Cara's Commentary & Community Chat, Mon., Feb. 2, 2009

[8:28am ET] I think maybe the guys in yellow won. I know that most of the people at the party were not watching one of the TVs, including the giant screen we were standing beside in the courtyard where I live. Most of the talk was of Liverpool and Arsenal and Man U. But, then, as I remarked to my friends, we were rather an eclectic group, from Ireland, Scotland, England, India, Germany, Spain, Holland, Colombia, somewhere in Africa, the US and of course Canada. I am sure I missed two or three countries in that small group of about a dozen of us. Yes, we are the world, and there we were, on Super Bowl Sunday, talking English football, but mostly just talking. Did I hear Obama


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bigwad1
bigwad1
February 3, 2009 8:50 pm

This is pretty close to back dating, but the bankers make the laws, so I’m convinced it’s business as usual. Pretty soon reporting executive’s compensation won’t be required. It’s coming. Why even save these banks? Let them go bankrupt and send those banker crooks to Guantanamo Bay for and extended vacation!!!!! Every other greedy banker will follow the lead until it’s billions of dollars instead of millions. Next year they will be granting delayed stock option bonus’s for 1999, or what ever year they pull out of the hat. Thank the writer for forensic accounting DD. The compensation was in… Read more »

Craig
Craig
February 3, 2009 1:08 pm

I’m a dog trainer and I can confirm, old dogs learn faster than old bankers….by far. Dogs are loyal, honest and hard working.

Bankers are none of those things. That’s why bankers aren’t man’s best friend.

Bull Hunter
Bull Hunter
February 3, 2009 12:37 pm

Good morning.

Price Targets Lowered:

AMAT – from $15 to $14 @ Wunderlich
FSLR – from $229 to $209 @ Argus
XOM – from $95 to $90 @ Argus

Luggie
Luggie
February 3, 2009 12:10 pm

This one will see some nice action today – not sure how to play a nice news release at open or later. Happy Trading

NYUGrad
NYUGrad
February 3, 2009 6:27 am

http://tinyurl.com/arepxo “UBS AG, the Swiss bank under investigation for allegedly helping wealthy Americans evade taxes, hired more than 200 brokers in the U.S. in the fourth quarter as it sought to counter client defections. UBS hired a team of five in Dallas from Goldman Sachs Group Inc. with $4 billion under management, and a group of the same number from Morgan Stanley in Houston with $2.1 billion in assets, Karina Byrne, a spokeswoman for the Zurich-based bank, said in an interview yesterday. The largest Swiss bank lured employees from those and other competitors by offering signing bonuses of as much… Read more »

swissrobinson
swissrobinson
Reply to  NYUGrad
February 3, 2009 7:38 am

So if I understand correctly, UBS will pay an excessive amount of money to purchase brokers and their capital under management because their other brokers lost them a ridiculous amount of money.

Talk about the dog chasing its tail. What happens to the money under management when the clients realise their money has been put onto UBS’ books? hmmm… What would I do?

I should be warning off the family and friends from buying UBS on the local exchange. Wealth management tied to excessive payments to employees sounds like same old, same old.

jacksoo
jacksoo
Reply to  swissrobinson
February 3, 2009 8:06 am

Form an appropriate sentence to include the following words:

dog, new, can’t, teach, old, tricks

Johnny
Johnny
February 3, 2009 5:15 am

http://tinyurl.com/ajvrol Above is the link to “MINEWEB GOLD PRICE COMPETITION 2009 gold price estimates – High $1345, Year End $1172, Average $992 This year’s Mineweb gold price competition closed on Jan 31st with readers on average fairly bullish on the yellow metal’s price prospects for 2009. Author: Lawrence Williams Posted: Monday , 02 Feb 2009″ So, there you have it Dr. Cosa.. Gold will hit $1345 this year. Just buy and hold until it gets there and sell before it falls back to $1172 🙂 Just kidding you. It’s late and past my bed time. I figure your the resident… Read more »

Chickenpookie
Chickenpookie
February 3, 2009 3:36 am

Does look good…. Assuming the new energy policy doesn’t kill their profits.

Johnny
Johnny
February 3, 2009 3:20 am

I am tired of posting about this ETF, but I thought it was important to mention that todays UCO volume was 20,973,137 almost 5 Times the average volume of 4,280,250 (as posted on Yahoo).

I checked a few other petroleum ETF’s e.g. USO, OIL, ERX and they also had increased volume, but nothing like USO today.

I don’t know what to make of it. Perhaps Bill or one of the seasoned traders on this blog can offer a possible explanation.

Mark Barry
Mark Barry
February 3, 2009 3:19 am

I’m going to throw this one out here again. Anyone following V? It has had a nice run the last week or so. + 13.58% so far for my trade.
FD- also SOLD V about a 3 months ago @58 for a HUGE loss.

Chickenpookie
Chickenpookie
February 3, 2009 3:02 am

norm – Here’s the man with the plan

vinod
vinod
Reply to  Chickenpookie
February 3, 2009 3:19 am

plan is to buy put on DOG
David you may want to take a look at shorting DOG. i do not short any

brown-cal
brown-cal
February 3, 2009 2:59 am
Chickenpookie
Chickenpookie
Reply to  brown-cal
February 3, 2009 3:21 am

Everything needs to be taken in context. My question is if Daschle knew his limo service “gift?” was taxable, or if he made an honest mistake. He does bring big political capital with him, no doubt.

brown-cal
brown-cal
Reply to  Chickenpookie
February 3, 2009 3:50 am

When you read about the things that Daschle has done with his time since holding office (here) you think that he is the exact kind of person that Obama would want to keep out of this position. But this is after all a payback for Daschle’s help in the primaries (a payback of the legal variety).

2nd_ave
2nd_ave
February 3, 2009 2:46 am

if every rally for the last 4 months was a sell, i think we’re closing in on one that will be a buy…

2nd_ave
2nd_ave
February 3, 2009 1:16 am

http://tinyurl.com/arwmva

now that’s the first truly good suggestion i’ve heard from either party…

2nd_ave
2nd_ave
Reply to  2nd_ave
February 3, 2009 1:34 am

note that the proposal would apply to refinancing as well…that would jack up the value of those monkeys pretty quickly, IMO… “Officials said the GOP was coalescing behind a proposal designed to give banks an incentive to make loans at rates currently estimated at 4 percent to 4.5 percent. Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, which were seized by the federal government in September, would be required to purchase the mortgages once banks have made them to consumers. Officials said loans to credit-worthy borrowers on primary residences with a mortgage of up to $625,000 would qualify, including those seeking to refinance… Read more »

EDC
EDC
Reply to  2nd_ave
February 3, 2009 2:21 am

This GOP (my former party) idea is not a good idea. Even if it applied to refis… “Officials said loans to credit-worthy borrowers on primary residences with a mortgage of up to $625,000 would qualify, including those seeking to refinance their current loans.” Key phrase is credit worthy borrowers. We can artificially make rates to 1% on mortgages, the only people it would help are those who, #1 have a job or capacity to pay back, #2 credit worthy, #3 have that thing called equity in their home, #4 have reserves of cash (not as important in refis). This won’t… Read more »

brown-cal
brown-cal
Reply to  EDC
February 3, 2009 2:31 am

Another problem with a plan like this is that it essentially tempts a few lemmings to jump into the market with the hope of creating some short term demand. The ones that do jump are rewarded with a good mortgage on an overpriced home. In the long run they will have to watch their new home’s value turn south as the artificially low rates will not be sustained.

The other people who are hurt are people like me. I’m waiting for prices to revert to their norm and now I’ll have to wait longer.

Bill Cara
Bill Cara
February 3, 2009 12:50 am
Bill Cara
Bill Cara
February 3, 2009 12:04 am

A friend forwarded this to me: Once upon a time a man appeared in a village and announced to the villagers that he would buy monkeys for $10 each. The villagers, seeing that there were many monkeys around, went out to the forest and started catching them. The man bought thousands at $10 and, as supply started to diminish, the villagers stopped their effort. He next announced that he would now buy monkeys at $20 each. This renewed the efforts of the villagers and they started catching monkeys again. Soon the supply diminished even further and people started going back… Read more »

bigwad1
bigwad1
Reply to  Bill Cara
February 3, 2009 1:03 am

A true, down and dirty thief never gives up! Moral of the story is……Buy all the high powered rifles you can possibly afford and teach those monkeys to shoot with deadly accuracy at life size posters of those two banker type thieves. After a few months of relentlessly training from morning until night those monkeys will become the most reliable source for justice. Sooner or later the two thieves will come back for a second round of monkey business. All you have to do now is teach those monkeys to dig a 6′ whole. A thief is a thief is… Read more »

vinod
vinod
Reply to  bigwad1
February 3, 2009 1:22 am
FranSix
FranSix
Reply to  bigwad1
February 3, 2009 1:20 am

This is exactly it. We have 100’s of thousands of minkeys all typing at their computer screens. Its just a matter of time.

NYU Grad.

Hi, just wanted to share a link, thought it might be better to bet on those options and bet some on the stock itself. Here’s a link you might like:

http://www.leavittbrothers.com/chartspeak/

(I’m not a trader)

2nd_ave
2nd_ave
Reply to  Bill Cara
February 3, 2009 12:30 am

Bill- (a) I notice only the villagers who attempted to scam the first buyer ended up getting jammed up in return. Just further evidence of PT Barnum’s famous words. Those who rounded up the monkeys for $10 to $ 20 each and saved/invested the money are still OK. (b) It takes serious capital to play that game. The scam involves an outlay of about half the amount one expects to rake in. (c) The monkeys can’t be entirely worthless, or the game doesn’t work. (d) So the hapless holders have a few options. They can use and/or sell the monkeys… Read more »

EDC
EDC
February 3, 2009 12:01 am

8000 is psychological support.

It has been brought to my attention that today was the third time that we have closed below 8000. If tomorrow closes below 8000 the beating will pick up. If not it will be delayed. I don’t believe there will be an Obama rally until everyone swears off stocks. The call put ratio is to bullish for that.

Gold seems to have topped for a while too… 91% bullish survey. Who is left to buy? last time it got this high was the last major top months ago.

Stay nimble and use stops.

Johnny
Johnny
Reply to  EDC
February 3, 2009 2:13 am

EDC, 8000 is psychiatric support…

holdenll
holdenll
February 2, 2009 11:31 pm

The following are stocks I am watching. May add COF tomorrow. PM added today.

I reiterate: watching.

Longs: COF, MEOH, HIT (need to review new financials first), DDUP, THO, PDS, TISI, HUGH

Short: STEM, GERN, SNTA

purchased PM today…see earlier post.

Grym
Grym
February 2, 2009 11:07 pm
NYUGrad
NYUGrad
February 2, 2009 10:50 pm

1st i want to apologize to experts here who can read charts like reading the time on your watch. the vertical lines on the attached and boxes are making me dizzy too. but its just the way my novice eyes read the charts at this stage in the game. So i had the trigger on 100% allocation on April GG calls but didnt make the bet. big bet on Red at the roulette table i know. And looking at the attached chart it is evident to me (please slap me if i am seeing things), that each time GG penetrated… Read more »

FranSix
FranSix
Reply to  NYUGrad
February 2, 2009 10:59 pm

I would pare down RSI “crossings and sightings” down to +70 and -30. Once the RSI crosses below 30, you watch on the weekly chart for the crossing above that level. As for the 70, you watch as it goes over 70 and get a typical sell signal when it drops below. But I would depend on the weekly chart. A monthly chart would confirm the end or the beginning of the trend. Note that the G.TO chart is forming a very large inverted head and shoulders pattern. One should be able to visibly make out the same on the… Read more »

NYUGrad
NYUGrad
Reply to  FranSix
February 2, 2009 11:03 pm

THANK YOU! I often have no idea when i post my mickey mouse charts, if it adds value to others or to me as i rarely get feedback. thank you FranSix.

You can clearly see the inverted head and shoulders on GG traded in U.S too.

I got burned on SOL on the inverted h&s so i didnt put much credit to it. Formed from Dec 08 forward.
http://tinyurl.com/dk6tdj

NYUGrad
NYUGrad
February 2, 2009 10:03 pm

get your chips ready and place your bets. I can almost hear the sound of the slots machines.

http://tinyurl.com/aou5s3
“WASHINGTON — Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner will give a speech next week in which he will outline the Obama administration’s financial-rescue plans, according to a Treasury official.

The plan will include an effort to help homeowners in danger of foreclosure, as well as additional steps to shore up the financial sector.”

Johnny
Johnny
Reply to  NYUGrad
February 2, 2009 11:02 pm

I can feel the suspense building. I sure hope the market rises on the news until Geithner’s speech next week, so those 3X bear funds will be a tad less expensive.

NYUGrad
NYUGrad
February 2, 2009 10:52 pm

“California delays $3.5B in payments.”
http://tinyurl.com/ck2gyh

I should really file asap as NJ is also cashless. damn this is getting crazy. They better pay me 9% interest for any delays on my tax return.

Mark Barry
Mark Barry
Reply to  NYUGrad
February 3, 2009 2:38 am

NYUGrad- We will get 5% in CA. Instead of cash payments, how about setting up an automatic DRIP program to buy CA bonds instead! Wouldn’t that be the fastest way to roll this whole thing over to my kids?

NYUGrad
NYUGrad
Reply to  Mark Barry
February 3, 2009 2:47 am

that is wild! thanks for sharing and i hope you get your refund asap.

At this point i feel like i should go back to my employer and ask for payment in gold, not usd.

Johnny
Johnny
Reply to  NYUGrad
February 2, 2009 10:58 pm

Hey NYU, maybe they will give you fractional shares in a NJ municiple bond fund. If they can’t pay the money, they can simply issue more debt.

NYUGrad
NYUGrad
Reply to  Johnny
February 2, 2009 11:43 pm

I would get a lawyer and sue. that is the American way.

NYUGrad
NYUGrad
February 2, 2009 9:48 pm

http://tinyurl.com/bs65g2
“Madoff Feeder Sues Own Auditors for Not Finding Fraud (Update2)
By Thom Weidlich

Feb. 2 (Bloomberg) — A Maxam Capital Management LLC fund that placed all of its $280 million in holdings with alleged Ponzi-scheme mastermind Bernard Madoff sued its own auditors for not detecting the fraud at his New York investment firm.”

vanillabean
vanillabean
Reply to  NYUGrad
February 2, 2009 10:17 pm

Yep, all the lawyers will get the remaining assets.

It is starting to seem to me that all of these crooks were living in Conn —

“MAXAM had been headed by Sandra Manzke

The other day, Manzke told The Wall Street Journal she had put every dime with Madoff and had been wiped out. Yet Barrons business magazine did a laudatory profile of her not long ago where she boasted of her careful, diverse investments. Ahem.”

Here is more of the article:
http://www.projo.com/home/content/Mark21_12-21-08_

Johnny
Johnny
Reply to  vanillabean
February 2, 2009 11:19 pm

Vanilla, what an eye opening article. I had no clue stuff like this was going on. Shouldn’t all of this she-nan-i-gans have been open for scrutiny based upon the prospectus and quarterly/annual reports these people should have sent to their clients? How do funds “manage” millions and billions of dollars by placing much or even all of it with other funds, so they in effect do nothing but collect a cut of the “winnings”, all without any disclosure to their clients? It must be legal right? The SEC approves of this sort of thing. Perhaps there is no regulation that… Read more »

NotNekkidYet
NotNekkidYet
Reply to  Johnny
February 2, 2009 11:37 pm

Whatever you do, don’t read Mish’s expose’ on Wells Fargo today…it could send you over the top.

David
David
February 2, 2009 9:45 pm

I was out shopping today and missed today’s action in UCO. So I am placing a buy limit order for tomorrow at $9.5.

Johnny
Johnny
Reply to  David
February 2, 2009 10:55 pm

Good luck with UCO David. It has been so nice to me for so long that it’s hard to break the addiction. But today was particularly wild. I’ve started the search for a new best trade.

David
David
Reply to  Johnny
February 3, 2009 3:12 am

Thanks, Johnny. When looking for the next best trade, take a look at BTU — I think it will be very strong until its next quarterly report three months from now. I already sold some February puts on BTU, and once they expire (hopefully), I’ll sell more puts on it. In the meantime, I’ll be scaling into ACI on weakness and scaling out on strength.

Johnny
Johnny
Reply to  David
February 3, 2009 3:52 am

Thank you David. I have looked at ACI and BTU before. But now it’s more serious because I have to find another trade. BTU fundamentals & volatility are reasonable. Interest coverage is a bit on the low side 6.4 vs 26.9 for the industry. I assume that affects volatility. Of course UCO doesn’t have those stats. But there is one other thing. I can follow a lot of stats on the oils. For example WTI (near live feeds) vs NYMEX futures. I can get the tanker news. Geopolitical events have an effect. But the crazy DJIA isn’t an overriding factor,… Read more »

David
David
Reply to  Johnny
February 3, 2009 5:39 am

Johnny, I suggested BTU because I think it has seen its bottom already, and so now you can trade it without reading ANY news at all, simply by scaling in on the way down and scaling out on the way up (that’s what I am planning to do). Here is a price chart for Central Appalachian Coal Futures: http://www.eia.doe.gov/cneaf/coal/page/nymex/nymex… However, the short-term correlation with BTU stock price is not very high. Interestingly, SLX (steel ETF) has a very high correlation with BTU/ACI, presumably because a large part of coal is used in steel mills. But I think another reason for… Read more »

NYUGrad
NYUGrad
February 2, 2009 9:39 pm

Another way to reduce their overhead and dish out a paycut via commissions/bonus; as everyone knows no one will achieve this new 09 Sales plan.

looking forward to the day i can sail my own boat and not have to depend on other boat owners for the fish i eat.

Most would say i am lucky to be employed. And I am, for now. but i cannot wait until i can remove these shackles and trade full time and be able to sustain my living expenses and then some.

Chickenpookie
Chickenpookie
February 2, 2009 9:03 pm

I don’t think we’ll see any big rally until Congress stops waffling around on Obama’s stimulus, they’re going to have to make some difficult decisions on what to do with banks. No ETA yet?

yvrapx
yvrapx
Reply to  Chickenpookie
February 2, 2009 10:19 pm

CP bank ETA has been apparently pushed out until next week. Obam’s stimuluos package by most accounts is underwhelming, it is a package that back end loads the funds and puts little to work in the near term and with the ‘BUY USA’ moniker makes things quite precarious with it’s trading partners. Check out a former Nobel prize winners’ prescription for the Brit banks:
http://tinyurl.com/c44727