Bill Cara’s Week in Review #12, 2013

[3:50 pm ET Sunday] The cover story this week reads: “Most economic news was unexpectedly positive and indicated that the recovery may be gaining momentum.”

But is it real or simply a story the Fed is feeding us today? I fear the latter and, after watching the shills on CNBC tout the party line in recent days, I have no concern that my forecast of much higher prices ahead is already a done deal thanks to the Fed, Friends and Family. The rest of us will be forced to play along.

Is it a bad thing we don’t have free capital markets? Well, if you care a whit about social equity you ought to be distressed. The 1% is rapidly gaining. And when enough of us complain about the slip-ups by the Jamie Dimon’s and the Jon Corzine’s, we are given the usual hearings in Congress that amount to nothing of consequence.

As I have long said, the market is a game that plays people. Sad but true.

A week ago I opened the WIR with these remarks:

Finally, after three weeks of mixed, and increasingly negative, messages from the capital markets when I figured that prices were ready to lift, I believe the path has been set. The first step will likely be a small one in reverse, but that will soon be followed by a major move higher. And this time, equities, commodities and precious metals will move together as the US Dollar and US Bonds begin to fall… Why do I think there were be a pull-back before the launch? The indexes have set new highs, which is not a negative at all – in fact it is part of my reasoning the market is going higher – but the S&P 500 RSI-7 for Monthly-Weekly-Daily is presently 79.6—82.9—75.4 and I have never seen a market lift-off on a high-risk Buy signal that was based on a previous high-risk Buy signal. Too many investors are now caught up in the prospects of additional QE and what implications exist for a lower US Dollar. That enthusiasm has to be moderated somewhat, and a price pull-back will do that.

The S&P 500 RSI-7 for Monthly-Weekly-Daily is presently 80.4—84.6—73.4

The selling started on Friday at the open.

Full stop.

The next buying surge will start three weeks from now.

Full stop.

For those of us who are commiserating over losses in our precious metals positions in the past two years, buy the (soon-to-come) next pull-back and you will soon enjoy the rewards. 2013 will be a great year.

Those 23 well-known gold analysts in the Bull & Bear survey, which picked a high range from 1720 to 2100 will all be wrong. The 2013 will be over +20% above the highest high forecast by the experts.
http://www.goldstocknews.com/GSNpdf/GSN-0213.pdf

That’s my story and I’m sticking to it.

What is a fact is that once proven totally wrong, these analysts will continue pulling down millions in compensation and many of them will later report they called the market correctly.

So, let’s see who is going to be right and who will prove to be the dud.

Now remember – it was only mid-November when leading equity analysts were forecasting a market crash of between 20% to 40%, and four months later the S&P 500 is up +16%. I was a lonely figure at the time who was saying the market was going higher, much higher.

And that was not because I was a believer in the market! In fact I think that what is happening to all of us is that the market is under the control of the Fed, Friends and Family. When Apple (AAPL) was about $550 I said it would go up +$100 or down -$100 from there depending on what these interventionists wanted, and the stories they paid to be published to the gullible marketplace. In fact since last summer I missed, by a lot, the high and the low with that comment. AAPL hit a low of ~$420 a few days ago, and it’s being bad-mouthed all over the media. But within the next six months, AAPL will be +30% higher, I believe.

I don’t like it when I think like this, but the market’s making me do it. It’s a phony market. Reminds me of 1982. In May of that year, as I recall, the Toronto composite started a new Bull, but the Fed wasn’t ready so the S&P 500 hung back. Then in mid-August, as I recall, I remember seeing massive block followed by massive block of trades being executed at higher prices. I remarked to those around me that only the Fed could bang the market like that. We are being set up for the same thing today. I smell it.

These people have no shame.

This week equity market prices lifted a bit before the selling started on Friday. The few stocks that out-performed on the upside this week appear very much to me to be whip-saw set-ups. Instead of buying them, you ought to have been selling.

As Grym and Bull Hunter noticed, there was a lot of selling on Friday in the DJIA, S&P 500 and NASDAQ Composite indexes. Due to quadruple witching, volumes were on steroids.
http://www.investopedia.com/terms/q/quadruplewitching.asp#axzz2NiTuzyHv

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Remember, you sell into strength and buy into weakness. That’s a rule the other side – the market interventionists – hate. They are the experts at pump and dump. Regrettably, 70% of you do exactly what they expect you will do. Human emotion tells you to go with the flow – you buy and sell with the crowd. Too many of you listen to the Fed’s Talking Heads and the media clowns.

This week there was a small rise in the prices of bonds. The 20-year Treasury (TLT) popped +0.5% on Friday to give it a gain of +0.9% W/W. The economic report numbers were rolling in all blue sky, enough to help the interventionists sell into strength.

As much as I say I’ll never repeat this, I do: All Fed and White House produced economic data is fudged. Deliberately. Ignore it. Stick to the data and the analysis provided by independent sources, bearing in mind there are biases there to.

But, bias is different than fraud. In fact, we are all biased; few of us are fraudsters and those of us who are will typically end up in prison while people like Dimon and Corzine earn many millions of dollars in compensation annually and live their lives in total comfort, knowing they, as part of a club, will never be prosecuted.

There are no lies big enough these people think are too big. I still cannot get over the one told by Chairman Bernanke – to Congress nonetheless – that he’s just an average Joe with a seven year old car and a car loan to boot. He’s saying that to a Senator who just couldn’t recall – in the heat of a campaign — that he owned seven houses.

But I digress.

There was selling of equities and buying of bonds on Friday. In three weeks, the economic data that the Fed reports (along with their internally generated gossip) will tell a different story, this time one to push people to buy equities and to sell bonds.

Like the arrival of the dubious inflation numbers this week, this stuff just comes in waves.

As to the broad market this week, the S&P 500 moved from 1551.18 to 1560.70, up +0.61% W/W. The Nasdaq Composite, Dow 30 and Russell 2000 Small Cap indexes lifted +0.14%, +0.81% and +1.06% respectively. But all these market indexes were down on Friday.

This week in the US market, seven of ten equity sectors lifted W/W, but on Friday there was not one sector that lifted. Week over week, there were 20 of the 30 Dow stocks that lifted. But on Friday, only ten were higher.

Whenever I come to a conclusion that the market is being controlled, I look to the stocks that are moving. Whether the market is rising or falling at these times, I expect to see the same leaders. You’ve heard me say this before: leadership comes from the same names – GE, Home Depot, Caterpillar, Pfizer… these are the companies closely associated with the BusinessRoundtable, the White House, the NYSE, CNBC, and the rest of the network of money players who control America. This week these four stocks were down an average of almost -2%. On Friday they dropped about -0.7% on average. Next week the rest of the market will follow them.

http://businessroundtable.org/news-center/

I see the news from the Business Roundtable (BRT) this week that another piece of their plan to regionalize currencies and trade networks has fallen into place. Japan will seek to join what is called the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP).

http://businessroundtable.org/news-center/business-roundtable-supports-j…

Interesting.

Internationally, 7 of 19 non-North American equity markets I follow were higher, and of the US Dollar denominated Country ETF’s I follow, 11 of 17 were higher. That’s a lot softer than a week ago.

Gold (+0.94% W/W), Silver (-0.52%), Platinum (-0.74%) and Palladium (-1.51%) were mixed. Crude Oil ($WTIC) gained +$1.53/bbl (+1.67% W/W). Copper was unchanged.

Now to the charts that I keep in front of you each WIR.

As you know, I recommend studying certain key ratio charts in capital markets to assess “the weight of the evidence” before you firmly establish a mind-set on Bull or Bear. Most of these indicators have been bullish recently.

For these studies I look at the ratio charts of:
• US Bonds ($USB) vs the US S&P 500 ($SPX)
• Global Dow Index ($GDOW) vs US 20-year Treasury Bonds (TLT)
• MSCI World Equity ex-US ($MSWORLD) vs the US S&P 500 ($SPX)
• US small cap Index ($RUT) vs the US large cap S&P 500 ($SPX)
• Canada (EWC, in USD) vs US S&P 500 (SPY)
• US Industrials (XLI) vs S&P 500 (SPY)
• Consumer Discretionary (XLY) vs Consumer Staples (XLP)
• Euro ($XEU) vs US Dollar ($USD)
• US Treasury Inflation Protected Bonds (TIP) vs US 20-yr Treasury Bonds (TLT)
• Goldminers (GDX) vs Gold Bullion ($GOLD)
• Silver Bullion ($SILVER) vs Gold Bullion ($GOLD)
• Junior Gold Miners (GDXJ) vs Senior Gold Miners (GDX)
• Oil Services Companies ($OSX) vs Integrated Oil companies ($XOI)
• Semi-Conductor Tech Companies (SMH) vs Major Tech Companies (XLK)

With these ratio charts, the good thing is that you are looking at the market speak, not the media. You can see for yourself the unfolding of relationships – i.e., what is actually happening in the market today, and from there you can study the reasons for it, such as the corporate or industry reports, the commodity prices, interest and dividend yields, impact of regulation and government policy, and so forth. Not all charts will give you a bullish or bearish picture, at least most of the time, but you take it all under consideration and go from there. There are different time frames – short, intermediate and long – and you are trying to time your entry or exit with the simultaneous reversal of all three. Also, if the big picture gets too extreme one way or the other, the trend is not likely to last in that direction and you ought to be looking for signs of a reversal.

A ratio chart, which is simply the first data series divided by the second, will show you clearly what is happening in terms of market drivers over the time period I am studying. It could be Daily, Weekly or Monthly data. As there may be a market cycle event on the way, I’ll be changing this week from a Daily to a Weekly data series to get a Big Picture view of where the market stands today.

If the line is rising, the first data series is strengthening. The S&P 500 by itself is in the solid thin orange line in the background. In the case of a Bull phase for equities, which some are calling the ‘risk on trade’, the line should be rising for the particular studies that follow, and the line should be above the 8-month Exponential Moving Average.

The following short-term Weekly data series charts show a definite change to ‘risk on’ in mid-November – a point in time when I noted that the pundits were over-the-top with their negative doom-and-gloom forecasts:

1. Weekly US S&P 500 ($SPX) vs Weekly US Bonds ($USB)—conclusion: A Bullish primary case since min-November persists.

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2. Weekly MSCI World Equity ex-US ($MSWORLD) vs US 20-year Treasury Bond (TLT)—conclusion: A Bullish primary case since min-November persists.

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3. Weekly MSCI World Equity ex-US ($MSWORLD) vs US S&P 500 ($SPX)—conclusion: The Weekly chart has changed from Bearish to Neutral this week. But the case is far from clear at this point.

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4. Weekly US small cap Index ($RUT) vs the US large cap S&P 500 ($SPX)—conclusion: A Bullish primary case since min-November persists.

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5. Weekly Canada (EWC, in USD) vs US S&P 500 (SPY) —conclusion: Remains sharply Bearish. But is much oversold, which to me is indicating a possible reversal within one month.

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6. Weekly US Industrials (XLI) vs S&P 500 (SPY)—conclusion: A Bullish primary case since min-November persists.

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7. Weekly Consumer Discretionary (XLY) vs Consumer Staples (XLP)—conclusion: Bullish again.

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8. Weekly Euro ($XEU) vs US Dollar ($USD)—conclusion: Reversal from extreme Bearish still.

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9. Weekly US Treasury Inflation Protected Bonds (TIP) vs US 20-yr Treasuries (TLT)—conclusion: Should this primary Bullish condition continue, the market is going higher.

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10. Weekly Goldminers (GDX) vs Gold Bullion ($GOLD)—conclusion: Remains sharply Bearish. But is much oversold, which to me is indicating a possible reversal within one month. Needs a weaker Dollar to support a Bull run.

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11. Weekly Silver Bullion ($SILVER) vs Gold Bullion ($GOLD)—conclusion: The Weekly data chart has been Bearish for about six months. I am anticipating this chart to soon start out like 2H10 and 1Q2011, i.e., strongly Bullish.

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12. Weekly Junior Gold Miners (GDXJ) vs Senior Gold Miners (GDX)—conclusion: From “clearly Bearish, and showing no signs it may be ready to reverse”, this chart is reversing to a Bullish pattern on the Weekly as well as the Daily. A week ago, GDXJ was up +3.14% W/W while GDX was flat. This week GDXJ was up +4.66% W/W while GDX was up +0.62%. The market is setting up for a Bull run in precious metal stocks.

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13. Weekly Oil Services Companies ($OSX) vs Integrated Oil companies ($XOI)—conclusion: From Neutral to now Bullish.

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14. Weekly Semi-Conductor Tech Companies (SMH) vs Major Tech Companies (XLK)—conclusion: The primary condition has been Bullish since early October, but is threatening to go Bearish. On Friday, SMH dropped -1.72% on the day while XLK was down -0.82%. To stay Bullish, SMH next week must be relatively stronger.

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Using the Weekly ratio chart data this week, I sum up the Bull:Bear picture as being 8 Bullish, 3 Bearish and 3 Neutral. I see 1 Bull and 1 Bear tending toward Neutral.

Two weeks ago in the WIR I opined: “Clearly the (Daily) Bull-Bear technical indicators are signaling weakness, which the broad market indexes are not showing. I continue to think the big picture is due to (i) consolidation of the strong Bull run from mid-Nov to early March, and (ii) wariness over currency relationships and how rapid exchange rate changes are causing havoc among international traders in goods and services. Add to that the recent strength in the US Dollar and US Bonds, and it is obviously a market that is fighting an ebb tide… As I opined a week ago: “I don’t think it’s fair to conclude that the global equity market has gone Bearish, but there are clearly weak spots now. Caution is urged.” … We are doing just that as in our Growth portfolios we are over 41% in cash and in the accounts where we balance equities with bonds, we are presently at over 31% in cash and over 17% in bonds.”

A week ago, I reported: “A surge of Bullish optimism is apparent in most international equity markets. Our accounts reflect that as well. We moved from 41% cash to just 2% in the Growth accounts and from 31% cash and 17% bonds a week ago to 11% cash and 9% bonds in the All-Weather accounts. But, this week’s bullishness may have been only a test of the resistance before soon testing support as the market prepares, in my view, to make a solid Bull move this year.”

This week we ended with 11% cash in All-Weather and 14% in Growth. This is prudent because should there be a small ~3% pull-back over the next three weeks (that started this Friday), we want to be in a bigger cash position in the more volatile higher-beta Growth equities. After the turn however, we will be at or close to 100% invested.

Now it’s time to look at what happened this week with the US economic reports, which, this week, were plentiful and the data was quite mixed.

For an objective presentation, here is the US summary and the headlines from the Econoday analysts:

The bottom line: Overall, the economy is showing notable signs of improvement. However, inflation also is up although mainly due to February’s jump in gasoline costs. Core inflation is rising, however. Probably the key points from this past week are that the recovery is gaining traction and that debate is going to pick up within the Fed on the timing of when to unwind easy monetary policy. It is too soon for the Fed to act but not too soon to raise the level of debate. It is, however, too soon to debate anything other than very gradual moves as sequestration will be seen as a drag on the economy.

For this week, the econ headlines were as follows:

>
• Retail sales show unexpected strength in February
• Business inventories recover in January after weak Q4
• Consumer sentiment dips in early March
• Industrial production jumps in February
• Empire State manufacturing remains positive in March
• Consumer price inflation spikes in February on energy costs
• Producer price inflation jumps in February

… Looking Ahead: Week of March 18 through 22 — On Wednesday, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke conducts his quarterly press conference following the FOMC statement and Fed forecasts. Otherwise, the focus is housing. This sector has shown moderate strengthening. Updates are posted on NAHB, housing starts, FHFA home prices, and existing home sales.

From recent weeks, the econ headlines were as follows:


• February employment surprises on the upside
• Consumer credit in January up on student loans
• International trade deficit widens in January on oil
• ISM non-manufacturing index improves in February
• Fed’s Beige Book indicates a soft Q1
• Fed chairman’s testimony soothes markets
• Q4 GDP growth turns positive but not as much as expected
• Personal income fell on fiscal cliff effects
• Motor vehicle sales in February hold strong
• Consumer confidence and sentiment unexpectedly go up
• New home sales unexpectedly jump in January
• Pending home sales jump in January
• FHFA and Case-Shiller home prices rise further in December
• New durables orders swing back down in January
• Markit and ISM manufacturing readings still positive
• FOMC minutes reflect debate on unwinding
• Housing starts ease in January but permits gain
• Existing home sales slow on limited supply
• Markit flash PMI for Feb. at 55.2 vs 55.8 for the final Jan. reading
• Philly Fed contracts faster in February
• CPI inflation soft at headline but may be temporary
• PPI inflation rebounds in January on food prices
• Leading indicators slow but stay positive in January

Because of the track-record of independence and objectivity, I encourage you to read the Econoday reports on the US economy. If we had more time in a day, we’d also be looking at the econ data for the rest of the world – at least more of it.

As for our studies this week, we’ll first look at the detailed economic data for the week that passed and the one ahead. Then we’ll get into the market prices, and the trends and cycles of Currencies, Bonds, Equities, Commodities and Precious Metals.

One final point before we get into our weekly study of markets, when it comes to trading equities I believe that the term “stock-picking” is inadequate and misleading. Instead, since a company is not a stock – i.e., a stock is just a price — you need to be “company picking” and “market timing”. I cannot stress that more.

While pure traders might disagree, I strongly believe that investor success is a consequence of asset allocation and portfolio management as much or more than simply trading execution.


Global Economics Review

Global Report from Econoday Chief Economist Anne Picker:

Equities were mostly lower in the Asia Pacific region but advanced in Europe and the U.S. even though they declined Friday. Good news was bad news in Australia where equities dropped on a much stronger than expected employment gain. Economic news from the U.S. for the most part was better than anticipated, but not from China leading investors to worry about the country’s growth. EU leaders meeting in Brussels pushed ahead on a bailout package for Cyprus and softened their rhetoric on austerity.

Econoday’s Global Perspective is written by chief economist Anne Picker.

US Report from Econoday Senior US Economist Mark Rogers:

Two important sectors showed surprising improvement. The consumer and manufacturing sectors gained with healthy numbers in February for retail sales and industrial production.

Mark Rogers is the author of The Complete Idiot’s Guide to Economic Indicators, Penguin Books, 2009. I recommend it.

The reason I devote much time in the WIR to the reporting and analysis of economic data is for us to gain an understanding of important reasons behind the ebb and flow of capital market prices and the sector rotation within markets. After you follow these reports from month to month you will get a sense of the interrelationships between the business or economic cycle and the capital market cycle.


Here are the key US economic reports from last week’s calendar.

US NFIB Small Business Optimism Index for February

After the release of the latest data on 3/12/2013, 7:30 AM ET, Econoday reported, Optimism is up among small business owners based on a solid 1.9 point gain in the small business optimism index to 90.8 in February. Inventory building, which is often a sign of optimism, leads February’s gain followed by plans to increase capital outlays which is another sign of optimism. Gains are wide across components and also include a rise in current job openings. Despite the month’s strengths, the report notes that the index level remains in recessionary ground.

US Retail Sales for February.

After the release of the latest data on 3/13/2013, 8:30:00 AM ET, Econoday reported, Retail sales in February were strong despite payroll tax increases and delayed income tax returns. As expected, lift came from gasoline prices and auto sales but there also was strength elsewhere. Retail sales jumped 1.1%, following a rise of 0.2% in January (originally up 0.1%). Expectations were for a 0.5% rise… Motor vehicle sales rebounded a sizeable 1.1%, following a 0.3% dip in January. Ex-auto sales in February increased 1.0%, following boost of 0.4% the month before (originally up 0.2%). The consensus projected a 0.6% increase in February. Gasoline sales were up significantly… On higher prices, gasoline sales spiked a monthly 5.0% in February, following a 0.7% increase the prior month. Gasoline sales were up significantly. Excluding both autos and gasoline components, sales gained 0.4% after increasing 0.3% in January (originally up 0.2%). Market expectations were for a 0.3% rise… Core subcomponent strength was widely scattered with increases seen in building materials & garden equipment, food & beverage stores, clothing & apparel, general merchandise, miscellaneous store retailers, and nonstore retailers… Weakness was in furniture & furnishings, electronics & appliances; sporting goods, hobby, book & music stores; and food services & drinking places… The consumer sector is looking a little stronger than earlier believed. Apparently, job growth is offsetting payroll tax increases at the aggregate level. The February strength and mild upward revisions to January will have some economists nudging up forecasts for first quarter GDP… On the news, equity futures rose.

US Import and Export Prices for Feb.

After the release of the latest data on 3/13/2013, 8:30:00 AM ET, Econoday reported, Import prices are up, a sharp 1.1% in February, but only because of oil. Excluding petroleum products, import prices are unchanged to extend a very flat trend — plus 0.1% in January and December and unchanged in November. These are not readings that will shake up Fed policy. Year-on-year rates are also flat and are actually negative, at minus 0.3%, for total import prices which include petroleum… Export prices are also up, 0.8% higher and reflecting a 2.0% monthly jump for agricultural products. Year-on-year rates for agricultural products, which spiked due to the Midwest drought, remain very high, at plus 13.4% in the latest reading… Prices of finished goods, on both the import and export sides, remain dormant with the recent exception of capital goods exports which are up 0.4% and 0.7% in the last two readings though the year-on-year rate remains at only plus 1.0%. Note that continued price traction for capital goods exports isn’t a certainty given softness reported this week in the European industrial sector… Oil is still high, at about $93, but is substantially lower than this time last month when it was near $100. This comparison points to easing pressure on fuel prices in the March report. Watch for oil-related price pressures in tomorrow’s producer price and Friday’s consumer price reports.

US Business Inventories for January.

After the release of the latest data on 3/13/2013, 10:00 AM ET, Econoday reported, A surprisingly heavy build in retail vehicles is a major factor behind a 1.0% rise in business inventories in January, which is double the Econoday consensus. A 1.9% increase in retail autos & parts is the strongest build in six months and reflects strong demand for autos. Note that autos are also building in the wholesale sector and are being drawn heavily, not surprisingly, out of the factory sector… This morning’s strong retail sales report included a big gain for vehicle sales in February, one that should ease January’s build at the retail level. Big builds in January also appear for retail building materials and general merchandise, again areas which show solid strength in the February retail sales report… Big builds aren’t wanted but January’s build may be an outlier. Previously released component data for January show a 0.5% build at manufacturers and a 1.2% build at wholesalers. Together, they drive up the total inventory-to-sales ratio one notch to 2.9 which is the highest reading of the recovery.

US Jobless Claims for week ending 3/09.

After the release of the latest data on 3/14/2013, 8:30 AM ET, Econoday reported, Initial jobless claims fell 10,000 in the March 9 week to 332,000 which indicates much more improvement in the labor market than Econoday’s consensus for 350,000. The week’s total is the second lowest of the recovery. There are no special factors skewing today’s report… The four-week average is now at its lowest level of the recovery, down 2,750 from the prior week to a 346,750 level that is a bit below the 350,000 trend of the month-ago comparison in what is an early positive indication for the March employment report… Continuing claims are also moving lower, down 89,000 in data for the March 2 week to 3.024 million which is another recovery low as is the 4-week average at 3.098 million. The unemployment rate for insured workers is unchanged at a recovery low of 2.4%… Strength in the labor market would explain ongoing signs of strength in other economic data, especially yesterday’s retail sales report. Today’s report is a major positive for today’s session.

US Producer Price Inflation Index for Feb.

After the release of the latest data on 3/14/2013, 8:30:00 AM ET, Econoday reported, Energy inflation was back in February, boosting the headline rate for the PPI. The core, however, remained moderate. The February producer price index increased a strong 0.7%, following a rebound of 0.2% in January. The February figure posted higher than market expectations for a 0.6% increase. The core rate, which excludes both food and energy, rose 0.2%-matching the prior month’s pace. The consensus projected a 0.2% increase… Food prices declined 0.5% after jumping 0.7% in January. Energy costs in February accelerated to a 3.0% boost, following a 0.4% decline the prior month. Gasoline spiked 7.2%, following a monthly decrease of 2.1% in January… Within the core, about twenty% of the February increase can be traced to prices for pharmaceutical preparations, which moved up 0.2%. An advance in the index for plastic products also contributed to higher prices for finished goods less foods and energy. Passenger car prices gained 0.3% while light trucks rose 0.1%… For the overall PPI, the year-ago rate in posted at 1.8%, compared to 1.4% in January (seasonally adjusted). The core rate was up 1.7% versus 1.8% in January. On a not seasonally adjusted basis for February, the year-ago headline PPI was up 1.7%, while the core was up 1.7%.

US Consumer Price Inflation Index for Feb.

After the release of the latest data on 3/15/2013, 8:30:00 AM ET, Econoday reported, Higher energy costs boosted headline CPI inflation in February but the core rate was somewhat moderate. The consumer price index for February jumped 0.7%, following no change in January. The latest reading came in higher than the median forecast for 0.5%. The core CPI-excluding food and energy-softened to a 0.2% rise after increasing a strong 0.3% in January. The consensus expected a 0.2% gain… By major components outside the core, energy jumped a monthly 5.4% after a decline of 1.7% in January. Gasoline surged a monthly 9.1% after falling 3.0% in January… For the core measure, the indexes for shelter, used cars and trucks, recreation, and medical care all rose in February. These increases more than offset declines in the indexes for new vehicles, apparel, airline fares, and tobacco… Year-on-year, overall CPI inflation increased to 2.0% in February from 1.6% in January (seasonally adjusted). The core rate came in at 2.0%, compared to 1.9% in January. On an unadjusted year-ago basis, the headline CPI in February on a year-ago basis was up 2.0% and the core was up 2.0%… The headline CPI rate mainly was boosted by energy costs which since have eased in March. The core rate, however, is at the Fed’s target rate of 2% but below the policy trigger rate of 2.5%. This likely will heat up the debate within the Fed on timing of unwinding easy policy. But for now, the doves-focusing on unemployment-will carry the vote. But expect debate to increase.

US Empire State Manufacturing Survey for mid-March.

After the release of the latest data on 3/15/2013, 8:30:00 AM ET, Econoday reported, The first look at the manufacturing sector in March is mostly positive. The Empire State index, at 9.24, is well above zero to indicate monthly growth in the New York manufacturing sector but growth, however, that’s slightly slower than February’s 10.04. The rate of monthly growth in new orders is specifically slowing, to 8.18 vs 13.31. Unfilled orders continue to contract, though only slightly at minus 2.15. Shipments, at 7.76, are more than four points slower than last month while employment, at an unresounding 3.23, is nearly five points slower… This report spent the second half of last year in the contraction camp until popping up strongly in January. The slower rate of growth in February, however, isn’t pointing to a sustainable upturn in the region’s manufacturing sector. Today’s report, again which offers the first look at March, isn’t likely to be much of a positive for today’s market. Watch later this morning for industrial production which will offer the Fed’s numbers on national manufacturing output during February.

US Industrial Production data for Feb.

After the release of the latest data on 3/15/2013, 9:15:00 AM ET, Econoday reported, Manufacturing in February improved sharply. Overall industrial production jumped 0.7% in February after no change in January (originally down 0.1%). Market expectations were for a 0.5% gain in February for overall production… The manufacturing component rebounded 0.8%, following a 0.3% drop in January. Analysts projected a 0.3% rise for the manufacturing component. The rate of motor assemblies remained strong and rose 3.6% after a 4.9% drop in January. Other industries generally showed healthy gains. Excluding motor vehicles, manufacturing gained 0.6% in February after a 0.1% increase the prior month… The output of utilities increased 1.6% in February while production at mines dipped 0.3%… Capacity utilization for total industry advanced to 79.6% from 79.2% in January. Expectations were for 79.4%… Manufacturing may be making a comeback after a soft January. Today’s numbers will likely nudge up estimates for first quarter GDP. The report also will boost debate next week within the Fed on when to unwind easy monetary policy.

US Consumer Sentiment Survey for mid-March.

After the release of the latest data on 3/15/2013, 9:55:00 AM ET, Econoday reported, Not all the economic news is good. Consumer sentiment is taking a surprise plunge so far this month, to 71.8 vs a roughly 79 pace during the last two weeks of February. Weakness is in the expectations component which fell 8.5 points to 61.7 which is the lowest reading since the fiscal impasse and US ratings cut in the third quarter of 2011. And the ongoing impasse, including sequestration, is a likely cause for the sudden lack of confidence in the outlook. The current conditions component also slowed but only slightly, down 1.5 points to 87.5… Rising gas prices could also be a factor in the lack of confidence in the outlook, but if so it isn’t apparent from inflation expectations. The one-year outlook is unchanged at 3.0% with the five-year outlook down, not up, one tenth to 2.9%… A separate reading on the 12-month economic outlook underscores the lack of confidence in the economy’s direction, falling 17 points to 70. Economic data have been humming lately including this week’s very strong retail sales report for February. But today’s report, which offers an early look at March, suggests that all the troubles facing the consumer, including this year’s increase in payroll taxes, may finally be taking their toll.


Here are the key US economic reports from next week’s calendar.

US NFIB Housing Market Index for mid-March

Before the release of the latest data on 3/18/2013, 10:00 AM ET, Econoday reported, NAHB housing market index for February was down one point to 46, now four points short of the 50 mark and indicating that more builders still describe conditions as bad than good. The National Association of Home Builders attributed the weakness to uncertainty over the nation’s jobs market as well as a shortage of available lots which is limiting new supply. The NAHB continues to cite stringent credit standards as another factor limiting the market… The report’s traffic component was far below 50, at 32 for a four point decline in the month. Weak traffic points to weak sales in the months ahead, but for right now the report’s two sales components remained steady with present sales at 51 and with sales six months out at 50.

US Housing Starts for February.

Before the release of the latest data on 3/19/2013, 8:30:00 AM ET, Econoday reported, Housing starts in January declined 8.5%, following a sharp rebound of 15.7% in December. The January starts pace of 0.890 million units was up 23.6% on a year-ago basis. The decrease in starts was led by a monthly 24.1% drop in the multifamily component after a 34.7% spike in December. Housing permits advanced 1.8% to an annual pace of 0.925 million units. Notably, single-family permits have not dipped on a month-ago basis since March 2012 and are now at their highest level since June 2008.

US FOMC Meeting Announcement.

Before the release of the latest data on 3/20/2013, 2:00:00 PM ET, Econoday reported, The March 19-20 FOMC policy meeting is expected to leave policy rates unchanged.

US FOMC Forecasts.

Before the release of the latest data on 3/20/2013, 2:00 PM ET, Econoday reported, The Fed now releases economic projections four times a year (March, June, September, and December). Traditionally, the Fed forecasts covered GDP, the PCE price index, and the civilian unemployment rate. However, the forecast report additionally now includes forecasts for the appropriate timing of the next change in the fed funds rate and the expected fed funds rate at the end of the next two years. As of March 20, 2013, the forecasts are released at the same time as the FOMC statement which is 2:00 p.m. ET and 30 minutes prior to the Fed chairman’s press conference which addresses the forecasts and Fed policy in general. The forecasts are a composite of individual forecasts by each Fed governor and each District president and cover two to three years out on an annual basis. The GDP, inflation, and unemployment numbers are published as a “central tendency” and also as a range. The central tendency is an average of the forecasts after the highest and lowest forecasts are removed. The range shows the highest and lowest forecasts for these indicators.

US Fed chairman’s media conference.

Before the release of the latest data on 3/20/2013, 2:30 PM ET, Econoday reported, The Fed announced on March 24, 2011 that Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke will hold press briefings four times a year to explain the FOMC’s latest quarterly economic projections. Additionally, the purpose of the briefings is to provide additional context for the FOMC’s policy decisions and to allow for Q&A with the press. According to the Fed, the “introduction of regular press briefings is intended to further enhance the clarity and timeliness of the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy communication.” As of March 20, 2013, the press briefing is held at 2:30 p.m. ET on the days of FOMC statements in which quarterly projections are released. These FOMC statement dates are designated as the ones released in the final month of each quarter–March, June, September, and December. The policy statement is released at 2:00 p.m. ET after the conclusion of every FOMC meeting regardless of whether there are forecasts or not. This schedule started March 20, 2013.

US Jobless Claims for week ending 3/16.

After the release of the latest data on 3/21/2013, 8:30 AM ET, Econoday reported, Initial jobless claims fell 10,000 in the March 9 week to 332,000. The week’s total was the second lowest of the recovery. There were no special factors skewing the report. The four-week average is now at its lowest level of the recovery, down 2,750 from the prior week to a 346,750 level that is a bit below the 350,000 trend of the month-ago comparison in what is an early positive indication for the March employment report. Continuing claims are also moving lower, down 89,000 in data for the March 2 week to 3.024 million which is another recovery low as is the 4-week average at 3.098 million.

US PMI Manufacturing Index Flash.

Before the release of the latest data on 3/21/2013, 8:58:00 AM ET, Econoday reported, The Markit PMI manufacturing index (final) slowed a bit the last half of February to 54.3 from the mid-month flash reading of 55.2. The final reading versus the flash reading points to a PMI in the low 53 area during the last two weeks. The comparison with the final January reading is 55.8 which is a brisker pace of monthly growth. Slower growth in orders was the standout detail with new orders down one full point from the flash reading to 55.4 which however is still a very respectable rate of monthly growth.

US FHFA House Price Index for Jan.

Before the release of the latest data on 3/21/2013, 9:00:00 AM ET, Econoday reported, The FHFA purchase only house price index for December gained 0.6%, following a rise of 0.4% the prior month. The December advance was led by the East South Central region, increasing 2.3%, with the Middle Atlantic region down 0.1%. The year-on-year rate posted at plus 5.8% versus 5.4% in November.

US Existing Home Sales data for Feb.

Before the release of the latest data on 3/21/2013, 10:00:00 AM ET, Econoday reported, Existing home sales in January gained 0.4% to an annual rate of 4.92 million. December’s rate was revised slightly lower to 4.90 million. Sales are being held back by limited supply of homes on the market-which is a negative now but a positive looking forward. Supply on the market for January was at 4.2 months which was down sharply from 4.5 and 4.8 months in the two prior months and was the lowest rate since the bubble days of 2005. The actual number of homes on the market, at 1.74 million, was the lowest in 14 years.

US Philadelphia Fed Survey for March.

Before the release of the latest data on 3/21/2013, 10:00:00 AM ET, Econoday reported, The general business conditions index of the Philadelphia Fed’s Business Outlook Survey, going against the national trend for February, fell to minus 12.5 from minus 5.8 in January. Forward momentum remains in contraction mode as the new orders index declined from a reading of minus 4.3 in January to minus 7.8 in February.

US Leading Economic Indicators for Feb.

Before the release of the latest data on 3/21/2013, 10:00:00 AM ET, Econoday reported, The Conference Board’s index of leading indicators was up 0.2% in January, down from a 0.5% rise in December but up from no change in November. Interest rate and credit components were strong pluses for the outlook as was the rally in the stock market. Two very important components were also on the plus side, unemployment claims and building permits with the former pointing to strength in the jobs market and the latter to strength in housing. A negative was consumer expectations which appeared to be depressed by higher payroll taxes, uncertainty over future income, and higher gasoline prices. The coincident index in January rose a solid 0.4%, which points to a respectable rate of current growth.


Technical Indicators & Patterns of International Markets

IMPORTANT NOTE:

We have a Cara All-Weather 100 and a Cara Growth 100. The Cara All-Weather 100 stocks only are featured in our discussions in the WIR.

What follows now is broad market research plus my original research data and number-crunching I do every week. It is all necessary work to help us be a winner or at least stay in the game.

Here is the Daily, Weekly, Monthly RSI-7 and EMA-8 data at Friday’s close for the new Cara 100 All-Weather company stocks:

wir13_12.15.gif
wir13_12.16.gif

In summary we use objective price and volume data to manage risk and show guidance. It is the on-board telemetry to support the performance trader.

The Cara 100 Scoreboard at the end of this week [WIR 12] shows:

5 with Daily RSI-7 below 30 [0 below 20] [0 below 15] [0 below 10]
6 with Weekly RSI-7 below 30 [0 below 20] [0 below 15] [0 below 10]
2 with Monthly RSI-7 below 30 [1 below 20] [0 below 15] [0 below 10]

The Cara 100 Scoreboard from one week ago [WIR 11] shows:

1 with Daily RSI-7 below 30 [0 below 20] [0 below 15] [0 below 10]
5 with Weekly RSI-7 below 30 [0 below 20] [0 below 15] [0 below 10]
1 with Monthly RSI-7 below 30 [1 below 20] [0 below 15] [0 below 10]

The Cara 100 Scoreboard from two weeks ago [WIR 10] shows:

9 with Daily RSI-7 below 30 [0 below 20] [0 below 15] [0 below 10]
6 with Weekly RSI-7 below 30 [0 below 20] [0 below 15] [0 below 10]
3 with Monthly RSI-7 below 30 [1 below 20] [0 below 15] [0 below 10]

The Cara 100 Scoreboard from three weeks ago [WIR 9] shows:

14 with Daily RSI-7 below 30 [7 below 20] [3 below 15] [0 below 10]
4 with Weekly RSI-7 below 30 [1 below 20] [0 below 15] [0 below 10]
2 with Monthly RSI-7 below 30 [0 below 20] [0 below 15] [0 below 10]

The Cara 100 Scoreboard from four weeks ago [WIR 8] shows:

13 with Daily RSI-7 below 30 [1 below 20] [1 below 15] [0 below 10]
1 with Weekly RSI-7 below 30 [1 below 20] [0 below 15] [0 below 10]
3 with Monthly RSI-7 below 30 [0 below 20] [0 below 15] [0 below 10]

The Cara 100 Scoreboard from five weeks ago [WIR 7] shows:

6 with Daily RSI-7 below 30 [1 below 20] [0 below 15] [0 below 10]
1 with Weekly RSI-7 below 30 [1 below 20] [0 below 15] [0 below 10]
2 with Monthly RSI-7 below 30 [0 below 20] [0 below 15] [0 below 10]

The Cara 100 Scoreboard from six weeks ago [WIR 6] shows:

1 with Daily RSI-7 below 30 [1 below 20] [1 below 15] [0 below 10]
2 with Weekly RSI-7 below 30 [1 below 20] [0 below 15] [0 below 10]
3 with Monthly RSI-7 below 30 [0 below 20] [0 below 15] [0 below 10]

The Cara 100 Scoreboard from seven weeks ago [WIR 5] shows:

7 with Daily RSI-7 below 30 [0 below 20] [0 below 15] [0 below 10]
1 with Weekly RSI-7 below 30 [0 below 20] [0 below 15] [0 below 10]
2 with Monthly RSI-7 below 30 [0 below 20] [0 below 15] [0 below 10]

The Cara 100 Scoreboard from eight weeks ago [WIR 4] shows:

3 with Daily RSI-7 below 30 [0 below 20] [0 below 15] [0 below 10]
0 with Weekly RSI-7 below 30 [0 below 20] [0 below 15] [0 below 10]
2 with Monthly RSI-7 below 30 [1 below 20] [0 below 15] [0 below 10]

The Cara 100 Scoreboard from nine weeks ago [WIR 3] shows:

2 with Daily RSI-7 below 30 [0 below 20] [0 below 15] [0 below 10]
0 with Weekly RSI-7 below 30 [0 below 20] [0 below 15] [0 below 10]
1 with Monthly RSI-7 below 30 [1 below 20] [1 below 15] [0 below 10]

The Cara 100 Scoreboard ten weeks ago [WIR 2] shows:

0 with Daily RSI-7 below 30 [0 below 20] [0 below 15] [0 below 10]
0 with Weekly RSI-7 below 30 [0 below 20] [0 below 15] [0 below 10]
1 with Monthly RSI-7 below 30 [1 below 20] [0 below 15] [0 below 10]

The Cara 100 Scoreboard from eleven weeks ago [WIR 1] shows:

19 with Daily RSI-7 below 30 [7 below 20] [2 below 15] [0 below 10]
8 with Weekly RSI-7 below 30 [2 below 20] [1 below 15] [0 below 10]
9 with Monthly RSI-7 below 30 [2 below 20] [1 below 15] [0 below 10]

The Cara 100 Scoreboard from twelve week ago [WIR 52-2012] shows:

8 with Daily RSI-7 below 30 [4 below 20] [1 below 15] [1 below 10]
3 with Weekly RSI-7 below 30 [1 below 20] [1 below 15] [0 below 10]
3 with Monthly RSI-7 below 30 [1 below 20] [1 below 15] [0 below 10]

This is an important study because it enables me to easily see which of the Cara 100 company stocks have turned comparatively weakest. I look for whether the weaklings are finding bids at the lower prices and bouncing back or whether they are leading the broad market lower. I look for which sectors they are in, and whether the drivers might be macro-economic, interest rates, commodity prices or corporate developments such as newly reported earnings, dividends or guidance regarding its operations or its industry.

I have found this basic quantitative system to be fairly good at indicating the prospects of a cycle top or bottom, but it is important to realize that individual technical indicators are just that. They are not absolutes, but only indicators and my system examines the trends of those indicators, hopefully enabling me a bigger picture of the market.

We use the more enhanced system to relatively weight the desirability of holding the individual Cara 100 stocks we get to know and trade. As you know, everything is relative in trading. However, we also must study the trends and cycles data of the broad equity market to get a sense of that bigger picture.

We also examine the broad market technical summaries each week. Here is the bigger picture technical data. The data can be found at: http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.scan

As you know, after the close on Friday, I often look at the 52-week new highs vs new lows at important juncture points.

On Sept 14, there were 943 New Highs and 101 New Lows.
On Sept 21, there were 498 New Highs and 64 New Lows.
On Oct 14, there were 97 New Highs and 102 New Lows.*** Big change
On Oct 19, there were 115 New Highs and 127 New Lows.
On Oct 26, there were 89 New Highs and 127 New Lows.
On Nov 2, there were 240 New Highs and 119 New Lows.
On Nov 9, there were 89 New Highs and 202 New Lows.
On Nov 16, there were 43 New Highs and 318 New Lows.
On Nov 23, there were 173 New Highs and 64 New Lows.
On Nov 30, there were 235 New Highs and 108 New Lows.
On Dec 7, there were 168 New Highs and 97 New Lows.
On Dec 14, there were 140 New Highs and 82 New Lows.
On Dec 21, there were 169 New Highs and 117 New Lows.
On Dec 28, there were 82 New Highs and 74 New Lows.
On Jan 4, there were 579 New Highs and 48 New Lows.*** Big change
On Jan 11, there were 506 New Highs and 55 New Lows.
On Jan 18, there were 693 New Highs and 65 New Lows.
On Jan 25, there were 777 New Highs and 81 New Lows.
On Feb 1, there were 835 New Highs and 68 New Lows.*** Maximum strength
On Feb 8, there were 585 New Highs and 71 New Lows.
On Feb 15, there were 620 New Highs and 158 New Lows.
On Feb 22, there were 209 New Highs and 111 New Lows.*** Big change
On Mar 1, there were 307 New Highs and 156 New Lows.
On Mar 8, there were 754 New Highs and 84 New Lows.
On Mar 15, there were 664 New Highs and 93 New Lows.

On the NYSE this week, there were 431 New Highs versus 502 the prior week, and 179, 106, 411, 394, 593, 548 and 491 the weeks before that one, which reflects a continuing strong market.

This was the most bullish start to any year since 1971. But the ratio charts, and these technical indicator charts put the Bulls on notice that markets cannot continuously increase in price week after week. Whether the driver is corporate fundamental data, quantitative data, economic data, interest rate/yield data or strictly technical price and volume based data, there is always a reason for price motion in markets.

Two weeks ago I remarked: “Our challenge is to find out the cause(s). I think that the recent pop in the $USD, and some weakness in the $XEU (Euro) means that investors are now on guard. They have not turned Bearish yet, but clearly they are cautious at this point.” Despite this week’s enthusiasm for risk-taking, investors ought to continue to be cautious here. The RSI-7 figures are simply too high to allow us to relax. So tighten your stops.” I think the selling started on Friday.

Here is this week’s report:

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wir13_12.18.gif

As trend is as important as numbers or percentages, compare the current data above with the detailed data from the prior week:

wir13_12.19.gif
wir13_12.20.gif

To repeat:

From years of experience, I know that traders who rely entirely on mechanical systems will soon realize that common sense is another necessary ingredient.

No single system back-tests to continuous success – ever. Markets change because the approach and style of traders undergo continuous change. It’s why I say that to trade successfully you need to know a little about a lot of things, always keeping an open mind, looking for the weight of the evidence, all of it based on hard data.

Bear in mind that technical RSI-based Alert signals (i.e., potential Buy signals) are not given until a trend reversal occurs. The term ‘Accumulation’ applies to those stocks that are on a watchlist for purchase candidates. At that point, I begin to focus on the various aspects of technical, quantitative, fundamental and economic conditions for that company and stock (note that a company is not a stock), building sufficient weight of evidence as to cause me to buy the stock.

This is a process that I discuss in my book “Lessons from the Trader Wizard”, asking the reader to try to get a grasp (i.e., a little knowledge) of a wide number of investment topics that will, with experience, help you develop the judgment you need to make your own long-term or short-term oriented trading decisions.

Over my trading career, I have found most people do the opposite. They focus on one or two concepts (like PE or mutual funds or Elliott Wave or even RSI, etc), while harboring the belief that such an approach makes trading easy. Trading is not easy. The market is, frankly, an ugly game of deception that plays people. In recent years, because of digitalization and globalization factors, the deceit is even greater and trading made that much harder.

The only way to build your confidence is to be a student of the market, i.e., drilling down into the data and also understanding the big picture, a process which I try to help with my book Lessons From the Trader Wizard.

I have been using the WIR to state my understanding from the data that from late in the 2Q2012, and going forward, the market had been undergoing a cycle bottom process. I noted that my perspective early on was not the conventional wisdom. I also cautioned at the beginning that a bottoming process takes time and that the technical indicators, the ones I use or other ones, are not always going to pin-point exact bottoms (or tops). However, the trading process is a lot like real estate, which most people do understand: if you happen to rent and then become a buyer during a Buyers’ Market (when prices are down) and sell (and then rent) in a Sellers’ Market (when prices are very high), you will do a more effective job of (i) building assets quickly, and (ii) protecting those assets as good as you can during the tough times. Trading securities is a lot easier and much less costly, in fees and commissions, than ‘trading’ houses! The advantage in securities trading is in the great liquidity of the market.

The more experience you get in trading securities the more you realize that liquidity is the fuel that drives prices. If the market’s liquidity only came from independent traders who I call the owners of capital, then prices would mostly rise and fall because of corporate fundamentals, industry demand and supply, commodity and wage costs, and interest rates. The capitalist system investment model would be much easier to figure out than it is today where Interventionists, like governments and central bankers, have altogether different trading motives, and private equity corporate acquisitors and short and distort syndicates play such a major role in the market.

The market is an intellectual workplace. It’s true that, if we are serious investors and traders, we are all students of the market. And, writing about it, as participants in the Blog Discourse have come to realize, is part of a self-education process.


International Equity Markets Review

This week, $MSWORLD gained +2.53% to close the week at 1717.21.

But how is that possible? I mean this is nonsense. The Bovespa (Brazil) plunged -2.7%, the Bolsa (Mexico) plunged -3.9%, Toronto was flat, Hong Kong and Shanghai dropped -2.4% and -1.7% respectively, while the FTSE, CAC and DAX (UK, France and Germany) lifted only +0.1%, +0.1% and +0.7% respectively. Only the NIKKEI (Japan) at +2.3% was up more than +0.7% of the world’s major equity markets.

So who’s fooling who?

Just like what happened in the Bond market this week, I find some market action that concerns me because I don’t know what to believe.

Here is the Weekly chart of the $MSWORLD (1717.21), slightly above the 8-week EMA (1681.51), which is in dashed blue and the S&P 500 ($SPX) in thin solid orange behind.

wir13_12.21.gif

The current price above the 8-week Exponential Moving Average is Bullish, and the 7-week Relative Strength Index, which has improved over three weeks from 53.42 to 58.60 to 70.94, is also Bullish, having stayed above the 50-line and now above the 70-line.

Two weeks ago I noted that aspects of the chart were Bearish and negative “but not enough to force long-term investors out of positions. In my simple little system, when the Weekly RSI-7 drops below the 50-line, that condition is a flat-out SELL. We are very close.” A week ago I added: “The Bulls have won out for now.”

Obviously the market is a moving target. A true student of the market archives the data and studies one’s ongoing perspective on it.

Here is what I remarked two weeks ago in this space:

A week ago I remarked: “Decision time. Is this truly extremely close to a SELL or simply a necessary consolidation of a couple weeks that tempers the enthusiasm of investors who participated in the previous 13-week rocket launch? If the $SPX was still not Bullish, I would not be giving this matter a second thought; my mind-set would be SELL… But all along I explained that the world is at currency war, and, as we know, when the $USD contract is soaring, it is almost certain that commodity prices, precious metal prices and equity prices are under pressure, and that’s what started to happen. Should the $USD, which has moved from ~79.12, up +4.03% to 82.31 in just four weeks, and TLT up +2.91% over that span, continue to strengthen, the Euro will soon break, and so too will most of the capital markets that are under pressure at times like this. There would simply be too much capital fleeing into Bonds to support price levels in the other markets.

The Euro then came under pressure but has not broken. In fact this week was up +0.55% W/W with a gain on Friday of +0.56%.

So just when it appears to be about to slip it hangs in. I think it has to pull back for a couple weeks in order to spring the trap. In early April I think the Euro is going to start a new Bull run along with equities, commodities and precious metals.

Here is the international equity re-cap from Econoday:

wir13_12.22.gif
wir13_12.23.gif

This advice is important, so I’ll keep it running:

“Trading is a matter of time horizon, which for each of us is different, which is why I say it’s silly to be listening to these Talking Heads as you don’t know whether they are talking about hours, days, weeks, months, quarters or years. They won’t tell you that of course because the uncertainty leaves them an out… The Weekly price series data is more important than the Daily – just as the Monthly is more important than the Weekly. It is the Weekly price series data however that most portfolio managers base their decision making today – if they look at the technical indicators at all… Note that other analysts use different indicators – if they use them at all. The crucial point is that each of us must choose the technical tools they feel works best for them (some people are long-term oriented and others short-term, etc, and some like low-beta stocks and others high-beta, etc) and then stick to applying them consistently.”


Below are 16 country index chart links from StockCharts.com (with their formal approval btw). Global equity markets do not trade in a vacuum. It is important to be watching these markets move through a trend juncture together, pushed and pulled by global currency and commodity strength or weakness as well as local and regional economic forces.


Here is the latest session data for the exchanges of the Americas.

Here is the latest chart for the Brazilian Bovespa stock exchange in Sao Paulo.

Brazilian Bovespa stockcharts.com chart


Here is the latest session data for the Toronto Stock Exchange composite index.

Toronto 300 stockcharts.com chart

Toronto CDNX stockcharts.com chart


Europe

Here is the latest session data for the bourses of Europe.


Here is the latest session data for the London stock exchange FTSE 100.

FTSE 100 stockcharts.com chart


Here is the latest session data for the German DAX 30.

DAX stockcharts.com chart


Here is the latest session data for the French CAC 40.

CAC 40 stockcharts.com chart


Here is the latest session data for the Swiss market index. Swiss Market Index stockcharts.com chart


Asia-Pacific

Here is the latest session data for the Asia-Pacific stock exchanges.


Here is the latest chart for the Japanese Nikkei 225 index.

Tokyo Nikkei 225 Index stockcharts.com chart


Here is the latest chart for the Singapore index .

Singapore Straits Times Index stockcharts.com chart


Here is the latest chart for the Shanghai Composite index .

Shanghai Composite Index stockcharts.com chart


Here is the latest chart for the Hong Kong Hang Seng index .

Hong Kong Hang Seng stockcharts.com chart


Here is the latest chart for the India BSE 30 index .

Mumbai BSE 30 Sensex Index stockcharts.com chart


Here is the latest chart for the Australian All Ordinaries index .

Sydney All Ordinaries Index stockcharts.com chart


Russia (RTS) stockcharts.com chart


Review of the ETFs for the International equity market

As you know, the country Exchange Traded Funds (ETF) are not the same as the domestic exchange indexes, but are (i) denominated in US Dollars, (ii) traded in NY, mostly by Americans, (iii) traded for several hours each day after Asia-Pacific and European markets have been closed, and (iv) a reflection of the most up-to-date news stories and investment analysis.

Also, depending on extreme currency fluctuations, the USD denominated ETFs may widely differ in performance from the results of the domestic exchanges.

When the world is worried and goes risk-off, it’s the international equities that get hammered the most, and that feeds the US Dollar market, which further lifts the Dollar and worsens the crisis. If that Dollar buying gets out of hand, the markets take on the appearance of a death plunge.

This week in NY, for the eleven major country ETFs I follow (that trade in the US in US Dollars) six were higher and five lower. The losers were much bigger losers than the winners were big winners. For example, China (GXC -4.49% W/W), Hong Kong (EWH -3.50%), Brazil (EWZ -3.33%), India (IFN -2.17%) and Russia (RSX -2.04%) were all bigger losers than the biggest winner, Japan (EWJ +1.62%).


Table 14: International equities via an ETF perspective (in $USD)

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance
Symbol
Close 1Day
Change
1Day
%Change
1W
%Change

2W
%Change

4W
%Change

YTD
%Change

3M
%Change

6M
%Change

12M
%Change

EWJ

10.64 0.10 0.95% 1.62% 3.20% 7.04% 6.51% 13.31% 12.47% 5.98%

EWU

18.30 -0.14 -0.76% 1.22% 2.35% 0.22% 0.49% 1.84% 1.95% 4.51%

EWC

28.67 0.14 0.49% 1.02% 1.31% -0.80% -0.69% 0.60% -2.45% 0.49%

EWA

27.69 0.43 1.58% 0.95% 2.78% 3.48% 8.63% 8.16% 13.07% 17.93%

EWG

25.55 0.04 0.16% 0.87% 4.33% 2.36% 2.24% 5.23% 8.58% 8.68%

EWQ

24.22 -0.08 -0.33% 0.21% 3.59% 2.02% 2.11% 4.31% 7.12% 7.50%

EWS

13.68 -0.03 -0.22% -0.51% -0.15% -1.51% -1.51% -1.51% -0.44% 6.46%

RSX

28.88 0.03 0.10% -2.04% 0.24% -4.75% -5.87% -1.40% -6.78% -12.46%

IFN

21.60 -0.11 -0.51% -2.17% 2.13% 0.33% 0.47% -5.88% -5.88% -6.70%

EWW

71.19 -1.10 -1.52% -2.36% -0.15% -0.36% -0.93% 1.85% 8.29% 16.40%

EWM

14.40 -0.12 -0.83% -2.37% -1.50% -0.89% -5.45% -3.03% -4.19% -1.17%

EWT

13.35 -0.18 -1.33% -2.48% -1.55% -2.48% -3.40% -3.19% -1.84% -2.13%

EWZ

55.73 -0.29 -0.52% -3.33% 0.96% -0.75% -2.16% 2.84% -2.33% -17.63%

EWH

19.58 -0.25 -1.26% -3.50% -2.68% -3.07% -1.46% 0.88% 7.46% 8.00%

ILF

43.24 -0.36 -0.83% -3.70% -0.37% -2.66% -3.14% -0.14% -2.90% -10.85%

EWY

58.79 -1.00 -1.67% -3.78% -5.09% -3.64% -9.51% -5.35% -2.91% -3.08%

GXC

69.96 -0.69 -0.98% -4.49% -3.13% -6.23% -8.39% -3.08% 6.73% -2.29%

Japanese equity market ETF: EWJ

Here is the Japanese (EWJ) equity market ETF Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:

Interactive EWJ Monthly data:

Interactive EWJ Weekly data:

Weekly EWJ

Interactive EWJ Daily data:

Daily EWJ


U.K. equity market ETF

Here is the United Kingdom (EWU) equity market ETF Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:

Interactive EWU Monthly data:

Interactive EWU Weekly data:

Weekly EWU Data

Interactive EWU Daily data:

EWU Daily data: Daily EWU Data


Canada’s equity market

Here is the Canadian (EWC) equity market ETF Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:

Interactive EWC Monthly data:

Interactive EWC Weekly data:

Weekly EWC Data

Interactive EWC Daily data:

Daily EWC Data


Taiwan’s equity market

Here is the Republic of China/Taiwan (EWT) equity market ETF Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:

Interactive EWT Monthly data:

Interactive EWT Weekly data:

Interactive EWT Daily data:


Indonesia equity market ETF

Here is the Indonesia Fund (IF) equity market ETF Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:

IF Summary from Yahoo Finance:
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/pr?s=IF

IF Summary from Google Finance:
http://www.google.com/finance?q=AMEX:IF

IF chart from StockCharts.com:
http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?IF

Interactive IF Monthly data:

Interactive IF Weekly data:

Interactive IF Daily data:


Here are the links to interactive charts from Investertech.com for the key country ETFs, which you can add technical indicators for as well.

Group 1:

(list one)

(list two)

(list three)

Group 2:

(list one)

(list two)

(list three)


US Equity Markets Review

The S&P 500 (+0.61% W/W) increased from 1551.18 to 1560.70 this week. And the S&P 500 had gained +2.17% a week ago. Trap?

A week ago I remarked: “Every Friday this year, I think, has been a winning day.” But this Friday the S&P 500 dropped -0.16% and the NASDAQ Composite, which gained +0.14% W/W was down -0.30% on Friday.

I say ‘trap’ because the S&P 500 jumped over +3.0% in nine sessions before falling -0.3% on Friday. Another -2.7% would sink the market -3.0% in a couple weeks and start the Talking Heads and media clowns again talking up “Crash!” – right before lift-off. But over four or five weeks, the S&P 500 would have been flat (and building a base) – if my forecast proves out.

Here is the Econoday report on US equities this week:

wir13_12.24.gif

This week, seven of the ten US equity market sectors were higher. But on Friday there was not a single winning sector.

Table 1 shows that for the past four weeks, the S&P 500 (SPY) gained +2.32%. Over the same period, there was not a single losing sector.


DJIA ino.com chart

DJIA stockcharts.com chart

NASDAQ Composite ino.com chart

NASDAQ Composite stockcharts.com chart

Here is the list of the ten highest-weighted non-financial stocks in the NASDAQ Composite. I recommend you put them in a watchlist (e.g., Google Finance Portfolio) and watch them like a hawk:

AAPL MSFT GOOG QCOM RIMM CSCO INTC ORCL GILD EBAY

Daily RSI-7 for the Nasdaq 100 Big-10
Weekly RSI-7 for the Nasdaq 100 Big-10
Monthly RSI-7 for the Nasdaq 100 Big-10

Add two of AMZN, DELL, JAVA or YHOO to get a Cara Dozen.

Or while you are at Investertech.com, input up to 30 tickers in the window above “Summaries” – say AAPL MSFT GOOG QCOM RIMM CSCO INTC ORCL GILD EBAY AMZN DELL JAVA YHOO plus up to 16 more – and click on Tech Chart, Basic View, Daily Watch, Performance or Fundamentals and you’ll get a lot of information to compare one against the others.


Here is the Monthly data chart of the Interactive Chart of Nasdaq Composite, S&P 500, Dow30, and Russell 2000 (small cap) indexes.

Monthly Nasdaq Composite Data

Monthly S&P 500 Data

Monthly Dow 30 Data

Monthly Russell 2000 Data

Here is the Weekly data chart of the Interactive Chart of Nasdaq Composite, S&P 500, Dow30, and Russell 2000 (small cap) indexes.

Weekly Nasdaq Composite Data

Weekly S&P 500 Data

Weekly Dow 30 Data

Weekly Russell 2000 Data

Here is the Daily data chart of the Interactive Chart of Nasdaq Composite, S&P 500, Dow30, and Russell 2000 (small cap) indexes.

Daily Nasdaq Composite Data

Daily S&P 500 Data

Daily Dow 30 Data

Daily Russell 2000 Data


Value Line Dow 30 Stocks Review

The DJIA stocks being reviewed this week [Value Line cycle 12, 25, 38 and 51], are (i) Boeing (BA), which is a member of the Cara 100 best quality, large cap growth companies in the world, based on financial strength, management, returns on equity, profit margins, and so forth, although for a couple years the Dreamliner experience made me doubt that decision; (ii) United Health Group (UNH), which joined the Dow 30 in the past year, and (iii) Travelers Co (TRV), another fairly recent addition to the DJIA. I like to comment on Boeing, but not so with Travelers, which I think is only a Dow 30 constituent because of the Big Money/Fed behind Citigroup, which was pulled after it became a State-Owned Enterprise, replaced by a subsidiary Travelers. You want to control the Dow 30, which the public uses as a market indicator — this is how you do it. The rest of us are just along for the ride. 🙂


Boeing Co [GICS 20, Dow 30. Cara 100] [Value Line cycle 12, 25, 38 and 51]
(BA: Google Finance file)
(BA: Yahoo Finance file)
(BA: StockChart chart)
(BA: Investertech chart)
(BA: ADVFN Financial Data)
(BA: Profile)
(BA: Value Line Report Mar. 15: next one is due Jun. 14)


Travelers Co [GICS 40, Dow 30] [Value Line cycle 12, 25, 38 and 51]
(TRV: Google Finance file)
(TRV: Yahoo Finance file)
(TRV: StockChart chart)
(TRV: Investertech chart)
(TRV: ADVFN Financial Data)
(TRV: Profile)
(TRV: Value Line Report Mar. 15: next one is due Jun. 14)


UnitedHealth Group [GICS 35, Dow 30] [Value Line cycle 12, 25, 38 and 51]
(UNH: Google Finance file)
(UNH: Yahoo Finance file)
(UNH: StockChart chart)
(UNH: Investertech chart)
(UNH: ADVFN Financial Data)
(TRV: Profile)
(UNH: Value Line Report Mar. 15: next one is due Jun. 14)


Always before I study a company, I review my prior written notes.

For WIR #38-2010 (Sept 17 @ 62.95, down in 13 weeks from Jun 21 @ 67.96),

My comments are as follows:

In the WIR #25, I accurately opined the June 21 price was over-bought at $67.96. BA plunged to a low of $60.65 on July 6 and $59.48 on Aug 25. To reiterate, I wrote in WIR #25: “At this point, I assess the situation differently. I think the stock price is over-bought in the near-term (but that) the 2011 revenue, earnings and dividends might improve faster than Value Line projects presently.”

For starters, Boeing continues to increase the production rate of its popular Next-Gen 737. In May, as I reported, the rate went from 31.5 to 34 planes per month. By the end of June the rate was increased to 35. This Friday, the company announced that as of 2Q2013, the rate would increase to 38. An attractive feature is the reduced fuel consumption. To me this data adds up to an increase in pricing power, higher revenues and higher profitability. As at Sept 14, there were 250 net orders for the 737 planes.

The Value Line analyst Morton L. Siegel does a fair job in his write-up, but if you read between the lines, I think there is a bit more uncertainty regarding the expenses and penalties due to further production start-up delays with the 787 Dreamliner. So, I’m anticipating more volatility to the stock in the next year.

Siegel’s earlier earnings projection for 2010 has dropped from $3.80 to $3.60, but in fact management has guided $3.60-$3.80. A reasonable guess of $1.00/sh earnings for Q3 and Q4 would bring the full year to $3.76. Dividend growth expectations have also been reduced for 2010 and 2011 from $1.84 and $2.00 respectively to $1.72 and $1.88.

As I reported previously, Siegel had “concluded that BA has wide capital gains potential through 2012-2014. In fact, he projects an annual Total Return (TR), which combines dividend yield with share price appreciation, ranging from a low of +19% to a high of +28% based on a projected low of 105 and high of 140.” Pushing that out a year to 2013-2015, Siegel is now projecting a low of 100 and high of 140 with an annual Total Return (TR) ranging from a low of +14% to a high of +24%.

Clearly, Boeing retains the high quality, but with a little less enthusiasm by the analyst, and rightfully so. But should the broad market sell off dramatically in the next quarter, BA would be a good stock to keep your eye on. Analyst ratings will improve as the fundamentals show the continuing upswing.

But without a sell-off, I’m not interested in BA, even after the stock has sold off -10% in the past six weeks. I’ll bide my time, possibly al the way down to the $50-$51 range. It won’t go lower, I wouldn’t think, with a dividend slated for $1.88 per share in 2011 with earnings of around $4.80. I’d load up the truck at that price even if, which would be entirely likely if BA hit $50-51, the world markets had crashed.

As for Travelers (TRV), I haven’t spent the time on the data to have a view. I have taken note that on Aug 27, VL analyst Alan House has downgraded the six-month Technical timing rating from a ‘2’ (good) to a ‘3’ (average). He thinks that earnings in 2010 and 2011 are unexciting, but opined that going out to 2013-2015 perhaps Wall Street is underestimating the growth potential.

I have nothing to add.

For WIR #51-2010

BA Dec 17 @ 65.03, up +3.30% in 13 weeks from 62.95, but down from 67.96 26 weeks ago.

TRV Dec 17 @ 55.18, up +4.77% in 13 weeks from 52.67, and up from 51.35 26 weeks ago.

Again, I will not comment much on Travelers (TRV) because I don’t really understand it. For example, the earnings per share excludes gains and losses from the investment portfolio, but there is a total of some $65.4 billion fixed term debt holdings on the balance sheet and only $27.3 billion in shareholders’ equity. That might be ok in a falling interest rate environment, but rates have been rising quickly. What if rates were to spike to extremes? What would the value of these bonds and notes be then? What happens if some of the issuers declared insolvency/bankruptcy, what would the value of those holdings be then?

In any case, I do understand one thing here and that is that there have been massive share buy-backs and dividend increases, which (i) manufactured per share metrics that otherwise would have looked horrible, and (ii) pumped the price of the stock, somewhat like what we saw in the Paulson’s Folly years. Besides this company is a Citigroup spin-off, which is the reason it is in the Dow 30, replacing C, which is another reason I don’t waste my time looking deeper.

Maybe from an insurance underwriting perspective, Travelers is top-notch. I’m not an expert in that area, so I cannot say. TRV then is on my preferred list as in ‘prefer not to deal with’.

My comments on Boeing (BA) are as follows:

The Boeing balance sheet has improved quite significantly in the past two years. Revenues, operating margins and earnings are growing. Within a couple years, the Value Line analyst expects to see this company thrive on the basis of improving Return on Capital, Return on Equity, paydown on debt, and hence percentage retained to common equity, all of which is good. Would I buy now? No. But I would if the price drops down to my point of interest, which would be, as I stated previously, $50-$51.

Yes, it pays to be patient. Let this company endure its Dreamliner problems (test flights stopped until they can discover and prevent the reason for an on-board file trying to land an earlier test flight), its competitive pressures from Airbus Industries, and a higher US Dollar that makes sales a bit tougher. At the end of the day, Bernanke’s QE2, 3 and 4 will lower the Dollar, and Boeing will be back in the sky again. I’ll be aboard. Probably my usual seat 13A.

That’s the 737 exit aisle window. As a trader, I like to (i) buy economy, (ii) be comfortable, and (iii) get out in a hurry if I have to. 🙂


For WIR #25-2011 June 19

BA June 17 @ 74.16.

TRV June 17 @ 57.92.

As I was on vacation at the time, there was no WIR#12, when I would have covered these two stocks. When you look at the Boeing share price that followed my last write-up in December, you’ll see that I did need a holiday! The BA soared +23.2% from $65.03 at that point (Dec 17) to a high of $80.09 on May 13, presently at $74.16.

The Daily data chart for BA is super-imposed on the S&P 500 price and shows the 8-day MA.

As a short-term trader, if I’m looking to be a buyer, I like to buy as and when the current price crosses up above the RSI-7 day price. But as this chart shows, there were many conflicting signals or potential whipsaws. In that case – if I was looking to be a buyer – I’d first go to the RSI-7 day line shown here below the price graph and look for a trend-line break, which happened on or about March 21 and again on June 13.

This is not to say I was a buyer then, but just to show my thought processes.

I’d also go to the Stochastics (8,6,3) to see if there was a cross-over and new rising line, as a confirmation.

The other stock under review, Travelers Co, a property and casualty insurance company that is on my “preferred not to deal with list” simply because I don’t understand the company at all, has had a much smaller lift over six months. TRV is up +5.0% to $57.92 from $55.18 in the WIR#51 of Dec 19. TRV is down from its high of $64.17 on May 6.

(Look at) the same type of chart for TRV as done for BA.

I also look to the Weekly and Monthly data charts as well. If, and when, I make a decision to buy a particular stock, I then go to the 60-minute, 15-min and 1-min charts to help with the execution. I buy into strength and sell into weakness. Having already made my decision, I’m not concerned about going against the crowd. In fact, I try to use it to my advantage.

Precious metal stocks are a bit different in that I use my knowledge of the promoters’ tactics, the ‘street talk’, the latest news and drilling reports, the futures and cash prices of the metals, and the moves in the Euro and other currencies, prior to my trading. Those stocks are less liquid and so volume/price changes must also be studied.

Looking over the Value Line reports, for Boeing I noted:

• The analyst raised the 6-12 month (Technical) and 12+ month (Timeliness) ratings for BA in May-June from a ‘4’ (poor) to a ‘3’ (average.
• Net profit for 2012 is expected to be close to the all-time record profit, and then lift from there.
• Net profit this year is still a challenge for management.
• The 787 Dreamliner – promised to be delivered a long time ago – is finally going to fly commercially this summer.
• Total order backlog of commercial aircraft remains very strong, but Defense Department budget cuts may prove a burden.
• Dividends remain unchanged for the 3rd straight year.
• Because of the stock run-up in the past six months, the analyst is stating a more conservative 3-to-5-year outlook for the stock.

The company does have a lot of debt, which will lead to some pressure on earnings should interest rates start to lift, but that ought not be a major problem as 2012 earnings per share could set a record high.

Bottom line: I still like my $51 price target for this $74 stock. Maybe I should lift my target a bit, but at the moment I’ll be patient.

As for Travelers Cos (TRV $57.92), I highlighted the VL data and analyst notes as follows:

• The analyst has raised the 12+month (Timeliness) rating from a ‘3’ to ‘2’ which means market outperforming. They believe the operations are improving and the premiums will get a bump in price.
• VL raised their 2011 earnings projections from $6.20 to $6.50, which is a lot, and must be based on a belief that their average maturity bond yields will lift.

All I can see is a flat net earnings figure for a few years, down from previously higher levels, made to look better mostly because of share buy-backs i.e., fewer shares on which to base their EPS calculation. Who’s advising these people anyway? Citigroup? 🙂

I really have no interest in this company as I don’t understand the industry.


For WIR #38-2011 Sept 18

Boeing (BA) Sept 16 @ $65.38.

Travelers (TRV) Sept 16 @ $50.61.

In the last WIR, I chose to ignore the positive VL write-up on TRV, saying I had no interest in the stock of a company that was not growing. And for BA, I wrote: “Bottom line: I still like my $51 price target for this $74 stock. Maybe I should lift my target a bit, but at the moment I’ll be patient.”

For TRV, the price dropped from $57.92 (WIR price at June 17) to today’s price at $50.61, with an interim low of $46.62 on Aug 26.)

For BA, the interim price low was $56.01 on Aug 11, a drop from $74.16 (WIR price June 17 at $74.16).

So, it was right for me to be bearish at WIR#25 in mid-June, just like, for us, BA was a good buy in August.

The charts look to me that in the short-run BA has some higher prices ahead, but maybe the long-run picture still needs time to work through a cycle bottom.

The Daily data chart for Travelers (TRV), which is a Financial, shows under-performance to the S&P 500. The stock is also in an uptrend, which may stay intact for several weeks. That seems to be confirmed by the Weekly data chart.

As noted from the Value Line reports:

For BA:

• Balance sheet is not weak, but not strong either. At least it has improved in the past year.
• Operating margins and Return on Equity metrics remain very solid.
• Order book is very solid at about 3300 commercial aircraft.
• Net earnings should grow +15%/year for the next few years.
• Revenues will soon balloon as new 787 and 747 models will be shipped.
• Dividends will likely not grow this year, but probably will advance by 1 cent/quarter in 2012. The current yield is about 2.7%, which is better than I anticipate for the next several years.
• Defense dept cuts will be a negative but are manageable.
• Share price outlook for six month window was lowered Aug 5 from 2 (outperform) to a 3 (market perform).
• At current price of $65.38, and projected cash flow/sh this year at $6.45 and at $7.70 for 2012, the stock is under-valued on a normal P/CF basis, which traditionally has been ~12x.
• On a projected CF or E basis, I anticipate a run to $100 within 24 months. Along with the dividend, that would be a fine Total Return.

For TRV, the company took its first quarterly loss for many years this past quarter, and it was a rather large -$0.91/sh loss.

Lowering their 12-month price outlook from ‘3’ to a ‘4’ (market Under-perform) on July 29 and the 6-month outlook from a ‘2’ to a ‘3’ on Sept 2, VL opines “Travelers stock is now untimely”. The short-run chart doesn’t show me that, but in any case I’m never going to be a buyer. I have never understood the insurance business.


For WIR #51-2011 Dec. 18

Boeing (BA) Dec. 16 @ $71.01.

Travelers (TRV) Dec. 16 @ $57.28. I see that VL certainly got it wrong last quarter. Their “untimely” stock lifted from $50.61. But, I think all of us have been mistakes lately.

Maybe I’m just a perma-bull on Boeing (NOT!), but I think the 8-period EMA now being below the current price on the Monthly, Weekly and Daily price charts is bullish. Moreover the RSI-7 for all three shows me a bullish pattern.

The company just had a record sale of planes this week, and, while those planes won’t be flying any time soon, the management must be pretty high today.

The balance sheet is strong and continues to improve. While there hasn’t been an increase in dividends since 2008, and probably won’t be at least until 2013, that’s good optics for those who think the Defense Budget might get cut.

Value Line is projecting that after a flat earnings this year, earnings will likely grow +14% per year for maybe three years. That plus a solid $0.68 dividend (solid coming from the lots of cash in the bank plus low pay-out ratio), is good enough for me to want to buy the dips.

FD: we presently don’t have any holding of BA in the All-Weather or Growth portfolio.

From Dec. 5 on the global trade has been risk-off and stocks like TRV have out-performed. However, since I don’t understand the insurance business at all, or even their investment strategies, I will not comment further.

I will say that on Friday this week, VL dropped the 3-6 month price outlook of TRV from ‘4’ (dark clouds) to ‘5’ (hurricane approaching).

But they were wrong before on TRV so maybe they figure two wrongs could make it right. 🙂


For Mar. 18 WIR#12-2012, I noted the following:

BA current price: $75.20, up +5.9% from 13-weeks ago
TRV current price: $59.20, up +3.4% from 13-weeks ago
S&P 500: up +15.4% from 13-weeks ago

Boeing shareholders must have noticed the under-performance to the Industrials since March 9, and maybe this story has something to do with it:

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/03/16/us-boeing-idUSBRE82F19X20120316

James McNerney is one of my favorite CEOs, but does he really deserve personal compensation of $23 million a year? He probably also enjoys perks that maybe only Obama’s would exceed. Does a CEO really deserve or need more than say $10 million a year?

And, how about that former Boeing Exec. VP and current Ford Motor Co CEO Alan Mulally who recently was awarded compensation of over $50 million! Talk about an outrage.

I believe in pay for performance, but when your company has 171,000 employees, as does Boeing, there is a team thing going on. You know? And, when most of the team is making well under $100,000 a year, I don’t think a leader deserves anywhere close to $23 million or $50 million. That’s not capitalism; it’s out and out greed. In a true capitalist system, the shareholders would have control, and for sure they would not on their own be voting for annual compensation packages in the tens of millions. You know it and I know it. So, let’s cut the crapola about the benefits of capitalism.

It’s the old story: would you rather have shareholder control or management control?

We all know it’s the employees and shareholders, the corporate enablers and true risk takers, who get screwed. Over and over.

When my career started, CEO pay was about 25 times the average worker pay. By 2010, CEO pay had soared to 343 times as much.

This is not a global problem as much as it is an American one. When you compare the corporate revenue and profit and the worker vs CEO compensation of the Big Three US car manufacturers vs Toyota and Honda of Japan, you want to be sick.

http://bigthreeauto.procon.org/

For example, for Travelers Cos (TRV) and Boeing (BA): “In 2010, Jay S. Fishman received $20,415,060 in total compensation from Travelers. By comparison, the median worker made $33,840 in 2010. Jay S. Fishman made 603 times the median worker’s pay… In 2010, W. James McNerney Jr. received $19,740,023 in total compensation from Boeing, 583 times the median worker’s pay.”

Other Dow 30 company 2010 compensation awards (not included in Top 25 in America):

• JPM: James Dimon received $20,816,289 in total compensation, 615 times the median
• GE: Jeffrey Immelt received $21,428,765 in total compensation, 633 times the median
• PFE: Ian Read received $17,396,112 in total compensation, 514 times the median
• KO: Muhtar Kent received $24,782,017 in total compensation, 732 times the median
• MMM: George Buckley received $23,709,094 in total compensation, 700 times the median
• CSCO: John Chambers received $18,871,875 in total compensation, 557 times the median

The 2011 awards were very substantially higher.

Here is a list of the top 25 compensated CEOs in 2010: [see WIR #12]

I am not interested in bringing a socialistic solution to the table, but I do think the shareholders and employees of a company ought to have much more control of the compensation committee of these public companies. We need to discuss this matter in the Blog Discourse.

As to my comment about the recent quarter and Value Line report on Boeing:

• Technical rating (3-6 month price outlook) was lowered from ‘2’ (above average) to ‘3’ (average) on March 16
• The Dividend Yield, which is recently around 2.4% is anticipated to drop to ~1.7% on average during 2015-2017 because on an annual basis dividends are likely to increase only ~1.5% vs revenues and earnings of ~5.0% and ~12.0% respectively.
• 2012 revenue will likely grow 16% but earnings will drop from $4.82/share to ~$4.30/sh because of a massive pension plan charge. Presently the pension plan has assets of ~$51.1 billion and obligations of ~67.7 billion.
• US govt budget spending cut-backs in Defense will cost the industry about $1 trillion over ten years, which will negatively impact Boeing because it is one of the largest defense contractors.
• Commercial aircraft sales are in good shape and will get even better. Company revenues in total will grow from $68.7 billion in 2011 to about $94 billion in 2015-2017.
• Return on Shareholder Equity will likely drop from ~54% this year to ~33% in 2015-2017, but that would still be an excellent result.
• Onward and upward for Boeing in the years ahead, but traders will have to pay more attention to the technical indicators because BA is likely to fly and land along with most other stocks in the Dow 30 for the next year.

Here is the Monthly, and Daily chart for TRV in the solid blue line along with the $INSR (Insurance Industry index) in the orange solid thin line.

[See WIR#12]

For the past year and for most of the time between 1Q2003 and 2Q2007 (cycle top of US equity market), TRV under-performed the Insurance industry stocks ($INSR).

Value Line raised the 3-6 month stock price outlook [Technical] on March 16 from ‘4’ (under-performer) to a ‘3’ (market performer). But the 6-12+ month price outlook [Timeliness] is still a ‘4’ after being dropped on July 29, 2011.

Favorable Q/Q earnings are not expected to be reported until 2Q2012 results are out in mid-July.

VL analyst Alan House seems to think the company is well positioned to quickly grow profits out to 2015-2017 due to (i) strict underwriting standards, (ii) cost controls, and (iii) pricing power coming into the specialty products area. I wouldn’t be able to comment as I don’t understand the industry.

Unlike Boeing, Travelers is not a Cara 100 company. The financial strength is rated ‘A’ whereas I like an A+ or A++. Also, earnings predictability is too low for my liking, often coming in well under or well over consensus, which as I see it plays into the hands of insider traders. But mostly, I just have never understood the insurance business.


For Jun. 17 WIR#25-2012, I noted the following:

BA current price: $71.99, down -4.6% from $75.20 of 13 weeks ago, which had been up +5.9% from 13-weeks before that.

TRV current price: $63.41, up +7.3% from $59.20 of 13 weeks ago, which had been up +3.4% from 13-weeks before that.

S&P 500: down -4.7% from 13-weeks ago, which had been up +15.4% from 13-weeks before that.

So this was not a good quarter for the market or for the Boeing stock. Of course, as Value Line pointed out, earnings for the next three and possibly four comparable quarters will be disappointing on account of the company’s planned reserves for pension losses.

Boeing (BA) will reserve against unfunded pension liability in the next three or four quarters, which will possibly make the stock look bad. This all depends on the spin artists who move the stock, and not being in the room I have no idea how it will play out.

Re Travelers Company (TRV), I cannot write anything constructive because I don’t know how much of an off-balance sheet derivatives problem the company has or how many over-priced Treasury bonds or the average duration of those bonds. So, I don’t waste my time thinking about this company or the ones like it.

When the VL analyst (Alan House) opines “Travelers is well positioned for the long haul”, I suppose the house is in the room, if you get my point.

Starting this quarter, TR’s earnings are supposed to soar the company says. Let’s see how much improved their balance sheet reflects that. From investing in bonds?

In five of the past ten years, they have taken losses on the insurance business. In 2011, they took a loss of -6.4% on premiums, yet still managed to buy-back about 10% of their stock. I wish I could do that.

Then again, I’m not on the Bernanke and Geithner rolodex.

Of these two, stick with Boeing (BA). It didn’t come from sex in the Citi.

FD: We could hold BA as the company is in the Cara 100, but we don’t at present.


For Sept. 16 WIR#38-2012, I note the following:

BA current price: $71.28, down -0.79% over 13 weeks from $71.99, and down -5.25% from $75.20 over 26 weeks.

TRV current price: $68.58, up +8.65% over 13 weeks from $63.41, and up +16.34% from $59.20 over 26 weeks.

For comparison purposes, the S&P 500 has been up +10.32% and +5.34% over 13 and 26 weeks respectively.

BA has now had two bad quarters in a row. As Value Line pointed out, earnings for three and possibly four comparable quarters will be disappointing on account of the company’s planned reserves for pension losses, but then the comparable data should look better.

For Boeing, revenues are soaring. The shortfall in earnings is an accounting clean-up, so don’t be discouraged. The company is in great shape, with excellent management.

But the earnings reports in late Oct and Jan to come for the Q3 and Q4 are going to look miserable, so you want to be prepared to buy into weakness.

Earnings for 2013 will be outstanding. The high 2012 revenue growth will continue through 2013. I think the stock will be trading over $100/share before calendar year-end 2013, so my suggestion for those who trade long-term and who use options would be to write long-dated puts and buy long-dated calls with the premium from selling the puts, and do it every time the market and the stock get hammered.

On Aug 3, Value Line raised the 3-6 month price outlook (relative to the S&P 500) from an under-performing ‘4’ to an average performing ‘3’.

The best thing I can say about Travelers (TRV) is that the Directors seem to be on a mission to take the company private. In 2005 there were 693 million shares outstanding, which has dropped each year since then to 678, 623, 585, 520, 435, 393, and 380. By 2015-17, there is expected to be just 320 million shares outstanding. As long as their forward PE is down below 10 or 11, and institutions continue to own 85% of the stock, I have to believe you are going to make money with this one. Again, I’d simply use options overwriting, by selling calls at peaks and selling puts and buying more calls at the troughs of each price cycle.

What I trade it personally? No. It’s not in the Cara 100 because I don’t understand the business and never have had any interest in it.

Value Line’s analyst writes that the shares are near their 52-week high. Well, they hit their all-time high at about 10:15am ET on Friday.

The RSI-7 is now up to 83.5 and 88.7 for the Weekly and Daily, which is the market warning the insurer, I guess.


For Dec. 15 WIR#51-2012, I note the following:

BA current price: $74.02, which is up +3.84% over the past 13 weeks from $71.28, which had been down -0.79% over the prior 13 weeks from $71.99.

TRV current price: $73.37, which is up +6.98% over the past 13 weeks from $68.58, which had been up +8.65% over the prior 13 weeks from $63.41.

For comparison purposes, the S&P 500 has been down -3.48% over the past 13 weeks, so these two stocks have fared rather well recently.

BA will suffer a few bad quarters on account of the company’s planned reserves for pension losses, but after that the comparable data should look better.

Boeing has about four year backlog in its commercial airline order book, but impending cuts in the national defense budget ought to see some business lost there. But CEO James McNerney was on TV this week saying that, while he and almost every other major corporate CEO are concerned about the Fiscal Cliff issue, his company will be less affected one way or the other.

On Dec. 14, Value Line lowered the 6-12 month Timeliness rating from a ‘3’ (market perform) to a ‘4’ (under-perform).

Travelers (TRV $73.37) is trading close to its all-time high of $74.70 that was set Oct. 18.

Hurricane Sandy will knock down the operating performance this quarter, but otherwise the company would likely have enjoyed its best year ever. I believe 2013 will likely become the best ever.

The company seems well managed, but I don’t follow it for all the reasons I’ve discussed in these pages.


For Mar. 14 WIR#12-2013, I note the following:

BA current price: $86.43, which is up +16.77% over the past 13 weeks from $74.02, which was up +3.84% over the previous 13 weeks from $71.28, which had been down -0.79% over the prior 13 weeks from $71.99.This week BA soared +6.40% W/W to be the #1 Bullish performer in the Dow 30.

TRV current price: $82.28, which is up +12.14% over the past 13 weeks from $73.37, which was up +6.98% over the previous 13 weeks from $68.58, which had been up +8.65% over the prior 13 weeks from $63.41.

UNH current price: $54.73, which is up +1.26% over the past 13 weeks from $54.05.

For comparison purposes, the S&P 500 has been up +9.65% over the past 13 weeks, so two of these three stocks have fared rather well recently.

Here is the Weekly chart for BA ($86.43) in the solid blue line along with the XLI (Industrials ETF) in the green solid thin line and the $SPX in the orange solid thin line. BA has broken to the upside well ahead of the market and the Industrial sector and is now way over-bought (RSI-7w is at 85.44) and about to pull back to lead the -3% broad market sell-off I am forecasting over the next few weeks.

wir13_12.25.gif

Here is the Weekly chart for UNH in the solid blue line along with the $RXH (Health Care Provider Industry index) in the green solid thin line and the $SPX in the orange solid thin line. UNH has been under-performing the market and its peers over the past three quarters. Prior to that it was a big over-performer for a couple years.

wir13_12.26.gif

I don’t have the time or interest to do Travelers (TRV).

Travelers seems to be a share buy-back to make the per share revenues, earnings and dividends look good. I don’t see much happening in the company.

The TRV dividend yield is ~2.3%, which is not great for a company of this sort. But the dividends are increasing at a good rate and Value Line expects that to continue. VL also anticipates earnings to lift at a good rate this year and next – as they did in 2012. VL also likes the company balance sheet – if they even understand it – and in the past quarter have increased the 3-to-5 year price target from 80-100 to 95-120. But on Dec. 14 they lowered the 6-12 month price outlook from a ‘2’ (market out-performer) to a ‘3’ (market performer) and on Feb. 15 they lowered the 3-6 month outlook from a ‘3’ t a ‘4’ (market under-performer).

UnitedHealth Group is an acquisitor that seems to have overcome the serious problems of its company history as well as the Medicare cut-backs underway at this time. Revenues are growing fairly quickly and dividends are also although the yield is still too low at ~1.6%. The company needs to cut its long-term debt before interest rates start rising.

Since I started blogging in 2004, UNH has lifted its shareholder equity by 3.5x although its operating and net profit margins have fallen a bit and its return on shareholder equity has also dropped a bit from 20%-plus to ~17%.

I just cannot get my head into government supported insurance programs though. Not being a lobbyist, I’m out of the room out of the deal. That’s like playing poker with cards missing from the deck.

For Boeing, the company has been having all kinds of problems with broken dreams aka as grounded 787s and still needs to get its unfunded pension liability into line, and the stock is well ahead of its self at this point, but I still like the company – it is one of America’s finest – just not the stock.

Remember a company is not a stock. A stock is just a price.

The Defense Dept will have trouble cutting the budget, which ought to help Boeing. And Boeing’s commercial jet backlog continues to grow. Wait to see what happens after the US Dollar weakens, making sales (gifts to the world?) easier to come by.

We do not own Cara 100 BA at this point, but should it sell off a lot, I would not be concerned about adding it to the portfolio. In the past nine sessions, however, BA is up from about $77 to almost $87, and so anybody who buys it with an RSI-7w at 85.44 and a RSI-7d at 91.64 must be nuts.

The only thing that would change my mind is if the US govt would terminate the Lockheed F-35 $400 billion (actually it has to be over $1 trillion) F-35 programme – the one where there are 100 fighters built and exactly zero operational. Until the F-35’s actually work, the Boeing F/A-18 Super Hornet is still the favored plane.


The Dow 30 Company links in chronological order of the upcoming reports.

AT&T [GICS 50, Dow 30] [Value Line cycle 13, 26, 39 and 52]
(T: Google Finance file)
(T: Yahoo Finance file)
(T: StockChart chart)
(T: Investertech chart)
(T: ADVFN Financial Data)
(T: Profile)
(T: Value Line Report Dec. 21: next one is due Mar. 22)


Verizon [GICS 50, Dow 30] [Value Line cycle 13, 26, 39 and 52]
(VZ: Google Finance file)
(VZ: Yahoo Finance file)
(VZ: StockChart chart)
(VZ: Investertech chart)
(VZ: ADVFN Financial Data)
(VZ: Profile)
(VZ: Value Line Report Dec. 21: next one is due Mar. 22)


Cisco Systems [GICS 45, Dow 30, Cara 100] [Value Line cycle 13, 26, 39 and 52]
(CSCO: Google Finance file)
(CSCO: Yahoo Finance file)
(CSCO: StockChart chart)
(CSCO: Investertech chart)
(CSCO: ADVFN Financial Data)
(CSCO: Profile)
(CSCO: Value Line Report Dec. 21: next one is due Mar. 22)


Procter & Gamble [GICS 30, Dow 30, Cara 100] [Value Line cycle 1, 14, 27 and 40]
(PG: Google Finance file)
(PG: Yahoo Finance file)
(PG: StockChart chart)
(PG: Investertech chart)
(PG: ADVFN Financial Data)
(PG: Profile)
(PG: Value Line Report Dec. 28: next one is due Mar. 29)


Home Depot [GICS 25, Dow 30, Cara 100 (new Dec 2012)] [Value Line cycle 1, 14, 27 and 40]
(HD: Google Finance file)
(HD: Yahoo Finance file)
(HD: StockChart chart)
(HD: Investertech chart)
(HD: ADVFN Financial Data)
(HD: Profile)
(HD: Value Line Report Dec. 28: next one is due Mar. 29)


Hewlett-Packard [GICS 45, Dow 30] [Value Line cycle 2, 15, 28 and 41]
(HPQ: Google Finance file)
(HPQ: Yahoo Finance file)
(HPQ: StockChart chart)
(HPQ: Investertech chart)
(HPQ: ADVFN Financial Data)
(HPQ: Profile)
(HPQ: Value Line Report Jan. 4: next one is due Apr. 5)


IBM [GICS 45, Dow 30, Cara 100] [Value Line cycle 2, 15, 28 and 41]
(IBM: Google Finance file)
(IBM: Yahoo Finance file)
(IBM: StockChart chart)
(IBM: Investertech chart)
(IBM: ADVFN Financial Data)
(IBM: Profile)
(IBM: Value Line Report Jan. 4: next one is due Apr. 5)


Intel [GICS 45, Dow 30, Cara 100] [Value Line cycle 2, 15, 28 and 41]
(INTC: Google Finance file)
(INTC: Yahoo Finance file)
(INTC: StockChart chart)
(INTC: Investertech chart)
(INTC: ADVFN Financial Data)
(INTC: Profile)
(INTC: Value Line Report Jan. 4: next one is due Apr. 5)


Alcoa [GICS 15, Dow 30] [Value Line cycle 3, 16, 29 and 42]
(AA: Google Finance file)
(AA: Yahoo Finance file)
(AA: StockChart chart)
(AA: Investertech chart)
(AA: ADVFN Financial Data)
(AA: Profile)
(AA: Value Line Report Jan. 11: next one is due Apr. 12)


Dupont [GICS 15, Dow 30] [Value Line cycle 3, 16, 29 and 42]
(DD: Google Finance file)
(DD: Yahoo Finance file)
(DD: StockChart chart)
(DD: Investertech chart)
(DD: ADVFN Financial Data)
(DD: Profile)
(DD: Value Line Report Jan. 11: next one is due Apr. 12)


Merck [GICS 35, Dow 30, Cara 100] [Value Line cycle 3, 16, 29 and 42]
(MRK: Google Finance file)
(MRK: Yahoo Finance file)
(MRK: StockChart chart)
(MRK: Investertech chart)
(MRK: ADVFN Financial Data)
(MRK: Profile)
(MRK: Value Line Report Jan. 11: next one is due Apr. 12)


Pfizer [GICS 35, Dow 30, Cara 100] [Value Line cycle 3, 16, 29 and 42]
(PFE: Google Finance file)
(PFE: Yahoo Finance file)
(PFE: StockChart chart)
(PFE: Investertech chart)
(PFE: ADVFN Financial Data)
(PFE: Profile)
(PFE: Value Line Report Jan. 11: next one is due Apr. 12)


3M Company [GICS 20, Dow 30, ex-Cara US 100 June-06] [Value Line cycle 4, 17, 30 and 43]
(MMM: Google Finance file)
(MMM: Yahoo Finance file)
(MMM: StockChart chart)
(MMM: Investertech chart)
(MMM: ADVFN Financial Data)
(MMM: Profile)
(MMM: Value Line Report Jan. 18: next one is due Apr. 19)


General Electric [GICS 20, Dow 30, ex-Cara 100] [Value Line cycle 4, 17, 30 and 43]
(GE: Google Finance file)
(GE: Yahoo Finance file)
(GE: StockChart chart)
(GE: Investertech chart)
(GE: ADVFN Financial Data)
(GE: Profile)
(GE: Value Line Report Jan. 18: next one is due Apr. 19)


United Technologies [GICS 20, Dow 30, Cara 100] [Value Line cycle 4, 17, 30 and 43]
(UTX: Google Finance file)
(UTX: Yahoo Finance file)
(UTX: StockChart chart)
(UTX: Investertech chart)
(UTX: ADVFN Financial Data)
(UTX: Profile)
(UTX: Value Line Report Jan. 18: next one is due Apr. 19)


Coca Cola [GICS 30, Dow 30, Cara 100] [Value Line cycle 5, 18, 31 and 44]
(KO: Google Finance file)
(KO: Yahoo Finance file)
(KO: StockChart chart)
(KO: Investertech chart)
(KO: ADVFN Financial Data)
(KO: Profile)
(KO: Value Line Report Jan. 25: next one is due Apr. 26)


Wal-Mart [GICS 30, Dow 30, Cara 100] [Value Line cycle 6, 19, 32 and 45]
(WMT: Google Finance file)
(WMT: Yahoo Finance file)
(WMT: StockChart chart)
(WMT: Investertech chart)
(WMT: ADVFN Financial Data)
(WMT: Profile)
(WMT: Value Line Report Feb 1: next one is due May 3)


Disney [GICS 25, Dow 30, Cara 100] [Value Line cycle 7, 20, 33 and 46]
(DIS: Google Finance file)
(DIS: Yahoo Finance file)
(DIS: StockChart chart)
(DIS: Billcara2 chart)
(DIS: ADVFN Financial Data)
(DIS: Profile)
(DIS: Value Line Report Feb 8: next one is due May 10)


American Express [GICS 40, Dow 30] [Value Line cycle 8, 21, 34 and 47]
(AXP: Google Finance file)
(AXP: Yahoo Finance file)
(AXP: StockChart chart)
(AXP: Billcara2 chart)
(AXP: ADVFN Financial Data)
(AXP: Profile)
(AXP: Value Line Report Feb 15: next one is due May 17)


Bank of America [GICS 40, Dow 30] [Value Line cycle 8, 21, 34 and 47]
(BAC: Google Finance file)
(BAC: Yahoo Finance file)
(BAC: StockChart chart)
(BAC: Billcara2 chart)
(BAC: ADVFN Financial Data)
(BAC: Profile)
(BAC: Value Line Report Feb 15: next one is due May 17)


JP Morgan [GICS 40, Dow 30] [Value Line cycle 8, 21, 34 and 47]
(JPM: Google Finance file)
(JPM: Yahoo Finance file)
(JPM: StockChart chart)
(JPM: Billcara2 chart)
(JPM: ADVFN Financial Data)
(JPM: Profile)
(JPM: Value Line Report Feb 15: next one is due May 17)


Microsoft [GICS 45, Dow 30] [Value Line cycle 8, 21, 34 and 47]
(MSFT: Google Finance file)
(MSFT: Yahoo Finance file)
(MSFT: StockChart chart)
(MSFT: Billcara2 chart)
(MSFT: ADVFN Financial Data)
(MSFT: Profile)
(MSFT: Value Line Report Feb 15: next one is due May 17)


Johnson & Johnson [GICS 35, Dow 30, Cara 100] [Value Line cycle 9, 22, 35 and 48]
(JNJ: Google Finance file)
(JNJ: Yahoo Finance file)
(JNJ: StockChart chart)
(JNJ: Investertech chart)
(JNJ: ADVFN Financial Data)
(JNJ: Profile)
(JNJ: Value Line Report Feb. 22: next one is due May 24)


Caterpillar [GICS 20, Dow 30] [Value Line cycle 9, 22, 35 and 48]
(CAT: Google Finance file)
(CAT: Yahoo Finance file)
(CAT: StockChart chart)
(CAT: Investertech chart)
(CAT: ADVFN Financial Data)
(CAT: Profile)
(CAT: Value Line Report Feb. 22: next one is due May 24)


McDonalds [GICS 30, Dow 30, Cara 100] [Value Line cycle 10, 23, 36 and 49]
(MCD: Google Finance file)
(MCD: Yahoo Finance file)
(MCD: StockChart chart)
(MCD: Investertech chart)
(MCD: ADVFN Financial Data)
(MCD: Profile)
(MCD: Value Line Report Mar 1: next one is due May 31)


Chevron Corp [GICS 10, Dow 30] [Value Line cycle 11, 24, 37 and 50]
(CVX: Google Finance file)
(CVX: Yahoo Finance file)
(CVX: StockChart chart)
(CVX: Investertech chart)
(CVX: ADVFN Financial Data)
(CVX: Profile)
(CVX: Value Line Report Mar. 8: next one is due Jun. 7)


ExxonMobil [GICS 10, Dow 30, Cara 100] [Value Line cycle 11, 24, 37 and 50]
(XOM: Google Finance file)
(XOM: Yahoo Finance file)
(XOM: StockChart chart)
(XOM: Investertech chart)
(XOM: ADVFN Financial Data)
(XOM: Profile)
(XOM: Value Line Report Mar. 8: next one is due Jun. 7)


Boeing Co [GICS 20, Dow 30. Cara 100] [Value Line cycle 12, 25, 38 and 51]
(BA: Google Finance file)
(BA: Yahoo Finance file)
(BA: StockChart chart)
(BA: Investertech chart)
(BA: ADVFN Financial Data)
(BA: Profile)
(BA: Value Line Report Mar. 15: next one is due Jun. 14)


Travelers Co [GICS 40, Dow 30] [Value Line cycle 12, 25, 38 and 51]
(TRV: Google Finance file)
(TRV: Yahoo Finance file)
(TRV: StockChart chart)
(TRV: Investertech chart)
(TRV: ADVFN Financial Data)
(TRV: Profile)
(TRV: Value Line Report Mar. 15: next one is due Jun. 14)


UnitedHealth Group [GICS 35, Dow 30] [Value Line cycle 12, 25, 38 and 51]
(UNH: Google Finance file)
(UNH: Yahoo Finance file)
(UNH: StockChart chart)
(UNH: Investertech chart)
(UNH: ADVFN Financial Data)
(TRV: Profile)
(UNH: Value Line Report Mar. 15: next one is due Jun. 14)


While it is important to have an understanding of the financial summaries of the companies you invest in, I don’t think you need to be an expert financial analyst to become a great trader. In fact, details often get in the way. A successful trader has a big picture understanding of the macro-economic, corporate fundamental, quantitative data series, and stock price and volume technical picture.

In other words you need to know a little about a lot of things rather than have an expert understanding of one and very little about the rest of the factors that impact a company and its stock price.

Something for newbies to think about:

With respect to investing in general for most people, I think if you focus on just six to ten stocks and the reports of the same one or two analysts for each, you will be less likely to miss the nuances. The greater depth of understanding of the companies will help you better analyze the price charts. In other words, you’ll be able to gain control of your investments rather than get stuck on the road to perdition, flipping from one salesperson’s pitch to another.

With the help of the free Dow 30 quarter-yearly reports from Value Line, it’s not difficult to pick those 6 to 10 stocks, keep the reports and your notes in a hard-copy binder, plus carefully selected items from other analysts you can find on the Web and print out for your files.

To each his own because putting in the hours to study companies and stocks that don’t interest you at all is not going to work out. For me, a six-sector mix of Dow 30 companies like Chevron (CVX), Boeing (BA), Disney (DIS), Walmart (WMT), Merck (MRK) and Intel (INTC) would do the trick, although you might pay heed to what I have to say about the Energy market for 2013-14 and Intel has been suffering lately because of the negative impact the slow economy has had on pc sales, and the move to mobile devices.

That’s not to say you would want to stay fully invested in these stocks at all times if in fact you do follow them and buy them. Every stock has a price motion that swings from over-sold to over-bought. You don’t want to be buying them when they are over-bought and you want to buy them when they are over-sold.

As of August 3, 2012, these six stocks had an average market cap of $146.9 billion, an average RoE of 30.3, and average dividend yield of 2.71%, average Performance YTD and over 12 months of 15.89% and 34.73% respectively, an average beta of 0.873 (you sleep better), and an average PE multiple of 14.2 (vs Dow 30 average of ~17.5).

At times, all of these stocks will encounter operating and financial challenges, but on average if you buy to hold (as a core portfolio), adding to your positions at long-term cycle lows (Monthly price series data showing a RSI-7 under 30 and basing), writing puts at those entry points, and selling a bit and writing calls on the rest at long-term cycle highs (Monthly price series data showing a RSI-7 over 70 and peaking), then you will do well for Total Return (capital growth plus dividend and premium income) over 5-10-20 years.

And every three to five years or so, when there seems to be a market long-term cycle peak occurring, you might wish to revisit the composition of this list, possibly switching one of the stocks with a replacement of similar high quality but probably more current in terms of a growth story.

Also, try to understand what Value Line can do for you: For 1700 stocks in its universe, VL offers a Timeliness Ranking (6 to 12 month relative price outlook) and a Technical Ranking (3 to 6 month outlook) from 1 to 5.

http://www.valueline.com/About/Ranking_System.aspx

But VL is much more than a ranking system. It’s a discipline. Every quarter year, the empirical data is laid out in a consistent presentation along with notes from the covering analyst. Together with services like StockCharts, Finviz and ADVFN, you will find that VL gives you the tools you need for successful trading and managing wealth.

It may take years, but it really is worth the time and effort to get to know the companies you trade. After a while, you’ll appreciate the price motion of each stock and, with more confidence, you’ll be able to go with the flow, selling when the market is chasing the price, and then letting the price come to you when they are trying to sell it, and you may want it.

In other words, do the homework to find the companies with very high quality and then put yourself into selling in a seller’s market and being a buyer in a buyer’s market, as the real estate people like to say. To seize the opportunities without undue risk, you need to be prepared, and this is how to go about it.

Don’t let a salesperson yank your chain with every new idea that is a hot story: stick to your knitting and your goals and objectives will be reached.

People sometimes ask me why I don’t sell my story to Financial Entertainment TV. But these same people don’t understand that common sense in the form advocated by Charles Dow, and repeated often by me, is not exciting enough for today’s media.

You see; I have been writing the same things for years. In the 2005 WIR-13, I republished my public Dow 30 diary from Week 32-1999: Aug 14 (10973.65):

For years we’ve made the case that the market is a game that plays people. Without enough self-discipline to control one’s emotions, an investor will never be successful. He or she will simply be conned by every ‘head fake’ and outright deception that Wall Street can serve up in their constant pursuit of greed… Every individual investor has to have a plan and to work that plan. We’d like our Dow 30 Journal to carry a guarantee of investment success, but that’s not possible. What is absolutely certain however is that with just two things –“facts and common sense”– anybody can take on Wall Street and win… At the turn of the century, Charles Dow in fact said: “The man who is prudent and careful in carrying on a store, factory or real estate business seems to think that totally different methods should be employed in dealing with stocks. Nothing is further from the truth.”

All of this I re-published in Lessons From the Trader Wizard (2008), which has been published in an updated 2012 e-book version, available for under $10 at Amazon.com. I will likely update this book annually and self-publish it.


Sector ETF Summary for the US equity market

The most important sectors in my view are Energy (XLE), Industrials (XLI), Consumer Discretionary (XLY) and Financial (XLF). By overlaying them on the S&P 500 chart ($SPX), you can see more clearly the trend reversal points in the market over the past two years:

wir13_12.27.gif

You can also see from this chart that since the turn of the calendar year, these usual market leaders (XLE, XLI, XLY and XLF) are under-performing the market. The strong broad market indexes are being support by Defensive sectors like Health (IYH) and Consumer Staples (XLP).

Investors need to be cautious at this point.

Backgrounder:

Each week these numbers change dramatically. Trading short-term is now a prerequisite to risk management and long-term success, and, going up against Wall Street on a short-term basis is a difficult challenge at best.

With sector rotation and the extent of volatility affecting performance, you have to learn to trade. I repeat this statement every week.

The price performance tables that I show every day are for eleven GICS Sector Index Funds (ETF’s), including two for Technology (XLK and SMH), for a total of ten GICS sectors. They cover the full spectrum of the US equity market.

Table 1: Cara ETF List is sorted by price performance Week over Week (W/W), i.e. 1W%N.

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance
Symbol
Close 1Day
Change
1Day
%Change
1W
%Change

2W
%Change

4W
%Change

YTD
%Change

3M
%Change

6M
%Change

12M
%Change

XLF

18.45 0.00 0.00% 1.15% 4.59% 3.42% 9.37% 15.31% 13.33% 17.44%

XLE

79.60 -0.42 -0.52% 0.77% 2.33% 0.30% 9.04% 11.77% 3.96% 7.47%

XLB

39.85 -0.13 -0.33% 0.66% 3.48% 1.24% 3.56% 8.73% 3.91% 7.21%

IYH

93.95 -0.41 -0.43% 0.61% 2.67% 3.70% 10.41% 11.05% 12.30% 22.09%

XLU

38.13 -0.08 -0.21% 0.42% 1.68% 4.07% 7.23% 8.29% 4.35% 8.54%

XLI

41.97 -0.15 -0.36% 0.36% 2.62% 2.27% 8.14% 11.56% 11.15% 10.04%

SPY

155.83 -0.90 -0.57% 0.25% 2.45% 2.32% 6.69% 9.65% 5.83% 10.74%

IYZ

24.28 -0.17 -0.70% 0.12% 1.89% 0.33% -1.94% 0.29% -4.07% 7.58%

XLY

52.59 -0.36 -0.68% -0.06% 3.02% 3.36% 8.59% 12.25% 10.23% 17.84%

XLK

30.20 -0.25 -0.82% -0.30% 1.75% 1.34% 1.31% 5.26% -4.37% 0.70%

SMH

35.39 -0.62 -1.72% -0.31% 0.77% -1.09% 5.30% 8.76% 6.21% 0.28%

XLP

38.49 -0.36 -0.93% -0.34% 0.71% 2.48% 7.51% 7.04% 7.57% 13.88%

You can do a table like Table 1 (below) by entering the following string into the Summary window at Investertech.com and then clicking on the link for Performance. You can also add more ETFs – up to 30 in total. For a list of components to many ETFs, go to the AMEX.com and NYSE.com web sites, and click on ETFs.

SPY XLE XLB XLI XLY XLP IYH XLF XLK SMH IYZ XLU .

You can use this tool to set up personal watchlist charts by industry group and sub-groups.

Another chart you ought to be reviewing every week is the candleglance view from StockCharts.com:

http://stockcharts.com/scripts/php/candleglance.php?XLE,XLB,XLI,XLY,XLP,…
http://tinyurl.com/33m3ss4

Sector rotation is one study I spend hours doing every week.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sector_rotation

For a summary chart view, this presentation from StockCharts will save you lots of time.
http://stockcharts.com/scripts/php/candleglance.php?XLE,XLB,XLI,XLY,XLP,…
http://tinyurl.com/33m3ss4

Once involved, you’ll drill down into the nuances of this next chart (link), looking at the cyclical reversals and trying to see the drivers.
http://stockcharts.com/charts/performance/perf.html?[SECT]
http://tinyurl.com/ykk3oyc

The principles of sector rotation have been studied and written about for hundreds of years by many people. My work is based on the individual who mentored me in this subject and taught me more about investing and trading than any other, the late Ian Notley, my former associate. Notley is considered perhaps the finest trend and cycles analyst of the past 50 years. He was recruited to North America in the 1970’s by another friend of mine, Ian McAvity, editor of Deliberations, himself one of the world’s great trend and cycle analysts.

http://www.topline-charts.com/ian_mcavity.htm

The technical analysis work of both Ian’s was inspired by E.S. Coppock.

http://www.topline-charts.com/Encyclopedia/coppock_curve_interpretation.htm


Here’s the SPY Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:

SPY Monthly data: SPY Monthly Data

SPY Weekly data: SPY Weekly Data

SPY Daily data: SPY Daily Data


10 (energy: XLE) ETF Chart for Energy:XLE

15 (basic materials: XLB) ETF Chart for Basic Materials:XLB

20 (industrial: XLI) ETF Chart for Industrial:XLI

25 (consumer discretionary: XLY) ETF Chart for Energy:XLY

30 (consumer staples: XLP) ETF Chart for Consumer Staples:XLP

35 (healthcare: IYH) ETF Chart for Health Care:IYH

40 (financial: XLF) ETF Chart for 00Financial:XLF

45 (technology, semiconductor: SMH) ETF Chart for Technology, Semiconductor:SMH

50 (telecom: IYZ) ETF Chart for Telecom:IYZ

55 (utilities: XLU) ETF Chart for Utilities:XLU


Individual US Sector ETFs and Stocks Review

Sector 10 (energy: XLE, IYE, VDE, OIH, PBW and IXC)

Here’s the XLE Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:

XLE Monthly data: XLE Monthly Data

XLE Weekly data: XLE Weekly Data

XLE Daily data: XLE Daily Data

Table 2: Senior oil & gas equities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance
Symbol
Close 1Day
Change
1Day
%Change
1W
%Change

2W
%Change

4W
%Change

YTD
%Change

3M
%Change

6M
%Change

12M
%Change

PDS

9.090 0.470 5.45% 9.39% 11.12% -0.66% 5.94% 12.22% -2.15% -16.45%

CNQ

32.93 0.36 1.11% 5.68% 5.54% 5.68% 11.02% 17.27% -4.96% -4.72%

NE

37.82 0.45 1.20% 5.50% 6.93% -5.66% 4.62% 11.66% -1.82% -3.89%

PBR

17.81 0.41 2.36% 3.61% 20.58% 10.55% -9.13% -8.71% -26.34% -36.26%

SLB

79.40 0.65 0.83% 1.85% 2.27% -2.65% 11.20% 15.22% 2.32% 5.98%

SU

31.10 0.27 0.88% 1.77% 3.36% -3.30% -8.26% -4.04% -11.92% -6.33%

NFX

24.11 -0.06 -0.25% 1.64% 4.55% -14.23% -11.56% -6.41% -31.53% -33.03%

TLM

12.27 -0.18 -1.45% 1.57% -0.73% -1.92% 4.87% 10.04% -18.20% -7.88%

CVX

119.68 -0.32 -0.27% 0.94% 2.38% 3.43% 8.42% 11.00% 2.07% 8.77%

RIG

53.56 -0.20 -0.37% 0.64% 2.70% -9.68% 15.83% 19.96% 14.98% -4.60%

IMO

42.70 1.09 2.62% 0.57% 1.88% 1.45% -0.97% -0.79% -12.50% -7.25%

XOM

89.37 -0.46 -0.51% 0.45% -0.07% 0.96% 0.74% 1.46% -3.17% 3.81%

APA

75.68 0.20 0.26% 0.04% 2.62% -5.79% -6.27% -1.74% -18.17% -29.25%

TOT

50.81 -0.03 -0.06% -0.43% 1.48% 0.28% -3.35% -0.10% -6.79% -7.30%

PTR

135.67 -2.48 -1.80% -2.54% -0.15% -1.05% -6.94% -3.03% 4.89% -8.42%

CEO

188.32 0.32 0.17% -2.56% -1.97% -7.58% -16.89% -13.14% -7.72% -13.47%

The ETF for Oiler stocks is XLE. This week, XLE closed at 79.60, up +0.77% W/W. On Friday there was a loss of -0.52%.

Drillers Precision Drilling (PDS +9.4% W/W) and Noble (NE +5.5%) were strong. So too was Cdn Natural Resources (CNQ +5.7%).

Here is the Weekly chart of XLE (in solid blue with the 8-week EMA in dashed blue), and the $SPX in thin solid orange. Note that the 8-week EMA is up from 76.85 to 77.32 to 77.56 over the past couple weeks. The last price is 79.60, which is above the EMA-8w, is Bullish. The RSI-7w has lifted from 68.93 to 74.49 to 78.16, which reversed a short-length SELL Alert of two weeks ago. So the beat goes on – for now.

wir13_12.28.gif

The $WTIC gained +$1.53/bbl (+1.67% W/W) to 93.36.

This $WTIC Weekly chart is now Neutral. The price at 93.36 is close to the 8-week EMA at 93.24 and the RSI-7 has regained the 50-level at 52.15.

wir13_12.29.gif

FD: We moved from holding only hold one Energy stock in the All-Weather portfolio, which was CVX, to now holding CAM and CNQ as well as CVX.

Note that our equity positions are, by company policy, restricted to Cara 100 companies in the broad based portfolios. After we compiled new lists for a Cara Growth 100 and a Cara All-Weather 100, we decided to only discuss stocks in the Cara All-Weather 100 in the free blog. Clients and paying subscribers will have access to the other content.

For All-Weather, across all sectors we are in a much smaller individual position weighting (than the Growth portfolio) because this account invests in more of a balance of equities, bonds, precious metals and cash.

For Growth, we dropped trading value-oriented mega-cap stocks like XOM, CVX, PBR and CEO, and moved to a list of mid-cap stocks of companies that have demonstrated faster growth in recent years. We did the same for all sectors.

Here is a candleglance chart of 10 important Sector 10 components:

http://stockcharts.com/scripts/php/candleglance.php?XOM,PTR,CVX,PBR,TOT,…

Here below is the list of the Cara 100 companies in this sector along with their stock tickers.

CAM Cameron International
CEO CNOOC
CNQ Canadian Natural Resources
CVX Chevron
EPD Enterprise Products Partners LP
NOV National-Oilwell Varco
SLB Schlumberger
SU Suncor Energy
XOM Exxon Mobil

For the Energy (Oil & Gas industries) Sector, the market cap (Feb 1, 2012) of these nine Cara All-Weather 100 stocks was $1.02 trillion.

Note that one of these stocks (EPD Enterprise Products Partners LP) could be considered a pipeline stock in the Utilities sector if you happen to be trying to balance your portfolio.

Another new one, CAM Cameron International is a deep water driller that recently entered a venture with Schlumberger.

NOV National Oilwell Varco is real big in the shale oil & gas industry, which you know I like. We also added several of those players to the Growth portfolio.

I’ll try to update this data once a quarter from now on.

As you know by now, there is a difference between a company and a stock. At times, you can be invested in a great company but the stock is a disappointment.

A stock is a price set in the market. It could change minute to minute depending on various price drivers, some of which have little or nothing to do with the corporation. That price might be materially different that say a consensus valuation of enterprise value of the company, which in turn might be materially different than one company or individual might be prepared to pay to acquire the whole company.

But, first and foremost I believe in investing in the shares of the highest quality companies – just like I believe that we must choose our friends wisely. Track records like price trends tend to persist. For a Cara 100 company, I select only those that trade its shares on the NYSE or NASDAQ, which requires a high level of transparency and where the information is easy to come by. Most major Canadian companies and a great many international companies are dually listed on these exchanges in the US too. I try to build the Cara 100, which is where I invest, with an international flavor, which helps me diversify risk and also observe many different operating environments simultaneously, which also helps me better interpret the macro-economic data we get.

A Cara 100 company has to have a strong balance sheet and a strong Board of directors and management team, the CEO in particular. Compared to the peer group, the operating and net profit margins must be at or near the highest, the Return on Shareholder Equity up there as well, generally close to or above 20%. I need to see acceptable growth rates in revenues, cash flow, earnings, dividends and book value.

These figures are easy to get. FINVIZ.com does a good job of that.

As for the price data charts I find best, I like StockCharts.com. A full range of information comes from 4-traders.com.

Cara 100 Sector 10 (Energy) list:

CAM Cameron International [GICS 10, Cara All-Weather 100]

(Profile)
(Quotes)
(News)
(Calendar)
(Financials)
(Technical Analysis)
(Fundamental Analysis)
(Consensus Analysis)


CEO CNOOC [GICS 10, Cara All-Weather 100]

(Profile)
(Quotes)
(News)
(Calendar)
(Financials)
(Technical Analysis)
(Fundamental Analysis)
(Consensus Analysis)


CNQ Canadian Natural Resources [GICS 10, Cara All-Weather 100]

(Profile)
(Quotes)
(News)
(Calendar)
(Financials)
(Technical Analysis)
(Fundamental Analysis)
(Consensus Analysis)


CVX Chevron Corp [GICS 10, Cara All-Weather 100]

(Profile)
(Quotes)
(News)
(Calendar)
(Financials)
(Technical Analysis)
(Fundamental Analysis)
(Consensus Analysis)


EPD Enterprise Products Partners LP [GICS 10, Cara All-Weather 100]

(Profile)
(Quotes)
(News)
(Calendar)
(Financials)
(Technical Analysis)
(Fundamental Analysis)
(Consensus Analysis)


NOV National-Oilwell Varco [GICS 10, Cara All-Weather 100]

(Profile)
(Quotes)
(News)
(Calendar)
(Financials)
(Technical Analysis)
(Fundamental Analysis)
(Consensus Analysis)


SLB Schlumberger [GICS 10, Cara All-Weather 100]

(Profile)
(Quotes)
(News)
(Calendar)
(Financials)
(Technical Analysis)
(Fundamental Analysis)
(Consensus Analysis)


SU Suncor Energy Inc [GICS 10, Cara All-Weather 100]

(Profile)
(Quotes)
(News)
(Calendar)
(Financials)
(Technical Analysis)
(Fundamental Analysis)
(Consensus Analysis)


XOM Exxon Mobil Corp [GICS 10, Cara All-Weather 100]

(Profile)
(Quotes)
(News)
(Calendar)
(Financials)
(Technical Analysis)
(Fundamental Analysis)
(Consensus Analysis)


http://tinyurl.com/3m4est9
http://tinyurl.com/3c8sxec

Integrated Oil & Gas – Canada

Oil & Gas Exploration & Production -Canada

Info from SeekingAlpha.com this week

10 Chevron (CVX) Mar13: 4:47 PM A barge and a Chevron (CVX) pipeline are on fire and an oil slick is visible in the waters of a bayou south of New Orleans after a tug pushing the barge crashed into the pipeline last night. CVX says it has shut in the pipeline, products are being rerouted, and it has mobilized emergency crews to help with the response. 9:36 AM Chevron (CVX) is in talks with potential buyers for Canada’s first exports of liquefied natural gas, paving the way for a $15B project that would open up a new route for North American gas to Asia, FT reports. CVX CEO John Watson says the project, a JV with Apache (APA), already has gained an export license. He seems keen to price the gas in relation to oil rather than lower-priced natural gas. Mar12: 5:45 PM Chevron (CVX) plans to invest $36.7B to increase its oil and gas production this year, but only ~25% will be spent in the U.S., CEO John Watson tells CNBC. Increasing the proportion of money CVX puts into the U.S. will depend on more acreage being made available for exploration, easier permitting and more prudent environmental regulations.

10 Enterprise Products Partners LP (EPD) Mar12:7:45 AM Enterprise Product Partners (EPD) receives the transportation commitments necessary to support development of a 270-mile Gulf Coast ethane pipeline. It will originate at the company’s Mont Belvieu, TX facility and transport ethane to multiple petrochemical plants in Texas and Louisiana.

10 Exxon Mobil (XOM) Mar11: 9:52 AM Exxon Mobil (XOM -0.3%) says it has started production from the Telok natural gas field, located offshore Malaysia in the South China Sea. The Telok A platform is the first phase of the Telok natural gas project, which will consist of two four-legged unmanned gas satellite platforms; a total of 14 development wells are planned.


Sector 15 (basic materials: IYM, XLB, IGE and VAW)

Here’s the XLB Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:

XLB Monthly data:

XLB Monthly Data

XLB Weekly data:

XLB Weekly Data
XLB Daily Data

Table 3: Senior Basic Materials:
XLB Daily data:

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance
Symbol
Close 1Day
Change
1Day
%Change
1W
%Change

2W
%Change

4W
%Change

YTD
%Change

3M
%Change

6M
%Change

12M
%Change

DOW

33.81 0.14 0.42% 3.17% 6.29% 4.06% 2.30% 7.61% 4.84% -3.40%

CCJ

21.42 0.30 1.42% 2.05% 2.54% -0.37% 5.93% 10.24% -1.43% -7.15%

POT

40.89 -0.04 -0.10% 1.77% 3.23% -2.18% -1.02% -0.05% -3.97% -4.62%

FCX

33.80 0.64 1.93% 1.56% 7.34% -4.87% -3.90% 0.06% -20.73% -11.86%

MT

14.81 -0.20 -1.33% 0.61% 2.00% -10.13% -17.03% -12.57% -14.49% -28.11%

AA

8.630 0.080 0.94% 0.23% 2.25% -7.10% -4.00% -1.26% -12.30% -16.62%

TS

40.78 -0.27 -0.66% -0.20% 0.39% 0.20% -4.72% 3.42% -8.38% -0.56%

BHP

72.96 0.50 0.69% -0.84% -1.31% -9.02% -8.72% -4.39% 0.94% -1.88%

TCK

29.98 0.48 1.63% -1.90% -0.96% -12.21% -21.15% -15.95% -11.90% -16.16%

NUE

46.60 0.17 0.37% -2.20% 5.03% -3.38% 4.06% 10.22% 14.36% 7.25%

RIO

49.98 0.14 0.28% -2.27% -3.42% -14.05% -16.59% -8.99% -6.02% -10.69%

FBR

11.27 -0.08 -0.70% -2.51% -1.23% -4.00% -6.55% 3.11% 18.51% 32.59%

PKX

74.14 -1.77 -2.33% -5.54% -7.74% -11.01% -13.04% -8.89% -13.16% -16.73%

VALE

17.55 -0.05 -0.28% -5.80% -5.39% -11.32% -18.33% -10.91% -9.35% -25.86%

GGB

7.690 -0.170 -2.16% -6.22% -4.59% -13.89% -18.19% -12.01% -25.92% -27.59%

The ETF for Basic Materials stocks is XLB. These are the producers of commodities and related products.

This week, XLB gained +0.66% W/W. The close was 39.85. There was a loss of -0.33% on Friday.

The leader was Dow Chemical (DOW +3.2% W/W).

Here is the Weekly chart of XLB (in solid blue @ 39.85 with the 8-week EMA @ 38.96 in dashed blue), and the $SPX in thin solid orange. That is a Bullish chart. The RSI-7 is at a Bullish 69.55.

wir13_12.30.gif

FD: In All-Weather portfolios, we hold DOW as well as LYB (LyondellBasell) this week, as well as the precious metals related AGI, CEF, FCX, MUX, NGD, RGLD, and SLW. We believe that precious metals are almost finished their cycle-bottom pattern and will soon lead the market higher. We are trading some of the precious metals stocks in the Cara Growth 100 here as well. When we see the Bull move take hold we will be switching a large % of our holding in CEF to the other stocks, but presently it is still a bit too early for that, we believe.

Here below is the list of the new Cara All-Weather 100 companies in this sector along with their stock tickers. LyondellBasell (LYB) was added and I switched out New Gold (NGD) for Silver Wheaton (SLW), keeping NGD in the Growth list.

BHP BHP Billiton
CEF Central Fund Of Canada
DOW Dow Chemical
FBR Fibria Celulose
FCX Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold
GGB Gerdau
NUE Nucor
POT Potash Corp Of Sask
SLW Silver Wheaton
TCK Teck Resources Ltd
TS Tenaris
VALE Vale

As at Jan. 25, 2013, the total market cap of the 12 Cara All-Weather 100 stocks in this sector was $520.5 billion. Over 50% of the total is attributed to two stocks, BHP and VALE, and BHP is by far the biggest of those two.

As for the price data charts I find best, I like StockCharts.com. A full range of information comes from 4-traders.com.

Cara 100 Sector 15 (Basic Materials) list:

BHP BHP Billiton Ltd [GICS 15, Cara All-Weather 100]

(Profile)
(Quotes)
(News)
(Calendar)
(Financials)
(Technical Analysis)
(Fundamental Analysis)
(Consensus Analysis)


DOW Dow Chemical Co [GICS 15, Cara All-Weather 100]

(Profile)
(Quotes)
(News)
(Calendar)
(Financials)
(Technical Analysis)
(Fundamental Analysis)
(Consensus Analysis)


FBR Fibria [Votorantim] Celulose [GICS 15, Cara All-Weather 100]

(Profile)
(Quotes)
(News)
(Calendar)
(Financials)
(Technical Analysis)
(Fundamental Analysis)
(Consensus Analysis)


FCX Freeport McMoRan [GICS 15, Cara All-Weather 100]

(Profile)
(Quotes)
(News)
(Calendar)
(Financials)
(Technical Analysis)
(Fundamental Analysis)
(Consensus Analysis)


GGB Gerdau SA [GICS 15, Cara All-Weather 100]

(Profile)
(Quotes)
(News)
(Calendar)
(Financials)
(Technical Analysis)
(Fundamental Analysis)
(Consensus Analysis)


LYB LyondellBasell [GICS 15, Cara All-Weather 100]

(Profile)
(Quotes)
(News)
(Calendar)
(Financials)
(Technical Analysis)
(Fundamental Analysis)
(Consensus Analysis)


NUE Nucor Corp [GICS 15, Cara All-Weather 100]

(Profile)
(Quotes)
(News)
(Calendar)
(Financials)
(Technical Analysis)
(Fundamental Analysis)
(Consensus Analysis)


POT Potash Cp of Saskatchewan [GICS 15, Cara All-Weather 100]

(Profile)
(Quotes)
(News)
(Calendar)
(Financials)
(Technical Analysis)
(Fundamental Analysis)
(Consensus Analysis)


SLW Silver Wheaton [GICS 15, Cara All-Weather 100]

(Profile)
(Quotes)
(News)
(Calendar)
(Financials)
(Technical Analysis)
(Fundamental Analysis)
(Consensus Analysis)


TCK Teck-Cominco Ltd [GICS 15, Cara All-Weather 100]

(Profile)
(Quotes)
(News)
(Calendar)
(Financials)
(Technical Analysis)
(Fundamental Analysis)
(Consensus Analysis)


TS Tenaris SA [GICS 15, Cara All-Weather 100]

(Profile)
(Quotes)
(News)
(Calendar)
(Financials)
(Technical Analysis)
(Fundamental Analysis)
(Consensus Analysis)


VALE Companhia Vale Do Rio [GICS 15, Cara All-Weather 100]

(Profile)
(Quotes)
(News)
(Calendar)
(Financials)
(Technical Analysis)
(Fundamental Analysis)
(Consensus Analysis)


http://tinyurl.com/3uyrm6k
http://tinyurl.com/3hwo6k7

Here is the current candleglance chart of 10 important Sector 15 components:

http://stockcharts.com/scripts/php/candleglance.php?BHP,VALE,RIO,MT,DOW,…

Info from SeekingAlpha.com this week

15 BHP Billiton (BHP) Mar13: 6:39 AM BHP (BHP) has denied any wrongdoing associated with its sponsorship of the Beijing Olympics, saying that it believes its “activities complied with all applicable law.” BHP’s comments came after Australian police and U.S. authorities opened an investigation into bribery allegations against BHP in relation to the games, which took place in 2008. Shares -0.2% premarket. Mar12: 11:56 AM BHP Billiton (BHP) is the subject of a joint U.S.-Australian criminal bribery investigation into alleged inducements, hospitality or gifts given to foreign officials including Chinese dignitaries, as part of a multimillion-dollar hospitality and sponsorship program for the 2008 Beijing Olympics. Authorities allege BHP broke several laws, including the U.S. Foreign Corrupt Practices Act.

15 Dow Chemical (DOW) Mar14: 10:01 AM Dow Chemical (DOW +0.6%) intends to raise almost $1.5B from selling assets over the next year and a half, and has put its polypropylene licensing & catalysts business and its plastics additives unit up for sale. Dow describes the move as being part of its “rigorous focus on return on capital;” since 2009, the company has sold non-core businesses representing about $8B in revenue.

15 Potash (POT) Mar13: 2:57 PM Potash (POT -1.5%) seeks to soothe Israeli fears over a possible acquisition of Israel Chemicals, Globes says, as opponents use deal talk for political purposes in upcoming local elections. POT believes Israel Chemicals has no choice but to merge if it wants to stay relevant in the global fertilizer market in coming years.

15 Vale (VALE) Mar14: 9:43 AM Vale (VALE -0.2%) reportedly hires BAML to sell minority stakes in two of its undeveloped Australian coal assets, including the Belvedere project in Queensland state. Belvedere could require $2B of investment, and is due to be completed in 2016; initial production is forecast at up to 2M tons/year of coal, rising to 7M tons later. Mar13: 3:33 PM Vale (VALE -3.6%) plans to sell the Rio Colorado fertilizer project in Argentina to recoup the $2.2B it has invested in the suspended potash mine, railroad and port complex, Reuters reports. A sale would come just four years after Vale bought the project, then in the feasibility study phase, from Rio Tinto as part of an $850M deal. Mar11: 2:24 PM Vale (VALE +0.3%) confirms it is suspending investments in its $6B Rio Colorado potash project in Argentina, which it says is not “in line with Vale’s commitment to discipline in capital allocation.” The project has been plagued with cost overruns due to inflation which has raised labor and materials expenses.


Sector 20 (industrial: IYJ, XLI, VIS, and IYT)

Here’s the XLI Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:

XLI Monthly data: XLI Monthly Data

XLI Weekly data: XLI Weekly Data

XLI Daily data: XLI Daily Data

Table 4: Senior capital goods makers and transportation:

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance
Symbol
Close 1Day
Change
1Day
%Change
1W
%Change

2W
%Change

4W
%Change

YTD
%Change

3M
%Change

6M
%Change

12M
%Change

BA

86.43 1.81 2.14% 6.40% 11.84% 15.35% 12.14% 16.77% 21.25% 14.58%

TXT

31.05 -0.10 -0.32% 2.14% 9.06% 5.33% 21.86% 27.99% 9.49% 12.05%

ABB

23.17 0.22 0.96% 1.49% 2.30% 2.34% 9.34% 13.80% 15.68% 10.33%

UTX

93.28 -0.17 -0.18% 1.31% 3.49% 4.00% 11.05% 16.63% 13.14% 7.35%

UPS

85.47 -0.16 -0.19% 1.22% 3.14% 3.36% 12.00% 17.32% 16.00% 8.27%

FDX

109.07 0.23 0.21% 1.18% 3.50% 2.36% 15.72% 21.07% 20.99% 15.28%

MMM

106.40 0.38 0.36% 0.65% 2.53% 3.52% 12.26% 15.30% 13.22% 18.22%

ERJ

34.83 -0.73 -2.05% 0.49% 2.41% 6.03% 19.94% 41.30% 22.64% 13.08%

FLR

64.48 -0.31 -0.48% 0.26% 6.56% -0.14% 5.70% 12.94% 7.20% 3.42%

PAYX

33.99 -0.26 -0.76% 0.00% 1.92% 0.80% 6.72% 0.83% -1.36% 6.99%

HON

73.46 -0.35 -0.47% -0.33% 4.87% 4.81% 13.45% 19.35% 20.39% 20.72%

GE

23.44 -0.25 -1.06% -1.39% 1.08% 0.13% 9.84% 8.42% 6.02% 16.27%

JOY

62.13 0.44 0.71% -1.58% 0.11% -0.96% -5.86% 0.79% 0.86% -20.92%

CAT

88.83 0.13 0.15% -1.86% -2.77% -7.54% -4.99% -0.19% -4.66% -21.70%

CMI

117.36 0.08 0.07% -1.90% 2.01% -1.15% 3.52% 10.40% 14.36% -7.58%

The ETF for Industrial and Transportation stocks is XLI. These are the users of commodities and related products as well as the freight transportation systems that move commodities and business packages to markets around the world.

This week, XLI gained +0.79% W/W to close at 41.97.

The biggest mover was Boeing (BA +6.4% W/W and +11.8% over two weeks).

I review Boeing this week in the Value Line section.

FD: In the All-Weather portfolios, we hold ABB, ERJ and MMM.

Here is the Weekly chart of XLI (in solid blue @ 41.97 with the 8-week EMA @ 40.76 in dashed blue), and the $SPX in thin solid orange. The Bulls are still running here, but the Weekly RSI-7 is up from 77.77 to 83.97 to 85.65 over the past couple weeks, which is very high.

wir13_12.31.gif

Here below is the list of the Cara 100 companies in this sector along with their stock tickers.

ABB Abb Ltd
CAN Accenture
BA Boeing
CAT Caterpillar
CMI Cummins Inc.
ERJ Embraer
HUB.B Hubbell Inc B
JOY Joy Global
MMM 3M Company
PWR Quanta Services
UTX United Technologies

As at Jan. 25, 2013, the total market cap of the 11 Cara All-Weather 100 stocks in this sector was $368.0 billion. Of the total there were six stocks (UTX, MMM, CAT, BA, ABB and ACN (in that order) with a total cap of $367 billion.

As for the price data charts I find best, I like StockCharts.com. A full range of information comes from 4-traders.com.

Cara 100 Sector 20 (Industrials and Transports) list:

ABB ABB Ltd [GICS 20, Cara All-Weather 100]

(Profile)
(Quotes)
(News)
(Calendar)
(Financials)
(Technical Analysis)
(Fundamental Analysis)
(Consensus Analysis)


ACN Accenture [GICS 20, Cara All-Weather 100]

(Profile)
(Quotes)
(News)
(Calendar)
(Financials)
(Technical Analysis)
(Fundamental Analysis)
(Consensus Analysis)


BA Boeing Co [GICS 20, Cara All-Weather 100]

(Profile)
(Quotes)
(News)
(Calendar)
(Financials)
(Technical Analysis)
(Fundamental Analysis)
(Consensus Analysis)


CAT Caterpillar [GICS 20, Cara All-Weather 100]

(Profile)
(Quotes)
(News)
(Calendar)
(Financials)
(Technical Analysis)
(Fundamental Analysis)
(Consensus Analysis)


CMI Cummins Inc [GICS 20, Cara All-Weather 100]

< a href=”http://www.4-traders.com/CUMMINS-INC-12214/”>(Profile)
(Quotes)
(News)
(Calendar)
(Financials)
(Technical Analysis)
(Fundamental Analysis)
(Consensus Analysis)


ERJ Embraer-Empresa Brasil [GICS 20, Cara All-Weather 100]

(Profile)
(Quotes)
(News)
(Calendar)
(Financials)
(Technical Analysis)
(Fundamental Analysis)
(Consensus Analysis)


HUB.B Hubbell [GICS 20, Cara All-Weather 100]

(Profile)
(Quotes)
(News)
(Calendar)
(Financials)
(Technical Analysis)
(Fundamental Analysis)
(Consensus Analysis)


JOY Joy Global [GICS 20, Cara All-Weather 100]

(Profile)
(Quotes)
(News)
(Calendar)
(Financials)
(Technical Analysis)
(Fundamental Analysis)
(Consensus Analysis)


MMM 3M [GICS 20, Cara All-Weather 100]

(Profile)
(Quotes)
(News)
(Calendar)
(Financials)
(Technical Analysis)
(Fundamental Analysis)
(Consensus Analysis)


PWR Quanta Services Inc [GICS 20, Cara All-Weather 100]

(Profile)
(Quotes)
(News)
(Calendar)
(Financials)
(Technical Analysis)
(Fundamental Analysis)
(Consensus Analysis)


UTX United Technologies [GICS 20, Cara All-Weather 100]

(Profile)
(Quotes)
(News)
(Calendar)
(Financials)
(Technical Analysis)
(Fundamental Analysis)
(Consensus Analysis)


http://tinyurl.com/3z2wq7l

The Industrials, Base Materials and Energy sectors are typically the three sectors that are most inversely correlated to the US Dollar.

The US, Swiss and Brazilian companies in the Industrial sector, like the others, get most of their income from abroad. They are also producers and/or transporters of commodities, which increase in price as the Dollar falls.

Here is the current candleglance chart of 10 important Sector 20 components:

http://stockcharts.com/scripts/php/candleglance.php?GE,UTX,UPS,MMM,CAT,A…

To check on general and detailed info for the Industrials group, the Thomson Reuters service is a good one:

http://www.reuters.com/sectors/industries/significant?industryCode=52442

Here is the link to all sectors and industries as classified by Reuters:

http://www.reuters.com/assets/siteindex#sectorsAndIndustries

Info from SeekingAlpha.com this week

20 Boeing (BA) Mar15: 3:12 AM Boeing’s (BA) 787 could restart flights “in weeks, not in months,” the company says after detailing a “permanent fix” for its lithium-ion battery problems that “addresses all (the) causal factors” which led to two burn-outs. Boeing will put the batteries in stainless steel cases, and add extra insulation, spacers and heat-resistant sleeving. Boeing has also asked suppliers Yuasa and Thales to improve production standards. Mar14: 8:56 AM Boeing (BA +0.15%) receives an order for six 777-300 extended range jets from Swiss International Air Lines in a deal valued at $1.9B at list prices. Meanwhile, Boeing plans to give a briefing in Tokyo tomorrow to “provide details on the proposed permanent solution to the 787 battery issue.” The location indicates the importance that the plane maker places on ensuring the happiness of two of its biggest customers, Japan Airlines and All Nippon Airways. Mar12: 5:08 PM Boeing (BA) receives FAA approval for the company’s plan to test and certify improvements to the 787’s battery system. Successful completion of each step within the plan will result in the FAA’s approval to resume commercial 787 flights. Mar12: 7:00 AM Boeing (BA) has reportedly received an $18B order from Dublin-based Ryanair for 200 jets in a deal that is set to be confirmed next week, when Irish Taoiseach Enda Kenny visits the White House. It’s not clear whether Ryanair will acquire the 737-800 or Boeing’s new ‘Max’ model. The booking would be one of Boeing’s largest ever and presumably mark the end a feud that goes back to 2009 over a collapsed order.

20 United Technologies (UTX) Mar15: 12:36 PM United Technologies (UTX +0.3%) reaffirms its outlook for 2013, expecting an EPS of between $5.85 to $6.15, on sales of $64B to $65B. The company also continues to anticipate cash flow from operations less capital expenditures will be equal to or in excess of net income attributable to common shareowners. Mar12: 3:42 PM United Technologies (UTX +0.2%) gets some positive press from UBS today, who reiterated its Buy rating and raises its price target from $91 to $105. The firm says is the stock poised for an upside move, citing easing order comps, increased earnings visibility and solid free cash flow.


Sector 25 (consumer discretionary: XLY, IYC and VCR)

Here’s the XLY Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:

XLY Monthly data: XLY Monthly Data

XLY Weekly data: XLY Weekly Data

XLY Daily data: XLY Daily Data

Table 5: Senior consumer discretionary equities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance
Symbol
Close 1Day
Change
1Day
%Change
1W
%Change

2W
%Change

4W
%Change

YTD
%Change

3M
%Change

6M
%Change

12M
%Change

KSS

49.32 0.24 0.49% 5.70% 6.82% 4.98% 16.84% 12.60% -7.64% -3.52%

BBBY

60.93 0.17 0.28% 2.63% 7.03% 3.73% 8.51% 4.65% -14.90% -7.05%

JCP

15.48 0.09 0.58% 2.45% -12.49% -22.37% -25.72% -26.22% -46.29% -58.15%

LVS

53.59 0.27 0.51% 2.39% 4.44% 0.36% 9.93% 15.57% 14.63% -6.82%

MCD

99.67 0.36 0.36% 0.97% 4.17% 6.53% 10.60% 12.14% 8.69% 1.66%

TGT

66.80 -0.54 -0.80% 0.68% 4.16% 5.88% 13.57% 10.41% 3.29% 13.70%

DIS

57.58 -0.17 -0.29% 0.33% 4.07% 4.92% 12.68% 18.31% 9.99% 32.46%

TM

103.93 0.39 0.38% 0.23% 1.21% 1.26% 8.27% 20.96% 24.95% 21.78%

NKE

54.78 0.09 0.16% 0.16% -0.07% 0.29% 5.67% 13.04% 13.37% -1.07%

SNA

81.23 -0.13 -0.16% -0.90% 1.97% 2.60% 0.46% 4.29% 10.62% 30.64%

SBUX

57.66 -0.02 -0.03% -1.72% 5.08% 3.80% 4.84% 8.06% 14.27% 8.65%

CCL

34.95 -0.78 -2.18% -2.02% -2.51% -6.43% -6.80% -7.34% -7.93% 7.90%

WHR

115.20 -2.29 -1.95% -2.17% 0.74% 3.78% 7.49% 15.08% 38.23% 46.16%

BC

34.35 -0.47 -1.35% -3.05% -5.37% -6.40% 10.27% 31.31% 34.92% 28.65%

TTM

27.36 -0.31 -1.12% -3.25% 2.36% 0.40% -8.00% 3.52% 7.67% -5.23%

AMZN

261.82 -3.92 -1.48% -4.51% -1.48% -2.76% 1.75% 5.07% 0.21% 41.96%

EBAY

50.41 -1.39 -2.68% -5.12% -8.18% -11.30% -5.93% 0.10% 0.88% 36.87%

Consumer stocks are organized by the S&P industry classification system as Discretionary Spending, Staples (the ‘must have’ consumer purchases) and Healthcare (also ‘must have’). Most income here is from the US consumer – in US Dollars – so there is less of an inverse correlation to the US Dollar as we saw in Energy, Basic Materials and Industrials/Transports.

The ETF for Consumer Discretionary stocks is XLY. The StockCharts data and calculations were changed on Sunday and are not entirely accurate. The data shows that XLY gained +0.24% W/W to close at 52.59, but a week ago the close was 52.62. Originally the data showed a loss (correctly) of -0.06% W/W for XLY.

On Saturday StockCharts showed there were 7 sectors up and 3 down. Now the data is showing all ten sectors were up this week, but that is not the case.

I hate that when changes are made and I hate it more when some of the changes are made in error.

But it is what it is. If my calcs are wrong, blame it on StockCharts because I don’t have time or patience to re-check their work (or mine).

This week Kohl’s (KSS +5.7% W/W) was the leader and Ebay (EBAY -5.1%) the loser.

Here is the Weekly chart of XLY (in solid blue @ 52.59 with the 8-week EMA @ 50.98 in dashed blue), and the $SPX in thin solid orange. The Bulls are still running, and the RSI-7w has lifted the past two weeks from 69.81 to 78.10 to 78.66, which is also Bullish.

wir13_12.32.gif

FD: In the All-Weather portfolios, we own DIS, GPS, HD, MCD, and SBUX.

Here below is the list of the new Cara 100 companies in this sector along with their stock tickers.

AMZN Amazon.com
ATVI Activision Blizzard
BBBY Bed Bath & Beyond
BC Brunswick Corp.
CCL Carnival Corp.
COST Costco Wholesale
DIS Walt Disney
FL Footlocker
GPS Gap
HD Home Depot
MAT Mattel
MCD McDonalds
ROST Ross Stores
SBUX Starbucks
TGT Target Corp.
TJX TJX Companies
TM Toyota Motor
TTM Tata Motors
WHR Whirlpool

As at Jan. 25, 2013, the total market cap of the 19 Cara All-Weather 100 stocks in this sector was $877.8 billion. Of the total, five stocks (TM, AMZN, HD, DIS and MCD in order) comprised $572 billion in cap (Jan 18).

As for the price data charts I find best, I like StockCharts.com. A full range of information comes from 4-traders.com.

Cara 100 Sector 25 (Consumer Discretionary) list:

AMZN Amazon.com [GICS 25, Cara All-Weather 100]

(Profile)
(Quotes)
(News)
(Calendar)
(Financials)
(Technical Analysis)
(Fundamental Analysis)
(Consensus Analysis)


ATVI Activision [GICS 25, Cara All-Weather 100]

(Profile)
(Quotes)
(News)
(Calendar)
(Financials)
(Technical Analysis)
(Fundamental Analysis)
(Consensus Analysis)


BBBY Bed Bath & Beyond [GICS 25, Cara All-Weather 100]

(Profile)
(Quotes)
(News)
(Calendar)
(Financials)
(Technical Analysis)
(Fundamental Analysis)
(Consensus Analysis)


BC Brunswick Corp [GICS 25, Cara All-Weather 100]

(Profile)
(Quotes)
(News)
(Calendar)
(Financials)
(Technical Analysis)
(Fundamental Analysis)
(Consensus Analysis)


CCL Carnival Corp [GICS 25, Cara All-Weather 100]

(Profile)
(Quotes)
(News)
(Calendar)
(Financials)
(Technical Analysis)
(Fundamental Analysis)
(Consensus Analysis)


COST Costco Wholesale [GICS 25, Cara All-Weather 100]

(Profile)
(Quotes)
(News)
(Calendar)
(Financials)
(Technical Analysis)
(Fundamental Analysis)
(Consensus Analysis)


DIS Disney Co [GICS 25, Cara All-Weather 100]

(Profile)
(Quotes)
(News)
(Calendar)
(Financials)
(Technical Analysis)
(Fundamental Analysis)
(Consensus Analysis)


FL Foot Locker [GICS 25, Cara All-Weather 100]

(Profile)
(Quotes)
(News)
(Calendar)
(Financials)
(Technical Analysis)
(Fundamental Analysis)
(Consensus Analysis)


GPS Gap Inc [GICS 25, Cara All-Weather 100]

(Profile)
(Quotes)
(News)
(Calendar)
(Financials)
(Technical Analysis)
(Fundamental Analysis)
(Consensus Analysis)


HD Home Depot [GICS 25, Cara All-Weather 100]

(Profile)
(Quotes)
(News)
(Calendar)
(Financials)
(Technical Analysis)
(Fundamental Analysis)
(Consensus Analysis)


MAT Mattel [GICS 25, Cara All-Weather 100]

(Profile)
(Quotes)
(News)
(Calendar)
(Financials)
(Technical Analysis)
(Fundamental Analysis)
(Consensus Analysis)


MCD McDonalds Corp [GICS 25, Cara All-Weather 100]

(Profile)
(Quotes)
(News)
(Calendar)
(Financials)
(Technical Analysis)
(Fundamental Analysis)
(Consensus Analysis)


ROSS Ross stores [GICS 25, Cara All-Weather 100]

(Profile)
(Quotes)
(News)
(Calendar)
(Financials)
(Technical Analysis)
(Fundamental Analysis)
(Consensus Analysis)


SBUX Starbucks Corp [GICS 25, Cara All-Weather 100]

(Profile)
(Quotes)
(News)
(Calendar)
(Financials)
(Technical Analysis)
(Fundamental Analysis)
(Consensus Analysis)


TGT Target Corp [GICS 25, Cara All-Weather 100]

(Profile)
(Quotes)
(News)
(Calendar)
(Financials)
(Technical Analysis)
(Fundamental Analysis)
(Consensus Analysis)


TJX TJX Companies [GICS 25, Cara All-Weather 100]

(Profile)
(Quotes)
(News)
(Calendar)
(Financials)
(Technical Analysis)
(Fundamental Analysis)
(Consensus Analysis)


TM Toyota Motor Corp [GICS 25, Cara All-Weather 100]

(Profile)
(Quotes)
(News)
(Calendar)
(Financials)
(Technical Analysis)
(Fundamental Analysis)
(Consensus Analysis)


TTM Tata Motors [GICS 25, Cara All-Weather 100]

(Profile)
(Quotes)
(News)
(Calendar)
(Financials)
(Technical Analysis)
(Fundamental Analysis)
(Consensus Analysis)


WHR Whirlpool Corp [GICS 25, Cara All-Weather 100]

(Profile)
(Quotes)
(News)
(Calendar)
(Financials)
(Technical Analysis)
(Fundamental Analysis)
(Consensus Analysis)


http://tinyurl.com/3pxbyu7
http://tinyurl.com/4xx8ogp

Here is the current candleglance chart of 10 important Sector 25 components:

http://stockcharts.com/scripts/php/candleglance.php?TM,DIS,NKE,TGT,EBAY,…

Info from SeekingAlpha.com this week

25 Amazon.com (AMZN) Mar14: 6:52 AM More on JPMorgan’s downgrade of Amazon (AMZN): The firm says its bottom-up analysis on Amazon suggests decelerating gross profit growth in 2013. In addition, 2014 EPS is taken down to $2.83/share from $3.01/share. AMZN -1.7% premarket. Mar13: 1:20 PM Amazon (AMZN -0.2%) launches its 8.9-inch Kindle tablet in the UK, Germany, France, Italy, Spain and Japan. In addition, the company lowered the prices on the larger-sized tablet in the U.S. to $269 for the Wi-Fi version and $399 for the 4G product. Mar12: 11:01 AM More on Amazon: 1) Morningstar and CIRP estimate Amazon’s Prime subs have surpassed 10M. They also estimate Prime members spend an average of $1,200/year on Amazon (twice as much as others), and that Amazon made $78 per Prime sub last year after various expenses. Bloomberg previously reported Amazon had only 3M-5M Prime subs as of Oct. ’11. 2) Amazon Web Services is making a stronger push for enterprise accounts by adding virtual private clouds as a default option. Microsoft, VMware, and OpenStack supporters are pitching private and/or hybrid clouds as an alternative to AWS. Mar11: 11:00 AM The launch of the fabled Amazon (AMZN -1.1%) smartphone has been pushed back from Q2 due to manufacturing challenges at Foxconn, display industry contacts tell Digitimes. A Taiwanese paper previously reported the phone would launch in Q2 or Q3. If/when the phone arrives, Amazon is expected to be as aggressive with pricing as is has been for its Kindle tablets and e-readers.

25 Carnival (CCL) Mar15: 6:53 AM Carnival (CCL) says the 4K passengers on its stricken Dream ship are in the process of being flown back to Florida. In yet another mishap, another ship at sea is having technical problems which are having an impact on sailing speed. CCL -0.6% premarket.

25 Footlocker (FL) Mar11: 7:53 AM Sterne Agee’s Sam Poser recommends buying Foot Locker (FL) after shares fell off following the company’s disappointing Q4 results . The analyst thinks the retailer’s margins will improve and notes valuation levels are attractive.

25 Starbucks (SBUX) Mar11: 2:46 PM Starbucks (SBUX) continues to increase its investment in locally-sourced coffee beans in China as it sees forecasts for coffee consumption for the region continue to move higher. The market for packaged coffee products is estimated to be set to rise 75% to 16B yuan ($2.5B) by 2017 which fall in line with the company’s plans for 1,500 stores by 2015. Early response to American phenomenon Starbucks in lower-tier Chinese cities has been stronger than expected.

25 Toyota Motors (TM) Mar13: 7:02 AM Toyota (TM) plans to launch the first global advertising campaign for its Lexus brand in May as it looks to gain ground on rivals (BMW, Audi, and Mercedes) that are outselling it by a wide margin. The company’s marketing department is considering going with the silent treatment – leaving music, images, and text to sell the Lexus brand. Mar11: 2:24 PM Toyota (TM +0.4%) wrapup: 1) The automaker says it will increase hiring during FY13 to reverse a two-year trend. 2) A new political action committee in the U.S. will be tasked with looking after Toyota’s interests in North America. 3) Recent comments from execs reveal that Toyota will become more flexible about shipping car production from one nation to the other to improve efficiency. 4) The Lexus brand is desperate to see relations between China and Japan cool off with new forecasts showing annual luxury car sales will exceed 3M by 2020.

25 Target (TGT) Mar15: 1:18 PM Target (TGT -0.2%) announces two e-commerce purchases to help boost its cooking and kitchenware business. The retailer acquired Chefs Catalog and the assets of Cooking.com in separate deals. Mar14: 8:24 AM Target Corporation (TGT) declares $0.36/share quarterly dividend, in line with previous. Forward yield 2.14%. For shareholders of record May 15. Payable June 10. Ex-div date May 13. Mar 13: 8:18 AM Target (TGT) is taken down to a Neutral rating from Buy by Buckingham Research with a price target of $69. It appears to be a valuation call based on the 13.4% YTD run shares of Target are on despite the retailer’s slow sales start to the year. TGT -0.6% premarket. Mar12: 1:37 PM Target (TGT -0.2%) says it won’t bring back its boutique shops concepts as it plans to increase the focus on partnerships instead. Though the retailer didn’t break out its sales, analysts think performance with the shops launched last year came in below expectations.


Sector 30 (consumer staples: XLP, VDC, RTH and IYK)

Here’s the XLP Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:

XLP Monthly data: XLP Monthly Data

XLP Weekly data: XLP Weekly Data

XLP Daily data: XLP Daily Data

Table 6: Senior consumer staples equities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance
Symbol
Close 1Day
Change
1Day
%Change
1W
%Change

2W
%Change

4W
%Change

YTD
%Change

3M
%Change

6M
%Change

12M
%Change

WAG

42.58 -0.14 -0.33% 4.77% 3.05% 1.72% 11.88% 15.83% 18.21% 26.09%

WFM

87.06 -1.52 -1.72% 2.42% 1.48% -0.50% -5.34% -1.67% -10.95% 1.84%

KR

31.62 0.12 0.38% 1.44% 7.08% 11.97% 19.91% 20.27% 32.86% 29.54%

DEO

121.08 -0.60 -0.49% 1.36% 2.01% 1.37% 1.88% 2.74% 11.37% 26.05%

KRFT

50.27 -0.20 -0.40% 1.13% 3.50% 6.59% 9.86% 7.83% 0.00% 0.00%

PEP

77.04 -0.15 -0.19% -0.21% 1.46% 6.59% 11.12% 9.81% 9.34% 20.06%

WMT

72.50 -0.72 -0.98% -0.73% 1.06% 2.37% 4.71% 5.45% -2.68% 18.41%

KMB

93.26 -0.52 -0.55% -0.99% -1.10% 3.40% 7.96% 9.65% 12.80% 27.89%

KO

38.83 -0.19 -0.49% -0.99% 0.34% 5.40% 3.27% 3.11% 1.86% 10.41%

PG

76.34 -1.05 -1.36% -1.09% -0.20% -0.57% 10.02% 9.17% 10.38% 12.80%

COST

101.75 -1.16 -1.13% -1.26% 0.32% -0.27% 0.29% 4.98% -0.42% 11.25%

BUD

95.43 -0.83 -0.86% -1.76% 0.94% 2.88% 7.18% 8.05% 11.78% 33.66%

ABV

42.90 -1.25 -2.83% -5.38% -4.88% -8.31% 1.83% 1.88% 12.10% 4.63%

The ETF for Consumer Staples stocks is XLP. As the purchases of consumer staples are considered must-have, the normal swings in economic growth and contraction do not affect these companies as much as say the Consumer Discretionary stocks.

This week, XLP gained +0.14% W/W or lost -0.34% depending on which figure you want to believe. Both were published. The close on Friday was 38.49, down from 38.62, so you take it that the loss figure is accurate.

What concerns me is that StockCharts have changed some of the previous Friday’s closing prices over the weekend. Here is what they did wrong. The previous Friday close was $38.62, not $38.43. That figure is the adjusted close. The difference is the dividend of +$0.191 that was paid this weekend, after this Friday’s close.

Walgreen (WAG +4.8% W/W) was the winner this week in this sector. I heard a media clown hyping the stock early in the week. The company quarterly report that was released ten days ago was unimpressive. The stock popped this Wed. All that happened was that UBS re-rated the stock from Neutral to Buy – their little contribution to push the S&P 500 to a new high.

I like the company, but not the stock. I’ll wait for a pull-back.

Here is the Weekly chart of XLP (in solid blue @ 38.62 with the 8-week EMA @ 37.66 in dashed blue), and the $SPX in thin solid orange. The Bulls remain in charge, but the RSI-7 is up from 80.96 to 83.82 to 84.20 over the past couple weeks.

wir13_12.33.gif

FD: For the All-Weather portfolios, we own ConAgra Foods (CAG) and Church & Dwight (CHD), which are new additions to the Cara All-Weather 100, plus DEO and SYY.

Here below is the list of the new Cara 100 companies in this sector along with their stock tickers.

ABV Companhia De Bebidas – Ambev
CAG Conagra Foods
CHD Church & Dwight
CVS CVS Corp.
DEO Diageo
KO Coca-Cola
SYY Sysco Corp.
WAG Walgreen
WFM Whole Foods Market
WMT Wal-Mart

As at Jan. 18, 2013, the total market cap of the 10 Cara All-Weather 100 stocks in this sector was $773 billion. Of the total, $541 billion is attributed to three stocks: WMT, KO, and ABV.

As for the price data charts I find best, I like StockCharts.com. A full range of information comes from 4-traders.com.

Cara 100 Sector 30 (Consumer Staples) list:

ABV AmBev (Companhia de Bebidas) [GICS 30, Cara All-Weather 100]

(Profile)
(Quotes)
(News)
(Calendar)
(Financials)
(Technical Analysis)
(Fundamental Analysis)
(Consensus Analysis)


CAG ConAgra Foods [GICS 30, Cara All-Weather 100]
Xlp

(Profile)
(Quotes)
(News)
(Calendar)
(Financials)
(Technical Analysis)
(Fundamental Analysis)
(Consensus Analysis)


CHD Church & Dwight [GICS 30, Cara All-Weather 100]

(Profile)
(Quotes)
(News)
(Calendar)
(Financials)
(Technical Analysis)
(Fundamental Analysis)
(Consensus Analysis)


CVS CVS Caremark Corp [GICS 30, Cara All-Weather 100]

(Profile)
(Quotes)
(News)
(Calendar)
(Financials)
(Technical Analysis)
(Fundamental Analysis)
(Consensus Analysis)


DEO Diageo plc (ADR) [GICS 30, Cara All-Weather 100]

(Profile)
(Quotes)
(News)
(Calendar)
(Financials)
(Technical Analysis)
(Fundamental Analysis)
(Consensus Analysis)


KO Coca-Cola [GICS 30, Cara All-Weather 100]

(Profile)
(Quotes)
(News)
(Calendar)
(Financials)
(Technical Analysis)
(Fundamental Analysis)
(Consensus Analysis)


SYY Sysco Corp [GICS 30, Cara All-Weather 100]

(Profile)
(Quotes)
(News)
(Calendar)
(Financials)
(Technical Analysis)
(Fundamental Analysis)
(Consensus Analysis)


WAG Walgreen Company [GICS 30, Cara All-Weather 100]

(Profile)
(Quotes)
(News)
(Calendar)
(Financials)
(Technical Analysis)
(Fundamental Analysis)
(Consensus Analysis)


WFM Whole Foods Market Inc [GICS 30, Cara All-Weather 100]

(Profile)
(Quotes)
(News)
(Calendar)
(Financials)
(Technical Analysis)
(Fundamental Analysis)
(Consensus Analysis)


WMT Wal-Mart Stores Inc , [GICS 30, Cara All-Weather 100]

(Profile)
(Quotes)
(News)
(Calendar)
(Financials)
(Technical Analysis)
(Fundamental Analysis)
(Consensus Analysis)


http://tinyurl.com/3m9fr8p

Here is the current candleglance chart of 10 important Sector 30 components:

http://stockcharts.com/scripts/php/candleglance.php?WMT,PG,KO,PEP,ABV,KR…

Info from SeekingAlpha.com this week

30 Coca-Cola (KO) Mar13: 5:12 AM Coca-Cola (KO) has found itself in a bit of hot water in China’s southwestern Yunnan province, where authorities have accused the company of illegally mapping its territory and using GPS devices to gather confidential information. Coke says it uses the mapping systems for customer-services and logistical reasons; the Chinese are sensitive about it due to national security and border disputes.

30 Costco (COST) Mar12: 6:56 AM A bright spot from Costco’s (COST) FQ2 report is that membership fees rose 15% to $528M – an improvement based on volume not a price hike. Looking at the retail sector, William Blair says the company’s low e-commerce profile helped keep it strong in merchandise categories while peers Target and Wal-Mart slipped in February. 3:24 AM More on Costco (COST) FQ2: net profit +39% to $547M, boosted by a $62M ($0.14/share) tax benefit. Comparable sales +5%, with U.S. +5%, international +6%. Excluding positive impact of forex and gasoline prices, comparable sales +5%, U.S. +5%, international +4%. Operates 622 warehouses, plans to open another 14 by end of FY.

30 Wal-Mart (WMT) Mar11: 8:28 AM A government panel in India rules that Indian companies don’t have to make disclosures about their lobbying activities in a determination which could have a favorable read-through for Wal-Mart (WMT). The same panel is expected to issue its report on the U.S. retailer to the government next month.


Sector 35 (healthcare: IYH, XLV, VHT, IXJ, and IBB)

Here’s the IYH Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:

IYH Monthly data: IYH Monthly Data

IYH Weekly data: IYH Weekly Data

IYH Daily data: IYH Daily Data

Table 7: Senior healthcare equities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance
Symbol
Close 1Day
Change
1Day
%Change
1W
%Change

2W
%Change

4W
%Change

YTD
%Change

3M
%Change

6M
%Change

12M
%Change

BMY

38.96 0.48 1.25% 4.17% 4.87% 6.51% 19.11% 19.03% 17.21% 17.24%

WLP

64.98 -0.20 -0.31% 3.09% 5.01% 2.67% 6.66% 11.10% 11.36% -2.93%

MYGN

25.90 -0.04 -0.15% 3.06% 1.73% 7.07% -6.43% -3.90% -5.92% 3.81%

MRK

44.09 -0.18 -0.41% 2.61% 3.42% 7.04% 6.65% 1.26% 1.08% 15.84%

BIIB

176.78 0.00 0.00% 2.55% 4.79% 7.41% 17.85% 16.88% 14.61% 46.04%

NVS

69.89 0.94 1.36% 1.76% 2.55% 1.76% 9.49% 10.60% 16.76% 28.69%

UNH

54.73 0.00 0.00% 1.71% 2.26% -4.07% 0.35% 1.26% 0.88% -1.76%

GSK

45.30 0.08 0.18% 1.62% 2.44% -0.79% 2.65% 2.67% -1.31% 0.64%

JNJ

79.19 0.09 0.11% 1.28% 3.25% 4.46% 11.79% 12.02% 15.66% 21.70%

CELG

112.40 -1.88 -1.65% 0.93% 6.42% 12.95% 38.59% 41.63% 47.37% 47.64%

AET

50.87 -0.36 -0.70% 0.69% 7.09% 2.64% 9.99% 11.63% 30.30% 10.68%

NVO

174.88 1.88 1.09% 0.11% -0.41% 2.01% 5.43% 7.25% 13.91% 23.54%

MDT

45.42 -0.53 -1.15% -0.39% 0.42% -3.71% 8.45% 8.50% 5.51% 15.37%

GILD

45.17 -0.71 -1.55% -0.57% 3.96% 8.58% -39.82% -39.16% -27.17% -4.22%

PFE

28.02 -0.09 -0.32% -0.60% 2.30% 3.55% 8.14% 11.28% 17.73% 27.89%

BAX

69.41 -0.65 -0.93% -0.69% 0.74% 1.82% 2.60% 5.25% 14.77% 16.11%

AMGN

91.81 -0.37 -0.40% -1.28% -0.83% 8.37% 2.98% 2.92% 12.84% 34.50%

ABT

34.14 -1.00 -2.85% -1.56% 1.61% -1.61% 6.52% 4.50% 0.03% 15.49%

The ETF I use for Healthcare stocks is IYH.

This week IYH was up +0.61% W/W. The close on Friday was 93.95.

This week a new all-time high for IYH was set at 94.38, “and the beat goes on”.

Here is the Weekly chart of IYH (in solid blue @ 93.95 with the 8-week EMA @ 91.27 in dashed blue), and the $SPX in thin solid orange. The Bull remains in control. But the RSI-7w is up over a couple weeks from 83.40 to 88.13 to 89.22, and cannot go much higher. Be careful now.

wir13_12.34.gif

FD: For the All-Weather portfolios we own AET, BMY, CELG, GILD, JNJ, MRK, NVS and PFE. The only one of the Cara 100 All-Weather Health that we don’t presently hold is GSK. Higher prices in our holdings are keeping us locked in, but higher stops are in place and are essential.

Here below is the list of the new Cara 100 companies in this sector along with their stock tickers.

AET Aetna Inc.
BMY Bristol-Myers Squibb
CELG Celgene Corp.
GILD Gilead Sciences
GSK GlaxoSmithKline
JNJ Johnson & Johnson
MRK Merck
NVS Novartis
PFE Pfizer

As at Jan. 25, 2013, the total market cap of the nine Cara All-Weather 100 stocks in this sector was $1,006.4 trillion. Of these, the big five were (in order) JNJ, PFE, NVS, MRK and GSK, with a (Jan. 19) market cap of $814 billion.

As for the price data charts I find best, I like StockCharts.com. A full range of information comes from 4-traders.com.

Cara 100 Sector 35 (Healthcare) list:

AET Aetna Inc [GICS 35, Cara 100 G50]

(Profile)
(Quotes)
(News)
(Calendar)
(Financials)
(Technical Analysis)
(Fundamental Analysis)
(Consensus Analysis)


BMY Bristol Myers Squibb Co [GICS 35, Cara 100 V50]

(Profile)
(Quotes)
(News)
(Calendar)
(Financials)
(Technical Analysis)
(Fundamental Analysis)
(Consensus Analysis)


CELG Celgene Corp [GICS 35, Cara 100 G50]

(Profile)
(Quotes)
(News)
(Calendar)
(Financials)
(Technical Analysis)
(Fundamental Analysis)
(Consensus Analysis)


GILD Gilead Sciences [GICS 35, Cara 100 G50]

(Profile)
(Quotes)
(News)
(Calendar)
(Financials)
(Technical Analysis)
(Fundamental Analysis)
(Consensus Analysis)


GSK GlaxoSmithKline plc (ADR) [GICS 35, Cara 100 V50]

(Profile)
(Quotes)
(News)
(Calendar)
(Financials)
(Technical Analysis)
(Fundamental Analysis)
(Consensus Analysis)


JNJ Johnson & Johnson [GICS 35, Cara 100 V50]

(Profile)
(Quotes)
(News)
(Calendar)
(Financials)
(Technical Analysis)
(Fundamental Analysis)
(Consensus Analysis)


MRK Merck [GICS 35, Cara 100 V50]

(Profile)
(Quotes)
(News)
(Calendar)
(Financials)
(Technical Analysis)
(Fundamental Analysis)
(Consensus Analysis)


NVS Novartis [GICS 35, Cara 100 V50]

(Profile)
(Quotes)
(News)
(Calendar)
(Financials)
(Technical Analysis)
(Fundamental Analysis)
(Consensus Analysis)


PFE Pfizer [GICS 35, Cara 100 V50]

(Profile)
(Quotes)
(News)
(Calendar)
(Financials)
(Technical Analysis)
(Fundamental Analysis)
(Consensus Analysis)


http://tinyurl.com/4yta7j7

Here is the current candleglance chart of 10 important Sector 35 components:

http://stockcharts.com/scripts/php/candleglance.php?JNJ,PFE,NVS,MRK,GSK,…,

Info from SeekingAlpha.com this week

35 Merck (MRK) Mar12: 8:30 AM Merck (MRK +3.3%) says that the Data Safety Monitoring Board will allow the company to continue with its large-scale trial of its blockbuster Vytorin cholesterol drug, indicating that no safety issues have come up. Some analysts had hoped that the trial would already have demonstrated Vytorin’s effectiveness and so could be halted. Alas, the study will continue until September 2014.


Sector 40 (financial: IYG, IYF, XLF, VFH, IXG, VNQ, RWR, IYR, and ICF)

Here’s the XLF Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:

XLF Monthly data: XLF Monthly Data

XLF Weekly data: XLF Weekly Data

XLF Daily data: XLF Daily Data

Table 8: Senior financial company equities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance
Symbol
Close 1Day
Change
1Day
%Change
1W
%Change

2W
%Change

4W
%Change

YTD
%Change

3M
%Change

6M
%Change

12M
%Change

WFC

38.20 1.23 3.33% 4.66% 7.94% 8.49% 8.99% 15.23% 5.73% 12.12%

BAC

12.57 0.46 3.80% 4.14% 10.85% 3.63% 4.49% 18.81% 31.62% 36.04%

CS

28.40 0.21 0.74% 3.54% 8.31% -2.54% 12.34% 15.64% 22.89% -2.74%

UBS

16.38 0.15 0.92% 3.08% 5.54% -2.79% 0.12% 0.18% 21.51% 14.15%

MS

23.59 0.79 3.46% 2.43% 5.17% -1.01% 20.23% 30.69% 29.33% 20.91%

GS

154.84 0.82 0.53% 1.22% 2.86% -0.70% 17.61% 29.73% 27.59% 25.82%

SCHW

17.86 -0.12 -0.67% 1.13% 8.90% 5.56% 18.44% 30.36% 23.77% 16.73%

TD

83.41 0.54 0.65% 0.72% 0.76% 0.37% -1.17% 1.62% -1.00% -0.80%

BNS

59.18 0.32 0.54% 0.27% -0.57% 0.85% 1.37% 3.07% 7.19% 6.10%

JPM

50.02 -0.98 -1.92% -0.36% 2.27% 1.63% 12.00% 16.84% 20.33% 11.90%

HBC

54.54 -1.17 -2.10% -0.60% -0.53% -3.16% 0.46% 4.82% 15.01% 20.69%

RY

60.31 0.07 0.12% -0.63% -2.87% -4.78% -1.76% 0.82% 4.36% 2.80%

DB

44.63 0.01 0.02% -1.13% 2.13% -8.45% -1.78% 4.18% 0.84% -11.57%

MA

519.37 -7.81 -1.48% -1.86% 0.21% -0.53% 1.78% 7.69% 14.35% 23.79%

BBD

18.64 0.01 0.05% -2.25% 3.04% 3.84% 4.90% 8.06% 5.13% 1.47%

HDB

38.58 -0.54 -1.38% -4.29% 1.13% -3.43% -6.34% -6.31% 3.88% 12.87%

IBN

42.21 -0.85 -1.97% -5.93% 1.03% -4.02% -7.23% -3.01% 10.53% 12.23%

The ETF for Financial stocks is XLF. If you want to check on strictly banking stocks, the $BKX Banking industry Index is what you want. For Insurance, try $INSR.

This week the Financial (XLF) sector was up +1.46% W/W, which was correct if you factor in the dividend of +$0.062. Otherwise XLF was up +1.15% from $18.24 to $18.45.

FD: We hold no Financial sector positions in the All-Weather accounts this week.

With QE, there will be more leadership from the banks and some would be attractive. But they need to fall back a bit before I’d enter.

Wells Fargo (WFC +4.7% W/W) was a leader with a gain on Friday of +3.3%. Bank of America (BAC) did the same with a gain of +3.8% on Friday that pushed the W/W gain to +4.1%.

The Indian banks ICICI (IBN -5.9% W/W) and HDFC (HDB -4.3%) were very weak, but a week ago they were quite strong with gains of +7.4% W/W and +5.7% respectively. After that happened, I wrote in this space: “(Both) are candidates for long positions if we first see a pull-back in their share prices”.

Here is the Weekly chart of XLF (in solid blue @ 18.44 with the 8-week EMA 17.74 in dashed blue), and the $SPX in thin solid orange. The Bull keeps running. But the Weekly RSI-7, which is in high-risk territory, increased over the past couple weeks from 74.76 to 83.83 to 86.37.

wir13_12.35.gif

Here below is the list of the new Cara 100 companies in this sector along with their stock tickers.

BBD Banco Bradesco
BNS Bank Of Nova Scotia
IBN ICICI Bank
MA Mastercard
RJF Raymond James Financial
RY Royal Bank Of Canada
SCHW Charles Schwab
TD Toronto Dominion Bank

As at Jan. 25, 2013, the total market cap of the eight Cara All-Weather 100 stocks in this sector was $424.3 billion. The largest five (in order) are RY, TD, BBD, BNS and MA, with a combined market cap (Jan. 18) of $373 billion.

As for the price data charts I find best, I like StockCharts.com. A full range of information comes from 4-traders.com.

Cara 100 Sector 40 (Financials) list:

BBD Banco Bradesco SA (ADR) [GICS 40, Cara All-Weather 100]

(Profile)
(Quotes)
(News)
(Calendar)
(Financials)
(Technical Analysis)
(Fundamental Analysis)
(Consensus Analysis)


BNS Bank of Nova Scotia (USA) [GICS 40, Cara All-Weather 100]

(Profile)
(Quotes)
(News)
(Calendar)
(Financials)
(Technical Analysis)
(Fundamental Analysis)
(Consensus Analysis)


IBN ICICI Bank [GICS 40, Cara All-Weather 100]

(Profile)
(Quotes)
(News)
(Calendar)
(Financials)
(Technical Analysis)
(Fundamental Analysis)
(Consensus Analysis)


MA Mastercard [GICS 40, Cara All-Weather 100]

(Profile)
(Quotes)
(News)
(Calendar)
(Financials)
(Technical Analysis)
(Fundamental Analysis)
(Consensus Analysis)


RJF Raymond James Financial [GICS 40, Cara All-Weather 100]

(Profile)
(Quotes)
(News)
(Calendar)
(Financials)
(Technical Analysis)
(Fundamental Analysis)
(Consensus Analysis)


RY Royal Bank of Canada (USA) [GICS 40, Cara All-Weather 100]

(Profile)
(Quotes)
(News)
(Calendar)
(Financials)
(Technical Analysis)
(Fundamental Analysis)
(Consensus Analysis)


SCHW Charles Schwab Corp [GICS 40, Cara All-Weather 100]

(Profile)
(Quotes)
(News)
(Calendar)
(Financials)
(Technical Analysis)
(Fundamental Analysis)
(Consensus Analysis)


TD Toronto Dominion Bank (USA) [GICS 40, Cara All-Weather 100]

(Profile)
(Quotes)
(News)
(Calendar)
(Financials)
(Technical Analysis)
(Fundamental Analysis)
(Consensus Analysis)


http://tinyurl.com/4y24xyy

Here is the current candleglance chart of 10 important Sector 40 components:

http://stockcharts.com/scripts/php/candleglance.php?HBC,JPM,WFC,C,BAC,GS…

Daily charts of electronic brokers and exchanges

Weekly charts of electronic brokers and exchanges

Info from SeekingAlpha.com this week

40 MasterCard (MA) Mar13: 10:31 AM MasterCard (MA +0.5%) signs a deal with the Agricultural Bank of China to provide financial services to outbound Chinese tourists. Last year, 80M Chinese tourists went abroad, up 15% from the previous year.


Sector 45 (technology: IGM, IGV, IGW, XLK, VGT, IYW, IGN, IXN, MTK and SMH)

The ETF for Technology stocks is XLK. Because the Semi-conductor manufacturers are a technology that is needed in the manufacture of most equipment and in most manufacturing processes today, I think it is the most important technology. So; I also focus on the Semi-conductor industry group, and the ETF for that is SMH.

XLK dropped -0.03% W/W. The close was 30.20. A dividend is included in the price gain shown by StockCharts.

SMH dropped -0.31% W/W. The close was 35.39.

BlackBerry (BBBY +14.8% W/W) was a big winner. They ought to call the stock YoYo.

Near bankrupt Suntech Power (STP), one of the world’s largest makers of solar panels, was crushed -44.4% this week (to $0.70). The interest payments on its notes was delayed.
http://www.4-traders.com/SUNTECH-POWER-HOLDINGS-CO-14497/news/Suntech-Po…

Suntech Power also closed a US factory.
http://www.4-traders.com/SUNTECH-POWER-HOLDINGS-CO-14497/news/Suntech-Po…

Here is the Weekly chart of XLK (in solid blue @ 30.20 with the 8-week EMA @ 29.74 in dashed blue), and the $SPX in thin solid orange. The chart is very Bullish.

wir13_12.36.gif

FD: In the All-Weather accounts we hold AAPL, CSCO, CTSH, GOOG, IBM and INTC.

Our holdings are restricted to Cara 100 companies.

Here below is the list of the new Cara 100 companies in this sector along with their stock tickers.

AAPL Apple Inc.
ADBE Adobe Systems
BRCM Broadcom
CSCO Cisco Systems
CTSH Cognizant Technology Solutions
EMC EMC Corp.
GOOG Google
IBM IBM
INFY Infosys
INTC Intel
JNPR Juniper Networks
MSFT Microsoft
ORCL Oracle Corp.
QCOM Qualcomm
SNDK SanDisk

As at Jan. 18, 2013, the total market cap of the 15 Cara All-Weather 100 stocks in this sector was $1.811 trillion. Of these, there are eight over $100 billion in market cap each, (AAPL, GOOG, MSFT, IBM, ORCL, CSCO, QCOM and INTC in order) with a combined market cap of $1.645 billion. Interestingly, Google has now captured 2nd place, ahead of Microsoft and IBM.

A full range of information comes from 4-traders.com. As for the price data charts I find best, I like StockCharts.com.

Cara 100 Sector 45 (Technology) list:

AAPL Apple Inc [GICS 45, Cara All-Weather 100]

(Profile)
(Quotes)
(News)
(Calendar)
(Financials)
(Technical Analysis)
(Fundamental Analysis)
(Consensus Analysis)


ADBE Adobe Systems Inc [GICS 45, Cara All-Weather 100]

(Profile)
(Quotes)
(News)
(Calendar)
(Financials)
(Technical Analysis)
(Fundamental Analysis)
(Consensus Analysis)


BRCM Broadcom Corp [GICS 45, Cara All-Weather 100]

(Profile)
(Quotes)
(News)
(Calendar)
(Financials)
(Technical Analysis)
(Fundamental Analysis)
(Consensus Analysis)



CSCO Cisco Systems Inc [GICS 45, Cara All-Weather 100]

(Profile)
(Quotes)
(News)
(Calendar)
(Financials)
(Technical Analysis)
(Fundamental Analysis)
(Consensus Analysis)


CTSH Cognizant Technology [GICS 45, Cara All-Weather 100]

(Profile)
(Quotes)
(News)
(Calendar)
(Financials)
(Technical Analysis)
(Fundamental Analysis)
(Consensus Analysis)


EMC EMC Corporation [GICS 45, Cara All-Weather 100]

(Profile)
(Quotes)
(News)
(Calendar)
(Financials)
(Technical Analysis)
(Fundamental Analysis)
(Consensus Analysis)


GOOG Google [GICS 45, Cara All-Weather 100]

(Profile)
(Quotes)
(News)
(Calendar)
(Financials)
(Technical Analysis)
(Fundamental Analysis)
(Consensus Analysis)


IBM IBM [GICS 45, Cara All-Weather 100]

(Profile)
(Quotes)
(News)
(Calendar)
(Financials)
(Technical Analysis)
(Fundamental Analysis)
(Consensus Analysis)


INFY Infosys Technologies Ltd [GICS 45, Cara All-Weather 100]

(Profile)
(Quotes)
(News)
(Calendar)
(Financials)
(Technical Analysis)
(Fundamental Analysis)
(Consensus Analysis)


INTC Intel Corp [GICS 45, Cara All-Weather 100]

(Profile)
(Quotes)
(News)
(Calendar)
(Financials)
(Technical Analysis)
(Fundamental Analysis)
(Consensus Analysis)


JNPR Juniper Networks [GICS 45, Cara All-Weather 100]

(Profile)
(Quotes)
(News)
(Calendar)
(Financials)
(Technical Analysis)
(Fundamental Analysis)
(Consensus Analysis)


MSFT Microsoft [GICS 45, Cara All-Weather 100]

(Profile)
(Quotes)
(News)
(Calendar)
(Financials)
(Technical Analysis)
(Fundamental Analysis)
(Consensus Analysis)


ORCL Oracle [GICS 45, Cara All-Weather 100]

(Profile)
(Quotes)
(News)
(Calendar)
(Financials)
(Technical Analysis)
(Fundamental Analysis)
(Consensus Analysis)


QCOM Qualcomm Inc [GICS 45, Cara All-Weather 100]

(Profile)
(Quotes)
(News)
(Calendar)
(Financials)
(Technical Analysis)
(Fundamental Analysis)
(Consensus Analysis)


SNDK SanDisk Corp [GICS 45, Cara All-Weather 100]

(Profile)
(Quotes)
(News)
(Calendar)
(Financials)
(Technical Analysis)
(Fundamental Analysis)
(Consensus Analysis)


http://tinyurl.com/3d8t3xl
http://tinyurl.com/3stja82

Here is the current candleglance chart of 10 important Sector 45 components:

http://stockcharts.com/scripts/php/candleglance.php?AAPL,MSFT,GOOG,IBM,O…,

Here is the current candleglance chart of 10 important Semi-conductor stock components:

http://stockcharts.com/scripts/php/candleglance.php?INTC,TSM,TXN,BRCM,AM…

Here’s the SMH Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:

SMH Monthly data: SMH Monthly Data

SMH Weekly data: SMH Weekly Data

SMH Daily data: SMH Daily Data

Here’s the XLK Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:

XLK Monthly data: XLK Monthly Data

XLK Weekly data: XLK Weekly Data

XLK Daily data: XLK Daily Data

Table 9: Senior technology equities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance
Symbol
Close 1Day
Change
1Day
%Change
1W
%Change

2W
%Change

4W
%Change

YTD
%Change

3M
%Change

6M
%Change

12M
%Change

BBRY

14.99 -0.07 -0.46% 14.78% 13.05% -0.53% 27.90% 6.77% 98.28% 11.53%

HPQ

22.18 0.25 1.14% 5.62% 10.07% 30.24% 47.67% 50.37% 22.07% -9.10%

EMC

25.35 -0.27 -1.05% 4.32% 9.03% 5.45% 2.05% 2.55% -9.01% -12.62%

AAPL

443.66 11.16 2.58% 2.77% 3.06% -4.91% -19.19% -12.97% -35.82% -24.23%

IBM

214.92 -0.88 -0.41% 2.16% 5.92% 7.65% 9.46% 12.08% 3.92% 4.33%

ORCL

36.34 0.04 0.11% 1.76% 4.94% 4.13% 4.76% 13.70% 10.29% 20.89%

SAP

84.58 0.01 0.01% 1.65% 7.50% 5.63% 2.65% 5.21% 17.42% 18.36%

EA

18.88 -0.46 -2.38% 1.61% 4.66% 10.09% 29.76% 23.40% 30.21% 12.99%

FSLR

26.61 -0.65 -2.38% 1.22% 4.97% -23.80% -16.82% -18.27% 8.13% -4.42%

DELL

14.31 0.05 0.35% 1.06% 2.21% 4.38% 33.99% 37.20% 32.13% -17.52%

CSCO

21.93 0.33 1.55% 0.44% 5.26% 4.45% 7.79% 10.40% 12.49% 10.12%

MSFT

28.04 -0.10 -0.37% 0.12% 0.30% -0.02% 1.50% 4.57% -10.17% -14.66%

ADBE

41.38 -0.24 -0.58% -0.29% 3.89% 7.17% 7.93% 10.17% 24.12% 21.10%

ATVI

14.65 -0.38 -2.53% -1.28% 2.09% 4.64% 33.91% 28.40% 20.97% 17.58%

GOOG

814.30 -7.24 -0.88% -2.07% 1.01% 3.36% 12.59% 16.00% 14.74% 31.10%

QCOM

64.98 -1.60 -2.40% -2.51% -2.00% -0.85% 0.35% 8.60% 0.15% -0.36%

JNPR

20.17 -0.34 -1.66% -2.51% -1.56% -6.96% -1.85% 2.96% 4.35% -5.44%

INFY

53.59 0.33 0.62% -2.67% -0.70% 3.80% 25.03% 24.63% 11.30% -9.26%

CTSH

78.36 -0.32 -0.41% -2.67% 0.54% 2.86% 2.92% 8.04% 10.37% 2.75%

BIDU

85.08 -1.25 -1.45% -4.64% -8.08% -10.61% -18.29% -12.65% -26.41% -37.60%

STP

0.7000 0.0300 4.48% -44.44% -46.56% -55.97% -56.25% -32.69% -19.54% -78.13%
Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance
Symbol
Close 1Day
Change
1Day
%Change
1W
%Change

2W
%Change

4W
%Change

YTD
%Change

3M
%Change

6M
%Change

12M
%Change

ATML

6.901 -0.094 -1.27% 6.83% 5.84% -3.35% -0.85% 21.28% 6.33% -29.29%

SNDK

55.11 0.01 0.02% 6.29% 9.58% 10.15% 23.18% 29.15% 20.67% 10.89%

BRCM

34.65 -0.56 -1.58% 3.42% 2.29% 0.22% 0.39% 8.06% -4.37% -8.23%

MU

9.370 -0.315 -3.30% 1.85% 13.58% 15.97% 41.33% 36.79% 39.85% 6.12%

AMD

2.6000 -0.0300 -1.14% 1.56% 7.44% -5.45% 2.77% 8.79% -33.33% -68.48%

UMC

1.8500 -0.0600 -3.14% 0.54% 1.09% -1.60% -9.31% -7.96% -13.95% -29.12%

XLNX

38.45 -0.40 -1.03% 0.21% 4.91% 0.03% 3.67% 8.71% 9.14% 4.26%

ALTR

35.16 -0.45 -1.26% -0.26% -0.99% -3.01% -2.06% 7.00% -7.84% -10.90%

TXN

35.08 -0.30 -0.85% -0.60% 1.62% 3.82% 8.57% 13.90% 18.67% 7.02%

LSI

6.860 0.000 0.00% -0.87% -0.44% -5.90% 0.00% 1.63% -13.05% -23.35%

INTC

21.38 -0.27 -1.27% -0.95% 1.64% 0.68% -0.02% 4.12% -8.54% -22.97%

ADI

45.53 -0.98 -2.11% -1.13% 0.66% -2.17% 3.48% 10.11% 9.24% 14.43%

TER

16.83 -0.17 -1.00% -1.35% 1.26% -4.65% -3.77% 2.06% 2.43% -0.06%

TSM

17.64 -0.41 -2.27% -1.51% -3.34% -5.01% -2.54% 4.07% 14.84% 18.07%

AMAT

13.31 -0.37 -2.74% -1.74% -2.10% -4.21% 12.37% 20.08% 10.41% 4.03%

LLTC

37.72 -0.70 -1.82% -1.82% -0.50% -0.37% 4.81% 12.33% 12.03% 11.10%

STM

7.640 -0.050 -0.65% -4.38% -2.92% -11.27% 2.96% 10.40% 13.35% -7.84%

KLAC

52.65 -2.28 -4.15% -4.55% -3.39% -6.15% 6.21% 11.59% 0.32% 1.48%

Info from SeekingAlpha.com this week

45 Apple (AAPL) Mar12: 7:37 AM Jefferies’ Peter Misek cuts his price target on Hold-rated Apple (AAPL) to $420 from $500. He’s slashing his revenue numbers and seeing about a 25% chance the company misses Q1 guidance after Jefferies’ recent supplier checks. “Historically when handset makers fall out of favor, they fall faster/further than expected.” Shares -0.7% premarket.

45 Broadcom Corporation (BRCM) Mar11: 7:02 PM A new Broadcom (BRCM) digital cable adapter SoC makes it easier for cable video to be delivered to “Boxee boxes, smart TVs and other types of IP-connected video devices,” Light Reading observes. The BCM7576’s integration of an IP mini server allows it to decrypt content so that it can be shuffled around home networks, and onto retail devices. The chip can also handle up to four video feeds using a single-tuner – current adapters often require multiple tuners.

45 Google (GOOG) Mar12: 6:15 PM Google (GOOG) has bought DNNResearch, a startup leveraging neural networks to improve voice/image search. The purchase appears to be an “acqui-hire” – DNNresearch doesn’t have any products, but it does have Prof. Geoffrey Hinton, a renowned neural network expert. Google had long had an interest in using neural networks to analyze content not easily handled by traditional search algorithms.


Sector 50 (telecom: IYZ, VOX and IXP)

The ETF for I use for Telecom stocks is IYZ.

This week, IYZ gained +0.12% W/W to close at 24.28.

That’s three cents in the US [but a nickel in Canada because the Royal Cdn Mint stopped making pennies that cost almost two cents each to make. 🙂 ]

Verizon (VZ +0.13% W/W) and AT&T (T -0.68%) were mixed. The leaders here were France Telecom (FTE +6.1% W/W after gaining +6.7% a week ago) and Telefonica (TEF +3.1% W/W after gaining +10.4% a week ago).

America Movil (AMX -13.2% W/W including a loss on Friday of -3.9%) was crushed. AMX ($18.62) was trading over $25 a month ago – but that was before the govt announced some forthcoming changes in its telecom industry.

Here is the Weekly chart of IYZ (in solid blue @ 24.28 with the 8-week EMA @ 24.33 in dashed blue), and the $SPX in thin solid orange. Call it Neutral with a Bearish tone.

wir13_12.37.gif

FD: We added MBT to the RCI that we hold in this sector presently.

Here below is the list of the new Cara 100 companies in this sector along with their stock tickers.

CHA China Telecom Corp
MBT Mobile Telesystems
RCI Rogers Communication
TEF Telefonica Sa

As at Jan. 18, 2013, the total market cap of the four Cara All-Weather 100 stocks in this sector was $155 billion. Of these, Telefonica (TEF) is largest with a $57 billion market cap.

As for the price data charts I find best, I like StockCharts.com. A full range of information comes from 4-traders.com.

Cara 100 Sector 50 (Telecom) list:

CHA China Telecom Corp [GICS 50, Cara 100 V50]

(Profile)
(Quotes)
(News)
(Calendar)
(Financials)
(Technical Analysis)
(Fundamental Analysis)
(Consensus Analysis)


MBT Mobile TeleSystems (ADR) [GICS 50, Cara 100 V50]

(Profile)
(Quotes)
(News)
(Calendar)
(Financials)
(Technical Analysis)
(Fundamental Analysis)
(Consensus Analysis)


RCI Rogers Communications [GICS 50, Cara 100 V50]

(Profile)
(Quotes)
(News)
(Calendar)
(Financials)
(Technical Analysis)
(Fundamental Analysis)
(Consensus Analysis)


TEF Telefonica SA [GICS 50, Cara 100 V50]

(Profile)
(Quotes)
(News)
(Calendar)
(Financials)
(Technical Analysis)
(Fundamental Analysis)
(Consensus Analysis)


http://tinyurl.com/3dd857s

Here is the current candleglance chart of 10 important Sector 50 components:

http://stockcharts.com/scripts/php/candleglance.php?T,VZ,CHL,CHA,VOD,TEF…,

Table 14: Telecom

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance
Symbol
Close 1Day
Change
1Day
%Change
1W
%Change

2W
%Change

4W
%Change

YTD
%Change

3M
%Change

6M
%Change

12M
%Change

FTE

10.93 0.04 0.37% 6.12% 13.26% 5.40% -2.41% -2.24% -21.82% -26.10%

TEF

14.95 -0.01 -0.07% 3.10% 13.86% 13.09% 8.81% 12.24% -0.47% -10.21%

RCI

49.06 -0.01 -0.02% 2.08% 2.74% 7.80% 6.01% 9.31% 17.88% 26.18%

TU

68.37 1.02 1.51% 0.87% -0.83% 2.44% 4.33% 4.02% 10.20% 18.84%

BCE

45.87 0.16 0.35% 0.46% 1.19% 3.52% 5.23% 6.33% 4.68% 13.60%

DCM

15.21 0.05 0.33% 0.40% -0.78% 2.63% 4.61% 5.19% -7.99% -10.21%

VZ

48.02 -0.46 -0.95% 0.13% 2.78% 8.32% 8.47% 8.62% 7.84% 21.45%

VOD

27.65 -0.15 -0.54% -0.22% 8.82% 6.14% 7.80% 7.05% -2.88% 5.17%

T

36.43 -0.43 -1.17% -0.68% 1.17% 3.23% 4.09% 7.12% -2.23% 15.14%

CHL

53.18 -0.77 -1.43% -2.69% -2.81% -3.90% -10.67% -7.01% -1.15% -1.95%

CHA

51.90 -0.19 -0.36% -2.70% 0.08% -0.73% -10.47% -6.76% -18.24% -11.81%

MBT

20.56 -0.24 -1.15% -4.73% -2.00% 3.16% 9.54% 12.84% 7.19% 10.60%

NOK

3.4300 -0.0400 -1.15% -6.79% -4.46% -13.82% -16.55% -10.21% 15.10% -34.29%

AMX

18.62 -0.75 -3.87% -13.15% -10.61% -15.29% -20.19% -21.57% -27.63% -21.76%

Here’s the IYZ Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:

IYZ Monthly data: IYZ Monthly Data

IYZ Weekly data: IYZ Weekly Data

IYZ Daily data: IYZ Daily Data

Info from SeekingAlpha.com this week

none


Sector 55 (utilities: IDU, XLU, and VPU)

The Utilities sector ETF is XLU.

This week, XLU gained +0.04% to close at $38.13, up from $37.97. The data shows a W/W gain of +1.29%, but that includes the dividend of $0.329 paid this weekend.

Exelon (EXC +4.0% W/W) and TransCanada Pipe (TRP +2.1%) were strong.

Here is the Weekly chart of XLU (in solid blue @ 38.13 with the 8-week EMA @ 36.94 in dashed blue), and the $SPX in thin solid orange. The Bull is still on the run.

wir13_12.38.gif

FD: We hold only EXC in the All-Weather portfolio accounts for this sector although EPD (in Sector 10) would probably also qualify here as well, and we hold it too again this week.

Here below is the list of the new Cara 100 companies in this sector along with their stock tickers. We may move Enterprise Products Partners (EPD) into this list.

EXC Exelon Corp.
TRP TransCanada Pipelines

As at Jan. 18, 2013, the total market cap of the two Cara 100 stocks in this sector was $60.7 billion.

As for the price data charts I find best, I like StockCharts.com. A full range of information comes from 4-traders.com.

Cara 100 Sector 55 (Utilities) list:

EXC Exelon Corp [GICS 55, Cara 100 V50]

(Profile)
(Quotes)
(News)
(Calendar)
(Financials)
(Technical Analysis)
(Fundamental Analysis)
(Consensus Analysis)


TRP TransCanada Corp [GICS 55, Cara 100 V50]

(Profile)
(Quotes)
(News)
(Calendar)
(Financials)
(Technical Analysis)
(Fundamental Analysis)
(Consensus Analysis)


Table 12: US Utilities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance.
Symbol
Close 1Day
Change
1Day
%Change
1W
%Change

2W
%Change

4W
%Change

YTD
%Change

3M
%Change

6M
%Change

12M
%Change

EXC

33.39 0.91 2.80% 3.92% 8.02% 8.73% 11.97% 12.58% -7.10% -14.27%

FE

42.10 0.42 1.01% 2.93% 6.58% 3.98% 0.29% 3.29% -2.73% -5.22%

PCG

43.56 0.00 0.00% 1.82% 1.66% 2.66% 6.63% 7.53% 0.72% 0.72%

PEG

33.28 0.33 1.00% 1.80% 1.31% 6.94% 7.60% 10.71% 4.46% 10.45%

D

56.79 0.44 0.78% 1.65% 0.66% 4.26% 7.31% 10.94% 7.52% 12.50%

NGG

55.55 -0.41 -0.73% 1.46% 1.81% 4.12% -3.74% -2.51% 0.00% 9.01%

TRP

48.03 0.63 1.33% 1.09% 3.20% 2.08% 0.21% 4.48% 3.02% 8.47%

AEP

47.90 0.22 0.46% 0.86% 2.55% 6.99% 9.74% 11.81% 9.71% 24.71%

DUK

69.95 0.02 0.03% 0.45% 1.01% 2.87% 7.60% 9.62% 8.97% 231.05%

SO

45.52 0.15 0.33% 0.44% 1.54% 3.67% 3.97% 5.98% 1.04% 1.45%

ED

59.17 0.37 0.63% 0.37% 0.25% 4.99% 4.56% 5.43% -1.07% 1.88%

Here’s the XLU Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:

XLU Monthly data: XLU Monthly Data

XLU Weekly data: XLU Weekly Data

XLU Daily data: XLU Daily Data

http://investertech.com/markets/mkview.asp?qte=ss&ty=tk&qt=AEP+D+DUK+ED+…

Here is the list of North American Utilities that I follow:

AEP D DUK ED EXC FE NEE NGG PCG PEG SO TRP

For study purposes, there is a good mix of electric (AEP, D, DUK, FE, NEE and SO), gas (NGG, TRP) and diversified (ED, EXC, PCG, PEG) utilities.

Here is the current candleglance chart of 10 important Sector 55 components:

http://stockcharts.com/scripts/php/candleglance.php?SO,NGG,EXC,TRP,D,DUK…,

Info from SeekingAlpha.com this week

none


Bonds & Yields Review

Despite spikes in both the Producer and Consumer Price Inflation Index on Thursday and Friday morning respectively, somehow Treasury bond prices also jumped. To find out how that happens, you will have to ask the Fed.

This is part of the reason I say the market is not real these days. Trying to make sense of it as I do is often an exercise in futility.

This week, prices of Treasury bond prices lifted, particularly for the 5-, 10-, 20- and 30-year issues.

In terms of basis points (bp) moves W/W, the yields this week on the 5-, 10- and 30-year US Treasuries were down -5 to 0.83%; down -5 to 1.99%; and down -4 to 3.22%.

What I think has happened is that the inflation data was known (by people behind the curtain) a week in advance, causing them to sell bonds heavily a week ago. In the WIR of a week ago I wrote: “After two weeks of solidly Bull moves in Bonds, this week all those gains and more were lost… One of the key US Treasury prices is the TLT (average 20-year Treasury fund). TLT plunged -3.49% W/W to close at 114.75, down from 118.90. There had been a gain of +1.60% and +0.45% in the previous two weeks.”

This week, despite the very negative inflation data that was reported to the public at 8:30am ET on Friday (CPI) and Thursday (PPI), TLT popped +0.47% on Friday and +0.88% W/W. This doesn’t make sense until you look at what happened to prices the week before.

As I say “The market is a game that plays people”.

Maybe I ought to change that to read “The market is a game where Fed, Friends and Family play people”.

TLT closed at 115.76, up from 114.75. The inflation-protected Treasuries (TIP +0.47% W/W) closed at 120.56. TIP plunged -1.25% W/W the week before.

There is no way we ought to be reading inflation data managed from the White House (Secretary of Labor), but for some reason we tolerate this nonsense.

http://fidweek.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.aspx?event_id=241&cust=mam&l…

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bureau_of_Labor_Statistics

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Department_of_Labor

The 15-minute data chart of TLT (115.76) that covers the past two weeks shows that the inverse correlation between stocks and bonds did not occur after Tuesday this week because all the selling happened the previous week.

wir13_12.40.gif

In any case, the Weekly data chart shows that the 8-week EMA (116.94) (dashed blue line) is above the price, which reflects the ongoing Bear profile since the beginning of December.

wir13_12.39.gif

A week ago I remarked: “Maybe the Bear persists for a bit, which is now indicated by this chart, but I believe there will be another test of upper resistance before the Dollar and the Treasury market enter a period of long-running weakness.” That might happen over the next couple weeks.

FD: We increased from 9.00% to 13.0% in TLT, as we think there may be one more shake-out coming for equities and capital will be temporarily placed in Bonds.

We do not trade Bonds in the Growth accounts.

As you know, in the All-Weather portfolios we hold bonds as well as cash, precious metals and relatively stable equities. Over many years, the strategy has proved itself to be successful. In the Growth accounts, we hold only equities and (less) cash, and the equities tend to be a bit smaller in market cap and pay out less in dividends than the equities we hold in the All-Weather portfolios.

Here is the Econoday write-up on US Bonds this week.

wir13_12.41.gif

Backgrounder:

A long time ago, the Treasury bonds ceased being income instruments; but, with an extremely low beta, they do hedge portfolio risk for some (very, very long-term oriented) traders, and the counter-cyclicality to the S&P 500 is obvious from the charts. The problem, again, is Total Return.

The TIP:TLT ratio chart is also a very effective indicator of trend reversals between inflation and deflation and back. Equity markets will lift when traders first see that inflation is on the way. I showed that chart at the open of this WIR.

Wall Street traders no longer view the Treasuries as income instruments. They trade them like penny stocks – only there is significantly less margin required by Humungous Bank & Broker (HB&B). lol … Of course, there is not much default risk to HB&B because they always have a buyer in the Fed ready to take them off the hook. That is not so funny.

Income investing btw will not go away. Risk averse investors have a need. This is an area of business I am personally pursuing now with asset-backed securities for accredited investors because I think the bond market is virtually dead for long-term oriented investors, and will not be revived for a few years.

As I say, I think it’s deplorable what the central planners have done to the fixed income market. Older people need higher income.

Table 10: US Treasury Yields

US Treasury Bonds
Maturity Yield Yesterday Last Week Last Month
3 Month 0.05 0.06 0.06 0.06
6 Month 0.09 0.09 0.09 0.10
2 Year 0.24 0.26 0.24 0.27
3 Year 0.37 0.39 0.39 0.42
5 Year 0.83 0.87 0.88 0.90
10 Year 1.99 2.03 2.04 2.03
30 Year 3.22 3.25 3.26 3.23
Municipal Bonds
Maturity Yield Yesterday Last Week Last Month
2yr AA 0.56 0.60 0.66 0.57
2yr AAA 0.42 0.42 0.41 0.49
2yr A 0.75 0.77 0.88 0.65
5yr AAA 0.95 0.91 0.92 0.91
5yr AA 1.11 1.12 1.07 1.08
5yr A 1.28 1.25 1.10 1.22
10yr AAA 1.93 1.92 1.84 1.77
10yr AA 2.10 2.04 2.00 1.79
10yr A 2.22 2.24 2.37 1.76
20yr AAA 2.75 3.42 3.00 2.49
20yr AA 3.29 3.31 2.99 2.52
20yr A 3.23 3.25 3.07 3.04
Corporate Bonds
Maturity Yield Yesterday Last Week Last Month
2yr AA 0.48 0.46 0.44 0.52
2yr A 0.73 0.72 0.73 0.76
5yr AAA 1.15 1.08 1.11 1.03
5yr AA 1.30 1.41 1.35 1.38
5yr A 1.58 1.63 1.66 1.78
10yr AAA 2.47 2.52 2.55 2.50
10yr AA 2.95 2.96 2.98 2.93
10yr A 3.03 3.08 3.12 3.08
20yr AAA 3.59 3.61 3.62 4.06
20yr AA 3.99 4.01 3.97 4.00
20yr A 4.26 4.23 4.22 4.22

http://stockcharts.com/scripts/php/candleglance.php?TLT,IGOV,$DJCBP

Here is the $USB 30-year Treasury Bond chart.

Interest rates and bond yields.

TNX0X Weekly Data

IRX0X Weekly Data

Interactive Daily data charts:

TNX0X Daily Data

IRX0X Daily Data


Interactive Chart of Interest rates and bond yields.


US Bond Funds — Interactive Monthly Data Charts SHY Monthly data series chart:

US Bond Funds - Monthly Data For SHY


IEF Monthly data series chart:

US Bond Funds - Monthly Data For IEF


TLT Monthly data series chart:

US Bond Funds - Monthly Data For TLT


AGG Monthly data series chart:

US Bond Funds - Monthly Data For AGG


LQD Monthly data series chart:

US Bond Funds - Monthly Data For LQD


TIP Monthly data series chart:

US Bond Funds - Monthly Data For TIP


US Bond Funds — Interactive Weekly Data Charts

SHY Weekly data series chart:

US Bond Funds - Weekly Data For SHY

IEF Weekly data series chart:

US Bond Funds - Weekly Data For IEF

TLT Weekly data series chart:

US Bond Funds - Weekly Data For TLT

AGG Weekly data series chart:

US Bond Funds - Weekly Data For AGG

LQD Weekly data series chart:

US Bond Funds - Weekly Data For LQD

TIP Weekly data series chart:

US Bond Funds - Weekly Data For TIP


US Bond Funds — Interactive Daily Data Charts

SHY Daily data series chart:

US Bond Funds - Daily Data For SHY

IEF Daily data series chart:

US Bond Funds - Daily Data For IEF

TLT Daily data series chart:

US Bond Funds - Daily Data For TLT

AGG Daily data series chart:

US Bond Funds - Daily Data For AGG

LQD Daily data series chart:

US Bond Funds - Daily Data For LQD

TIP Daily data series chart:

US Bond Funds - Daily Data For TIP


Table 11: Interest-sensitive securities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance.
Symbol
Close 1Day
Change
1Day
%Change
1W
%Change

2W
%Change

4W
%Change

YTD
%Change

3M
%Change

6M
%Change

12M
%Change

AVB

128.37 -0.84 -0.65% 3.46% 1.71% -1.29% -5.63% -3.19% -9.17% -6.58%

NLY

15.66 0.17 1.10% 2.35% 2.62% 3.23% 9.36% 9.51% -9.90% -3.45%

DRE

17.02 0.21 1.25% 2.28% 5.58% 6.98% 21.23% 26.54% 7.93% 18.19%

EQR

56.09 -0.30 -0.53% 2.11% 1.36% -2.55% -1.61% 1.08% -6.87% -5.81%

TLT

115.76 0.54 0.47% 0.88% -2.64% -0.92% -3.18% -6.34% -2.15% 4.09%

IEF

106.30 0.37 0.35% 0.62% -0.93% 0.15% -0.64% -1.67% -0.25% 3.54%

TIP

120.56 0.16 0.13% 0.47% -0.79% 0.15% -0.64% -1.46% -1.12% 2.58%

AGG

110.21 0.10 0.09% 0.36% -0.41% -0.03% -0.67% -1.02% -1.04% 0.86%

SHY

84.44 0.03 0.04% 0.02% -0.02% 0.05% 0.05% -0.02% 0.00% 0.25%

Some people think this 11-minute video is a good basic explanation of the bond market:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EmVrny8k6qo


Commodities Review

This week Commodities ($CRB +0.70% W/W) lifted on the potentially growing economy. The index is at 296.44.

Inflation spiked for bothe PPI and CPI, however, that is not enough to worry the Fed in their discussions about QE. Besides the US Dollar is very strong, so there is nothing holding back the Fed from cranking up QE. Besides the chart below is still Bearish.

This index will go much higher this year. There is a Commodities Bull just around the corner, although I don’t think it is much more than a Baby Bull in its early potential.

Here is the Weekly data chart of $CRB (solid blue line (296.44) with 8-week EMA (295.92) in dashed blue) vs US Dollar Index ($USD 82.13) (solid thin green line). The Dollar Bull is still in the ring and doing damage.

wir13_12.42.gif


Although I use the $CRB (Reuters/Jeffries Index), principally because it’s the oldest, there are many commodity indexes: http://www.crbtrader.com/crbindex/ • Astmax Commodity Index(AMCI) • Commin Commodity Index • Dow Jones-AIG Commodity Index • Goldman Sachs Commodity Index • Reuters/Jefferies CRB Index • Rogers International Commodity Index • Standard & Poor’s Commodity Index • NCDEX Commodity Index • Deutsche Bank Liquid Commodity Index (DBLCI) • UBS Bloomberg Constant Maturity Commodity Index (CMCI)

Here is a link to an article that discusses the major ones that have been around for a while: http://www.rogersrawmaterials.com/overviewandanalysis.PDF

Here is a current price summary of the heaviest weighted commodities contracts: http://money.cnn.com/data/commodities/

These indexes change their component weightings perhaps annually or even monthly, for example: http://www.seekingalpha.com/article/43586-the-new-generation-of-diversif… http://tinyurl.com/a5myfj

$CRB Index

Open Futures Contracts


Interactive Chart of Weekly CRB Commodities Index:

CRB Commodities Index - Weekly Chart

Interactive Chart of Daily CRB Commodities Index:

CRB Commodities Index - Daily Chart


Oil Review

This week $WTIC gained +$1.53/bbl (+1.67% W/W) to close at $93.36.

Stronger econ data in the US over the past two weeks bolstered prices again.

Here’s the Weekly data charts of $WTIC (93.36) in solid blue vs the 8-week EMA (93.24) in dashed blue, and the $USD Index (82.13) in solid thin green. This chart turned Bearish three weeks ago, but is now back to Neutral.

wir13_12.43.gif

The weekly high-low was 93.84—90.89 vs (i) 92.03—89.33 (ii) 94.46—90.04 (iii) 97.49—92.44 (iv) 98.11—94.97 (v) 97.76—95.04 and (vi) 98.24—95.47 in the prior six weeks.

Here is the Econoday write-up on Crude Oil this week:

wir13_12.44.gif

Here is the e-miNY Dec-07 Crude Oil chart.

Interactive Chart of Weekly Crude Oil:

Crude Oil- Weekly Chart

Interactive Chart of Daily Crude Oil:

Crude Oil- Daily Chart


Gold & Precious Metals Review

The gold bullion market

This week, $GOLD gained +$14,80/oz (+0.94% W/W) to close at $1591.20.

A week ago in this space I had noted: “The last two weeks, with $GOLD falling a total of just -$3.20/oz, the US Dollar has risen +0.56% and +1.02%, which is a lot.”

In the two weeks before this one, the price dropped just -0.03% and -0.17%, which was a relief after the two weeks before that $GOLD had plunged -$31.40/oz (-1.95%) and -$57.20/oz (-3.43%).

Putting this week’s gain into perspective, there needs to be a much bigger gain to get the fence-sitters back in the game. I’d say $1600 is the first step, followed quickly in early April to $1800 and soon afterward to $1900.

Here is the Weekly data chart of $GOLD (1591.20) with the $USD (82.13), in the overlaid solid green line. Note the counter-trend with the Dollar. Note the 8-week EMA is at 1615.90, which is clearly still Bearish. The Weekly RSI-7 is up from 20.86 to 30.91 this week, which is potentially Bullish because it had been over-sold and is now recovering. As I remarked a week ago: “Traders are watching for a reversal.” One will come in early April.

wir13_12.45.gif

The high-low for the week was 1598.80—1574.50 vs (i) 1585.80—1560.40 (ii) 1619.70—1564.00 (iii) 1618.80—1554.30 (iv) 1667.90—1596.70 (v) 1687.00—1661.80 (vi) 1685.00—1651.00 (vii) 1695.90—1655.00 (viii) 1697.80—1659.50 (ix) 1678.80—1642.60 and (x) 1695.40—1626.00 over the past ten weeks.

A week ago I reported: “The Bull & Bear Financial Report that is published by my friends David Robinson and Valerie Waters carry in their Feb-Mar issue a lengthy article that features 23 Gold and 21 Silver forecasts of many of the market’s best known analysts around the world. Each analyst is quoted extensively. You ought to read it, and can get it here.”
http://www.goldstocknews.com/GSNpdf/GSN-0213.pdf

The table of individual forecasts shows a low-high-average forecast summary of $1529.09-$1,903.87-$1,753.37 price for Gold and $26.20-$39.75-$33.21 price for Silver. But, as you now know, from a week ago: “I believe these big name analysts have far under-shot the mark. I believe the lows have already been made this YTD and the highs will be over $2500 and $50 respectively. Moreover, I believe prices in 2014 will be higher than that.”

Yes, I am a Gold Bull based on capital market conditions and for no other reason. I have written in this blog previously:

“At the end of the day the Gold Bull only dies (and the Bear appears) when governments around the world bring their budgets into balance and set legislative policy that permits free markets to work more efficiently so that the private sector can build wealth, creating jobs, generating more tax revenues. That happens on occasion, and often for lengthy periods like 1982-2000. Today, the governments have to stop owning the bond market, and let rates move to levels that brings in private sector investment. Then capital will flow out of precious metals and cash hoards and into the economy… I continue to believe: “There is nothing bearish about the precious metals market other than the talk on Financial Entertainment TV and I’m telling you who is paying for that to happen.” … Despite the recent pull-backs, I have stated clearly in these pages: “I continue to believe that within a few months $GOLD will surge to $1900 (back to the highs of August 2011) and then after a period of consolidation up to $2300. In about a year [4Q2013], I believe $GOLD will be in the $2700-$3000 range.” … “I’d say many of you are hopeful, but most of you don’t believe it will happen.” … We all know that price forecasting like this is tantamount to tea-leaf reading because we never know what government civil servants and central banks are planning behind closed doors; however, the rocketing higher of debt in the US, Europe, Japan and many of the world’s smaller economies is impossible to continue without wealth being created simultaneously, and failing that, currencies will have to weaken. Given that central banks have used their ammunition and governments have for the most part become socialist in order to stay in or regain elected power, it is impossible for the private sector to build wealth quick enough to stay in a semblance of balance with the debt that has been and is being created. Ergo there must soon be a radical change in asset pricing. That’s been happening of course since about 2001, and I don’t see the process ending for several years yet. With each cycle, there will be even higher Precious Metal prices, commodity prices, collectable art works prices, and price-earnings multiples for equities. Without assets being somewhat in balance with liabilities (i.e., somebody’s debt), currencies must – absolutely must – suffer devaluation. As to Precious Metal prices, it’s just a matter of time.”

I believe every word of this. A weak US Dollar would get the ball rolling. This week, the $USD dropped -0.77% W/W to 82.13, but it has to fall much more.

Interactive Chart of Weekly Gold EOD Continuous Contract Index:

http://investertech.com/tkchart/tkchart.asp?stkname=gld&cht=Tech+Chart&p…

http://investertech.com/tkchart/tkchart.asp?stkname=gld&cht=Tech+Chart&p…

http://investertech.com/tkchart/tkchart.asp?stkname=gld&cht=Tech+Chart&p…

Here is the current candleglance chart of 10 important precious metals and copper market components:

http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?$SILVER,$GOLD,$PLAT,$COPPER,GDX,GDXJ,UXG,SVM,SLW,FCX,

Spot gold chart for the week

Interactive Chart of Weekly Gold EOD Continuous Contract Index:

GOLD EOD Continuous Contract Index - Weekly Chart

Interactive Chart of Daily Gold EOD Continuous Contract Index:

GOLD EOD Continuous Contract Index- Daily Chart

Interactive chart of recent trading for the Gold Bullion index.


The silver market

Spot silver chart for the week

Interactive daily data

A week ago, $SILVER gained +$0.39 (+1.35% W/W) to close at $28.93. This week the contract dropped -$0.15 (-0.52% W/W) to close at 28.78.

Here is the Weekly chart of $SILVER (28.78) in the solid blue line with the 8-week EMA (29.61) in dashed blue, and the $USD (82.13) in solid thin green. That is still Bearish, but the RSI-7w lifted from 27.63 to 33.26 a week ago and stayed at 32.13 this week, which is showing me $SILVER is close to completing a cycle bottom.

wir13_12.46.gif

The Weekly hi-low was 29.35—28.53 vs (i) 29.26—28.33 (ii) 29.44—27.92 (iii) 30.15—28.25 (iv) 31.53—29.66 (v) 32.12—31.30 (vi) 32.30—30.75 and (vii) 32.49—31.12 over the previous seven weeks. Note that this week, despite the falling W/W price, there was a higher high and a higher low.

As I have stated: “Every dip has been an opportunity to buy Silver bullion, as I see it. But we must be prudent.”

As an active trader in mines and metals, I usually watch the Sydney and London miners overnight to give me a heads-up as to where prices will be at 9:30am ET in the US and Cdn market.

I also watch the action of all the major precious metals and metals, and the related stocks, before I come to a conclusion on any one of them. For now the stocks are in a Bear – resulting, I believe, from fraudulent ETF trading — and the price of physicals is dubious, held back by securitized contracts from actually being bullish.

I believe that many formerly Bullish traders have capitulated. We’ll have to see if by year-end they are pleased in doing that.

Here is the current candleglance chart of 10 important precious metals and copper market components:

http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?$SILVER,$GOLD,$PLAT,$COPPER,GDX,GDXJ,UXG,SVM,SLW,FCX,

http://stockcharts.com/scripts/php/candleglance.php?$SILVER,$GOLD,$PLAT,$COPPER
http://tinyurl.com/22rsj4r

http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?s=$silver
http://tinyurl.com/y8k8ud4

Interactive Chart of Weekly Silver EOD Continuous Contract Index:

SILVER EOD Continuous Contract Index - Weekly Chart

Interactive Chart of Daily Silver EOD Continuous Contract Index:

SILVER EOD Continuous Contract Index- Daily Chart


The platinum market

http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?s=$plat
http://tinyurl.com/ydwz4pn

This week $PLAT dropped -$11.90 (-0.74% W/W) to close at $1589.70. Despite the loss, this contract is still up about +$15 over two weeks.

Here is the Weekly chart of $PLAT ($1589.70) in the solid blue line (with the 8-week EMA (1618.69) in dashed blue, which is above the last price, and the $USD (82.13) in the solid thin green line. That’s still Bearish despite the fact that auto production is so high and every new auto requires lots of platinum. Inventory is less than a year, I believe.

wir13_12.47.gif

The hi-low this week was 1615.00—1578.50 vs (i) 1610.00—1564.00 (ii) 1630.80—1565.50 (iii) 1704.70—1599.00 (iv) 1735.90—1671.10 (v) 1744.50—1684.70 (vi) 1699.90—1659.70 and (vii) 1704.60—1666.60 over the previous seven weeks. Note that, despite the loss W/W, there was a higher high and a higher low.

Here is a list of PLAT/PALL stocks to watch:

ANO Anooraq Res.
ELR.TO Eastern Platinum
JLP.L Jubilee Platinum
NKP.AX Nkwe Platinum
PDL.TO North American Palladium
PLA.AX Platinum Australia
PLG Platinum Group Metals
NKL.V Prophesy Platinum Corp

Spot platinum chart for the week

Interactive Chart of Weekly Platinum EOD Continuous Contract Index:

PLAT EOD Continuous Contract Index - Weekly Chart

Interactive Chart of Daily Platinum EOD Continuous Contract Index:

PLAT EOD Continuous Contract Index- Daily Chart

Interactive chart of the Platinum metal index.


The palladium market

After $PALL had a break-out week a week ago when $PALL soared +$61.00 (+8.45% W/W) to close at $782.85, this week the contract dropped back -$11.85 (-1.51% W/W) to close at $771.00.

Here is the Weekly chart of $PALL (771.00) in the solid blue line with the 8-week EMA (748.41) in dashed blue, and the $USD (82.13) in the thin solid green line. The RSI-7w dropped down from 71.91 to 65.80. The EMA is a Bullish indicators, but the RSI-7 gave a SELL Alert. Like the others, there is a counter-trend with the Dollar.

wir13_12.48.gif

The weekly hi-low was 784.65—755.55 vs (i) 788.45—713.00 (ii) 752.35—714.00 (iii) 767.35—708.30 (iv) 777.60—744.00 (v) 772.90—740.25 (vi) 760.50—734.30 (vii) 742.10—714.25 (viii) 732.95—696.25 (ix) 705.00—663.20 (x) 718.85—681.00 and (xi) 710.80—681.50 over the previous eleven weeks. Note the higher low this week.

The pattern is still Bullish.

Spot palladium chart for the week

Interactive Chart of Weekly Palladium EOD Continuous Contract Index:

PALL EOD Continuous Contract Index - Weekly Chart

Interactive Chart of Daily Palladium EOD Continuous Contract Index:

PALL EOD Continuous Contract Index- Daily Chart

Interactive chart of the Palladium metal index.


The (base metal) copper market

“Copper is still on its way to $4, I believe.”

This week $COPPER was flat again at 3.520.

Here is the Weekly data chart of $COPPER (3.520) in the solid blue line with the 8-week EMA (3.59) in dashed blue, and the $USD (82.13) in the solid thin green line. The chart is Bearish, but likely basing for a reversal within four weeks. Note the counter trend with the US Dollar.

wir13_12.49.gif

http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?s=$copper
http://tinyurl.com/ybgnb7f

Interactive Daily data

Interactive Weekly data

Interactive Chart of Weekly Copper EOD Continuous Contract Index:

COPPER EOD Continuous Contract Index - Weekly Chart

Interactive Chart of Daily Copper EOD Continuous Contract Index:

COPPER EOD Continuous Contract Index- Daily Chart

Interactive chart of the Copper metal index.


Goldminer Equities

Table 12: Senior gold equities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance
Symbol
Close 1Day
Change
1Day
%Change
1W
%Change

2W
%Change

4W
%Change

YTD
%Change

3M
%Change

6M
%Change

12M
%Change

RBY

2.4500 0.1100 4.70% 18.93% 14.49% 7.46% -7.20% -10.26% -36.53% -28.57%

IAG

6.920 0.220 3.28% 5.65% 5.65% -16.73% -41.26% -41.06% -56.17% -48.24%

GDXJ

16.85 0.27 1.63% 4.66% 7.94% -4.80% -17.96% -20.89% -31.73% -33.90%

HMY

6.560 0.130 2.02% 4.63% 6.84% -7.61% -26.13% -20.29% -27.75% -41.32%

MUX

2.7500 0.0300 1.10% 4.17% 13.17% -1.43% -30.56% -28.39% -41.24% -34.83%

PAAS

16.71 0.11 0.66% 3.47% 2.89% -3.63% -13.01% -11.16% -18.73% -23.17%

NG

4.0000 0.0500 1.27% 2.56% 2.30% -7.62% -17.18% -13.79% -31.97% -43.50%

SSRI

10.25 0.09 0.89% 2.30% 2.40% -10.09% -33.40% -32.79% -36.26% -29.89%

AUY

14.53 -0.02 -0.14% 1.75% -1.69% -7.16% -16.16% -16.45% -22.59% -7.39%

AEM

39.69 -0.11 -0.28% 1.20% -1.00% -9.09% -25.58% -25.74% -22.74% 18.58%

NEM

39.68 0.09 0.23% 1.10% 0.15% -10.93% -15.39% -10.41% -30.63% -26.30%

CDE

19.10 0.38 2.03% 0.95% 2.41% -11.53% -24.21% -18.83% -33.03% -21.53%

BVN

25.06 0.06 0.24% 0.85% -1.73% -7.87% -30.75% -27.95% -35.63% -35.36%

GFI

8.060 0.150 1.90% 0.75% -1.59% -32.95% -35.36% -31.11% -37.52% -43.28%

GDX

37.34 0.09 0.24% 0.62% 0.62% -9.72% -20.72% -19.66% -30.67% -25.53%

AU

24.58 -0.21 -0.85% -0.08% 2.20% -13.36% -21.52% -17.79% -31.32% -36.02%

ANV

18.12 0.10 0.55% -0.11% 1.97% -22.80% -41.00% -40.10% -53.67% -43.97%

KGC

7.910 -0.030 -0.38% -0.13% 3.13% -5.04% -19.78% -19.04% -22.98% -20.18%

EGO

9.490 0.080 0.85% -0.21% -4.81% -11.14% -28.43% -29.44% -39.75% -29.49%

CEF

19.50 -0.02 -0.10% -0.36% 0.00% -5.89% -9.51% -12.12% -18.03% -11.36%

HL

4.2300 0.0600 1.44% -0.47% -8.84% -22.24% -30.77% -26.18% -33.49% -7.03%

GG

32.44 0.01 0.03% -0.55% -0.25% -6.43% -13.54% -11.90% -29.78% -27.07%

ABX

28.62 0.03 0.10% -1.00% -2.65% -11.69% -19.45% -16.39% -32.47% -34.73%

SLW

30.40 -0.24 -0.78% -1.43% -4.25% -16.60% -17.88% -18.06% -22.71% -9.23%

KGN

3.0900 -0.0600 -1.90% -3.13% -3.74% -15.34% -23.51% -23.13% -18.04% -41.03%

SVM

3.6500 0.0900 2.53% -3.69% 0.55% -11.62% -30.34% -35.40% -45.93% -46.87%

I previously remarked: “It appears that capitulation is a lengthy process”… In my view, however, we are witnessing the birthing of an elephant.

This week the Senior Goldminers ETF (GDX) was up +0.62% W/W at 37.34, and the Junior Goldminers ETF (GDXJ +4.66% W/W) was stronger again after being up +3.14% a week ago. The close was $16.85.

Referring to the gain a week ago I stated in the WIR: “That (gain of +3.14%) likely completes a major Bear phase over the previous three weeks.”

I’m not so sure that precious metals are fully based and ready to soar. But I think we are very close.

Here is the Weekly GDX chart with the $USD in the background in solid green. The price at 37.34 is well below the 8-week EMA at 39.41, but the RSI-7w did lift this week from 13.33 to 16.41.

wir13_12.50.gif

A week ago, I remarked in this space: “If you look at the price to Fwd Earnings for the producers, the multiples are extremely low in the 5x-10x range. Moreover the short position in some of these producers is extremely high. Such a combination is unwarranted and risky, in my view. I would not be short one of these senior producing goldminers at this point. Obviously the Shorts believe the price of $GOLD is going to collapse or they would not be taking such enormous risk. We’ll revert to this discussion in the near future.”

Big shorts this week boomed in some cases. Rubicon (RBY) soared +18.9% W/W. Iamgold (IAG) was up +5.7%. Rubicon is not a producer, but if, as and when the precious metal prices start on their Bull run, all these big shorts will be quickly closed.

Now here is the Weekly XME:GDX ratio chart. XME is the S&P 500 Mines & Metals ETF and GDX is the senior gold producers ETF. The base metals miners were in relatively much better shape than the precious metal miners – until now. The TRIX is breaking down and the RSI-7w has given a SELL Alert. This means that the base metal miners are soon going to be less favored than the precious metal miners – maybe something like 3Q2011.

wir13_12.51.gif

“I still believe there will be a Gold Bull appear soon after the start of the New Year.”

“So we are now into March and the Gold Bull is still in hiding, but at least the XME:GDX ratio chart is showing a potential change in trend.”

“…Patience is required.”

I am starting to see the whites of their eyes…

Here is the current candleglance chart of 10 important Gold and Silver mining companies:

http://stockcharts.com/scripts/php/candleglance.php?ABX,GG,NEM,KGC,BVN,G…,


To watch the moves in precious metal miners, you will have to monitor the individual stock charts, preferably in real-time, as follows: NEM ABX AU GFI GG HMY AUY KGC BVN

Interactive Daily data

Interactive Weekly data

LIHR IAG EGO RGLD GOLD TSE_AGI GSS NG NGD AEM

Interactive Daily data

Interactive Weekly data


Here are the key Silver miners and the SLV ETF: SLV SIL SVM CDE HL PAAS SSRI SLW MGN

Interactive Daily data

Interactive Weekly data


Here are the Weekly and Daily Data charts of the indexes:

Interactive Chart of Weekly US Goldminers Index:

Weekly US Goldminers Index - Weekly Chart

Interactive Chart of Daily US Goldminers Index:

Daily US Goldminers Index - Daily Chart


The US goldminer share trust ETF trades under the ticker symbol GDX.

Here are the US Goldminer ETF (GDX) index Weekly and Daily data charts:

GDX Weekly data:

GDX Weekly Data Chart

GDX Daily data:

GDX Daily Data Chart


The Toronto Exchange-listed goldminer iUnits S&P/TSX Capped Gold Index ETF trades under the ticker symbol TSE:XGD.

Just like GDX on the AMEX, you can trade XGD on Toronto. Canadian Dollar fluctuations will impact XGD vs GDX.

Here are the Weekly and Daily data charts for the TSX Goldshares (XGD) index:

Interactive Chart of XGD Weekly data:

XGD Weekly Data Chart

Interactive Chart of XGD Daily data:

XGD Daily Data Chart


Central Bank Update and Currencies Overview

You know my posture re currencies: “We are all forced to be currency traders today.” That requires continuous study of the central bank meetings – and the G20 meetings.

In this section, I reproduce any of the Econoday studies of international central bank meetings and reports for the current week – if there are any. This week there were three. When available, these are important reviews to be reading and following month to month.

wir13_12.52.gif
wir13_12.53.gif

Two or three weeks ago all these key central bankers were attending the G20 meeting in Russia [and as we know the G20 report to the public was a crock] and now they have returned home to (i) devise strategies and tactics that permits more QE without the appearance of more QE, and (ii) publicly announce they are sitting on their thumbs, er their hands.

As I say, if it waddles and quacks…

Here is the Econoday write-up on the international currency market this week:

wir13_12.54.gif

Deny it or not, most of the central banks would like to increase monetary stimulus, which devalues their currencies, simultaneously. That is the only way out of a major currency war, which if it happens would lead to an international trade war, something nobody wants. Better these countries believe would be to have more military war. I see they are constantly ratcheting up the pressure on North Korea and Iran.

Background:

The $USD is a trade-weighted US Dollar index, we used to call the Morgan Dollar.

The Forex market is a four trillion dollar a day marketplace, which dwarfs the size of the stock and bond markets. In this market, the Euro/USD is the highest volume trader, and London is the center of the universe.

The current value of $USD is a mean value of rate fluctuations of six world currencies (Japanese yen, Euro, British pound, Canadian dollar, Swiss franc and Swedish krona) that each trade against the USD. The Euro is by far the biggest component.

(As inserted in this space continuously) For some time I have opined that the $USD clearly no longer meets the needs of a globalized world with respect to a reserve currency benchmark.

There was some nonsense being peddled at the GOP convention this year that maybe the US ought to peg its Dollar to GOLD. Will not happen!

You see; neither side of the room at the country club in DC would agree to “play” in handcuffs.

I have suggested that Gold may now be the de facto benchmark and that I do not foresee a time when any of the G-20 governments or central bankers would want to cede power to the hard money crowd, so, if there are to be changes, a new form of paper money is likely to be introduced or, more likely, a new US Dollar index.

I would not be surprised, as I have often stated, if this US Dollar Index is someday reconstructed to include the Chinese Yuan, Brazilian Real, Indian Rupee, Russian Ruble, and Mexican Peso. What we have today – something we used to call the Morgan Dollar – is a joke. A new US Dollar index would simply be constructed by all G-20 currencies based on their past five-year trade weighted average. Then every five years, change the weighting to reflect the latest international trade data of the US.

As I see it, such a development has been crucially needed for the almost nine years I have been blogging. If you recall, I referred to it as a need for a General Agreement on Currencies.

There is a Powershares ETF that tracks the G-10 currencies (NYSE:DBV). I think we need track that vs the $USD. The ratio is expressed as a line $USD:DBV.

http://tinyurl.com/ltxpk4

As commodities are mostly priced in $USD for international transactions presently, you still need to study forex price trends and cycles when trading commodity price-sensitive instruments.

For currency traders, there is also an Emerging economy E-10 currency fund, the Wisdom Tree Emerging Currency Fund (NYSE:CEW), apparently holding the Mexican new peso, Brazilian real, Chilean peso, South African rand, Polish zloty, Israeli shekel, Turkish lira, Chinese yuan, South Korean won, Taiwanese dollar, and Indian rupee. I don’t know much about it.

http://tinyurl.com/6ybt2bz

Regarding currencies, I find the ADVFN.com service (with inexpensive real-time price feed) to be quite useful. I have set up a monitor (one of 200-some tickers) for currencies, which you can do as well.

Click on: http://www.advfn.com/p.php?pid=m_tools

Into the window for stocks, enter the following string of currency pairs:

FX:EURUSD, FX:AUDUSD, FX:GBPUSD, FX:EURGBP, FX:EURCHF, FX:EURCAD, FX:USDCAD, FX:EURJPY, FX:USDJPY, FX:AUDJPY, FX:EURAUD

When you call up the stocks, you’ll see they are interactive, which means they update in real-time (if you paid the $10/mo for this data) or 15-20-minute delayed prices (free), and can be displayed with indicators and overlays.

If you are new to examining currency pairs charts; think about it that in any pair where the latest trend line is rising, the first ticker is the one that is strong. So EURUSD, which is the way the contract is traded, when the trend line is up, the Euro is in rally mode against the US Dollar.

The symbol USD in any pair is the denomination versus $USD, which is the trade-weighted US Dollar index (i.e., multiple currencies as described above).

A chart of the Euro vs Dollar (i.e., EURUSD) with an overlay of currencies (GBP, AUD and CAD in this case) will show you if, as, and the point when, currencies are impacting capital markets. We are looking for commonality in trend direction of the currencies in their trading against the US Dollar.


Individual Currencies Review

This week, the US Dollar ($USD) dropped -0.77% W/W to close at 82.13. There was a loss of -0.54% on Friday – after the CPI number was posted.

A week ago I wrote in this space: “At some point soon, I think, the USD will top out.” Maybe Friday did the trick. I think I’ll wait for a couple weeks to decide.

Here is the Weekly data chart of the $USD (82.13) in solid blue line along with 8-week EMA in dashed blue (81.43), and the S&P 500 (1560.70) in solid thin orange line, showing counter-cyclicality – at least until recently. Since the end of January, the chart had been quite Bullish for the Dollar, which ought to have meant Bearish for the S&P 500, but it didn’t happen that way. Until the last price breaks below the EMA-8w, this is still a Bullish chart. But, now the RSI-7w has broken from about 76 to 64.69, which is a SELL Alert, so we are “on alert”. [Remember, we sell into strength once we’ve decided on a strategy.]

wir13_12.55.gif

The high-low this week was 83.18—82.06 vs (i) 82.94—81.96 (ii) 82.51—81.07 (iii) 81.59—80.27 (iv) 80.62—79.84 (v) 80.28—78.92 (vi) 79.93—78.92 (vii) 80.15—79.68 (viii) 80.19—79.35 (ix) 80.87—79.43 and (x) 80.87—79.28, over the previous ten weeks.

http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?s=$usd
http://tinyurl.com/y9c3sr4

Weekly US Dollar Index - Weekly Chart

Interactive Chart of Daily US US Dollar Index:

Daily US Dollar Index - Daily Chart


This week, the Euro ($XEU +0.55% W/W) closed higher at 130.77. However there was a large loss of -0.77% on the prior Friday and this week’s gain was made entirely by the gain of +0.56% on Friday.

The Dollar weakened after the PPI and CPI reports on Thursday and Friday indicated some extreme inflation data showing up. Wait a couple days and there will be reasons to believe that QE is on the table, and the Dollar will weaken more and the Euro will strengthen.

Here is the Weekly data chart of the Euro ($XEU 130.77) in US Dollar terms, in the solid blue line, with the 8-week EMA (131.90) in dashed blue, and the S&P 500 1560.70 in the thin solid orange line. That is a Bearish chart for the Euro regardless.

wir13_12.56.gif

The new high-low for the Euro this week was 131.07—129.12 vs (i) 131.18—129.55 (ii) 133.19—129.67 (iii) 133.97—131.46 (iv) 134.97—133.09 (v) 135.97—133.54 (vi) 134.79—132.65 (vii) 133.94—132.57 (viii) 133.65—130.23 (ix) 132.74—130.04 (x) 132.83—131.75, and (xi) 133.08—131.50 over the previous eleven weeks.

As noted previously, there had been a very bullish strengthening move in the Euro since mid-July after the Eurozone political and central bank leaders seemed to get their act in gear re the weakness from Greece, Spain, Italy, etc. Then four weeks ago, right before the Italian election, I reported: “Except for a bit of weakness in the Euro at the beginning of the year, this week was only the second period of weakness, and it may be short-lived.” Unfortunately the Euro Bear arrived three weeks ago, and may persist for a couple weeks longer.

Some of us believe it’s only a question of time before the Dollar tops out.

Interactive Chart of Weekly Euro Dollar Index, priced in USD:

Weekly Euro Dollar Index - Priced in USD

Interactive Chart of Daily Euro Dollar Index, priced in USD:

Daily Euro Dollar Index - Priced in USD


The Pound sterling future ($XBP) soared +1.33% W/W to close at 151.16.

Here is the Weekly data chart of the Pound @ 151.16 in the solid blue line with the 8-week EMA @ 153.32 in dashed blue and the S&P 500 @ 1560.70 in the solid thin orange line.

wir13_12.57.gif]

The hi-lo for the week was 151.77—148.56 vs (i) 151.81—148.86 (ii) 152.22—149.86 (iii) 154.85—151.58 (iv) 156.97—154.75 (v) 158.44—156.31 (vi) 158.75—156.75 (vii) 158.92—157.57 (viii) 161.01—158.54 (ix) 161.71—159.93 (x) 163.14—160.13 (xi) 161-82—160.67 and (xii) 163.02—161.52 over the previous 12 weeks.

http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?s=$xbp
http://tinyurl.com/yasdzc2

Weekly British Pound Index:

Weekly British Pound - Weekly Chart

Daily British Pound Index:

Daily British Pound Index - Daily Chart


Weekly Japanese Yen Index:

A week ago the Yen ($XJY) plunged -2.49% W/W. The close was 104.17. This week there was some short-covering on Friday as the Yen soared +0.85% on the day. That resulted in a gain of +0.75% W/W. The close this week was 104.95.

The recent losses are large. “In late September, the Yen contract traded above 128. That is a skyfall.”

Here is the Weekly data chart of the Yen (solid blue line) at 104.95, with the EMA-8w at 107.46 and the S&P 500 (in the thin solid orange line) at 1560.70.

wir13_12.58.gif

The contract hi-lo for the week was 105.18—103.54 vs (i) 107.46—103.55 (ii) 110.02—106.23 (iii) 107.80—106.35 (iv) 107.92—105.86 (v) 108.47—106.72 (vi) 110.59—107.56 (vii) 113.12—109.67 (viii) 113.64—110.96 (ix) 115.07—111.80 (x) 116.15—113.14 (xi) 118.43—116.06 (xii) 119.55—118.20, and (xiii) 122.38—120.74, over the previous 13 weeks.

The RSI-7w has lifted from 4.93 to 14.15.

Watch for US duties or some other kind of prohibition against imported Japanese goods.

Weekly Japanese Yen - Weekly Chart

Daily Japanese Yen Index:

Daily Japanese Yen Index - Daily Chart


Daily Canadian Dollar:

This week the Cdn Dollar ($CDWgained +0.82% to 98.08. There was a gain of +0.26% on Friday.

The Weekly data chart of the Loonie shows the very high correlation between the Cdn Dollar ($CDW) in the solid blue line to the S&P 500 ($SPX) in the thin solid orange line.

wir13_12.59.gif

The high-low for the Loonie this week was 98.23—97.13 vs (i) 97.71—96.74 (ii) 97.83—96.68 (iii) 98.91—97.50 (iv) 100.03—99.15 (v) 100.51—99.63 (vi) 100.43—99.02 (vii) 100.87—99.01 (viii) 101.69—100.52 (ix) 101.89—101.17 (x) 101.67—100.29 (xi) 100.94—100.30 and (xii) 101.70—100.47, over the previous 12 weeks, which is still Bearish.

As written up in this space previously:

There is usually a rising Canadian Dollar when commodity prices and related beneficiaries like Oilers and Miners are in strong long-term Bull phases. The opposite happens in disinflationary markets, and early on in deflationary markets. In deflationary markets, the G-8 govts and central banks tend to flood the international financial system with new money (to generate a wealth effect) and the Oilers and Miners benefit from that.

We are seeing only the first side of the currency war. Pretty soon the Americans will have to stand down or else their exports will get crunched, and unemployment levels will rise again.

http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?s=$cdw
http://tinyurl.com/ycx58us

Weekly Canadian Dollar Index:

Weekly Canadian Dollar - Weekly Chart

Daily Canadian Dollar Index:

Daily Canadian Dollar Index - Daily Chart

Here is the China Yuan (CNY) chart.


Wrap-up:

This has been a busy week. New member of the family.

wir13_12.60.gif

Pat sees a resemblance with me. What do you think?

Well, I have more teeth and less hair. Otherwise… 🙂

On Tuesday I will be in Boston for the day to meet a couple famous architects to privately discuss a project they want me to do in the Caribbean. I haven’t been to the Harvard campus for years, since 1976 to be precise, but I’m looking forward to it.

The trip that is… I don’t know about the project yet.

My crystal ball is also indicating trips coming up to Malta and India as well. Maybe I’ll take a couple months. I think I need it.

Have a good week ahead.


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