[9:33am ET] In addition to the need to focus on the price and volume trading data, while ignoring the media reports involving politics and money, traders ought to consider the long-term impact on capital markets of (i) a world reserve currency, and (ii) new US securities regulations.
As I see it, the same people are in control of the US Presidency, Administration, Congress, the Fed and HB&B, the CIA and the mainstream media, so changes to come will serve the authorities and the insider networks ahead of the people. It will be a different type of business, perhaps, but business as usual.
Social equity will happen when the people make it happen. Social networks and underground economies will rapidly evolve as the most important tools and support systems of the people, replacing our reliance on governments and conventional systems that have failed us.
Not just capital markets and financial services, but life as we know it will change. President Obama believes he is the agent of that change. I respectfully disagree.
They’ll do what the drug cartels and dealers in the news do….buy hard assets like PM’s, diamonds, etc. When taxation, privacy and money laundering cross paths… What was Bernie Madoff sending to friends and family besides checks?
The “dark pools” are about to get deeper and darker.
This is chess. Government’s move….
It’s Darwinian.
After WW II, European wealth looked for ways to protect itself from confiscatory taxes ( which incidentally required the total invasion of an individual’s right to privacy) and the propensity of governments to destroy wealth by waging war. The simplest way was to move wealth away, to escape the clutches of rapacious governments.
Governments ground their teeth in anger. Today, they are striking back. It’s a master stroke! What will wealth do next?
Stay tuned.
Allright,I’m juiced up at IB for 10. There might be another piece of authorization blocking me from trading. We shall find out soon enough. Si02 – May straddles – 1.10 neat either way. I recall you not liking UCO at the end of month due to volatility as the future contracts are rolled over. Was this correct? Is there any danger in holding May straddles now? The IB trade screen is a bit overwhelming after using a basic equities broker so I don’t want to go fast gunslinging 2nd_ave style today. Hence, I saw an apparent opportunity to step into… Read more »
As I recently found out, the iPhone will not ‘tether’ a laptop: that is, allow you to use the smartphone to provide internet connectivity to a laptop (whether via bluetooth or usb cable). I just set up my BB 8700c to do just that. As the GSM networks get upgraded to usable data rates (+1000megabit), it becomes a usable mobile data connection (basically low DSL speeds). Jobs isn’t an idiot. If the cancer and/or HIV rumours aren’t true, he’ll fix this shortcoming in a future iPhone. Just a bit of info from a geek. Still working my way through Bill’s… Read more »
radix023, I just had that discussion with a Apple technician. It seems odd they didin’t consider some of us might like ONE wireless access device to serve others and ONE bill for that service since most of us only have ONE brain at a time.
Nice one Shark, I have been watching those casino’s too for a while (MPEL LVS MGM WYNN). Im based in Macau so i get to see them physically and their prices. (LVS nearly 50% in 4 days). If these guys dont liquidate, they should rocket more.
Meanwhile can anyone tell me if my old long WGW will do much in the coming months. Half of me says i should cash this fellow and stick it into the next LVS drop.
Vent Blues,
Can you give us a Peter Lynch type update of Casino’s right mow. Crowded, Empty in between. Is it easy to get on high roller tables. Is construction idle? ect.
Thanks
Bob
Construction idle. 3 enormous skyscrapers to be hotels stopped work a few months back, super structure howling in the wind of a very empty Cotai Strip, intended to be an extension of the Venetian. I think the priority was to complete their Singapore arm first. Wynn about to finish his hotel extension to what people describe as a very succesfull casino, MGM, well you have read about it in the news, possible break up, how will that effect the contract of the 50/50 deal with Stanley Ho’s daughter? , we dont know. Melco about to complete its enormous City Of… Read more »
“The era of banking secrecy is over,” said a statement issued by the G-20.
Hmm, isn’t the US gov’t keeping secrets about which banks are getting what bailout money? So much for leading by example…
It should be “the era of complete government control of corporate and personal finances has just begun.”
or alternatively, “the era of private capital formation is over.”
RE:>”The era of banking secrecy is over,” said a statement issued by the G-20.
Speaking of G20, I’m eager to hear your thoughts 2nd_ave on monday opening. Whatever positive spin might have been generated from G20 should have washed off by Sunday night. What other bloody rabbits can they pull out of their hats to juice sentiment?
Wouldn’t mind taking a stab at a lower opening next week. Today looks like a drifter.
What I heard was. “We are going to patch the bubble and reflate it at any cost, so this type of crisis never happens again!”
WASHINGTON (AP) — Five banks have repaid millions of dollars they received from the government’s $700 billion financial bailout pot, the Obama administration said Thursday. The Treasury Department, which oversees the bailout program, said the banks returned a total of $353 million. The banks are: Iberiabank Corp. of Lafayette, La.; Bank of Marin Bancorp of Novato, Calif.; Old National Bancorp. of Evansville, Ind.; Signature Bank of New York; and Centra Financial Holdings Inc. of Morgantown, W.Va. They were the first banks to repay the government, wanting to escape the increasingly tough restrictions placed on participants in the rescue program. In… Read more »
Seamus- Bank Of Marin is my bank. I have been a stock holder back when it first opened as a single branch(thanks Dad). When the share holders found out they took tarp money there was hell to pay. I suspect many other small banks are facing the same reaction.
This, according to themessthatgreenspanmade.com
http://themessthatgreenspanmade.blogspot.com/2009/…
Their chart is worth a gander …
A business man was interviewing applicants for the position of divisional manager. He devised a simple test to select the most suitable person for the job. He asked each applicant the question, “What is two and two?” The first interviewee was a journalist. His answer was “Twenty-two.” The second was a social worker. She said, “I don’t know the answer but I’m glad we had time to discuss this important question.” The third applicant was an engineer. He pulled out a slide rule and showed the answer to be between 3.999 and 4.001. The next person was a lawyer. He… Read more »
Ha!! Ha!! That was too funny.
Rob.
And a gamer would say it’s a hard four 😉
And I happen to know more than one guy who, before answering, would have asked whether we were buying or selling – obviously implying that his answer will depend on that
Today, the ETF for the Nasdaq 100 broke out above its January and February highs on higher volume than those previous peaks. As volume is, per Tim Ord, the “energy” which propels price moves, today’s action seem significant.
FWIW, the specific Naz 100 component whose individual breakout looks best to me is FLEX, although I have yet to check the “fundies” on FLEX. DYODD
Jock- That must be the first post I’ve seen from you re the Nasdaq. Probably a ‘tell’ in and of itself.
This is perhaps the second technical bull indicator I’ve heard, the first occurred on the 20% rise off the bottom.
I must admit things ARE getting more dire in Mexico than I had previously thought – although I have still not yet heard of any constraints on miners successfully transporting concentrate or bullion. (Mexico is now the world’s 2nd largest silver producing country after Peru). Today, an excellent review on how the drug war is penetrating local politics: http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/artic… Further, an American friend living in Puerto Vallarta just reported to me of a cartel’s current efforts to win control of a local gov’t in that region. I do believe Calderon’s gov’t will prevail, but at the cost of militarizing Mexican… Read more »
The Perth Mint looks better and better every DAY!!! http://tinyurl.com/ctv45g
http://tinyurl.com/yshgth
Man, does that take me back to ’69.
Watching Jim Lehrer and couldn’t believe my ears.
When asked if the heads of the various banks should be forced out like GM’s Rick Wagoneer, Nancy Pelosi wouldn’t answer the question and then mumbled that even though the directors should decide on leadership, to the extend the Gov’t has leverage they should use it. What a piece of work.
Saw Jeff Immelt on TV pumping his company this evening. I know, we’re not supposed to pay attention to the media but I couldn’t resist a glimpse and that’s what I saw.
News from Australia this morning.
http://tinyurl.com/cyzdba
Cheers
ALOHA !! G’day mate … Back in OZ … I can only imagine that bloody flight from NYC!!! YIKES, not to mention the Newark “connection”! HA!! I will echo Bill’s praises of your contributions here! Very much appreciated! You are also a good man! All my Aussie mates are … seems to be a trend … one that never disappoints! I would also like to say that about Vadym and Pascal … Of course Bill and Jim Watt and the other CARA logisitics people involved. My wife commented that she was impressed with the caliber of people who she met… Read more »
News from Australia this morning.
http://tinyurl.com/cyzdba
Cheers
Chris, Your expertise as a world-class expert in Mining (mine general manager at one of the big Goldcorp mines in Northern Canada) did not go unnoticed by the Conference attendees. You spoke with authority, and honesty, and people listened to your every word. Your contribution to the Kinross report, and to the reports on Silver Wheaton and Goldcorp before that, are outstanding. Nobody at HB&B — and I stress nobody — has assembled a finer team. I only wish Tony Garson (my close friend of 30 years) and Pierre Brodeur had been able to join us. We will add to… Read more »
Chris is the man in mining. He’s also a very friendly and genuine guy. He was kind enough to give me a mine management tutorial (along with Kaimu and NYUGrad) at the airport while waiting for my flight out of Nassau back to Miami. He knows where the bodies are buried, that’s for sure. Sometimes the fun parts come in the official parts of the conference, and sometimes they come in airports, you just never know.
Given the wonderful reputation of both Bill and the Bahamas, exceeding expectations was not easy. But, it was a Tremendous experience that I will never forget. I learned so much, from both the presenters and the other attendees…and also both within and outside of the conference sessions. I saw a portion of a country of incredible beauty, but I was also impressed by the kindness and pride of its people. I found successful traders that were eager to help, and discovered that I have more to offer in aiding the less experienced of our community than I thought. I’m a… Read more »
Hey Chris – I’m not a lurker for sure, glad you made it back to Australia in one piece – you must be exhausted. Thanks for all of your insight on mining in Canada and esp. in Australia, I found it very interesting and informative. Looking forward to reading more from you in the future
Cheers
Lori
That’s probably the key to playing ultimate FAS/FAZ. Wait for one side or the other to get played so hard they have to give it up. At which point you sweep up the positions being offered at any price (ie, at “market” ask).
If all that was needed was to change the accounting rules, Why did we need a bailout? I seemed to have missed something. Could someone explain further.
“If all that was needed was to change the accounting rules, Why did we need a bailout?”
Because the bailout was necessary before the accounting rules could be changed. The cart always goes behind the horse.
CP- Beautiful. Wish I’d thought of that one.
Good question. I can think of a few possibilities. (a) It was a stop-gap measure. (b) It was the best guess at the time as to what was needed. (c) They wanted to back-stop the worst possible scenario (ie, insurance). (d) Conditions (sentiment/confidence/perception and/or financial) have changed in the past three months. (a) If you’re walking through hostile territory/embarking on a hostile encounter, you’ll carry a weapon. Most likely you won’t need to use it, you need only display one. (b) Packing $5000 when you need $1000 gives you the back-stop required to manage the $1000 confidently. (c) How many… Read more »
Glad to see someone read it 🙂
http://tinyurl.com/cc9d2e
Can’t tell what’s fueling the rally.
2nd_ave, I was always wondering why you are looking at Asian markets — what information are you getting from them? I think it is extremely difficult to figure out what they imply for tomorrow’s open, since Asian market simply reflect what happened today. Looking at the US index futures is a much more direct way of guessing how the market opens tomorrow. Currently, the US index futures are down about 0.3%.
Asia/Europe Markets – I like to look at Asia to see if they detect something wrong or an event that occurs after our close. Europe gives me a heads-up if something’s wrong before our open.
Of course I never know if any one of these will telegraph to the US market…
I always look at Asian and European markets.
David- (a) How can I limit my reading/’read’ to just the US markets? It’s a global economy, right, and you want the whole picture. When we’re young and brash, the entire world is family and clique. As we get older, we begin to notice (or recall, in retrospect) the quiet guy in the corner, the ugly duckling who never speaks/spoke, the group bused in from across the tracks, whatever. The day will come when Asian markets do more than key off what happened in the US. If you speak/understand at least a little Chinese when that day comes, maybe you’ll… Read more »
RE:>(b) Personally, I find neither the Asian markets nor the US futures tell me much about how the US market opens the following day. You almost have to wait until 6am EDT.
anecdotally, I’ve looked to heavy buying in Asia and Europe as a preview of a positive US session.
I’m not sure if I can profit from being in a different timezone, however. I will have to familiarise myself with pre-market trading, how fas/faz et al. move in the hours prior to opening.
Nov low to Jan09 high was about 21% rally. From Mar09 low to now, we have about 20% rally in a short time. So maybe there is scope for another 10% or so after some pullback/consolidation?
So how much value erosion do we get from a realistic pullback and a return to the previous levels? Well, XLE closed at 45.83 on March 26 and ERX closed at $28.34 on that day. Today XLE closed at 45.14 and ERX closed at 26.73. If XLE rises tomorrow to 45.83, that would be a 1.5% increase, which would translate into a 4.5% increase in ERX and will put ERX at 27.93. So ERX will have lost 40c per share during this 6-day dip. I sold 1/4 of my position (250 shares) at $28.66, bought it back at $23 and… Read more »
David- Have you experienced value creation at all? Looking at SiO2’s graphs leads me to wonder under what conditions (if any), investors in Direxion funds would experience the mirror image of value destruction.
2nd_ave, ultra-long and ultra-short ETFs will always fall in value as the underlying index makes an oscillation and returns back to the same point. At the same time, during a clear uptrend an ultra-long ETF can have gains greater than 3X. So in order to play them well, one should have a very good feeling for the medium-term trend.
2nd, the opposite would occur in a perfectly trending market, where the market only goes up (or down), day after day after day:
Table:
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_iV5yDiKxCdk/SUF2vgnJZKI/…
Charts:
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_iV5yDiKxCdk/SUF0TATSejI/…
Article: http://shockedinvestor.blogspot.com/2008/12/ultra-…
Those are for 2X, 3X is even more. The way to protect against this is with cheap out of the money options (and shorting the ETFs).
SiO2- Seriously, you should think about giving a presentation at next year’s CTAB conference.
LOL 2nd. These ETFs are the “Financial Product of the Decade”, right up there with CDSs. But I don’t think either will end up well.