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Screwed the pooch? That’s not the winner.
Read this jewel at Ron’s site: “It’s ‘The Godfather’ all over again, “one lawyer with a briefcase can steal more than ten men with guns.”
Don’t ever forget it either.
All these chumps in Washington and Wall Street? Yep…lawyers, the common denominator is a zero.
CP, you might find this interesting:
Was staring at GLD and SPY daily charts and saw something curious. I downloaded the daily closing prices going back to Dec. 1, 2008 and calculated correlations
SPY vs GLD -0.59
SPY vs GLD (9 day lag) -0.78
Curious. Didn’t dig too much deeper into it.
http://ronsen.blogspot.com/2009/04/currency-events…
Fox Business News video has jumped on the William Black bandwagon. Questioning whether Geithner participating in massive fraud.
This growing into something?
Watch your FAS(s) today…
http://tinyurl.com/dnzmm7
What I heard is some people are between 3 to 4 months late on their mortgage but the lenders have not yet filed an Notice of Default (NOD). Usually banks file after the first month late ,but it is a usual trend where banks are not filing the NOD to get the foreclosure process started. This is obvious that they don’t want to show these bad assets on their books.
So near term is better for FAS
http://www.rediff.com/money/2004/aug/19tata.htm
By the end of April, we will issue a Hotel code number to quote. Please do not make enquiries or reservtions before then. At this point all I am trying to do is tie down the dates.
TOF- What’s your reasoning behind shorting MOS? I have a med. sized position in SQM. TIA
hey mark – i actually closed out of my position at the beginning of the day…i’m only sticking to day/couple day trades right now, although i did begin a starter position in FRX that i hope to hold for a longer period.
I believe MOS actually might have some upside room long term…just thought it was due for a little pullback given that the market looked toppy and so too did commodities/etc.
TOF- Thanks, Man. More often than not when you post, things look the same to me. MOS EPS Q1 went from 1.13 to .24 lately. Yes, they missed bad last quarter but who didn’t. I actually hope for a miss as an buy opportunity. SQM, I believe, is a more balanced play. More diverse mineral profile and long term play (for others) in Lithium.
MOS seems to be in a good spot long term. I just don’t know enough about the whole potash industry to justify this for sure. What exactly does SQM do? How does their balance sheet look? For now I’m only sticking with companies that have great balance sheets if I want to hold for a longer term than a couple of days. I really like FRX and BA in this regard.
Has anyone got or by any chance recall a book titled The Tao of the Dow?
my Ameritrade streamer shows:
FAZ up 5.38% today
FAS down 6.39% today
1% difference, hmmmmm
Bear E
Did a number of screens for deep value (and various technical indicators) on Thursday night last week and came up with eight of interest for my fun account. Rejected one of them on gut-feeling, and sprinkled some cash into the other 7 at the open, Friday. 6 of the seven are flat since entry. One, GU, went crazy, mid-day on Friday:
http://finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=GU&ta=0&p=d
The rejected one?
http://finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=say&ta=0&p=d
Ugh 🙁
“Did a number of screens for deep value (and various technical indicators) on Thursday night last week and came up with eight of interest for my fun account.”
SGIC would’ve been a nice home run…
I’m sure everyone else is way ahead of me on this, but I’ve just discovered it. Going back in time to places from your past via Street View is a rush. My childhood home in a Pittsburgh township has been razed, gone. The high school across the brick road, however, is still there and barely changed after 50 years. Down cement steps, behind steel doors is undoubtedly still the pool where a lifeguard saved me from drifting (strangely unconcerned) forever into the deep end (I was either 5 or 6 years old at the time, and had somehow ended up… Read more »
5-ways to scam the new bailout:
http://www.businessinsider.com/5-ways-to-scam-the-…
I have launched a 3.5X pair of ETFs. Although they are doing quite well, I should also apply for a bailout and get some leverage!
Every time I see that photo, I’m left wishing I had an audio link to what’s happening.
What are the odds of embedding audio/voice links (when appropriate) in photos?
I like the last minute comeback too.
But story can change quickly. Trying not to think, just trading what i see. also been working on my “if-then” scenarios on each trade before i buy anything.
Look at the volume on the Cara 100 when I post tomorrow. There were almost none that exceeded the average daily volume. Trading today was unusually quiet, which means that HB&B algo programs were shut down, since they do maybe 40% of all trading these days.
Humungous Bank & Broker: It would appear Bill you may soon have to change this title as the whole bunch of them together are now worth about as much as 100 shares of Enron……….
Lori, that is too funny.
btw, you are quite photogenic as the community will see if you permit us to show them from the conference. I know you had a blast.
LOL… NSHAB&B? As in Not So Humongous Anymore…?
ALOHA !! The Ford news is uplifting, especially for its share price. Buried in this uplifting news is this … “In the credit default swaps market, where investors bet on a company’s creditworthiness, the cost of protecting $10 million of Ford’s senior bonds for five-years dropped to $6.4 million plus a $500,000 annual fee, according to CMA DataVision. On Friday, it cost investors $6.63 million plus the $500,000 annual fee.”END Who will pay $7mil to a questionably solvent counterparty to insure $10mil? So with all this good news comes a drop of 3.5% on CDS rates … I am not… Read more »
RE:>hey were so cool…they sound like a sewing machine and lean going around corners
I saw one turning hard into a corner on the weekend. Thought it was going to fall over – shoddy suspension or some such thing.
Anyone traveling to Paris can hire a duck for touring the city with.
Kaimu –
Tata Industries is what happens when your gov’t controls the money flows of big national industry through a decidedly socialist agenda: Large capitalistic endeavors consolidate into one big monopoly for the people. That’s why J.J. Irani, the retired President and long time Director of Tata, was conferred honorary knighthood by Elizabeth II, Queen of England, in ’97, for his work in advancing Indian diplomacy with the Anglo Saxons. Imagine Elizabeth knighting an American CEO for cultural achievement?!
Tata is big. Real big. Few can fathom just how big.
Cheers.
American cousin of my dad, CEO knighted for his philanthropic endeavors by the Queen.
Dr. Strangelove, I am beginning to organize a closed-end fund for India companies. Tata will certainly be there as will several others in the Cara 100.
Bill –
There is perhaps no other company in the world that can match the human resources available to Tata. But its profit motive is easily impaired by gov’t meddling.
Property rights, for instance, are not strong in India and so ownership is viewed as dubious. Can be a tricky wicket but growth potential is there.
Cheers.
Just information
Tata is not a Hindu or Muslim or Buddha. He is a the present-day Parsis descend from a group of Iranian Zoroastrians who emigrated to Western India over 1,000 years ago. The long presence in the region distinguishes the Parsis from the Iranis, who are more recent arrivals, and who represent the smaller of the two Indian-Zoroastrian communities
They left or leaving Iran because of religious prosecution
Interesting. I had no idea Tata was Parsi. I knew a Parsi in grad school, who told me there are only 350,000 now in total.
The Parsi ancestors were ancient Persian fire temple worshipers. They ghettoized themselves much like Eastern European Jews to preserve their customs and culture. Their business accumen approches early 20th century Western money thought. They are riveled only by a few Chinese sects. It has always amazed me how different cultures try to adapt to the money thought of a prevailing dominate civilization. Egyptians tried with some success to adapt to the Greco/Roman coin system circa 300BC through 400AD. Still they beat the coins into clumps of metal and exchanged them as weighted wares. Today, Russians pretend to understand Western money… Read more »
kaimu, another great blog. You are outstanding! Earlier today I decided to give you your own page here because when pressed for time I would go there. Thank you for everything. I just need to get Jeff to work it out.
ALOHA !! I appreciate that Bill … Thanks and Mahalo! I will publish my entire PPT slides(three slides and I only had time for one)and text from the presentation at the CTAB 2009, since I owe that to the participants for trying to give a one hour presentation in less than 30 minutes! I think I realized that about five minutes in! Oopps … I last spoke publicly 38 years ago on THE VIETNAM WAR DOMINO THEORY, so my timing was way off … HA!! Hummmmm??? I guess I will have to consult with the “timing experts” Vad and Pascal!… Read more »
Thanks Bill, you take a pretty good photograph yourself – btw permission granted to post mine! You also have my permission to put up the one I sent of you, Michael and Geoff if you wish – I did have a total blast, looking forward to next years event already. Although I don’t truly see how it could possibly be improved somehow I know you and your team will make every effort.
Kaimu,
TATAs sell their trucks in Asia, Africa & even China. They are quite good in that business besides steel, cement, IT and other interests (its a well run company overall). Actually Nano opens a new segment. At USD 2K, even with high import tariffs etc, it could be a car for the masses in africa & SE Asia. Its visioned to be a replacement for the bikes, so if that vision visualizes, this product could be adding quite a chunk to revenues of Tata Motors (maybe 4 or 5 years down the line).
it wasnt a bullish segment by any means but her bearishness was a little more muted than usual.
http://tinyurl.com/d26rdc
EDIT: There is a video on that link, for you non readers like myself.
Any real interest of having the conference in South Florida as once mentioned? It might be cheaper for the average person to fly to Miami or Ft Lauderdale rather than into Nassau.
I recall the possibility of looking into the addition of Web conferencing, most likely limited to certain presentations. If this is the case, then scheduling events during weekend/holiday hours would undoubtedly increase participation.
Re: Web conferencing for Cara Bahamas 2010 Conference, this is definitely a go. I first need to organize the expert who will make it happen. But we will make it happen.
We may get that for another day or two, before we take off. Hopefully going up, and not down 😉
Vinod- Has your uneasiness subsided?
2nd
With retailing stocks up 30%
Leisure/accommodation up 35
And the homebuilders up 40%, the market is priced, amazingly, for a revival that is led by the consumer
Up very good so far and this time not going to give back anything
It is possible that I may be late to the party. I still feel the downside risks are too high to be involved.
There are buyers and sellers at every moment, each with (nearly) opposite motivations or perceptions
and to short REITs or financials is a Scary business these days.
Upcoming auctions of long-term securities this week.
Treasuries Close Lower Amid Supply Concerns
8 minutes ago
– Treasuries moved to the downside over the course of the trading on Monday, as investors considered supply factors in the bond market amid record sales of government-backed debt. After seeing some strength early on amid a sell-off on Wall Street, the benchmark ten-year note steadily ceded ground, moving into negative territory in the afternoon. The yield on the note closed at 2.941 percent, an increase of 3.4 basis points on the day….
http://news.ino.com/headlines/?newsid=40620091106
One out of 3, TNA filled @ 19.96. Man, volumes bad across the board.
Edit 1/2 off @ 20.60.
On Friday, I covered 10 contracts of FAS $5 April short puts, extracting 90% gain from the trade and freeing up my buying power. Today, a little while ago, I sold 10 contracts of FAS $6 May puts at $1.25. I decided to fight ultra-ETFs using their own weapon — volatility. That is, if they are so volatile, then I’ll try to make all my entries into them via selling puts first. And if those shares don’t get assigned to me, then I’ll still be making a 20% gain in a month for the cash I put aside (using the… Read more »
David, I would do some research on the likes of FAS, et. al., because they do not priced or behave in any way like an ordinary stock or option. Even the people who created them say in the prospectus that they are intended for day trading. A good place to start might be http://adamsoptions.blogspot.com/. A month or so ago, they went in to a lot of detail on them. Another place is TheStreet.com as they also had numerous highly detailed articles explaining the dangers.
Good luck on those…
Thanks, jmorris1950. I have been observing ultra-longs for some time now (and analyzing them in my mind and on spreadsheets) and I think I have a reasonably good understanding of the risks involved. But thanks again for the warning…
David has “plenty” of experience with the ultra’s. Most good.
I took FAZ for a walk in the park overnight, also picked up some UXG today at 1.96.
David- Well, it’s hard to find positions that trigger the fight-or-flight reaction more easily than the 3x ETFs. To the best of my recollection(s), you were the first person in the ethernet to model/post the time/volatility decay inherent in 2x ETFs.
Pz- Good luck. I’ve tried taking her for an overnight ride, only to have it end up the other way around 😉
Options on leveraged ETFs perform significantly worse than options on the underlyings. Thus, selling options on leveraged ETFs should in theory be a better deal than options on the underlyings. So, as such, selling options on them it’s an interesting concept. The problem is that the option puts forces the writer to buy the underlying, and buying the underlying is a very bad idea as most of the money disappears. Given that by far the vast majority of money disappears from leveraged ETFs for anyone who holds overnight (80 to 96% loss), it would be interesting to see what is… Read more »
“The problem is that the option puts forces the writer to buy the underlying, and buying the underlying is a very bad idea as most of the money disappears.”
SiO2, I think the above statement is a bit too extreme. I made a post in the “Saturday Chat” section at 20:06 which demonstrated how one can get a better absolute dollar gain for a smaller level of risk when trading ultra-longs in comparison to the underlying index. Did you find any logical errors there?
david, yes, that can work in a trending environment. The 2x natural gas ETFs are working as a pair trade here in Canada, but you know what is happening with natural gas. However, all others are losing. If you get the direction right, yes you can benefit from compounding. The thing is the odds. The bigger issue is that the vast majority of the money disappears (actually, it does go to someone :-)). FAS/FAZ’s loss stand today at $4.724B out of the initial $6.4B valuation. http://nexalogic.com/fasfazloss-o-meter.html Those are very, very bad odds. If you bet on the direction right, it… Read more »
SiO2, I don’t think the total loss in FAS/FAZ is very representative of what will happen in the future. The financials took a huge hit in January/February, and hence FAS lost A LOT. If financials stabilize or even trend up slowly from now on, then FAS can in fact increase over time. FAZ will obviously be experiencing a HUGE decline each year (I would say falling at least 90% for the year) regardless of the market action.
2nd
tight leash on it as always.
Anymore, overnight is an investment. :’)
I like that statement “overnight is an investment”
is this an inverse head and shoulders pattern forming?
http://tinyurl.com/ccosgl
here is a comparison chart from stockcharts.com explanation of Inverse Head & shoulders patterns.
http://tinyurl.com/dl9myf
“is this an inverse head and shoulders pattern forming?
http://tinyurl.com/ccosgl“
Good eye. Compare to the chart from a year ago that I showed during first session in Nassau: http://www.realitytrader.com/NQ%20daily.png
If there is a connection, I am happy to see you are immediately applying what you saw. If there is not, good eye anyway.
“I like that statement ‘overnight is an investment'”
Sounds a lot like spending the night is a commitment 😉
Given the decay properties of FAS, I’m not sure how reliable chart patterns would be. But there seems to be a muted version of it setting up on XLF-> high volume spike above 10 might do it.
“Sounds a lot like spending the night is a commitment”
Definitely, you must be willing to gnaw your arm off the next morning as well.
CP
Your right.
Hoping not to have a case of “Coyote Love” tomorrow AM. LOL