Cara's Commentary & Community Chat, Tue., Mar. 31, 2009

Bill is going to be late to the party today, so I’m opening up the usual articles now. Hopefully he’ll show up later. – Jeff


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Bull Hunter
Bull Hunter
April 1, 2009 12:01 pm

Good morning.

BA – Downgraded to Market Perform @ Wachovia.

Les
Les
April 1, 2009 10:41 am

From Colin Twiggs: “When the crisis broke this highly leveraged and unregulated shadow banking system had no protection. Its collapse caused a massive credit contraction which has so far cost the US taxpayer $3 trillion. (WSJ)” Congratulations, you’ve just spent the reportedly total sum of US involvement in World War Two. And this puppy isn’t anywhere near finished. Imagine all the factories you could have built with that money. Restructured your taxation system to retain global competitiveness, provided universal health care (heck even global health care), a national natgas network for a new generation of transport, every house built on… Read more »

aucourant
aucourant
April 1, 2009 9:51 am

Here’s a breakdown of 4 trillion spent so far as well as the total 12 trillion that is expected to be spent on the Keynesian economic rescue package. Aren’t you glad Keynes was right? (He was right, wasn’t he? I mean there’s no chance that he could have been wrong, is there? What if Fekete is right and all this money printing will lead to more deflation? Naw! Of course Keynes knew better than anybody. It’s not just a theory based on the false premise of equilibrium, a fiction devised to make the theory work. Oh no, it is “an… Read more »

Grym
Grym
Reply to  aucourant
April 1, 2009 11:39 am
johnuk
johnuk
April 1, 2009 9:08 am

Ambrose Evans-Prichard :-
“Chinese and Russian leaders both plan to open debate on an SDR-based reserve currency as an alternative to the US dollar at the G20 summit in London this week, although the world may not yet be ready for such a radical proposal”

heres the link
http://tinyurl.com/dlyc78

casey
casey
April 1, 2009 8:14 am

I was just writing an article about confidence

here is an interesting study showing how people act like lemmings

http://tinyurl.com/ctcf5d

when giving away their confidence.

photogray
photogray
April 1, 2009 5:37 am

I know its late. Alphatrends mentioned this site: bestfreecharts.com. I’ve been playing with it for a little while. I will load my holdings and see how it works in real time. Maybe it will help me to let go before its too late!
peace from North Puget Sound

NYUGrad
NYUGrad
Reply to  photogray
April 1, 2009 11:46 am

hi photgray,

any catches with free?

Fox1
Fox1
Reply to  NYUGrad
April 1, 2009 5:17 pm

NYUGrad

always the chart bug, I signed up, no charge. Look and feel of Worden’s StockFinder. Nice fib tools. Jump to new chart just by typing in new ticker.

Photogray

Thanks for the tip

Les
Les
Reply to  photogray
April 1, 2009 6:47 am

nice charts. thanks photogray

Shiva
Shiva
April 1, 2009 4:49 am

i have read a ton of material on techniques of trading but am yet to find one thats more of a primer/throws some wisdom on inter-relationship of different markets. For example stuff like Oil up, positive to drillers, negative to refineries. Baltic index up, good for commodity mfrs. Inflation up, better for gold & silver, grain prices up, good for agri equipments & fertilizers etc. I find that history repeats itself albeit a bit different each time and it would nice to know these broader trends to make some coin.

David
David
April 1, 2009 4:27 am

I decided to change my buy limit order on ERX at $19 into the sell short limit order on ERY at $43. My reasoning is that another 5% drop in XLE (which would be required for ERY to reach $43) would qualify as a sufficient pullback in the sector to start shorting ultra-shorts (it is much safer to open such short positions after significant pullbacks).

Mark Barry
Mark Barry
Reply to  David
April 1, 2009 4:36 am

David- I had lunch today with my oil guy and he is still bullish crude, but now VERY bearish NG. He say’s he wouldn’t be surprised to see a 3 handle soon. Be careful, most of the E&P guys that dominate both ERX and ERY drill for both.

David
David
Reply to  Mark Barry
April 1, 2009 5:29 am

Thanks for the heads up, Mark. I’ll start with a reasonably small short position, and hopefully this time I won’t allow it to consume all my buying power if it moves against me.

Shiva
Shiva
April 1, 2009 4:19 am

this might spur some demand for new cars

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/04/01/business/global/

teamonfuego
teamonfuego
April 1, 2009 2:59 am
Milesquare
Milesquare
Reply to  teamonfuego
April 1, 2009 3:05 am

this was interesting to know:

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/it?s=MBI

teamonfuego
teamonfuego
Reply to  Milesquare
April 1, 2009 3:11 am

thats quite a bit of insider buying huh?

Mark Barry
Mark Barry
Reply to  teamonfuego
April 1, 2009 3:21 am

2nd, TOF- I just sent X+3B an e-mail suggesting I might buy MBIA. Will let you know.

ssv
ssv
April 1, 2009 2:40 am

Hoping everyone is upto date on patches and security software

http://tinyurl.com/cb5hqf

2nd_ave
2nd_ave
April 1, 2009 2:38 am

I thought the 5-day chart pattern of MBI looked familiar. Superimposing a 5-day chart of FAS explains it all.

teamonfuego
teamonfuego
April 1, 2009 2:08 am
Mark Barry
Mark Barry
Reply to  teamonfuego
April 1, 2009 2:16 am

Just saw CFO for GM on NBR on PBS saying the same thing.

dr.cosa
dr.cosa
April 1, 2009 1:45 am

just posted 1 year chart of the USD… is it a sunrise or sunset?

http://jglobal.blogspot.com/

teamonfuego
teamonfuego
April 1, 2009 1:12 am

any idea why the futures are down so much?

Shiva
Shiva
Reply to  teamonfuego
April 1, 2009 1:14 am

teamonfuego – read my previous post, looks like Obama has decided bankruptcy is best for GM & Chrysler

teamonfuego
teamonfuego
Reply to  Shiva
April 1, 2009 1:35 am

aha. thanks. i still don’t understand why this is a negative…

2nd_ave
2nd_ave
Reply to  teamonfuego
April 1, 2009 1:42 am

DJIA futures have jumped from -103 to -52 in the past 20 minutes. Nikkei is now up 184. Probably just normal volatility.

teamonfuego
teamonfuego
Reply to  2nd_ave
April 1, 2009 1:58 am

well, i hope it does drop some…i’m looking to get into some financials as a speculative investment. i had a pretty rough day today…sold Goldman puts at 5.00 that i bought at average of $6.20. still holding on to FAZ at 21.3 in AH that i bought at 22.2. Sold ERX at 24.05 that i bought at $23.20. I’m thinking of taking some undue risk and buying in the money calls on XLF that expire in June/Sept. I think I would rather buy these than buy the FAS because of time decay… I’m also thinking of buying MBI as it… Read more »

2nd_ave
2nd_ave
Reply to  teamonfuego
April 1, 2009 2:33 am

I’ve been hoping for a drop to the (S&P500) 766 area as a re-entry point into the buy-and-hold.

Personally, I think we test DJIA 9000 sometime this summer.

MBI- I see Marty Whitman has a position (as of 2008) totaling over 17% of the outstanding shares, 28.8m shares in the LLC and 19.3m shares in TAVFX. There was a time I would not have bet against him.

teamonfuego
teamonfuego
Reply to  2nd_ave
April 1, 2009 2:38 am

2nd – i’m beginning to agree that the 9k test is coming up this summer too…possibly sooner.

i’m thinking about taking a big speculative chance on MBI…

2nd_ave
2nd_ave
Reply to  teamonfuego
April 1, 2009 2:41 am

“i’m thinking about taking a big speculative chance on MBI…”

Let me know if you do.

vinod
vinod
Reply to  2nd_ave
April 1, 2009 3:09 am

look like It’s going to be a restless night for the bulls
watch GS going to 50 in next few week?

teamonfuego
teamonfuego
Reply to  2nd_ave
April 1, 2009 2:54 am

will do. what do you think about it? i know they had a ton of mark to market issues with their insured securities, but i also remember reading a pretty detailed report from some hedge fund (don’t remember if they were heavily invested in it, in which case it was clearly biased) where it was calculated that the run-off value of the company was approximate $20/share. this was back in july if i can remember correctly. in the 9 months since july of last year, the stock has traded sideways despite a horrendous drop in the markets and numerous setbacks… Read more »

Shiva
Shiva
Reply to  teamonfuego
April 1, 2009 1:41 am

a) perhaps more CDS losses due to these bankruptcies b) maybe market is jittery who is next in line in the financial industry for some action from Uncle Sam

fireworks
fireworks
April 1, 2009 1:08 am

Time to get out of Dodge… On Friday, April 3, the Bail Out the People Movement, a growing coalition of hundreds of organizations and thousands of activists, will march on Wall Street and AIG. Protesters on April 3 will bring demands for a real jobs program, a moratorium on foreclosures, and other necessary programs for bailing out the people, not banks and Wall Street financial institutions. The growing anger over the AIG bonus bonanza, outrageous as it is, is really about the fact that trillions of dollars are being deployed to rescue the wealthiest on Wall Street, while the unemployment… Read more »

Mackinaw
Mackinaw
April 1, 2009 12:47 am

What am I reading here? Who thought up this mess?

http://www.cbc.ca/consumer/story/2009/03/31/ford-p

Quasi
Quasi
Reply to  Mackinaw
April 1, 2009 2:56 am

Sort of reminds me of back in the dot com bubble when I worked for Nortel. If customers couldn’t afford to buy your new product, which you needed to sell, then invent vendor financing. No problem we’ll loan the money to virtually bankrupt companies to buy our products, so we don’t go bankrupt. Then the downward cycle started and we know how it ended.

vinod
vinod
March 31, 2009 11:31 pm
NYUGrad
NYUGrad
March 31, 2009 11:15 pm

I want to thank the entire CTAB Team for all the hard work and planning that went into this inaugural event. It was great to meet such a diverse group of people who also shared the same interest in trading. I am confident that I have made some lifelong contacts and opened some new doors for myself this past weekend. If the 1st yr is any indication of what is to follow in 2010, I highly recommend more of you attend. You have many months to plan now, no more excuses. I set out to go to CTAB with 1… Read more »

2nd_ave
2nd_ave
March 31, 2009 11:13 pm

http://tinyurl.com/54qccl

Also looking for a pullback in crude.

Chickenpookie
Chickenpookie
March 31, 2009 10:53 pm
teamonfuego
teamonfuego
March 31, 2009 10:35 pm

Hey guys – Which company do you think would benefit most from a relaxation of MTM? What about ABK or MBI? Could be worth taking a flyer, no?

Chickenpookie
Chickenpookie
Reply to  teamonfuego
March 31, 2009 11:01 pm

“What about ABK or MBI? Could be worth taking a flyer, no?”

I was looking at ABK, but why not throw a few chips on both? I probably won’t but might jump in one of these for a few minutes… What I really need to see to make me happy is my longs out of the weeds.

Pillzilla
Pillzilla
March 31, 2009 8:15 pm

Jumped ship way to early on my TNA today as I share BSI87 market opinion. Seems toppy and close was ugly!

Loaded up TZA at pivot and double position after confirmation for some follow through tomorrow I hope. Leash will be be short.

Buy 100 shares TZA at Market Day 03/31/09 Filled

03/31/09 14:20 Filled 100 at 47.5774

Buy 100 shares TZA at Market Day 03/31/09 Filled

03/31/09 15:10 Filled 100 at 48.6

jack black
jack black
March 31, 2009 8:03 pm

This is a sleek presentation on the likely possibilities:
http://seekingalpha.com/article/128499-watch-out-f
I decided to keep FAZ/TZA overnight.

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