Cara's Commentary & Community Chat, Mon., Feb. 9, 2009

[6:00am ET] Who would have taken the International Monetary Fund for being an early adopter of the ‘D’ word? Following a speech in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia, IMF CEO Dominique Strauss-Kahn is reported in the Wall St. Journal as telling reporters that the US, Western Europe and Japan are “already in depression,” and that the IMF could slash its global growth forecasts further. The “worst cannot be ruled out,” he said. These comments were far more pessimistic than forecasts released by the IMF as recently Jan. 28, said the WSJ.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/IMF
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dominique_Strauss-Kahn

Is the economics professor talking up the IMF gold position or simply getting the world to see that the central banker’s banker is going to issue its own debt, in which case all double-entry bookkeeping comes to an end as liabilities become endless, fiat money worthless, and the only countervailing asset is gold. Yes, gold @$2500, here we come. It’s just a matter of time.


Like to give your opinion? Join our Community Discussion

Subscribe
Notify of

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.

0 Comments
Inline Feedbacks
View all comments
QT
QT
February 13, 2009 4:26 pm

t

teamonfuego
teamonfuego
February 10, 2009 7:24 pm

looks like an excellent short.

TraderGirl
TraderGirl
February 10, 2009 1:36 pm

Your comments always get me thinking. You were missed. Glad you’re back.

kaimu
kaimu
February 10, 2009 1:27 pm

ALOHA !! One of the first line items under “Withdrawals” at the DAILY TREASURY STATEMENT is something entitled “Commodity Credit Corporation” or CCC … ANyone here know what that is? Has it ever even been mentioned on national TV yet? On 60 Minutes? I mean so far we have spent $16.3bil USD($3.6bil per month)on it. Just on Feb 6th, last Friday, we US Taxpayers spent $55mil on it in one day! More than double food stamps and temporary services for needy families combined! Here it is over at the USDA and FSA(Farm Service Agency)… Commodity Credit Corporation Programs Program Summary… Read more »

kaimu
kaimu
February 10, 2009 1:06 pm

ALOHA!! REALITY CHECK!! Well, the US Payroll Taxes have broken down substantially year over year now. Based on charts going back to 2000 this is significant. The only thing holding the USDX value is that Russia and the EU look worse purely from a “free floating currency” weighting, which is all fiat is! Government promises backed by their credit! DEBT-R-US!! The US fiscal year for 2009 began in October 2008. That is four and a half months ago and so far based on the “DAILY TREASURY STATEMENT”-Cash And Debt Operations Of The US Treasury, for Feb 6th, last Friday, the… Read more »

NYUGrad
NYUGrad
February 10, 2009 7:20 am

http://tinyurl.com/bshwcg

i also see conflicting job cut #. One above said 15k. the one below said ubs would cut about 1,600 more jobs at its investment bank soon. so not sure which is right or if both are right. as in 1600 now and 15k by end of yr?
http://tinyurl.com/cdyruy

Chickenpookie
Chickenpookie
February 10, 2009 4:00 am

“Feb. 9 (Bloomberg) — Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner is seeking to draw investors into the U.S. financial-rescue program, aiming to add private funding as a new component of proposals to address the toxic debt clogging banks’ balance sheets.”

Oh boy, I just can’t wait to get my hands on bundles of this toxic debt.

vinod
vinod
Reply to  Chickenpookie
February 10, 2009 12:30 pm

Chickenpookie

Toxic assess is better than no assess.

bobbyo
bobbyo
Reply to  Chickenpookie
February 10, 2009 4:25 am

Maybe it could be bundled into a new kind of T-bill. Get your Toxic Bill now!

yvrapx
yvrapx
February 10, 2009 3:04 am

Craig, I hope you are holding up given the state of your mother’s health. I wish you well and my support is firmly with you and your family in this trying time. Just read Maudlin’s most recent piece by Louis Gave and thought of you, I know you will relate. 🙂
http://tinyurl.com/by5mpk

vinod
vinod
February 10, 2009 2:57 am

Friend send me this Email DNDN -before April trial results are in. Gamble pure speculation high risk reward. Provenge is expected to have yearly sales of $1 BIL. If it’s approved, you can expect DNDN to trade in the $30s within 6 months. The company will not be DNDN for long after that, it will be bought out . In a meeting with the FDA on May 29, 2007, Dendreon received confirmation that the FDA will accept either positive interim or final analysis of survival from ongoing Phase 3 D9902B IMPACT study to support licensure of Provenge. The primary endpoint… Read more »

r. saunders
r. saunders
February 10, 2009 2:57 am

Kirk’s Report had this Washington Post link that details what $800Bil+ is supposed to buy.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/graph

Apologies if someone has already posted it as I see in the source that the graphic shows a Feb. 1 date.

NYUGrad
NYUGrad
February 10, 2009 3:07 am

http://tinyurl.com/clqheq

it sounds like progress to me. A compromise but a step fwd.

Edit: just for the record i dont like any bailouts. and i hate that this is more debt. but i am not the president. i keep telling myself “it could be worse”

jock
jock
February 10, 2009 1:44 am

He’s DECENT, honest, worldly-wise, hard=working, and super-intelligent. What more can we demand? If conservative pundits were fish, they’d all be CARP !

jock
jock
Reply to  jock
February 10, 2009 2:40 am

footnote: Obama is the best leader we could hope for at this juncture; but it’s unlikely a depression can be avoided. Trade gold stocks, and don’t take it out on Barack …

Illini
Illini
Reply to  jock
February 10, 2009 6:03 am

My impression of today’s press conference is that we may have a Pres who is much more intelligent and engaged than any predecessor in recent memory. Attributes much needed. Gives me hope.

Chickenpookie
Chickenpookie
Reply to  jock
February 10, 2009 2:18 am

I can’t help liking Obama, he has that kind of personality that grows on me.

NYUGrad
NYUGrad
February 10, 2009 1:31 am

Taking good questions. making clear points. a salesman’s salesman.

Made the short/midterm/longterm reference to spend now to stop the slide, but once we equalize we have to all act more prudently and not buy homes with zero down.

i just hope politics doesn’t wear him out.

Bill Cara
Bill Cara
Reply to  NYUGrad
February 10, 2009 1:38 am

He’s a remarkable person. Americans should be proud.

Mark Barry
Mark Barry
Reply to  Bill Cara
February 10, 2009 2:02 am

He couldn’t possibly be different!…..Could he?

Ventilation Blues
Ventilation Blues
February 10, 2009 1:27 am

Ive had two real dogs in my portfolio. Whats with these two?. Im 30% down on WGW and just sat on it way too long now. SWC has never done anything. What gives?

bobj
bobj
February 10, 2009 1:23 am

I’ve been upset that I’ve made some bonehead decisions legging out of covered call positions but then I put things into perspective — My mother is in not in intensive care, my sister is not berating me for decisions I’ve made, and I am not impacted by the terrible fires in Australia that have taken so many lives. Suddenly I feel embarrassed to be worrying about a few dollars I’ve donated to someone else. To those in real pain, please accept my condolences.

dr.cosa
dr.cosa
February 10, 2009 12:59 am

just posted a 1 year gold chart w/ some moving average studies on my blog,
comments as always are welcome:

http://jglobal.blogspot.com/2009/02/moving-average

bobbyo
bobbyo
Reply to  dr.cosa
February 10, 2009 2:43 am

Nice simple chart. I like it. The thing that jumps out to me is how well RSI buy signals indicated a great entry for gold.
Bob

jock
jock
February 10, 2009 12:34 am

For the 4th time in a month, Cramer tonight pumped APEI, an online university with 90% military students. He pans the rest of the industry, but likes APEI. He ends by saying he can’t imagine what could go wrong for the stock if you buy on a pullback, since the Pentagon is a great payer, only 30% of enlisted soldiers have Bachelors’, and taking credits while in the military enables soldiers to pass GI Bill benefits on to their spouses and dependents. WELL, if Cramer can’t imagine what could go wrong, he hasn’t looked very hard. Two years ago, I… Read more »

NYUGrad
NYUGrad
Reply to  jock
February 10, 2009 1:11 am

He needs to be removed from television.

Seamus
Seamus
February 9, 2009 11:54 pm

Checking in from a library “down under” . . . nice to read Bill’s WIR to stay in touch. Although placing a slug of cash on the sidelines and picking up some FXA @ 66 before leaving, left some positions open (and fortunate I did). Received confirm emails from on GTC sale of 70% of TRA position at 23.91 and closed defensive OXY Feb 55 puts position for small profit last week. Kaimu- “If you are used to driving in Australia then you’ll do fine” — that’s exactly what I’m doing . . . had a nighttime experience dodging kangaroos… Read more »

Vadym Graifer
Vadym Graifer
February 9, 2009 11:00 pm

*US SENATE VOTES TO LIMIT DEBATE ON $827B STIMULUS BILL; A PROCEDURAL VOTE THAT ALLOWS THE BILL TO MOVE ON TO A VOTE ON AMENDMENTS AND A FINAL VOTE ON TUESDAY
– vote was 61-36, overcoming a filibuster

westcoaster
westcoaster
February 9, 2009 10:37 pm

I felt the presence of bigfoots in the forest today. Took my profits in CNQ and AGU, sitting on Yamana @ $10.4 av. What’ll they do next?

kaimu
kaimu
February 9, 2009 9:56 pm

ALOHA !! Petrohawk(HK:NYSE)is a company I have an intimate relationship with now since they are drilling on my family’s North Louisiana natural gas property near Haynesville,LA and in East Texas. These properties have been in our family for over 100 years now and some were grants signed by Sam Houston. I own no shares and so I cannot comment on any shareholder info other than geologics … These guys have a high success rate in bringing in wells, somewhere around 95%+, while they have cut production costs and grown revenues consistently year-over-year. Link: http://www.petrohawk.com/ir/ar/documents/Petrohawk… From news dated Feb 3, 2009… Read more »

sammas
sammas
February 9, 2009 9:32 pm

From SEC filing:

“Current 2009 guidance for reported EPS is $2.85 to $3.00, including adverse currency impact of 80 cents at current exchange rates. At spot rates in mid-December, guidance would have been 40 cents higher.”

Seems like a fairly straight-forward, inverse dollar play to me. Huge dividend.

Still just watching. Any thoughts?

bsi87
bsi87
February 9, 2009 9:30 pm

bought a bit AH. Also a hedge against long positions.

Looking over $cpc/$naa50r, indicators show a ST overbought condition. Can get more overbought but my guess is the bailout “rumor” was bought. Now we’ll see if the “news” is sold.

Also opts expiration is Friday, Feb 20. Per Sy Harding, the big boys like to get the market down this week so they can buy calls for pennies and then run it up options expiration week.

We’ll know in the fullness of time (probably over by this Friday).

kaimu
kaimu
February 9, 2009 9:21 pm

ALOHA !! The two clear leaders in terms of energy consumption for the future(to 2030)as forecast by the EIA(Energy Information Administration)is coal and natural gas. Link: http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/ieo/pdf/ieoreftab_2.pdf According to these forecasts for energy consumption this “recession/depression” will be a minor speed bump! According to what I saw in my travels I could see no evidence at all of even a recession if “traffic” is an indicator! Most people I spoke with agreed … The streets of Nassau were not exactly empty, that’s for sure, as I did rent a car there and drove both day and night there for eight… Read more »

Dr. Strangelove
Dr. Strangelove
Reply to  kaimu
February 9, 2009 9:49 pm

Kaimu –

Welcome home.

Perhaps EIA assumes Congress/President are going to allow USAF to sign the necessary 20+ year contracts to start a coal-to-liquid industry. Maybe even an earmark or two to fund full scale seqestration of emissions. BTU is flying…

Bill Cara
Bill Cara
Reply to  kaimu
February 9, 2009 9:25 pm

kaimu, at least you didn’t point out how much fuel we drank.

kaimu
kaimu
Reply to  Bill Cara
February 9, 2009 9:58 pm

ALOHA !!

Yes Bill … perhaps some shares in Kalik!! HA!! I did notice the Bahamas has an exchange or at least that is what I saw on local TV there. Not much shares traded daily though!

Bill Cara
Bill Cara
February 9, 2009 9:21 pm

In Saturday’s Report, based on my thinking then that Tim Geithner would be unveiling his plan for banks at noon today (subsequently deferred a day), I wrote: “For next week, we think that ideally there would be a small pullback early Monday morning to be the pause that refreshes. Then the Bulls might press their bets, targeting the 913 area on the S&P. Gold was curiously quiet Friday and is perhaps awaiting details from the Geithner speech at noon ET on Monday before testing upside resistance around 930. Overcoming this level could see some real fireworks on the upside, and… Read more »