[7:45am ET] Last Friday, the Cara Decision Desk projected an Obama Rally. So that the facts are not distorted, I will repeat what I wrote:
[7:15am ET] The Obama Inauguration Rally starts this morning. Carnival American-style. Banks and Retailers, Energy and Basic Materials, Technology
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John – I can’t time. Actually, I have been and should continue to be on the sidelines on gold. But I happen to think 875 is a breakout point. This week’s candlestick chart, unless it changes, looks like a rare engulfing action, which is bullish.
Thanks Tango. I just looked at the FTSE compared to the DOW and the stoach/RSI are similar to late May 2008…as usual…for what it’s worth.
Bill’s 1/23 chat just posted
The VIX is still nervous, Asia sold off as expected overnight. Waiting for Bills daily if he has the time.
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/090123/earns_schlumberger….
we’ll see if the old saw “What everyone knows isn’t worth knowing” works out.
What is happing? Everything is down. Dow is down over 7% YTD.
This rate we will be down 84% by year end.
JMO. DJIA for example looks like it’ll trade between 7200 and 9000. Buying fear and selling greed when indicators max out looks like the method.
45 max pain for Feb. Not as much as I like but I don’t have much energy exposure and too much in the financials.
oops buy limit 36.30.
Triple RSI buy alert
Thanks bsi
kept a few shares but had an oversized position. Cost 63, out at 74.25. Missed the Obama panic.
http://tinyurl.com/apcsa3
Market internals aren’t ringing any bells…but it’s not all bad.
Is making it’s move…
Feels good to be on the right side of several trades already in 09. hope gold & prec metals becomes flight to safety play, finally. rather than just an inverse usd play.
I feel Gold is already becoming safe haven on trader’s mind. Gold is over 870 while USD is on its high this morning.
Just wonder when does miner catch up?
agree with the circling shark. If it drives through 875 today, I’m adding.
tago, what do you think? PM bulls out of the shoot at open, do the runup, fall back then start the real rally about noon to 1:30pm — I’m just guessing here!
Shark, i agree PMs are looking strong. I noticed the behavior starting a few weeks ago. But, I just don’t expect a rocket sled up, just a slow grind with the usual thrill rides interspersed.
I get a lot of streaming content from many sources. Is there a way to set that up here? Right now I have to re-load the page.
I use the chatroom: http://caracommunity.com/chatroom/chat/1
The formatting isn’t nearly as nice, but you don’t have to hit refresh. A nice feature on the main Community Chat is the “new” designation when you refresh. I leave the chatroom running on a Google Chrome tab continuously. Before I leave, I highlight some text so when I come back I can scroll up to where I left. It seems when people edit comments there are multiple copies of the posts which is distracting. Can’t have everything I guess!
Thanks Bob. I’ll give it a shot. I run Firefox on Mac. If I have trouble I hope you are kind enough to help again….Yes, I am not very good with computers. Thankfully I can build large/difficult homes very well.
You’re welcome and glad I could help. Just don’t ask me to help you cut a piece of expensive oak.
“Just don’t ask me to help you cut a piece of expensive oak.”
I hear ya, my old boss always used to have me cut the marble or granite panels for counter tops or walk in shower stalls, as he needed someone to blame if we had to buy a new panel. Never happened on my watch, although I did have to replace a 150 lb glass shower door, no help, had to hang it myself and ended up with a small chip the customer probably never would have seen, but I saw it and couldn’t live with that.
Quasi, sounds like you were smart enough to get out of the business. Somehow I’ve been lucky with my clients. On a side note from my previous comment about a client. He could pick up the phone and call any CEO in the banking business and not have to wait.
Mark Barry Nope not totally out of it yet. I’m a semi retired engineer but my hobby (part time business) was always residential renovations / restorations. That’s the part I still dabble in, too many people keep calling me wanting work done. Mostly restorations in 100+ year old houses, keeps me busy in my woodworking shop. These days very few have the patience to restore this stuff to the point where you don’t know it was restored and thats what I like to do, its all custom, every job is different. Of course then there is the other full time… Read more »
Quasi, sounds like you are in a good place. I hope to be out in 15 years. Please consider my previous comments. This is a man whom I have know for 15 years and have NEVER heard concern in his voice. I’m being very careful now, but looking to shift half of my $ to Bill. I’m just to busy to be on top of this. I got my BS in ME from UCSB.
Mark Barry, thanks I will consider your previous comments, I’m Long along the same lines, PM’s and also Oil and Gas. Also looking at alt energy, infrastructure plays and consulting engr firms. My background is Electrical, mostly power and telecommunications. Had fun and worked on major projects all over the world. My last stint (18 yrs) was with Nortel as a senior R&D engineer, it was very exciting thru the Dotcom error, but got hit in the 3rd round of downsizing after the bubble in 2001. Missed out on a pension by 8 months, they knew who would cost them… Read more »
Quasi, I’m happy for you. Sounds like in the end you got it right. I agree on the Power grid play…Long PWR, ABB. Both held up well today. Made some $ about a month ago with FLR. Starting to look good again. Your right though, the engineers will get the $ first.
FD.. Long GG, SLW, PXP, CLB, CREE, SQM, MON, PWR, ABB, NKE (new).
FD..Short BAC, COF, C.
Somebody, please take these javascript files out back and shoot them. 56,000 coding errors on a single page?? pllllease.
The only time I see javascript errors is when my ISP hiccups. Hitting refresh when the connection is made again brings everything back to normal. If yours is a different problem, please excuse this simple explanation.
http://tinyurl.com/bb4jnk
from Wikipedia: “Schapiro graduated from Franklin & Marshall College in 1977. In 1980 she earned a Juris Doctor (J.D.) degree from George Washington University.”
Got an interesting call today from one of my clients. He is worried about the preferred shares in 2 big banks and started large positions in 2 gold miners. This from the wealthiest man I know.
FD long GG
“If 2009 continues to be too volatile for certain investors but Gold and Silver should strengthen, does anyone have any thoughts on CEF (Central Fund Of Canada)?. It always looks stable even during large market corrections.” That’s correct. CEF has a ‘beta’ of only 0.22, which effectively translates into saying it’s buffered from market volatility to a great degree. In comparison, SLW has a beta of 2.55. Beta might best be illustrated by imagining the market taking steps as it moves. If the market moves a step up or down, then CEF would correspondingly move only 0.22 steps up or… Read more »
WSJ “U.S. Stance on the Yuan Gets Tougher”
http://tinyurl.com/ajzle6
So does this mean U.S would prefer a stronger Yuan and weaker usd?
If 2009 continues to be too volatile for certain investors but Gold and Silver should strengthen, does anyone have any thoughts on CEF (Central Fund Of Canada)?. It always looks stable even during large market corrections. I just wonder if I sit out the next few months (all this talk of the testing of the November lows) and park my balance on CEF. Anyone have experience or thoughts on CEF?
I own CEF as well. It generally owns gold and silver bullion weighted about 50/50 in each. The only thing you should be aware of is that it currently trades at a premium to NAV. If you go to their website they post the price vs NAV on a daily basis. The question/risk of course is when it might trade at a discount to NAV?
I also hold/have held CEF for quite a while. As to the question as to when it might trade at a discount to NAV, I don’t think I’ve ever seen it. I could be wrong and failed to notice the opportunity, but it seems to consistently trade in a 9%+ premium to NAV.
I like CEF. From what I understand about it, it gives you appropriate exposure to a fair price for gold. If I understood better where gold was heading – going forward – I would definately consider this vehicle. I suspect that using it for one’s 5%-20% allocation would meet with approval from the majority of this blog’s readership.
hi big brother caraisters. can any one tell me the dangers of selling puts far out for high premiums for quality stocks I wouldn’t mind owning. ie. sold aapl jan 2011 60 puts for 13 dollars. is this free money being the insurer of stocks with low likelihood of hitting the strike? or am I missing something?
let’s say you owned BAC in the summer of 2007 at 50…in january 2008 it spikes to the thirties, but you’re not worried; in fact, you pick up some more and your ‘basis’ is now in the forties…as it rallies to the mid-forties, you’re buying dinner for the pathetic colleagues who sold out in the mid-thirties (‘at the bottom’), in quiet celebration of your clearly superior buy-and-hold strategy…but then, uh-oh-> it drops to 20 in the summer of 2008…a few sleepless nights later: well, you’re not buying any more (a bounce is no longer certain, at least not anytime soon),… Read more »
I was waiting for DOW to hit 13000, and gave up. Then I wanted it to go up to 11000.
Finally I gave up and said to myself will settle for 10000.
Now I lost faith and will be happy if it gets to 9000. But dam thing is bouncing around 8000
and I feel like I am traveling for few years
LOL……. good one…..
You should remove the BAC and replace it with a [ ]
Then we can fill in our own version of BAC…
Can anyone say … “TCK”?
2nd, that guy is basically me…
That was fun to read. :))
I am personally somewhat scared about the prospect of the financials, and so I am personally going for the safe play of shorting FAZ, which should go down over time regardless of what happens to the financials (unless they are all nationalized over night and their shares all drop to 0 on the next morning).
“I am personally somewhat scared about the prospect of the financials.”
David- Glad to hear that…I can only imagine how LT holders feel.
http://online.barrons.com/article/SB12326567795220…
glad I have a longer ring finger.
http://www.economist.com/science/displaystory.cfm?…
bsi87 – Are you still holding SIL? I’m not sure what to make of this one…
yes, I got greedy and didn’t sell when I should have and they declared bankruptcy so I’ll get zip.
Yea, me too, shoulda sold… I’d like to get it of my port though, it just takes up space…
“There are two kinds of losses, Yamada explains: A loss of capital and a loss of opportunity; but there will always be another opportunity if you protect capital.”
I look forward to reading his quarterly letters like Christmas. And I have to read them about 3-4 times to soak in all the thoughts.
https://www.gmo.com/America/CMSAttachmentDownload….
Mack interviews Grantham, a little old, but still a good read. Consuelo Mack WealthTrack – November 21, 2008 CONSUELO MACK: This week on WealthTrack, a premiere event, a television exclusive with one of the wise men of investing. Money manager Jeremy Grantham, who first called the current financial crisis and stock market meltdown, will tell us what he sees ahead, next on Consuelo Mack WealthTrack. Hello and welcome to this edition of WealthTrack. I’m Consuelo Mack. To paraphrase revolutionary war patriot Thomas Paine: “These are the times that try men’s souls.” In this case, its not British rule, it is… Read more »
bsi87: the link you posted requires a password. If you get your hands onto Jeremy’s next quarterly letter, can you please post it on this blog? Thanks!
you can sign up for free.
Try this http://www.gmo.com/websitecontent/JGLetter_4Q08.pdf