[7:26am ET] A year ago, I accurately predicted
Related Posts
- December 5, 2023
- By Bill Cara
- In Help you invest
- Comments Off on Interfield Global Software Inc.: Revolutionizing Industrial Data Management
- November 29, 2023
- By Bill Cara
- In Help you invest
- Comments Off on $GOLD is soon to make history
- November 22, 2023
- By Bill Cara
- In Help you invest
- Comments Off on Analyzing the Recent State of the Global Economy
- November 22, 2023
- By Bill Cara
- In Help you invest
- Comments Off on How Helpful is AI for Me?
- November 22, 2023
- By Bill Cara
- In Help you invest
- Comments Off on Navigating the Boundaries of Knowledge: OpenAI, Microsoft, and the Copyright Conundrum
- November 21, 2023
- By Bill Cara
- In Help you invest
- Comments Off on The Evolution of Work in the Age of AI, Automation, and STEM: A Journey of Exploration and Discovery
- November 19, 2023
- By Bill Cara
- In Help you invest
- Comments Off on “The Maverick Investor’s Handbook” v.21 draft is available.
- November 16, 2023
- By Bill Cara
- In Help you invest
- Comments Off on Walmart (WMT) Quarterly Report for Maverick Investors (Updated post-release of earnings)
CP- Thought this might interest you. http://tinyurl.com/dm4sgm
“The updated 12-stock list consists of Bank of Nova Scotia (BNS), Bombardier Inc (BDRAF.PK), EnCana Corp. (ECA), Goldcorp Inc. (GG), Petro-Canada., Potash Corp of Saskatchewan Inc., Research In Motion Ltd. (RIMM), Royal Bank of Canada (RY), Shoppers Drug Mart Corp., Tim Hortons Inc. (THI), Toronto-Dominion Bank (TD), and TransCanada Corp. (TRP).”
Is there a stock in this list which doesn’t give you a warm, fuzzy feeling? Oh Canada!
I have used two so-called computer experts in this country and they are both incompetent and have disabled everything I had running fairly well, if not perfect. In starting from scratch with all new systems, I am getting so much conflicting software that things are working sometimes but not others — like audio. One of the issues is in going from 32-bit word to 64-bit word technology. Some of the software that is downloaded just shuts down parts of my system. What the world needs are standards. What Bahamas needs is somebody you can trust with your computers. What I… Read more »
While I haven’t used their service, I have several friends who swear by Alienware’s setups, and I have been tempted. Just tell them all that you want, they’ll build it, don’t muck with it, and you’re off to the races.
http://www.alienware.com/company/about-us.aspx
Ray Dalio of Bridgewater told his investors he’d not go pee-pip because:
Either these investments will make a lot of money for their investors or the government will lose a lot of money — in either case, there will be reasons for politicians to complain and to focus on the five winners to see how they “abused” the system.”
I think he understands the political risks in pee-pip better than does Mr. Geithner-Summers!
In either case, Joe Sixpak will (at some point) trade in that pitchfork for an assault rifle!
Do you see a single Austrian economist anywhere on the MSM? These days you don’t even see a real republican, only has-been apologists….not that they’re my cup of tea, but IMO a balanced view and thinking outside the box is in everyone’s benefit. I watched all the major network news programs over the weekend and it’s all as managed to the Keynsian answers as it was a couple years ago toward neo-con answers. They are only interested in steering the collective opinion/answer in their direction by eliminating the possibility of any other response. I think Warren is coming out as… Read more »
ALOHA !!
Okay … watch this! Listen to the ideas being discussed on a major national TV show in the USA back in 1972(37 years ago). Some familiar faces for sure … One of those faces is still running for President!
OPRAH? ELLEN? Is it all just singing and dancing and self worship with a few gay agendas and puppies thrown in to spice it up?
Link: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W8qFPcwpSXw&NR=1
for 500 shares at $7.25. I was shaken out of my 5000 shares of SLW at $6 (I did rotate some of that money into UXG at $1.6, but not all) and I have been waiting for a pullback to get back in. Now I think the time has come to start scaling in. If SLW falls under $7, then I’ll probably sell some $7.50 puts on it, which should bring my cost basis under $6.
I notice Libor rates are down. As I recall, I believe Bill said this was also an indicator to watch to signify banks willingness to lend to each other. If so, the rates are at one of the lowest levels in a long long time.
Vinod- I know you were an early passenger on the train when it left @ 6500. You’ve gotten on/off many times since (not to mention catching a few going the other way). Now we’re (once again unexpectedly) picking up speed/passengers, which tells me the risk:reward in remaining seated is relatively good. When you start to see standing passengers (which may be as soon as tomorrow, or as late as early summer..who knows), then I agree it will be time to disembark.
2nd, im in the camp of early summer, but do you think that perhaps the market is a little ahead of itself and needs a little rest now and again, gold is getting hit hard again tonight in asia and the miners appear to be a little oversold after last week, do you think that perhaps the market goes up in the morning while gold is down and then the reverse for both happens, i am leaning towards keeping an eye on the miners in the morning.
tgifbipo- I see nothing wrong with your take.
My plans right now are to keep the buy-and-hold half of the portfolio intact until early summer (similar to your take), or DJIA 8500-9000 (it’s a wide range, but until we get there, I try to leave my options open), whichever comes first.
The trading half- well, anything goes.
Two signs I see tonight that look good for the rally continuing are: Gold down 1.75% to 878 and the dollar down .5% which bring it below it’s recent trendline and it looks to be breaking below the channel.
Rob.
Boston Globe website reported that that woman who tried to warn Larry Summers of issues at Harvard Management (and was fired for it) had a math Phd from Harvard. I guess she was one of those women who, Summers had argued, just couldn’t hack it in math and science. LOL Turned out she was right – Harvard has since lost billions. One of the commenters on the Globe article wrote: One day many years ago I lined up at the express checkout at a supermarket with 14 items (when you were only supposed to have 12). The guy behind me… Read more »
Jock- Good one. I would have put my sunglasses back on and asked “Do you have OCD and can’t help yourself?” ‘)
http://zerohedge.blogspot.com/2009/04/exposing-utt… So, what are those assets actually worth? “FDIC’s head Sheila Bair (who many WaMu shareholders lately do not feel too hot about) had some interpretative voodoo of her own, claiming the bid offer disconnect is purely due to a lack of liquidity and access to financing: “It has been clear for some time that troubled loans and securities have depressed market perceptions of banks and impeded new lending. Difficult market conditions have complicated efforts to sell these troubled assets because potential buyers have not had access to financing. The Legacy Loans Program aligns the interests of the government with… Read more »
If you’re an investor in the Japanese market, do you really want to be throwing cold water on a fired-up Asia?
Has not breached 15600 since last October. That would make it (almost) a 50% rally from the low.
Now that’s soul, brother. Your northern cousins fire a missile, and your market’s jumping to R&B…
2nd
for comong week. if you believe in
Jobless recovery, unemployment numbers are lagging indicator, the stimulus will work and will induce consumption, and Depressed Earnings will be accepted as last of the worst. The Mkt will keep on moving up. There is NO logic, reasoning or critical thinking here.
Than we going to rally further?
Vinod- Actually, I believe (a) Obama will come through with those 3m jobs, (b) the original stimulus plan was a joke, but I can tell you my 4.875% refi is no joke, and likely to increase my family’s consumption for many years to come, and (c) earnings comparisons are going to start looking good (they threw as much bad news as they possibly could into 2008).
Vinod- You’re a trader, right? Also one with a pretty short time frame. The questions you’re posing are good ones, but attempting to answer them is not going to make you any money tomorrow.
2nd
I know I got carried away reading paper and watching TV which I usually do not do.
When I hear from people about Job and other issue it make you title depressing
Let’s see what happens with ESLR this week.
If not posted already, find his podcast with the following link
http://events.startcast.com/events/199/B0003/#
next resistance is 875, if we clear 850
Hi Bill, I’ve been lurking on the forum for over a year and this is my first post. I must admit that this rally has been confusing. Your mantra always has been to trade the prices. With that in mind, what do you say of silver and gold? – Clearly they are hurting and perhaps have further ground to lose. – On the other hand over the last year, a lot of the rise in the precious metals has been due to uncertainty and fear. I can’t conclude whether the fear and uncertainty levels have come down. Looking at the… Read more »
http://tinyurl.com/cc9d2e
http://rawstory.com/news/2008/Economist_US_collaps…
IBM breaks off talks with Sun. http://tinyurl.com/dbl7hc . Also confirmed by the NYT.
http://tinyurl.com/dz4jsf
She says it’s necessary along with sacking the CEOs, regardless what Geithner thinks. This will be a big gauge on her clout. Picked up from Jesse’s where he opines if a haircut for the bondholders is in the cards:
http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2009/apr/05/use…
If this gets picked up early by MSM, market open tomorrow will sound like this:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wMZrW0p2INY&feature…
Good luck.
Her report has been available to everyone including the MSM for months, but gets as much notice as the warnings by David Walker, William Black and Simon Johnson of IMF. She did everything except call him a liar on Greta’s FOX news show, but the mainstream is too stupid, lazy or, just too tightly managed by those in power to give it any play. Most people will never know it. Regulator Says Bailout Fund Is Misleading the Public By REUTERS February 6, 2009 But in buying those securities, Henry M. Paulson Jr., then the Treasury secretary, misled the public about… Read more »
DR. Interesting, love the sound effect! Anyone know where these quotes came from, or what they are attributed to? There is only a vague reference to a “coming report”. Not even the standard…”people familiar with..”.
Statements like, ‘shareholders must be “wiped out.'”, caught my eye. That type of language would be unusual at the least.
2nd already filled us in on Githner’s comments this morning re- management changes.
PS- Nothing on Google.
Here’s the source:
“US watchdog calls for bank executives to be sacked
This article was first published on guardian.co.uk at 00.01 BST on Sunday 5 April 2009. It appeared in the Observer on Sunday 5 April 2009 on p1 of the Business news & features section. It was last updated at 00.09 BST on Sunday 5 April 2009.”
Of course, it’s quoting her in a major UK publication and says a ‘report’ is due ‘this week’ from her Congressional TARP oversight committee ….
If you hold equity in HB&B, I believe this is code for SELL!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tIeVWsRYmE0&NR=1
“If you hold equity in HB&B, I believe this is code for SELL!” Are you sure? In this corner, we have Elizabeth Warren, Harvard Law Professor appointed by the Senate to oversee the TARP program. She has already stated (“…she didn’t want to be too hard on Geithner”) that she will pull her punches. In the other corner, we have the Obama administration, the CEOs of HB&B, and an American public with much of their 401(k)s invested in index funds, which include the stocks of HB&B companies. They will most likely not be pulling any punches. She may ultimately be… Read more »
2nd_ave – As you must know, Elizabeth Warren is an oft praised expert on bankruptcy and so logically she must be eager to structure one or two of the mother of all bankruptcies to add to her vita. Maybe this week’s commission’s report will recommend or more likely only infer select bank nationalizations (Citi, BofA) effectively taking equity to zero while bagging a few bank execs to mount next to Waggoner’s head bust in the hall of shame on the way to the public vomitorium. There’s a whiff of b.s. in the form of a diversion-of-the-week while allowing President Obama… Read more »
“I don’t believe for a nano second that this is not a coordinated strategy between Congress and the White House.”
Exactly. She wants to be on the record for calling the right moves at the right time. But there is no way she went public without the explicit approval of higher-ups, and there is no way she wants to be responsible for initiating a market sell-off.
I have met Elizabeth Warren and have great respect for her. She does not strike me as a person unaccustomed to speaking her mind, or speaking truth to power, irrespective of the circumstances. As to the matter in question, I agree with her entirely.
OG- Absolutely. One does not become a Harvard Law Professor, nor appointed to chair a Congressional program, without those qualities. But neither does one in that position ignore the realities of power and/or take imprudent steps (eg, make inflammatory statements that lead to a market sell-off). I’m just calling the fall-out from the press release as I see it from a common sense POV.
Follow ups:
From New Zealand:
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/world/news/article.cfm?c…
NY Post: http://www.nypost.com/seven/04052009/news/national…
I’ve posted a few photos from the Bahamas conference in the Community pictures – no people, just some general views.
ALOHA !!
Thank you Vad … your photos brought back some fond memories!
NICE. Can Florida live up to those expectations, now everyone’s seen the location in the Bahamas?
Uh Vad, I’m somewhat perturbed by the wings of your airplane, which have been taped up. What airline was this?
Les- Congrats on the IB account. I was even getting angry at the ridiculous fees/time delays you had to deal with.
EDIT: Has your new access changed the way you trade? I know for me a 1/2 % change in a few minutes can change my holding period.
RE:> EDIT: Has your new access changed the way you trade? I know for me a 1/2 % change in a few minutes can change my holding period. Hi Mark, yes my trading has changed. I no longer feel obsessed watching a stock rise to a point where I get my commissions covered. If 2nd is confident enough to let an ETF run to a designated sell/buy limit, I’m happy enough to run across the street and have a drink with the neighbours, as I did last Friday! LOL. Yeh, tangible results are now readily available, as I saw with… Read more »
AirCanada. Don’t believe anyone who tries to tell you duct tape is not an appropriate material for air travel. If you can duct tape whole financial system, you surely can do the same with plane’s wing.
In January my flight was delayed because of oxygen masks malfunction. I joked that the thing would be fixed with duct tape. Two hours later it was finally fixed – with duct tape.
The airline: Air Canada. No wonder they may be soon filing for bankruptcy again.
“..the DJIA (Friday +39.51 +0.50% to 8017.59) and S&P 500 (Friday +8.12 +0.97% to 842.50) saw their largest four-week gains since 1933. The NASDAQ (Friday +19.24 +1.20% to 1621.87) saw its best four week gains ever.” We know the odds of red or black (leaving aside the 0/00 for now) are 50/50. And we know the odds of a string of reds is the product of the odds of a single red. I also know the odds of (most) gamblers winning by making successively higher bets on a string of blacks following a string of reds (even covering the 0/00)… Read more »
Question for you 2nd. If someones play $X on red on a roulette and loses, and then plays say 3X the previous amount on red again, repeating until eventually red is shown, is this still a losing strategy? Always wondered…
The issue with the leveraged ETFs is that, contrary to the roulette, if it actually oscillates up and down the investor loses. I have been running lengthy simulations on the 3Xs, and the math is mind boggling. A single or a few big movement, up or down, day causes a lot of damage to the investor.
There are actually some good properties of the ultra-long ETFs. For example, if one opens a long-term position in a sector and the sector starts going down, then a 10K position in a 3X ultra-long will lose less in absolute dollar amount than a 30K position in the underlying index. Similarly, if the sector starts going up, then a 10K position in a 3X ultra-long will gain more in absolute dollar amount than a 30K position in the underlying index. So for those who want to buy something in the current market and who set a reasonable profit target (say… Read more »
SiO2- I think I tried that strategy a few times when I started gaming (sometime in the mid-nineties). If it worked, it didn’t make an impression on me, so I would have to say ‘No.’ I do know I’ve watched hundreds of hapless newbies (including myself) make bets on 1:1 coin tosses (black/red, Banker/Player, whatever), betting consecutive heads after a long string of tails, only to see another long string of tails. Curiosity brings us back to the same table 30 minutes later, when we invariably see a long string of heads. Which is more or less where I get… Read more »
Do they get reported mid-April, or mid-July? Were I the CEO/CFO, it would be a tough call. My take- Bankers are (a) not risk-takers, and (b) birds of a feather. I would (i) closely monitor pre-reporting speculation, (ii) wait to see what the first reporting bank does, then (iii) be ready to jump ahead of later-reporting banks, and/or (iv) position myself in FAS/FAZ to chase/fade the reaction. One might also, of course, (a) sell the volatility via options, or (b) capture a move either way using straddles. The point is, there is (currently) uncertainty, and hence opportunity. http://tinyurl.com/ch65re “The provision… Read more »
ALOHA !! “Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and JPMorgan Chase & Co. were lead underwriters for HSBC. BNP Paribas SA, Credit Suisse Group AG, RBS, Citigroup Inc., Societe Generale SA, Intesa Sanpaolo SpA, Nomura and ING Groep NV, also underwrote the offering, according to a note sent to clients and obtained by Bloomberg.” Once again … the usual suspects profit! Without US TAXPAYER bailouts these “underwriters”, including most of the foreign banks would not be able to underwrite anything other than a CHAPTER 7! So where is the US TAXPAYERS cut on this “rights offer”? ELIMINATE THE US FED AND ITS… Read more »
You beat me to the punch. It will be interesting to watch the price action in reply to this news. If we are really in a rally mode it will rocket financials, conveying that this financing is great bullish news which shows banks are able to raise funds and weather this storm. If the news drags the banks overnight, i would assume that would mean traders are more focused on the 41% discount to the April 3 HSBC close price, and are worried about either industry dilution moving fwd, or prices for bank shares need to be discounted. Instinct tells… Read more »
http://tinyurl.com/c6plhw
“Instinct tells me it well be received as positive news at the open.”
NYUGrad- Nice call.