[7:40am ET] We all need to think about how quickly the world about us has been changing. In fact this popular 2008 presentation, which is already outdated, discusses the paradigm shift. You can only conclude that we live in exponential times.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cL9Wu2kWwSY
There are some startling facts presented, including (i) since I started blogging 5 years ago, 1 in 2 of you have changed employers
All that angst about SKF this weekend, and now this. What an interesting open. God only knows what they’ll really do when the lights come on for real.
I have jury duty this am so unable to trade. Placed a sell limit for FAZ @ 10.7 which I think is possible on an opening spike since we’re at 9.6 pre-market.
Going to try my best David impression and trade without trading. 😉
Obama demands accountability; I’ll just take real accounting. BAC beat on several one time gains, disclosed it had significantly increasing amounts of non-performing assets and failed to disclose what those non performing assets would be if their loans were marked to market…lovely world of banking that we live in.
Bulletin Bank of America says it made more in first quarter, $4.2 billion, than in all of 2008
$4.2 billion profit for B. of A.
Non performing assets rose to $26 Billion from $18 Billion at 12/31/08. As a percentage of total assets this rose over 30% from 12/31/08 to 2.65%. Keep in mind this doesn’t include loans measured at fair value, the amount of which the company decided was not important to disclose.
Yet what mention was there of MTM this time around from all the banks?
Nothing? So they’ve got a weapon of mass destruction up their sleeves for next earnings?
I heard C made money betting on its difficulties in gaining access to credit markets, or some such thing. Sounds like a sustainable future.
stop $43, limit $42.75, with the absolute size being about 4% of my cash+longs. Why? Well, I think this bear market rally is close to being done, and if the market starts falling now, it will pull down FCX with it. More importantly, Don Coxe has explained in his latest webcast that copper had an amazing rally not because of the world economy coming close to recovery but because China has been buying copper for a while. At some point, as the copper price rises, it will stop looking like a bargain to the Chinese, and they will stop their… Read more »
David – thank you for the note, it reminded me about FCX. I was thinking of shorting it at $40 but wanted to wait until I saw what looked like a top on the stock. I think I might take my proceeds from my FAZ that I will most likely close this A.M. and put it into FCX short.
Is it possible to bookmark Bill’s WIR’s? Or going through the archives is the only way?
So Pascal’s effective volume machine showed an interesting divergence Friday. Kinross Gold’s price dropped all last week, but large effective volume saw a significant change. Over the past week, KGC’s large effective volume has gone from a moderate downslope, to flat, and now to up, all while the price has been dropping. And at the same time, the small volume sales have declined more dramatically. As best I understand his system, this is bullish, since it shows a reversal in accumulation patterns by smart money while the price is dropping, with increasing selling by the crowd. When EV works best,… Read more »
Thanks for your analysis Dave, I’ve hung onto mine and I’m hopeful that is a good thing. Someone was a huge seller of this stock (probably for personal reasons) so I am looking for the reversal you speak of to happen.
In my travels and people I speak with I don’t see a bottom or things turning positive yet. My vet had to refinance her home to stay a float. Local stores are closing. We had 3 car dealerships, now we have one. Tile store owners wiped out their retirement trying to stay a float. They finally got bought out at a fire sale price and now work for the new owner. Granite guy had to team up with a competetor so they both can cut exspences. Carpet installers only have work for 3 days a week. Local lumber yard still… Read more »
BearE,
Sounds like you live here in Illinois.
So playing more with the new price/volume book concepts, if I look at GLD’s friday price action, it appears to be a moderately high volume day, but without too much result. That says to me “accumulation”. And given this is the second time down at this price level, and it appears to have support from Dec 08, this seems good for gold here. And the RSI is right at 30, too, which is always helpful. If they want to take gold down below resistance fast, they’ll have to gap it down hard before the NY open. edit: S&P futures off… Read more »
Martin Armstrong has been making his way around the gold bug blogs these days, especially because of the ringing endorsements from Jim Sinclair, among his theories of cycles is a significant turn date for 2009.3, which = to april 20th, 2009, 12 noon. apparently. this one is his most recent manifesto, a really interesting read. he is a controversial figure, and this work was completed from the jail cell he currently resides in for hte next few years…. imagine don coxe, john embry, and richard russell drunk off elliot wave spiked punch at a party, and someone recorded the conversation…… Read more »
According to my sources 2009.3 equals 4/23/09.
Here is “Martin Armstrong’s Economic Pi Cycle” an easier read faster read than yours.
Dr. cosa, I intend to read your download, but some people may find it helpful to start here.
http://tinyurl.com/d7zf9v
Couple that with this:
http://tinyurl.com/czb4e2
“U.S. to put conditions on TARP repayment”
Smart. The govt put conditions if you take TARP funds. Then when banks didnt like those conditions and want to repay them, the govt also puts limitations on that.
Great links, thanks NYU. The longer this plays out the more I’m afraid it’s a power grab.
Bill,
Always look forward to Sunday’s review. Thank you.
In answer to your question do the top 1% wage earners pay 34%,
apparently not, it is about 21%, as delineated at the following link
http://www.taxfoundation.org/news/show/22652.html
All the best,
Daniel
OOPS! Apparently I cannot read a table properly..21% is of AGI,
whereas 39% is the group’s (top 1%) share of income tax.
D
Like a stunad I went and played golf Friday morning even though I saw that Dryships was doing great..Talk about an easy trade, DRYS on Friday was it. I had promised someone I would golf and the weather was awesome.
Harrison’s better ideas….
“Sometimes the ability not to trade is as important as trading ability.”
“If you can’t find the sheep in the herd, chances are you’re it.”
“There is usually one easy trade per session if you let it show itself.”
“When in doubt, sit it out.”
“If you can’t find the sheep in the herd, chances are you’re it.”
That one hit home :). Will clean up some of my positions today. Seems SRS is gaining on the inverse in financials, will close it today with the gain in FAZ, after I clean up my FAZ calls, after I clean up…
:p
gold is gaining. Waiting for the 9am smackdown
gold’s gone vertical
I’ve posted this a few times. Harrison runs it periodically, and I never get tired of reading it.
http://tinyurl.com/c2nw6a
I really had to chuckle when I saw the ubiquitous Barack holding the book he was given along with the embrace for Hugo’s photo-op. Check out that photo. If I’m not mistaken, Grym, wasn’t Barack giving Hugo the Chicago Finger while grasping the book? What can’t be determined is whether B.B’s thumb was cocked back. If so, our Venezuelan charmer better continue to watch his back.
John Meynard Keynes was really the ‘Third Man.’
LOL
Variation on a theme?
for volumespread analysis. Still reading it, excellent stuff, forces me to look at the chart more closely from now on
[B]eginning May 1, Fannie and Freddie are refusing to fund loans with appraisals that do not follow a set of new rules known as the Home Valuation Code of Conduct. Among the procedural changes: Mortgage brokers no longer can order appraisals directly, but instead must allow lenders or investors to use third-party “appraisal management companies” to assign the job to appraisers in their networks. … Starting April 15, all good faith estimates provided to applicants must indicate a flat $455 charge for appraisals arranged through the appraisal management company. The broker previously charged $325. Consumers will now have to pay… Read more »
“Among the procedural changes: Mortgage brokers no longer can order appraisals directly, but instead must allow lenders or investors to use third-party “appraisal management companies” to assign the job to appraisers in their networks.”
So now the appraisers will be cherry-picked by the lender? This might prove interesting…
Some lenders like Wells Fargo who own their own system (!) have a way of handling that…
http://silverscorpio.com/hagens-berman-class-actio…
Hagens Berman Class Action Says Wells Fargo, Rels Illegally Strong-Arm
Appraisers
April 15th, 2009
Hagens Berman Class Action Says Wells Fargo, Rels Illegally Strong-Arm
Appraisers First appraiser suit against Wells Fargo and Rels claims
companies blacklist appraisers.
Vinod, I was up in the wee hours last night posting calmative emails to my realtors about the MAYDAY alert of HVCC. While the change sucks from a logistics asking your client for their credit card point of view it’s no different than hanging out a week for your VA appraisser to upload the report. We all know the local firms and trust they are finding the same comparable sales. Interesting aside: Wells Fargo is being investigated for using their service (Rels) to strong-arm higher prices from appraisers. Ironically, the change to having the lender manage the process is supposed… Read more »
We really have not seen full impact of ARM resets. I googled a bit and found these links http://blog.redfin.com/sfbay/2009/02/case-shiller_… http://tinyurl.com/35q2kg Basically, we are back to 2002 levels in home prices and a 28% loss in the composite index from the peak. This means even those borrowers who put up 20% down have been wiped out completely and cant refinance with HVCC (even those who can afford to pay monthly payments). Lets take the case of a good borrower. Options would be a)pony up more money to meet 20% on revised prices b)take risk and let the ARM reset (short term… Read more »
Shiva, The National stats are somewhat misleading if a good big picture feel for trends. Our local Pacific NW values are back to ’07 levels (from ’06 high) and in fact, many locales and price points are improving–modestly, in single digit values. So if you did buy 100% chances are you have not lost ground. And if you did get 100% financing legitmately you should sit tight or refinance if you can. The wave of Californians and Michiganians (is that a word?) flooding here is astounding. We did leap to 8.5% unemployment this quarter, but again misleading: in our area… Read more »
Loannetter, If you look to the san francisco bay area curve, its pretty accurate. Santa Clara county for example is pretty accurately depicted. Agree there are some pockets even in bay area where the prices have probably dropped just about 10% from the peak (essentially rich neighbourhoods where people havent sold anything). 105% is apparently only for FNM/FRE loans. Most being jumbo mortgages here, its not eligible. Plus, I am hearing that FNM/FRE want 75% ratio. Banks have also gone ultra conservative with their valuations (last 3 months, avg of high/low within a certain radius etc). So, in an illiquid… Read more »
Shiva, no denying if your values have dropped your goose is cooked. Unless of course the loan can be held. Jumbo portfolio lenders are offering under 6% these days so many will be helped if they can cough up the 25% they should have put down in the fist place. I hear you about valuations. Banks tend to scrutinize when other factors are at play like low credit scores, high Debt to Income or a declining market. Not fair but how it is. 75% ratio is for the declining markets again…due to general malaise and risk. Too too bad for… Read more »
Loannetter, I think you are missing the point. I have friends who paid 20% down(no misrepresentation nothing, only mistake is they didnt time the purchase very well which i believe is a genuine error), have good incomes (not eligible for that 105% program due to income levels etc). Now the market has gone down to say 35% from the purchase price, when they re-fi, they need to put in another 20% on current prices (thats like buying the house with cash down)…. How many are carrying around extra cash for that 20%, whats going to happen when those defaults rise?… Read more »
Shiva, I hear you. Your friends and anyone who bit off more than they chew should seriously consider the other modification options:
http://activerain.com/blogsview/1043266/MOD-SQUAD-…
Here’s what the sales force has to say about home price recovery:
http://link.brightcove.com/services/player/bcpid14…
Piece from Barrons – unfortunately a paid article. “MANY COMMODITIES HAVE HAD A NICE RUN LATELY, including crude and copper, following a dreadful second half 2008. And Derek van Eck, a principal of New York money manager Van Eck Associates, sees more opportunities, thanks in no small part to demand from countries like China. His firm oversees close to $10 billion, about $3.3 billion of which is spread across Van Eck Global Hard Assets (ticker: GHAAX) and separate accounts run under the same strategy. Lead manager Van Eck, 44, still likes the outlook for copper, maintains that gold is an… Read more »
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/04/19/business/economy…
Tax on money viewed by Mankiw as solution to declining velocity of money.
The community hospital (about 200 beds) has laid off management and nurses, and the administration has taken 5-10 percent pay cuts. The match on employee 401Ks also was eliminated…I have read that some HMOs are laying off doctors. http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/10254238 Someone I spoke with the other day told of talking to a Dunkin Donuts (DEO) franchisee (who owned six stores) who reported business is down 20% (you wouldn’t know that from the lines at the local Dunks I visited today). As some here know, my sister is CEO of BJs Wholesale (I don’t trade the stock), but they opted to accept… Read more »
market is doing a good job of sucking in those who were sitting on the sidelines and short
Anyone following oil service companies? They seem to be breaking out and have had a nice run in April. Check $MGO, $OSX, NBR, BJS, WFT, SLB, DO (pull 1 yr chart).
2nd,
I totally agree with you. A bunch of focussed trades during market bottoms & tops in the correct direction seem to give the biggest pay-offs. Since last oct, we have had 5 such opportunities, now if only i can read the charts to the right side 🙂
Shiva,
I do, PXP HK, SLB, DO, RIG, HAL. Since volume analysis is the study point for the weekend, looks a little thin.
2nd- Can my housing take also be described as “shaking out the weak hands”? Kinda feels like it. If my kids weren’t so young I would have pulled the trigger on a rental.
Currently long PDS and CPX (based on insider buying). SGY also strong but about to encounter long term downtrend, so perhaps not a good time to buy. Not justifiable on “fundamentals” of low nat gas and oil prices, so technical trades.
“Can my housing take also be described as ‘shaking out the weak hands’?” Mark- I’m not so sure we can apply the shake-out scenario to rental property. Selling real estate takes great effort and more than a little time. I would be more inclined to say “keeping out the weak hands-” to strike great deals you would have to be willing to buy into a highly negative and uncertain environment. But that’s how many investors make life-changing returns. I know you can’t be tied to the computer on a day like this! 70 and sunny here on the Peninsula. Took… Read more »
wow 2nd, that lake looks like it’s sitting on a fault line. scary thought.
2nd- “I know you can’t be tied to the computer on a day like this!” No chance, Man! Spent the morning chasing the kids around the park, and the afternoon teaching my 1 1/2 year old to swim. (err…not drown.) Thanks for the hiking tip. It sounds beautiful. I’ve gotten my head straight after a few day of fog. LT I’m still Bullish, but will look for an entry point to short for the ST. Bill’s comment about volatility today caught my attention. If I miss more up-side, so be it. I’m also going back to looking at stocks as… Read more »
So I’ve sold the May calls at the forementioned price. I’m a little in the green for the underlying, so I bought at around 8.85. If I understand correctly, and please correct me otherwise, the underlying cost was reduced to 7.16 and if it hits 9.00 tomorrow morning then its taken away for a 20% gain. FAZ is sitting at 8.90 and I anticipate the same roller coaster debut to the session. That’s a risk/reward ratio that I found compelling after chasing shifting trends all week. It will certainly help me recover what I lost. Unless BAC lights a rocket… Read more »
Les – If I understand correctly, and please correct me otherwise, the underlying cost was reduced to 7.16 and if it hits 9.00 tomorrow morning then its taken away for a 20% gain. FAZ is sitting at 8.90 and I anticipate the same roller coaster debut to the session. With a call, your underlying stock is only taken away from you (usually) at expiration – i.e. 3rd friday in the month stated in the call. In this case, May. In rare cases it happens before that, but the thing you should count on is the price at close of business… Read more »
“With a call, your underlying stock is only taken away from you (usually) at expiration”
ah, well that is not cool. Of course, buying entails the right, but not obligation – not until opex anyway, apparently. Ok will unwind that today. thanks.