
On another front, I see that the Fiat CEO is demanding concessions from Chrysler
The Business Insider reports: The recent market rally that started on March 10th caught most equity quant fund managers by surprise, and it is turning out to be painful for the vast majority of them. This, in turn, may wind up bringing the stock market rally to a screeching halt. Barclay’s analyst Matthew Rothman wrote in a recent note to clients that he after talking to 80 quant fund managers, he discovered that only one was up since March 9th. The majority admitted to being down during the rally. “It is fair to say that just about everyone is bewildered… Read more »
Today’s focus will be on the US commercial real estate market. Yesterday’s rally into the close was, I believe, a trap. I have been watching the T-Bill yield collapse to 0.140 at the close yesterday, which told me that big money was being shifted into basically cash, which is usually done to avoid a significant downdraft in the equity market. I believe that advance news of the General Growth Properties chapter 11 filing leaked into the market and certain vested interests front-ran the news to the public by moving to cash while hyping the broad market advance. Call me a… Read more »
More scary and the not mentioned part is that the Banks (Gov’t) may be hiding some foreclosures or at least not reporting the numbers so as not spook the Real Estate markets even more than they already are. No one knows what is lurking in “the shadows” or being suppressed .
ALOHA !! A look at the US TREASURY DAILY STATEMENT for April 14th, 2009 shows that the total of all Federal Tax Deposits from all tax sources including corporate, excise, estate and individuals and payroll is LESS THAN the total two mystery line items listed as OTHER and UNCLASSIFIED. Total tax deposits for 2009 so far are $1.109TRIL USD and total for the two mystery line items is $1.445TRIL USD! Look at the DEBT ISSUES … by far the majority of DEPOSITS into the Federal Reserve Account, so by all intents and purposes this country runs on nothing but DEBT… Read more »
ALOHA !! So far NO CLASS … No CLASS ACTION lawsuits! But here is one that is against Wells Fargo that may open a floodgate if successful. I can’t imagine a trustworthy US BANK like WELLS FARGO with Daddy Warren on the Board stooping to this sort of PUMP AND DUMP! From the law firm of Hagens Berman Sobol Shapiro LLC based in Seattle, WA. READ ON: Class Action Says Wells Fargo, Rels Illegally Strong-arm Appraisers April 14, 2009 SEATTLE – Today two real-estate appraisers filed a proposed class-action lawsuit against Wells Fargo (NYSE: WFC) and Rels Valuation, an appraisal… Read more »
ALOHA !! I have mentioned here before I pulled out of all annuities in 2007/2008 and poured those funds into gold/silver. Afterward I heard words like “GATING” being bantered about. Gating is limiting redemptions by eliminating lump sum distributions. Like a gate that lets out only a few dollars at a time … until there’s nothing left to let out! Link: http://tinyurl.com/dck8u2 Now I read this and I see LINCOLN is looking dire, but more than any Prudential looks like hell. Look how much of Prudential(PRU) is locked up in high risk assets as a percentage of shareholders equity …… Read more »
ALOHA!! Back from TEA PARTY HILO!! Held on BAY FRONT, the main street that goes through town along Hilo Bay. I’d say around 300 people turned out which is sizable for Hilo. About 80% of cars passing by honked their horns and shouted their support. I met a number of people from other areas other than Hilo and even one contractor from Santa Rosa, California. We talked about three phase electrical systems and public works and unions! HA!!! I also had a good talk with John Kai of Pinnacle Investments. He has a local Wall Street radio show. We talked… Read more »
For those of you who follow Mr. Mortgage this is not news, but it made Bloomberg just today. It was on the “breaking news” section for a time, but then it got moved back to the “Real Estate” section to be replaced by “Global Confidence at 11-Month High as Credit Thaws”. No I’m not making this up.
http://tinyurl.com/dkp47g
April 16 (Bloomberg) — U.S. foreclosure filings rose to a record in the first quarter as employers cut jobs in the recession and temporary programs to delay action on defaults came to an end, RealtyTrac Inc. said.
FD: Long SRS
Interesting break up through a declining trendline on increasing volume. Higher highs, higher lows. Seems bullish for Canadian dollar.
FD: long FXC
http://tinyurl.com/cxs59v
GMKT closed at 19.96
at $1.2B, good to see cash is being put to use toward growth.
http://tinyurl.com/dd8cu9
For posting your trades and thoughts here. No snark intended but – do you ever lose money on a trade?
It seems that even when you sleep in your instincts pull in the long green.
Corner Stone, I tend to hold onto losing positions and even add to them, trying to trade my way out of them. So in this strategy, 95% of my trades will be winning trades, but the remaining 5% will give me huge losses. I am learning to be just as flexible as 2nd_ave and other good traders on this site and avoid being stubborn in my assessments of how good each position is. But as I have realized, being able to change one’s mind on a dime is a mark of a great trader and it takes time to learn… Read more »
I like sharks comment “Remember SWC?”. I remember it every time i see my portfolio!!. Its still like -50% along with that other dog WGW. Yes, they were LONG.
Id like to get an opinion here, are either of these worth holding onto or shall i ditch them and get into this KGC thing the entire comunity appears to be riding on?.
I want my porfolio to break even on 2008 before Bills mentioned potential 7 month lull and down turn.
Selling TCK today, its been the sweetest these past 5 weeks.
Bill, Has your community in Canada wondered why executives and experts committing securities fraud rarely go to jail? (1) Watch the video entitled ” Securities Crime Unit ” at: http://www.ismymoneysafe.org/ You will need to have QuickTime Movie Player installed. You can download it free at: http://www.apple.com/quicktime/download/ Canada’s integration of securities crime policing with securities regulation means very few securities crime prosecutions get done. We need urgent reform of Canada’s securities crime policing system. This video provides the Securities Crime Unit solution developed by the respected and recently retired Detective Sergeant of the Toronto Police Services Fraud Squad, Gary Logan. Gary… Read more »
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Speaking of emerging economies GDP growth, we have to keep in mind that even though positive it may not be enough to absorb all labor coming to the work force.
For instance, India I think is forecasting around 7% GDP growth while it’s generally accepted that 10% is necessary to create work for the stream of incoming workers.
CP- Agreed, I see it as a negative.
I see it as a shade of gray without knowledge of the expectation.
The futures seem to have made a statement. DOW down 28 after being up 45. Let’s see how the Nikkei opens after lunch.
Filling in for 2nd while he scours Obama’s return.
Nikkei was up, but is now down about 20 to 8720 at 1:49ET. Will be interesting to see where it closes.
http://market-ticker.denninger.net/uploads/DSC0403…
“The stock market was quite set up for a fall when late in the afternoon the patriots tossed the bears into Boston Harbor. Bear Market protest? Sympathy with the tea-throwers?'”
ALOHA !! ASX UP some 45 points … SLR While I did ask during my presentation if any of the attendees was from the IRS or the US FED or the CIA I neglected to ask if anyone was from SPROTT ASSETS. Well, it seems someone from SPROTT ASSETS is either reading this blog or they sent a rep to the CTAB CONFERENCE 2009. Low and behold, but look who slinked into the SLR mix today(April 16th for those in OZ)!! Buying some 12mil shares(7.8%) SPROTT ASSET MANAGEMENT is now a substantial shareholder of SLR-Silver Lakes. Get ready for some… Read more »
I thought Sprott was a perma-bear?
http://media.mcclatchydc.com/smedia/2009/04/15/17/…
Here is the Obama tax return. Experts need to examine it and report on it.
Then we need to do the same for Henry Paulson and the key people in the current Administration, in Congress, and the Fed.
These people are in public service and they are the people in power, so we need to know everything about them.
Let’s get behind this project.
What’s interesting about this tax return can’t be found in the return itself. What’s interesting about the return is that Obama, then a nobody from nowhere basically gets the nod from Oprah and gets a couple of million advance money from a publisher. It feels as stagecrafted as Clinton’s reign but with the publishing rights secured in advance.
Little known fact…Hitler made damn good money selling Mein Kampf even prior to becoming chancellor in ’33.
Very clean Schedule D 😉
Doing a little 2nd style introspection, I’m starting to doubt my bearish bias having missed most of this recent move, and I have a few, very small short positions (srs, fxp) that I feel like bailing out on. Transposing that to the broader market, i.e. if others feel the same, then there may be a lot of people about to become bag holders.
Of course only time will tell, and the market can stay irrational longer, yada yada…
proudPapa- I wouldn’t underestimate the value of getting into the heads of other traders. There are insights you can’t get any other way. If you get it right (and you can usually tell when you’ve hit the right angle), it gives you added conviction in your counter-trend trades. One of the simplest examples is spotting the guy/gal with the big smile/big wallet/purse at the table. I key in on them all the time. If/when they start losing, I start to watch closely. There’s a clear divergence- they start to lose the smile, but they try to hide it behind larger… Read more »
I’ll throw my doodles out there. Wedges all over the place. I see 875 as the heaviest resistance. My muddy ball sees it respected and at least a retest of the 50DMA, but in my heart I think it goes lower. So what will probably happen is it shoots to 940 first 🙂
4/15/09 “WASHINGTON (Dow Jones)–The U.S. Treasury Department again declined to name China as a currency manipulator, releasing a report Wednesday that maintains the Asian country hasn’t met the legal definition to warrant such a label and isn’t using its currency to gain unfair trade advantages.” “”We had been hopeful for a different finding,” said Thomas J. Gibson, president and chief executive of the American Iron and Steel Institute. He maintains China’s currency policies have hurt U.S. manufacturers and allows China an unfair trade advantage, a view shared by Alliance for American Manufacturing executive director Scott Paul. “During his confirmation hearings… Read more »
Lori,
Thank you for sharing your knowledge. I’ll check out the book you mention.
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i cant post charts at the moment but if you look at a chart of the GDX using 50/100/200 EMA’s youll see something i havent seen in a long time, 200 about to turn up, 100/50 looking to cross above the 200 or at least track sideways and current price action bumping up against the 200 hard. slow STO/RSI 7 and MACD all looking set to start moving back up. volume is a mixed back to me. very low on the recent action. but with this basing its difficult to say what this means. im feeling like its a possible… Read more »
“New legislation has been passed by the US government which will allow the Mint to produce palladium versions of Saint-Gaudens’ ultra-high-relief bullion coins.
In a bill introduced by Senator Max Baucus and passed on 1st April, palladium from the Stillwater Mine in Montana could now be used to manufacture the 0.995 fine one-ounce double eagle coins.”
Remember SWC?