Cara's Commentary & Community Chat, Fri., Jan. 30, 2009

[8:05am ET] Humungous Bank & Broker (HB&B) has paid out a total of $18.4 billion in bonuses for 2008, the sixth largest payout ever, in a year where they took clients to the largest financial losses in modern history, and also shortly after the ex-Treasury Secretary


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tango6
tango6
February 2, 2009 1:28 pm

“Spike down in the morning following overseas, then an abrupt turnaround following the NAPM report. XLB’s charts since Monday, 26th on the one, five minute and 60 min scales are showing what I’d call a bottom.”

Would that be a big bottom or a little bottom? I mean, do you see a multi-day bull rally beginning today?

Craig
Craig
February 2, 2009 1:28 pm

All this from the home of American fries?

Maybe, just maybe, the trouble is the view *outside* SF and California.
Perhaps those outside should think about how limiting their POV is.
There are TWO sides to every observation, right?

As someone born in California (So. Cal.)and then moved to Washington in the 70’s, I see both sides and they both have some merit….but it is true that as California goes, so goes the nation, sooner or later.

tango6
tango6
February 2, 2009 1:23 pm

Thanks for your thoughts, and your concern for a fellow trader, on GERN. It looked bullish to me – I liked the recent gap up on good volume when the rest of the market was swooning. It’s above MAs (except the 5 hour) and that was a 3mo high it posted. My MACD is bullish but the RSI isn’t. Anyway, I don’t really want to be long anything right now except some form of au & ag. If I do take that girl out, I guarantee it will be only on a short exploratory date.

Again, multitnx.

Bull Hunter
Bull Hunter
February 2, 2009 1:13 pm

Good morning from Pennsylvania, home of the Super Bowl Champion Pittsburgh Steelers.

SNDK – Coverage Initiated @ Auriga U.S.A. with a Sell. Price Target = $8

mikede
mikede
February 2, 2009 1:02 pm

The Teachers steps up to complain about poor managment at Petrocan.
http://gold.globeinvestor.com/servlet/ArticleNews/

Ron Sen
Ron Sen
February 2, 2009 11:28 am
NYUGrad
NYUGrad
February 2, 2009 12:49 pm

DJ 7869
Nasdaq 1476
S&P 814
as of 2:32am eastern
http://tinyurl.com/28u232

Asia overnight
http://tinyurl.com/a8qvjq

Gold Global Spot price down from Friday NY close
http://tinyurl.com/cq41
$908.50
as of 2:35 am Eastern

EDIT: If we see a lot of volatility and looks like we will with round 2 of stimulus planning, it may be the opportunity i need to get back into gold.

David
David
February 2, 2009 4:12 am

Some instinct is telling me to be a little more conservative with buying ACI now. So I canceled my buy limit order at $14.50 and moved the other one to $14.25.

jock
jock
February 2, 2009 3:51 am

Just before the close on Jan. 27, ECU Silver (an emerging producer) announced a “bought deal financing” with units priced at C$0.70. Each unit consists of 1 share plus 1 five-year warrant at 0.95. For 18 trading days, ECU had stayed above 0.77. Since the announcement, the stock has fallen to 0.59. – a loss of 23% in market cap. What happened? I don’t know, but have a good guess. If you were a hedge fund manager who held the stock, you probably got an early indication of the financing and its terms. If you were holding stock at or… Read more »

jock
jock
February 2, 2009 3:41 am

Just before the close on Jan. 27, ECU Silver (an emerging producer) announced a “bought deal financing” with units priced at C$0.70. Each unit consists of 1 share plus 1 five-year warrant at 0.95. For 18 trading days, ECU had stayed above 0.77. Since the announcement, the stock has fallen to 0.59. – a loss of 23% in market cap. What happened? I don’t know, but have a good guess. If you were a hedge fund manager who held the stock, you probably got an early indication of the financing and its terms. If you were holding stock at or… Read more »

jock
jock
February 2, 2009 3:35 am

Just before the close on Jan. 27, ECU Silver (an emerging producer) announced a “bought deal financing” with units priced at C$0.70. Each unit consists of 1 share plus 1 five-year warrant at 0.95. For 18 trading days, ECU had stayed above 0.77. Since the announcement, the stock has fallen to 0.59. – a loss of 23% in market cap. What happened? I don’t know, but have a good guess. If you were a hedge fund manager who held the stock, you probably got an early indication of the financing and its terms. If you were holding stock at or… Read more »

NYUGrad
NYUGrad
February 2, 2009 3:37 am

…to throw into amendments to the Stimulus passed last week. I like the idea. it’s a start. but i also think people who have not missed a payment in the past 24 months or more, to be awarded 2% fixed 30 yr. and those in foreclosure but can show income etc, 4% fixed 30 yr. Then people with homes can either A) pay down their homes quicker, or B) use the extra cash to save/spend/invest. The tax credit works like an interest-free loan and must be repaid over a 15-year period. repayments start in 2010 at $500 per month. the… Read more »

Mark Barry
Mark Barry
February 2, 2009 2:51 am

Not much comment from the group regarding this “provision” in the stimulus package. Seems to me this would be the fastest way to convert this recession into a depression. This is Obama’s best chance to show the world that business as usual here is over. 2nd?
Casino was packed last night. Much more than usual for super bowl. I agree with Bill’s feeling that Americans understand where we are and are ready to move forward.

2nd_ave
2nd_ave
Reply to  Mark Barry
February 2, 2009 4:48 am

Mark- When I hear “Buy American,” it takes me back to the 1974-82 recession. I’m not an economist, but from a common sense perspective, I would be inclined to argue against it as I think it would: (a) invite retaliation…one of many examples that occurs to me is whether voluntary agreements that protect intellectual property would continue to be honored…very little stands in the way of illegal copying/reproduction of software, textbooks, film, music, or branded products as it is; once we start limiting free trade, it may go by the wayside.. (b) reward inefficiency…what incentive would high-cost producers in the… Read more »

seadog
seadog
Reply to  2nd_ave
February 2, 2009 9:55 am

All protectionism has ever done is increase costs for the country that’s trying to protect its citizens/markets/companies…. artificial barriers never work, never, unless you’re a short term porker. More robbing Peter to pay Paul. Just look at Europe’s food subsidies which simply increase the cost and decrease the quality of food in Europe.

Mark Barry
Mark Barry
Reply to  2nd_ave
February 2, 2009 5:34 am

Thanks 2nd. Isn’t this the time then stop this nonsense about American jobs being shipped over seas? Not the time to let the world know we are their trading partners and friends? There was an interesting, although scary, article in the SF Chronicle explaining that the City would be able to buy new buses with money available from the stimulus package. “As for the possibility that much of that money might land over seas, where Muni and AC Transit have purchased potions of their fleet in the past? Not to worry, locals tell us -every dime has a ‘buy American’… Read more »

omphalos
omphalos
Reply to  Mark Barry
February 2, 2009 11:47 am

Mark, this shouldn’t be construed as personal attack, any more than the same criticism I’ll also make of 2nd_Ave. It’s more of a big Yes, But… I gather the two of you live in the Bay Area. I did too, for 10+ years. ’92 -04. Lived in India for a spell, then SW Ohio for two years. I’m now in Seattle. SF’s weltanschauung (if I may be so pedagogical) and its newspaper, the Chronicle, are so out of kilter with the ideals and practicalities of the majority of the other states in our union as to be laughable and indeed… Read more »

Johnny
Johnny
Reply to  omphalos
February 2, 2009 1:55 pm

omphalos – It’s going to be a resounding spike if it happens with the DJIA alread -116 and the S&P future @808. I didn’t need that coffee this morning!

jock
jock
February 2, 2009 2:15 am

Peter Thiel in Davos suggests in 2009, US$ and yen will strengthen, that UK is the worst country to invest in on the planet. Doesn’t matter if he’s right, just that we think about it …

http://tinyurl.com/aezku8

NYUGrad
NYUGrad
February 2, 2009 1:07 am
NYUGrad
NYUGrad
February 2, 2009 12:56 am

wont this make USD stronger temporarily?
below is excerpt from the Econoday weekly:

The Reserve Bank of Australia meets for the first time in two months this week and is expected to resume its series of interest rate cuts. Its key interest rate is currently 4.25 percent. The Bank of England also is expected to cut rates again this week, this time to 1 percent from its current 1.5 percent level. However, the European Central Bank, despite the spate of negative economic data, is expected to leave its interest rate unchanged at 2 percent.

Bill Cara
Bill Cara
February 2, 2009 12:47 am

Spilled some kind of sauce on my sweater, so came in to change. Had to check the site. Saw this link. I wrote about it a week ago, but labeled it incorrectly at the time. http://tinyurl.com/ck455m btw, there are maybe 30 people here at the Super Bowl party and maybe 3 are watching the game. The neighbors have set up massive TV’s, BBQ’s, open bar, etc. I’m still trying to figure out who is playing. Most of the people here are fans of European soccer, and are using Super Bowl as an excuse to party. I think some of them… Read more »

David
David
February 1, 2009 11:46 pm

As I mentioned back in September, when I just started trading WGW, that I will be buying it mindlessly on the way down in fixed increments and selling mindlessly on the way up (so as to take advantage of all its fluctuations) until it rises above $2. Now WGW is at $2, and it is no longer an obvious value. So I’ll just keep my core position in it (currently 6% of my portfolio at a cost basis of $1.5) and let it run. As a new “money pump”, I’ll now start trading ACI/BTU, setting buy limit orders on the… Read more »

jock
jock
February 1, 2009 11:01 pm

http://tinyurl.com/dagh8o

Not just hillarious; a brilliant basis for a campaign to attract gen-x-ers to trading ….

Johnny
Johnny
Reply to  jock
February 1, 2009 11:18 pm

I luv it!

Johnny
Johnny
February 1, 2009 8:15 pm
NYUGrad
NYUGrad
February 1, 2009 7:31 pm

Not sure if i can wait for CTAB Bahamas to raise my hand to ask this question.

i think i now have a novice grip on using rsi, stochastics, macd, & volume, to time the big moves and sentiment/momentum.

But what combination of indicators and or time series are favored for when rsi, stoch are not oversold or overbought?

Would it be prudent to add rsi-2 into the mix? thanks in advance.

ie charts of gld and gg
http://tinyurl.com/d95p97
http://tinyurl.com/b2dvbx

seadog
seadog
Reply to  NYUGrad
February 1, 2009 11:10 pm

“But what combination of indicators and or time series are favored for when rsi, stoch are not oversold or overbought?” People write whole books to cover this subject so expect many answers. To my mind it really depends on your strategy, ie are you trading trends, reversals or breakouts. There is no one perfect indicator for all these strategies however RSI is generally a good indicator for all strategies, not perfect for any one but good across all three. RSI can be useful in trends if used with moving averages. In trending markets I use a combination of RSI and… Read more »

Fox1
Fox1
February 1, 2009 7:27 pm

I spent several hours this morning reviewing the 680 page American Recovery and Reinvestment Act passed by the House (my besetting curiosity is sometimes a curse). This is not law yet, but if you think government is big now, just wait! My purpose was to find potential investment opportunities. For example, what companies might benefit from the $1,000,000,000 proposed for the manufacturing of advanced batteries or the $1,825,000,000 set aside for broadband deployment? Pages 97-109 outline how the Department of Energy will deploy its $18,500,000,000 on renewable energy. Transparency and oversight requirements stipulate that each Federal agency shall publish on… Read more »

tango6
tango6
February 1, 2009 6:57 pm

I do not own or have anything to do with MBPP. Know nothing about their management, market cap, prospects, etc. Same for GERN – know nothing about them, or want to. Like somebody said, don’t marry stocks, just date them. You don’t need to know much to date a girl, just watch the way they move.

Vadym Graifer
Vadym Graifer
Reply to  tango6
February 1, 2009 10:13 pm

tango, I know you said you don’t want to know anything about GERN, and “don’t marry the stock” is my motto… but I thought I’d share what I know about the way it moves anyway – no to marry it by any means but to be prepared for when it starts moving again, and IMO at some point it will. First thing to remember about this stock – it’s a serial disappointer. At no point in its history it held the highs for any prolonged period of time. That said, at no point did it see the times when the… Read more »

mntinhi
mntinhi
February 1, 2009 6:53 pm

gld,dbs,DGL,BVN dzz, all positions are small, if and when gold starts to correct, sell the gold and keep the dzz, after bottoming of gold, sell the dzz and double down on gold. This is not a reccommendation but a tactic. I feel eventually these crooked policticans will end up devaluating the currency. I don’t think the politicans really know what they are doing. Why gamble alot until clearer direction. 25% in market, I will hedge everything until I get some better signals. The government is just too manipulative right now. Thank you Bill for the lesson in risk control!

blue bluff
blue bluff
Reply to  mntinhi
February 1, 2009 7:46 pm

It seems like a lot of the guys in here are in cash until they make a short term play and they have tight stops to protect themselves. For anyone who holds long positions I think they’re crazy not to hedge in this environment. I’ve been harping on this the last 2 weeks over at my little trading blog. After a lot of thought and discussion I think buying protective index puts is the way to go. The summer is usually a rough time for the market anyway so I like at least the summer strike dates but the September… Read more »

tango6
tango6
February 1, 2009 6:46 pm

Remember “the first week presages the first month which presages the whole year for stocks?” Bulls hope not. I don’t believe that stuff but I am still a bear anyway and looking for weak stocks to short rather than strong ones to buy. However, GERN looks snappy to me at under $8–i may buy a little although I am not anxious to be long anything except silver and gold. For those who missed it on Bloomberg, Marine Turbines, a “closely held” UK firm is partnering with MBPP of Canada to set up a demo turbine that will harness the power… Read more »

ToddinFL
ToddinFL
Reply to  tango6
February 1, 2009 10:24 pm

tango6 said: “However, GERN looks snappy to me at under $8 …” In times past (and even more so in bull markets) GERN would have attracted my attention from the long side. Allow me to add a few words of caution, purely from a technical analysis standpoint. There still remains some overhead supply from May ’07 and December ’06. Those who bought the stock back then and have held on through the decline may represent potential sellers between $8.50-$10.00. The emotional need to “break even” is one of many human faults that keeps us from profitable trading. But it still… Read more »

2nd_ave
2nd_ave
Reply to  ToddinFL
February 1, 2009 11:14 pm

“Just one person’s opinion. Fade away …” Todd- Of course, I know what you’re referring to, but it reminds me of Neil Young’s “it’s better to burn out than to fade away” in reference to another stock from the late-nineties genomics mania…my younger brother, whose career in mergers and acquisitions was just beginning to take off, invited a colleague to spend a few nights in the Bay Area one Christmas…this colleague was working for a well-known British hedge fund manager in HK, and I recall him recommending CRA to my Dad…in doing so, he mentioned he was putting serious money… Read more »