Cara's Commentary & Community Chat, Mon., Jan. 26, 2009

[8:00am ET] The noise level is building from the ‘experts’ on TV. By the end of the week, I expect that most of the S&P 500 earnings will be in and probably 20% of these companies are likely to disappoint. Then there will be a new round of stories, mostly negative. But, as long as the Banks can manage their capital issues, which is likely, and we see more instances of insider buying from bank officers and directors, like JP Morgan CEO Jamie Dimon for instance, the market will also likely be net buyers, and prices should generally lift.

Enjoy your day and your week. I


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jock
jock
January 27, 2009 5:00 pm

If they are engineered to go up twice as fast (daily basis) and down twice as fast, “buying and holding them” gets you nowhere that a single return ETF wouldn’t (except additional complication and counterparty risk).

SO, it seems to me, they’re ONLY better if you can time the turns, and hold them when the added returns will apply.

For example, a friend of mine held GDX until gold really looked like it had bottomed, then switched to PMPIX (double return gold stock mutual fund). But he’ll be out of there at the next cycle top.

Am I missing something?

vinod
vinod
January 27, 2009 2:33 pm

sold DZZ 23.80 cost 23.00 yesterday
order to buy USO at 30.00 and uco at 11.00

Grym
Grym
January 27, 2009 1:59 pm
Grym
Grym
January 27, 2009 1:32 pm
Grym
Grym
January 27, 2009 1:09 pm
davefairtex
davefairtex
January 27, 2009 10:15 am

Gold is down in asia -14 overnight. But trading seems gentle in asia compared to how things go once New York goes live.

David
David
January 27, 2009 9:28 am

My cost basis is at $10.80, so let’s not be too greedy.

David
David
January 27, 2009 9:21 am

The recent 2-day move in WGW has been somewhat extreme, and I expect it to pull back soon. However, in case it makes another spike tomorrow morning, I am placing a sell limit order for 2000 shares at $1.88.

swissrobinson
swissrobinson
January 27, 2009 8:45 am

“In this essay we attempt to estimate global money supply and relate it to global supply of gold. For the global money supply, we use money supply figures for currency in circulation from 86 selected currencies, from 81 independent countries and five monetary unions. For the global supply of gold, we use data from the World Gold Council (WGC). Finally, we attempt to interpret the price of gold as a relationship between global money supply and global gold supply.”

http://www.financialsense.com/fsu/editorials/dolla

swissrobinson
swissrobinson
January 27, 2009 8:38 am
davefairtex
davefairtex
January 27, 2009 8:25 am

In recent times (i.e. my daily chart reaching back to June 2008), the RSI-7 has been pretty predictive to my eyes. The 6 times gold has had an RSI-7 > 75-80, it tends to signal a near term top is at hand. Right now, RSI-7 for gold is 77. Based on this, gold might have another 20 points left in this run, but I see a higher downside risk now than upside possibility. We’ve had a good straight 7 day run from 810 – 910. Its probably time for a breather. That, plus a resistance zone for gold from the… Read more »

greg
greg
January 27, 2009 4:31 am

Up big today due to short covering from an article that stated that they were about to sell their shoe business to another company to pay down LT debt. But the analyst went on to say that the sale of the company would be a good option. It may be worth looking at for a day trade.

Chickenpookie
Chickenpookie
January 27, 2009 4:15 am

Is this our signal to close out longs?

seadog
seadog
Reply to  Chickenpookie
January 27, 2009 9:50 am

I don’t think you will know until tomorrow. The upper tail indicates seller pressure and rejection of higher prices. A Shooting Star confirmation is represented by trading below the body of the star. Given RSI(7) daily overbought it is likely there may be a retracement in the short term.

However this is all conjecture as any broader market influence will likely have a greater effect on GLD than instrument intrinsics.

Bon adventure!

omphalos
omphalos
Reply to  Chickenpookie
January 27, 2009 6:18 am

I’d say no.

We’re at the top of a channel (or flag, or pennant, or whatever you want to call it), for sure.

Yet since Oct, look at RSI, look at OBV, look at CCI, look at MACD.

Look at them all vs. price.

If my two attachments come through, to me they show massive resistance at 89.90. I’ll play that, but the preponderance of the evidence points to a breakout from the channel.

yvrapx
yvrapx
January 27, 2009 3:34 am

Sleep easy it’s only $400 Million and another thieving scumbag is caught. Not under SEC oversight, provided bridge/construction loans etc. advertised 13-14% returns annually.
http://tinyurl.com/ct6ozv

NYUGrad
NYUGrad
Reply to  yvrapx
January 27, 2009 3:41 am

if i had more time i would start a blog tracking all these frauds and scammers coming out of the woodworks. i could prob make a nice living selling ads on the site too.

yvrapx
yvrapx
Reply to  NYUGrad
January 27, 2009 3:55 am

NYUGrad yes it is sad but true, there will be plenty more of these to come if for no other reason than there is heightened diligence/awareness.
I still believe these guys should be doing hard time in a small cell w/Bubba. They are far worse than an armed robber IMO as they affect and ruin far more people in a more destructive fashion.

2nd_ave
2nd_ave
January 27, 2009 3:16 am

What a difference a week makes!

http://tinyurl.com/b9xvqb

http://tinyurl.com/czfgk7

NYUGrad
NYUGrad
January 27, 2009 3:09 am

it dawned on me that up until now SLW was a fancy silver ferrari but the bankers were driving. SLW is now in a driver position, no longer just waiting for spot prices to rise (and this was their only play) with the looming debt constantly present. With the added funds, they can control their own destiny, and now have capital to pick and choose a potential silver stream acquisition, in addition to rising silver, with less debt. So there may be more shares, but each share has more upside for growth. I am not a mining expert but i… Read more »

bobbyo
bobbyo
Reply to  NYUGrad
January 27, 2009 4:20 am

You could look at it with a positive spin, but you could also say it is as you stated before a dilution of stock. It also maybe a needed look for new pipelines of silver. SLW business model is basically to pay a discount on silver that is not mined yet. A lot of that silver is in base metal mines. World econ slump blah blah. Then there is a retraction in base mining due to low metal prices and demand. Walla all of a sudden SLW owns a lot of silver that might not be mined for years. This… Read more »

NYUGrad
NYUGrad
Reply to  bobbyo
January 27, 2009 7:09 am

Just for comparison here is Agnico-Eagle from Nov 19, when they announced their own bought deal. there was a panic sell off that day as well, which set a near term floor.

Understandably not all financing is the same but i remain hopeful.

Chart: http://tinyurl.com/bvtvrn

Nov 19 Bought Deal news link: http://tinyurl.com/bf4g73

Johnny
Johnny
January 27, 2009 3:09 am

Nikkei 225 7,950.07 +267.93 +3.49%

vinod
vinod
January 27, 2009 3:00 am

Before Open

GLW,EMC,Phoenix Technologies,Lexmark,Check Point,Tellabs,Verizon
After the close

Yahoo,Sun Microsystems,Altera,Emluex,Hutchinson Technology,Plantronics
Keynote Systems,Websense,F Micro Devices,Openwave,LogicVision,Vistaprint,Callidus Software

NYUGrad
NYUGrad
January 27, 2009 2:51 am

http://tinyurl.com/aj6z5u

this is getting egregious.

they said no to Lehman. they need to start saying no to second servings. By now, if these entities were not bailed out and they gave every working citizen $100k, it prob would have been cheaper.

bigwad1
bigwad1
Reply to  NYUGrad
January 27, 2009 3:23 am

Someone has to pay for the extravagant excesses of corporate America for the last decade. Most of these CEO’s have a half dozen multi million dollar iron gated compounds in the US and various other countries around the world. Yacht’s, private jets, 5 story libraries with their name over the front door, million dollar antiques on every wall of their gated compounds, gold watches that cost ten times more then a second class persons home, a dozen guest workers making minimum wage while catering to their every whim, a lazy streak a mile long, the ability to lie at any… Read more »

bobbyo
bobbyo
January 27, 2009 2:07 am

So EDC are you bullish or bearish. Didn’t you hear the econ will pick up in the 3rd Quarter.
bob

EDC
EDC
Reply to  bobbyo
January 27, 2009 2:12 am

haha – I heard that too… but it seems to be a broken record too.

recovery in 2nd half of 2007, recovery in 4th quarter of 2007, first half of 2008, 3rd quarter of 2008, late 2nd half of 2008. First quarter of 2009, 3rd quarter of 2009.

Near term, – slightly bullish or more. Would love to go bear hunting.
afterwards – bearish – would love to shoot me some cowboys.

heeeyaw!

vinod
vinod
Reply to  EDC
January 27, 2009 3:13 am

to me side way action in S&P is not good, today with good news it did not hold early morning gain of 850

2nd_ave
2nd_ave
Reply to  vinod
January 27, 2009 3:23 am

“to me side way action in S&P is not good, today with good news it did not hold early morning gain of 850.”

vinod, my man…i think we go up for awhile…JMO, which as you know by now, is based on sentiment, and has only a 50/50 chance of playing out when proffered the night before 😉

Johnny
Johnny
January 27, 2009 2:05 am

List of how your US Senators voted http://tinyurl.com/aplojl a quick scan seems to indicate Business as usual. Tax evasion – nooo problem, just a strick party line finger to the American taxpayer.

Finger Lakes
Finger Lakes
January 27, 2009 1:32 am

Well the rally might start tomorrow if Geithner(the only person in America who doesn’t know he’s supposed to pay SS and Medicare taxes) has as much pull as Paulson.

And don’t forget how huge that rally was.

Rob.

Pillzilla
Pillzilla
January 26, 2009 11:10 pm

Its a small position and I wouldn’t hold you accountable. : ‘ )

Besides I plan a 3 bagger with this one. LOL

I am trying to see your point on the stop loss @ 2.49, but I dont see much diff in 2.45…..I guess I dont understand what you mean by visibility? I will be using mental stop anyway. Regardless, I would like to know what you meant?

BOB 47
BOB 47
January 26, 2009 11:07 pm

NYUGRAD Your Post #8691was very good .Best of all was your Attachment ! Could you tell us about what software you used to make that Attachment. Thank you, Bob.

NYUGrad
NYUGrad
Reply to  BOB 47
January 26, 2009 11:43 pm

That is TD Ameritrade. i just took a screenshot into adobe photoshop and saved to web. then attached to the post. EDIT: I use stockcharts.com, but mostly software from Worden. The free older version is called Blocks, no longer supported. but the new one is called stockfinder. Just google Worden Stockfinder. I highly recommend. i have buckets of stocks, IBD (400+ stocks), Cara 100, personal watchlist, etc. You can setup combo conditions such as stoch crossing up thru oversold line & MACD crossing up thru MovAvg9, and it sorts thousands of stocks in seconds. being able to go thru 100… Read more »

ssv
ssv
January 26, 2009 10:22 pm

This guy made a killing betting against CDS.
He is always a bit early to the game.

Buffett Of Canada Buying Stocks Again

“Watsa has returned a compounded 19.5% annualized from 1993 through the end of 2007, according to filings”

http://tinyurl.com/bh3glk

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