Cara's Commentary & Community Chat, Tues., Apr. 7, 2009

[8:28am ET] Whenever there is a liquidity bubble and whenever there is a liquidity squeeze, ask yourself who is it that prints the money, and at times calls it back in. In the US, it isn


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Ron Sen
Ron Sen
April 8, 2009 10:22 am

http://ronsen.blogspot.com/2009/04/level-headed.html

Levels of lore so we’re a little less blind…

kaimu
kaimu
April 8, 2009 10:22 am

ALOHA !! LOOK!! DA PLANE !!! Here we have basically what I have been describing here to the PARTY FAITHFUL for some 25 years now! This is why I voted PEROT and RON PAUL … If you vote DEM and REP this is what you get! From Glenn Greenwald: “Rubin, Summers and Greenspan succeeded in inducing Congress — funded, of course, by these same financial firms — to enact legislation blocking the CFTC from regulating these derivative markets. More amazingly still, the CFTC, headed back then by Born, is now headed by Obama appointee Gary Gensler, a former Goldman Sachs… Read more »

Grym
Grym
Reply to  kaimu
April 8, 2009 12:01 pm
nemo
nemo
Reply to  kaimu
April 8, 2009 10:49 am
vinod
vinod
April 8, 2009 5:23 am
Shiva
Shiva
Reply to  vinod
April 8, 2009 5:36 am

makes sense, if 780 breaches 750 is the next level

David
David
Reply to  Shiva
April 8, 2009 6:56 am

Common, people… Have you EVER seen ANY trades security reach the level at which everyone wanted to buy it and then turn around? It either shot right through that level and went MUCH deeper that anyone had expected or it turned around without reaching that level. I think that it is unlikely that the next plunge to new lows started on Monday. Therefore, I think that S&P will turn around sooner than people expect (tomorrow we might see the lowest point in this pullback). Having said that, I *am* keeping my last stash of cash to deploy when S&P reaches… Read more »

vinod
vinod
April 8, 2009 5:17 am

CNBC’s Jim Cramer has another feud on his hands.
http://tinyurl.com/dzkgmg

kaimu
kaimu
Reply to  vinod
April 8, 2009 10:31 am

ALOHA !!

vinod … Whats new? Not only has CRAMER failed to predict bottoms but he was touting BEAR STEARNS as a BUY on Friday and it collapsed over the weekend!

There should be a counter CRAMER show called “MAD “REAL” MONEY”!! Where gold and silver and commodities are touted!

Or a TV SHOW where all the losers who bought all CRAMER’S … BOTTOMS and BUYS can mouth off to CRAMER and call the TV SHOW just … “MAD”!

In actuality I would not be too put off if both Roubini and Cramer just SHUT UP!

nemo
nemo
Reply to  kaimu
April 8, 2009 10:50 am

How about a show called “SANE MONEY” Which, of course, would be oxymoronic in a fiat regime.

davefairtex
davefairtex
April 8, 2009 4:01 am

The U.S. Treasury Department is planning to delay the release of any completed bank stress test results until after the first-quarter earnings season to avoid complicating stock market reaction, a source familiar with Treasury’s discussions said Tuesday. The Treasury is still talking about how results of the regulatory stress tests on the 19 largest U.S. banks will be released, and may disclose them as summary results that are not institution-specific, the source said. http://www.cnbc.com/id/30090718 So initially the goal was, raise confidence by increasing transparency and see where the bodies are buried. Now it would seem they are finding out that… Read more »

Dave M
Dave M
April 8, 2009 3:48 am

Interesting chart and trendline of the S&P Composite 1871 to present.

http://tinyurl.com/d6xss6

How Bear Markets End

http://tinyurl.com/d36c9u

The scary part is that the S&P is now trading about in-line with its long-term price trend after 15 years of trading above it. So even if we have put in the bear-market bottom, it is likely that the S&P will eventually trade below trend for a considerable period of time.

davefairtex
davefairtex
April 8, 2009 3:36 am

Meredith Whitney on BNN’s “The Close.” She is thinking short term possible rally on banks based on a one-quarter writeup due to M2M, but overall she still sees bank asset values declining based on home price drops. She talks about cost structures based on much larger activity levels, requiring large layoffs. Later on in the clip, she talks about the death of a thousand cuts, stemming from continuous revisions in bank “peak-to-trough” estimates: “In 4Q08 they [the banks] thought it would be 31%. Now, of course, it’s 37% already. So you get one more quarter of ‘special reserves.’ Then you… Read more »

loannetter
loannetter
Reply to  davefairtex
April 8, 2009 5:25 am

Aw comeon what’s a little predatory lending among friends? After these guys dump their stupidities–with their friends in higher places promising not to prosecute….what the hay? SUCKUP a few banksters for fun and profit?! I do hear a few hardy souls ARE preparing to go after certain lenders for the very things they said they didn’t do. News at 11. How about that tea party?

bigwad1
bigwad1
April 8, 2009 2:43 am

in this release???????? Please???? Who is the group of investors???? Can this be true???????? Is AIG getting 5 billion more Tax Payer dollars?????? Who determines this crap???????? What collateral is in this deal for the Tax Payers?????? How much is the proceeds?????? Did AIG receive funds from the Tax Payers, or the “federal government”????? Why does the Fed and AIG reps decline to comment??????? When will AIG pay back bailout funds?????? DOW JONES NEWSWIRES The Federal Reserve will extend a $5 billion line of credit to International Lease Finance Corp., American International Group Inc.’s (AIG) aircraft leasing unit, Bloomberg reported… Read more »

Mackinaw
Mackinaw
April 8, 2009 1:28 am

O.k, here’s the challenge: Post the most bullish chart you can right now, not for a single stock, but for a sector, country, major index, bond index, commodity price, etc., and it needs some upside.

Here’s mine – and it looks like an interesting entry point right now (if suppport holds):

http://tinyurl.com/c2bte

Quasi
Quasi
Reply to  Mackinaw
April 8, 2009 2:40 am

Mack & CP, both nice charts, how about copper?

http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.pnf?chart=$COPPER,PMTBDANRBO%5BPA%5D%5BD%5D%5BF1!3!!!1!20]&pref=G

edit: try this on, forgot this site does not like $ or ! in the URL’s
http://tinyurl.com/c3vmqb

Chickenpookie
Chickenpookie
Reply to  Quasi
April 8, 2009 3:04 am

Copper is good, I’m holding TCK for this but maybe PCU would be a bit safer since debt is such a show stopper these days. Itching to know which 4 Bill’s kicking from the hot tub….

Mackinaw
Mackinaw
Reply to  Quasi
April 8, 2009 2:50 am

ArG!!!! Darn, I forgot about the Copper turn. That is a majorly sweet chart, Quasi.

And CP caught this one right at the turn at the New Year – Platinum:

http://tinyurl.com/chzwl5

Quasi
Quasi
Reply to  Mackinaw
April 8, 2009 3:40 am

Mack and CP,

Just ran a Stockcharts scan for index charts with rising SMA’s in bull mode.

[symbol contains ‘$’]
and [SMA (10,close) > SMA (20,close)]
and [SMA (20,close) > SMA (30,close)]
and [SMA (30,close) > SMA (50,close)]
and [SMA (50,close) > SMA (100,close)]

Most of these charts look pretty good, they are plotted as 6 month charts with SMA 20, 50, 100. There are a few good areas to look at out there.

edit, oops I see we are focusing on P&F charts.

Quasi
Quasi
Reply to  Quasi
April 8, 2009 3:58 am

Mack and CP

OK here’s the same list of charts in the P&F format, its a big image so I reduced the quality a little to shrink the size, but its still pretty easy to scroll thru.

Chickenpookie
Chickenpookie
Reply to  Mackinaw
April 8, 2009 2:17 am

Nice looking chart, how about this one?

http://tinyurl.com/c8envh

casey
casey
April 8, 2009 1:26 am

On this blog we see one angle of the corruption in the finance field. In looking further around, for example, in the tech field, we find systematic raids upon the infrastructure that are used in communication.. FBI Raids: http://tinyurl.com/d7dx53 Raids that appear illegal and not only illegal but pointless technically, done socially used to further enrich corruption in the corporate world. (read the comments in the Wired story, they have additional telling insights to the raid) In copyright, we see whole countries, such as France and New Zealand as example implementing draconian internet restrictions: that will impact every person to… Read more »

Grym
Grym
Reply to  casey
April 8, 2009 11:33 am
nemo
nemo
Reply to  casey
April 8, 2009 10:48 am

Of course, Casey and I are cut, philosophically, from the same thread. The system is the system, and will always be the system. It will vacillate somewhat in a range (Ecclesiastes/YinYang), but it is what it always has been, as history teaches….meet the new boss, same as the old boss…

Mackinaw
Mackinaw
April 8, 2009 1:11 am

Only on BNN would you have an analyst on commodities who looks (and sounds) like Brittany Spears, decked out in evening wear, anxious to get off-stage for a late dinner engagement, making a whole lot ‘o sense:

http://watch.bnn.ca/#clip158856

FranSix
FranSix
Reply to  Mackinaw
April 8, 2009 4:46 am

How quaint that we should believe the prognostications of a young woman with all the charisma of an undertaker who can spout ad nauseaum exactly what the banks would like us to believe about China.

At the very least, China has deminished in our eyes as the saviour of western civilisation and our ideology of free markets based on cheap labour in foreign lands, to a communist country that has lots of money and buys stuff simply because.

GIVE IT UP. Its at least the umpteenth attempt at the defibrillation of the recently collapsed commodity bubble.

FranSix
FranSix
April 8, 2009 12:34 am

Nouriel Roubini, Eric Sprott:

http://watch.bnn.ca/the-close/april-2009/the-close

Meredith Whitney, Ian Gordon:

http://watch.bnn.ca/squeezeplay/april-2009/squeeze

And no screaming and yelling!

vinod
vinod
April 8, 2009 12:21 am

Market usually react positively near good Friday and also gives good feeling on ester it reminds all of us how important it is to cherish the time like ester

shark_attack
shark_attack
Reply to  vinod
April 8, 2009 12:30 am

Who’s ester?

2nd_ave
2nd_ave
April 8, 2009 12:18 am
FredC
FredC
April 7, 2009 11:03 pm
shark_attack
shark_attack
Reply to  FredC
April 8, 2009 12:33 am

/ / / /
/ / / /
/ / / /
/ / / /
/ / / /
/ / / /
/ / / /
/ / / /
/ / / /

A) A parade of witches

B) A Christmas tree farm

C) The way a shark looks when you’re standing just in front of it:)

2nd_ave
2nd_ave
Reply to  shark_attack
April 8, 2009 12:39 am

LOL. It’s probably a hand-out from one of Vad’s presentations? [The one with the ambiguous interpretation(s)]…

Vadym Graifer
Vadym Graifer
Reply to  2nd_ave
April 8, 2009 12:48 am

I start thinking you were secretly there

….

On second thought, no… if you were, you’d know that’s how I look after 5th Jack Daniels

Chickenpookie
Chickenpookie
Reply to  Vadym Graifer
April 8, 2009 1:43 am

that’s how I look after 5th Jack Daniels

An entire 5th? It wouldn’t matter what you look like by that point…

nemo
nemo
Reply to  Vadym Graifer
April 8, 2009 1:14 am

Yep…thanks to Vad, me and Jack reconciled (at least for one night) after a 30 year separation.

proudPapa
proudPapa
Reply to  nemo
April 8, 2009 2:22 am

hehe, that’s awesome nemo! I believe Jack was my first introduction to spirits, and you can imagine how that went. So yeah, it was about 15 years before we made amends.

2nd_ave
2nd_ave
Reply to  proudPapa
April 8, 2009 2:31 am

That’s the problem with Americans…I can’t remember if it was Johnny, Jimmy or Jack. I have to listen to that wholesome American rocker George Thorogood to get the names straight…at least I know Johnny’s cousins are Blackie and Red.

Craig
Craig
Reply to  2nd_ave
April 8, 2009 11:51 am

I remember clearly…..it was Jose. It was a looonnnnggg time before I partied with Jose again.

Chickenpookie
Chickenpookie
Reply to  2nd_ave
April 8, 2009 2:43 am

Just reach for the http://www.monkeyshoulder.com/

nemo
nemo
Reply to  Chickenpookie
April 8, 2009 10:58 am

nice music….

Vadym Graifer
Vadym Graifer
Reply to  nemo
April 8, 2009 1:22 am

That was pure self-defense on my part. You tried to pour Stoli in me, and I vaguely remembered that I had to speak in the morning, so diversion tactics were deployed.

2nd_ave
2nd_ave
Reply to  FredC
April 8, 2009 12:27 am

FredC- What happened to my ‘x’- it should be moved slightly (back) down the first incline 😉 (I’m estimating 940 for the S&P500 at the first peak.)

2nd_ave
2nd_ave
April 7, 2009 10:29 pm

Large number of line bets both before and after the come out roll, which has obviously succeeded. Point feels more like a 4 or 10, however. I don’t know that I would be stacking odds prior to tomorrow morning. JMO.

Mark Barry
Mark Barry
Reply to  2nd_ave
April 8, 2009 2:16 am

How come all of a sudden I think I’m the grape at the table?
Trading positions now…TNA@(avg.) 19.21, FAS @ 6.11, ROM @(avg) 24.01 USD@ (avg) 15.33.
Hey, at least I put myself out there for everyone’s amusement!

BTW, this grape has some pretty tough skin, so the press better be set high.

2nd_ave
2nd_ave
Reply to  Mark Barry
April 8, 2009 2:41 am

Come on, man. At least you play the game. You ALWAYS play the (fair) odds behind the line bet. But it takes time to read the crowd, and after-hours didn’t do it for me. No one stacks black and purple chips until a rhythm is established.

2nd_ave
2nd_ave
Reply to  2nd_ave
April 8, 2009 3:02 am

FD- I’m bullish as hell. But after getting played by the market last October, I’m determined to play every twist and turn/dip and rise (as best I can) on the path to higher portfolio values.

Mark Barry
Mark Barry
Reply to  2nd_ave
April 8, 2009 3:11 am

2nd- My FD, as you probably know. Pocketed all of my brown chips a couple of weeks ago. Yes, a little early. Now scattering some greens (seeds, love the analogy) around. Isn’t this whole set up a little too easy? Oh no, earnings are bad! Of course we have to pull back hard here. Who wouldn’t expect that??
Keeping some chips on the table focuses my attention, and pocket some winners along the way.
Biding time, waiting, watching…
Hope you are having fun with the kids. ENJOY!

2nd_ave
2nd_ave
Reply to  Mark Barry
April 8, 2009 3:14 am

Mark- Fair enough. Just having fun with the grape press 😉

Mark Barry
Mark Barry
Reply to  2nd_ave
April 8, 2009 3:22 am

Me too. Funny reality… I make a lot of homemade wine. When grapes are put in a press, say 50 lbs are pressed, we use a cork screw (leverage). We crank this baby down as hard as we can to get every drop. Once finished, we release the basket to get rid of the skins. You have to pull the block of skins apart to get rid of it. And lo and behold, there are always a lot of grapes in the middle that are totaly whole! It never ceases to amaze me.

Chickenpookie
Chickenpookie
Reply to  2nd_ave
April 8, 2009 3:19 am

grape press – Would that be the cousin of the thrashing machine or the sister of the vice?

Mark Barry
Mark Barry
Reply to  Chickenpookie
April 8, 2009 3:38 am

CP- A very SLOW vice. But I think I’ve got this played right for an opening hand. Expecting some more pressure tomorrow morning for those on the outer edge of the basket.

shark_attack
shark_attack
April 7, 2009 9:49 pm

I never hear anyone sugesting that the borrow-provisions related to short selling are onerous, which they are.

I contend that the ability to short or long with impugnity creates the “freest” market, as well as the market most reflective of the popular conception of value at any given time.

Chickenpookie
Chickenpookie
Reply to  shark_attack
April 7, 2009 10:57 pm

Government has probably reached critical mass. Unfortunately they aggravated the situation by sending too many jobs overseas while investing zip in infrastructure over the last 2 decades, not to mention they started two wars strictly for personal reasons. They don’t care we know about this because they have isolated themselves from the wrath of our slings and arrows. At least there’s an effort to address the healthcare crisis issue, but I can’t help believe this reflects back into the past and correlates with forces that ultimately culminated with the current demise (poor governmental decision making process). Poor, unemployed, and uneducated… Read more »

Vadym Graifer
Vadym Graifer
Reply to  shark_attack
April 7, 2009 10:08 pm

Upward bias surely exists at all levels which is understandable even though contradictive to the market’s nature. After all, it’s upward move that increases the value of investments, pensions, all kinds of funds, so it’s kind of hard to blame people who want the markets to go up. As for onerous character of borrow-provisions… I don’t know, I don’t see it this way. If you sell something you don’t own, you need to borrow it – what’s wrong with it? And, if you borrow it, you must be able to return it when it’s being claimed by its rightful owner.… Read more »

BillySundance
BillySundance
Reply to  Vadym Graifer
April 7, 2009 11:20 pm

Regarding naked short selling, one thing I have never understood is why short selling is allowed to exist outside of general market rules that provide transparency. Why is it that there is printed data of whom the largest fund shareholders are but not who is the largest short-seller? How come you have to make SEC filings when you have acquired a certain percentage of a company but not when you have shorted that same percentage of the company? Why is there no transparent market for the cost to borrow shares? If shares of a certain company are difficult to borrow… Read more »

NYUGrad
NYUGrad
April 7, 2009 9:44 pm

http://tinyurl.com/ceqa29

EDIT: I have not stepped foot in one for the past 12+ months. I typically check out Target and or Walmart for similar goods.

Corner Stone
Corner Stone
April 7, 2009 9:10 pm

Just felt like a planned shakeout for a move tomorrow.
I agree w/ Vad in that the uptick news is already out and people know all about it so it may be a nonevent. However, this market just seems to me to be looking for a reason to buck up a little. It may crater one day soon but right now it’s doing an impression of the Little Engine That Could. IMO

Seamus
Seamus
April 7, 2009 8:30 pm

earnings 58.8 mil, or 0.13 per diluted share; cash position 2.5 Bil

http://ca.sys-con.com/node/911681

After hours immediately traded down below close of 42.95, then bounced up over 43, now trending down, trade at 16:30 @ 41.94

David
David
April 7, 2009 8:28 pm

Given the shakeout right before the close, I think the chances of an up day tomorrow have increased.

Eagleone
Eagleone
Reply to  David
April 7, 2009 8:55 pm

David
I was watching SKF all afternoon and it had a very narrow range until the last ten minutes. It shot up $2 with 2 million shares. Looks like somebody is setting up for tomorrow.

SiO2
SiO2
Reply to  Eagleone
April 7, 2009 9:20 pm

Excellent point Eagle. During the last 15 minutes:

XLF: -1.7%
UYG: -3.5%
SKF: +2.3% (combined loss of 1.2%)
FAS: -4.3%
FAZ: +3.7% (combined loss of 1.4%)

Anyone caught with their pants down holding these things intra-day can suffer big losses too.

Pillzilla
Pillzilla
Reply to  David
April 7, 2009 8:36 pm

ditto

yvrapx
yvrapx
April 7, 2009 8:24 pm

Issueing stock overnight.

Milesquare
Milesquare
Reply to  yvrapx
April 7, 2009 10:12 pm

thanks for this

trading 10.55-10.65

http://www.etfconnect.com/select/fundpages/sectors

there goes 10% of the premium

I may swap my GLD/SLV if in narrows any more

alberio
alberio
Reply to  Milesquare
April 7, 2009 10:38 pm

Somebody mentioned a few days ago that when the premium gets to around 20% CEF has a habit of raising funds. I think it was around 17% when the post was made.

wealthed
wealthed
April 7, 2009 8:14 pm

Great post!! I look forward to reading more from you. I have added a link to your blog in the blogroll of my Fiancnail Advice website – http://www.wealth-ed.com could you please do the same? Thank you for your time and consideration!!!

-Brian M.

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