Bill Cara’s Blog for Mar 15, 2013

CTA Trading Desk Morning Report

[7:00am ET] Good morning, Geoff here.

Could the tide be turning for the “rest of us”?

The Senate looks to be on to JP Morgan’s deceitful ways. However, because Washington was complicit on much of the bank fraud that led to the country’s current financial situation, I’m pessimistic on anything actually coming of this.

The Commodity Futures Trading Commission is considering an investigation regarding the London price fixing in the gold and silver markets. Because of the huge, some would call illegal, short positions in said commodities that has been allowed, I’m pessimistic on anything actually coming of this.

The Administration is drawing up plans to allow US spy agencies full access to US citizens’ financial activity. Because privacy and eventually liberties will be infringed upon, I am positive that this will move forward.

A near miss between a spy Drone and a commercial flight was witnessed a couple of weeks ago in New York. Because privacy and eventually liberties will be infringed upon, I am positive that the Drone air fleet will grow and eventually there will be an in air collision leading to deaths.

My feelings on the above matters are formed by trends. I’m pretty sure that I am not the only one that feels the way I do, and unless the trend moves back towards the citizen, more people will begin to see what is happening around them.

However, that means little to trading.

This morning, the US Dollar has moved below the 10 dma, but I want to see a close there. Here is the chart that the simpleton is watching (yesterday’s closing prices) – once the trend changes to US Dollar down, the others are up and you can see that they have already signaled that move with the Australian Dollar first to the party.

ggimage01_031513.png

Watch the above relationships because the dollar’s run is long in the tooth and the other securities are ready to pop.

Have a great trading day and weekend!


Here are the 7:00am ET snapshots of the latest equity market trading results for Europe, and futures prices plus 5-minute charts of the futures for S&P 500, 30-year US Treasury Bond, US Dollar index, Gold and Crude Oil.

Symbol Name Last Trade Change Related Info
^ATX ATX 2,503.68 6:44AM EDT Down 14.32 (0.57%) Components, Chart, More
^BFX BEL-20 2,647.00 Mar 14 Up 18.40 (0.70%) Components, Chart, More
^FCHI CAC 40 3,849.12 6:59AM EDT Down 22.46 (0.58%) Components, Chart, More
^GDAXI DAX 8,059.92 6:45AM EDT Up 1.55 (0.02%) Components, Chart, More
AEX.AS AEX General 355.32 6:44AM EDT Down 0.53 (0.15%) Components, Chart, More
^OSEAX OSE All Share 526.27 6:45AM EDT Down 1.60 (0.30%) Components, Chart, More
^OMXSPI Stockholm General 379.85 6:43AM EDT Down 1.26 (0.33%) Components, Chart, More
^SSMI Swiss Market 7,842.04 6:45AM EDT Down 0.81 (0.01%) Components, Chart, More
^FTSE FTSE 100 6,510.36 6:45AM EDT Down 19.05 (0.29%) Components, Chart, More
FPXAA.PR PX Index 1,010.03 7:00AM EDT Down 8.85 (0.87%) Chart, More
MICEXINDEXCF.ME MICEX Index 1,498.97 8:00AM EDT 0.00 (0.00%) Chart, More
GD.AT Athex Composite Share Price Index 972.72 6:44AM EDT Up 4.43 (0.46%) Chart, More

http://finviz.com/futures.ashx

http://finviz.com/fut_chart.ashx?p=m5&t=ES

http://finviz.com/fut_chart.ashx?p=m5&t=ZB

http://finviz.com/fut_chart.ashx?p=m5&t=DX

http://finviz.com/fut_chart.ashx?p=m5&t=GC

http://finviz.com/fut_chart.ashx?p=m5&t=SI

http://finviz.com/fut_chart.ashx?p=m5&t=CL

The team will check in during the day, reporting in the Discourse when there is a new entry.

Enjoy your day.


Cara 100 Company research notes from Seeking Alpha

Boeing (BA)

Mar15: 3:12 AM Boeing’s (BA) 787 could restart flights “in weeks, not in months,” the company says after detailing a “permanent fix” for its lithium-ion battery problems that “addresses all (the) causal factors” which led to two burn-outs. Boeing will put the batteries in stainless steel cases, and add extra insulation, spacers and heat-resistant sleeving. Boeing has also asked suppliers Yuasa and Thales to improve production standards. Mar14: 8:56 AM Boeing (BA +0.15%) receives an order for six 777-300 extended range jets from Swiss International Air Lines in a deal valued at $1.9B at list prices. Meanwhile, Boeing plans to give a briefing in Tokyo tomorrow to “provide details on the proposed permanent solution to the 787 battery issue.” The location indicates the importance that the plane maker places on ensuring the happiness of two of its biggest customers, Japan Airlines and All Nippon Airways.


Carnival (CCL)

Mar15: 6:53 AM Carnival (CCL) says the 4K passengers on its stricken Dream ship are in the process of being flown back to Florida. In yet another mishap, another ship at sea is having technical problems which are having an impact on sailing speed. CCL -0.6% premarket.


Dow Chemical (DOW)

Mar14: 10:01 AM Dow Chemical (DOW +0.6%) intends to raise almost $1.5B from selling assets over the next year and a half, and has put its polypropylene licensing & catalysts business and its plastics additives unit up for sale. Dow describes the move as being part of its “rigorous focus on return on capital;” since 2009, the company has sold non-core businesses representing about $8B in revenue.


Target (TGT)

Mar15: 1:18 PM Target (TGT -0.2%) announces two e-commerce purchases to help boost its cooking and kitchenware business. The retailer acquired Chefs Catalog and the assets of Cooking.com in separate deals.


United Technologies (UTX)

Mar15: 12:36 PM United Technologies (UTX +0.3%) reaffirms its outlook for 2013, expecting an EPS of between $5.85 to $6.15, on sales of $64B to $65B. The company also continues to anticipate cash flow from operations less capital expenditures will be equal to or in excess of net income attributable to common shareowners.


Vale (VALE)

Mar14: 9:43 AM Vale (VALE -0.2%) reportedly hires BAML to sell minority stakes in two of its undeveloped Australian coal assets, including the Belvedere project in Queensland state. Belvedere could require $2B of investment, and is due to be completed in 2016; initial production is forecast at up to 2M tons/year of coal, rising to 7M tons later.


Vad’s Catch of the Day


Kaimu’s Sound Money


Deron’s Daily ETF Analysis


Point and Figure on Canada


OptionOracle


Harp’s Roadmap


Cara on the Metalminers


Cara on the International Markets


CTA Trading Desk Mid-Day Report


CTA Trading Desk Post-Close Report



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kaimu
March 18, 2013 5:11 am

ALOHA!! For those loyal two party voters who will always vote DEM or REP I submit this. For those who believe that their elected President could never be dishonest or manipulate anything I submit this. For those who think we have the best and the brightest in the Oval Office and the Pentagon I submit this. For those who want to question authority I submit this … LINK: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-21768668 Johnson felt it was the ultimate expression of political hypocrisy but in calls recorded with Clifford they express the fear that going public would require revealing the FBI were bugging the… Read more »

Vadym Graifer
March 18, 2013 12:39 am

(EU) Investor Doug Kass: European markets could fall 3-4% on Monday due to Cyprus “bail-in” terms – financial press

To me, this is going to be a good test of the theory that PMs are seen as a hedge against EU collapse and should rise with USD. So far, indications are this is the case:

Euro vs US Dollar Open down over 150pips below $1.2920
StreetTracks Gold Trust Apr Gold rises above $1,600; up $12 from Friday close

davefairtex
davefairtex
Reply to  Vadym Graifer
March 18, 2013 3:39 am

Its definitely interesting. So far my interpretation of PM movement over the past 3 weeks is the big guys are actively trying to wash out both shorts and longs on both sides of whatever the current trading range is. In asia trading this has happened again. First the gap up open stopping out any shorts above 1600 (through 1607) and then back down to wash out the new longs to 1590 all in the space of 3 hours. Its an evil market, one I’m content to watch rather than actively participate in. I honestly don’t think that 20:1 leveraged futures… Read more »

Ilya
Ilya
Reply to  davefairtex
March 18, 2013 4:21 am

Governments ‘steal’ through inflation and negative (real, inflation adjusted) manipulated interest rates but this German mandated ‘Bail in’ is clearly confiscatory at the source… It will indeed be interesting to see if the europhile humble man on the street takes this as a one-off or whether cash bleeds out of the banks to under the sacred mattress. It’s one thing to be paid nothing on your money on deposit but quite another when your deposits become ‘sitting ducks’ and liable to big percentage haircuts to save those institutions deemed by some unelected pooh-bahs as too big to flail… The comedia… Read more »

terryC
terryC
Reply to  davefairtex
March 18, 2013 4:03 am

The message telegraphed from Cyprus is clear to everybody, and even the Italians are listening. Your savings are not safe in a bank when a 10% Euro-tax on deposits can circumvent deposit insurance or other promises of protection. I don’t think it is now unreasonable to think this will be the catalyst for igniting a new rush on bullion, unless of course the bureaucrats try to pre-empt this with a huge tax on bullion purchases too.

davefairtex
davefairtex
Reply to  terryC
March 18, 2013 4:22 am

The power structure can tell itself that each action is unique, and they can justify each senior bondholder group saved at the expense of Grandma’s deposits earned over a lifetime, but each action like this will slowly eat away at the confidence “in the system” in every country of the eurozone. This slow corrosive effect will gradually send money into hiding outside the banking system. And the more taxes are imposed on things such as property, wealth, and bank accounts (!) the more emphasis that will be placed on portable, untraceable wealth. The series of actions taken by the powers… Read more »

Ilya
Ilya
Reply to  davefairtex
March 18, 2013 5:10 am

Dave,
Well said.
Hiding steers in the forest might be similar to hiding Welch ponies from the King’s edict but a drone is a drone and they can see everything. No-where to hide assets…

Matress cash might seem to some as deflationary since ‘credit’ is withdrawn from the system but everyday transactional household cash is very small compared to the muli-trillions bandered about in the debt markets each day.

When the Swiss sold out, as they did, where can a dishonest man earn an honest return? Or said differently, why would an honest man stand for a dishonest negative return?

terryC
terryC
Reply to  davefairtex
March 18, 2013 4:03 am

The message telegraphed from Cyprus is clear to everybody, and even the Italians are listening. Your savings are not safe in a bank when a 10% Euro-tax on deposits can circumvent deposit insurance or other promises of protection. I don’t think it is now unreasonable to think this will be the catalyst for igniting a new rush on bullion, unless of course the bureaucrats try to pre-empt this with a huge tax on bullion purchases too.

Bill Cara
Admin
March 17, 2013 11:57 pm

Been so busy, I almost forgot:

May your blessings outnumber
The shamrocks that grow,
And may trouble avoid you
Wherever you go.

Happy Saint Patrick’s Day

jock
jock
March 17, 2013 9:30 pm

This London taxi driver “gets it”. If ECB, IMF, EU can break the law re deposit insurance in Cyprus, they can do it in Spain or Italy or UK!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YDXtHsz2q6Q&feature

Punish the savers, reward the speculators…

And the dumb money thought we’d seen the last euro-spasm! that Beppo is just funny ..

This taxi driver is the “canary in the coal mine”!

Ron Sen
Ron Sen
March 17, 2013 8:36 pm

http://ronsen.blogspot.com/2013/03/verrry-interest

http://ronsen.blogspot.com/2013/03/reset.html

Will Tom DeMark’s Sequential ™ and the “Poor Man’s DeMark” (RSI777) prove prescient?

At least Bernanke has the courtesy to take our money slowly instead of in lump sums…

Bill Cara
Admin
March 17, 2013 7:52 pm

… is up.

Time to relax.

Vadym Graifer
March 17, 2013 7:26 pm
loannetter
March 16, 2013 7:29 pm

http://www.streetauthority.com/income-investing/10

Of course, I couldn’t possibly comment on this.

Vadym Graifer
March 16, 2013 6:15 pm
Seamus
Seamus
March 16, 2013 4:55 pm

Latest Excerpt from Market Edge Daily Commentary:

“Market action in the week after the quadruple witching in the past year suggests that there could be more pullbacks in the next few sessions.

The S&P 500 finished lower in each of the weeks following a quadruple witching last year. It could be that the money managers had to reload put options as a protection for their portfolios after the prior options expired. This would cause the volatility to rise and prices to drop. It wouldn’t be surprising to see the same thing happen this year.”

Ahh, The Ides of March.

Seamus
Seamus
March 16, 2013 4:45 pm
kaimu
Reply to  Seamus
March 16, 2013 6:10 pm

ALOHA!! “Takes one to catch one,” It takes a crook to appoint a crook in other words! No wonder we are still suffering from archaic and corrupt laws like the DBA and Rule 144, instigated by FDR! Really FDR? So with that wise logic we have to fire all the police men and hire crack dealers to catch crack dealers. I guess honest police men won’t do. What a load of FDR bunk! One of the biggest frauds against US citizens was none other than FDRs own executive orders confiscating citizens gold and declaring a 35 year “bank emergency”. Should… Read more »

Napoleon001
Napoleon001
March 16, 2013 3:02 pm

Interesting weekend listen from a former Assistant Secretary of the Treasury discussing many of the topics we bounce back and forth regarding manipulation of the various markets.

http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/Broadcast/E

Makes me think back to our discussion on Thursday when Mayhem991 posted “Could Gold Be The Next Libor Scandal? US regulator considering an inquiry into London’s gold and silver markets to check if prices are open to manipulation

http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2013/mar/13/lon

and we were speculating why now? They were considering any inquiry…does it goes anywhere?

indptrader
indptrader
March 16, 2013 1:46 pm

The question that comes to mind is if a Rig worker is doing this how many others?

Rig worker manipulated stock market, says ASC

http://www.calgaryherald.com/business/Calgary+work

Quasi
Quasi
Reply to  indptrader
March 16, 2013 4:04 pm

Indptrader, “..if a Rig worker is doing this how many others?” My guess would be 1000’s to 100,000’s worldwide in thinly traded low priced stocks. In the old days, when you had to trade thru a broker, he would have to be involved, but now with self directed online accounts there’s really no one watching. I also doubt he was working alone, they usually work in small groups, targeting these types of penny stocks with a very low daily $ value traded. They have multiple alias’s on stock chat lines, confirming and backing up their own posts, creating false quotes… Read more »

kaimu
March 16, 2013 12:43 pm

ALOHA!! Is Cyprus the “Archduke Ferdinand” … the “iceberg” … for the EU? Perhaps it is the “things to come” for global citizens who are suffering under heavily indebted governments that supported heavily insolvent banks. Hmmm … that’s about every country except the poorest ones who are so poor they can default and nobody would notice. It gives new meaning to the “meek shall inherit the Earth” motto! For after all … what do poor people have to lose? LINK: http://pawelmorski.wordpress.com/2013/03/16/cyprus… One thing is for sure I am glad I have no cash deposited in a Cyprus bank. Also it… Read more »

4ever
4ever
Reply to  kaimu
March 17, 2013 2:34 am

Is this possibly a trigger event to domino across Euroland?

Napoleon001
Napoleon001
Reply to  kaimu
March 17, 2013 1:19 am

In other words it’s not really our money, it’s theirs, and they’ll take it back whenever it suits them. This wasn’t even a tax, it’s just that calling it a “tax” sounds better than saying we just stole 10% of your savings; have a great weekend!

Certainly doesn’t hurt the case for holding physical precious metals (better not keep it in a bank!).

BOB 47
BOB 47
Reply to  kaimu
March 16, 2013 4:59 pm

Kaimu , at the bottom of the article in your url link , it noted the destination of choice for Russian money is Latvia ! A country that slashed public spending a few years ago and now has a 5% growth rate ! A stable conservative government and stable conservative banks apparently attract foreign money deposits and growth . Where do they get these crazy ideas ?

kaimu
Reply to  BOB 47
March 16, 2013 6:12 pm

ALOHA!!

Yes, I saw that. Yeah, imagine that … an honest government and an honest bank! Who’d a thought those simple concepts would lead to economic prosperity and growth with long term monetary value?

JimG
JimG
Reply to  kaimu
March 16, 2013 7:40 pm

What happened in CYPRUS certainly explains the run up in Treasuries on Friday.

kaimu
Reply to  JimG
March 17, 2013 2:41 am

ALOHA!! A new IMF twist to the CYPRUSGATE … From the Jim Sinclair website this afternoon: “The wire reports on the Cyprus situation are working overtime to try to make the case that 80% of the deposits belong to the people of Cyprus, and only 20% of the deposits belong to the Russians. That’s absolutely false. After 1985, when the ‘Robber Barrons’ of Russia took over the general economics of Russia, that was the transformation from the KGB to private business. The primary place for exported Russian funds was Cyprus. Now, there is one leader in the world that would… Read more »

Ilya
Ilya
Reply to  kaimu
March 17, 2013 4:46 am

Russians do not take kindly to anyone who would perloin their ‘synachki.’ Fingers will be lost, and more. The International Monetary Fraud as well as the World Prank rank up there with the U.S. Fed as unholy manipulative shylocks who need to be put out of our misery. Like the old joke; how many central bankers does it take to change a lightbulb? About 31. One stands on the table with the bulb in the socket and 30 pick up and turn the table, except that in this case they are all moving counterclockwise and the world remains in the… Read more »

Juniorgoldminerseeker
Juniorgoldminerseeker
Reply to  Ilya
March 17, 2013 10:07 am
BOB 47
BOB 47
Reply to  Juniorgoldminerseeker
March 17, 2013 2:42 pm

This is a very interesting juncture we have reached , it goes in so many directions . The first shoe to DROP in the next financial explosion . . The E.U. has turned Cyprus into a giant reeducation camp , that property you thought was yours really belongs to the state . . A training lesson for all leaders world wide that might feel the need for more power and tighter control over ” THEIR ” subjects . And yes it reduces the hunt for a safe place to ” SAFELY “deposit your savings . Singapore , Australia , Canada… Read more »

davefairtex
davefairtex
Reply to  BOB 47
March 17, 2013 5:52 pm

As always, we need to watch the market’s reaction. How will Spanish bank depositors react? How about the Italian voters deciding between “more of the same” or Beppe Grillo’s Five Star movement? The sovereign bondholders seem well taken care of by the ECB, but the lowly bank depositor – not so much.

I can’t imagine anything worse for savings encouragement than a 10% savings tax. Sheesh.

Cash & anything outside the banking system would seem to be a win.

BOB 47
BOB 47
Reply to  kaimu
March 17, 2013 4:23 am

I feel the hot heads that ” inadvertently ” relieved some very sensitive Russian’s of their hard earned savings , will reverse their directive at least for Russian and any Chinese savings . Indeed it could be looked upon as another cost saving measure , and that way reduce the number of heads made to roll .

Grym
Grym
March 16, 2013 12:03 pm

Interestingly, Friday volume is roughly triple the one year daily average.

Bull Hunter
Bull Hunter
Reply to  Grym
March 16, 2013 1:18 pm

Hi Grym,

Heavier volume was due to quadruple witching and rebalancing in the S&P 500.

I’m guessing that the normal, low volume will resume on Monday.

Regards,
BH

Vahlsing
Vahlsing
March 16, 2013 4:50 am
Ynot
Ynot
March 15, 2013 8:26 pm

While I’ve been watching the price in USD CAD only, others haven’t.

http://www.investing.com/analysis/so-that's-where-the-gold-bulls-went!-159156

I think this basically corroborates what Geoff has been saying this week vis a vis the USD and its relationship to AU.

EDIT: trying to fix the link, but it doesn’t seem to work…

Quasi
Quasi
Reply to  Ynot
March 15, 2013 9:44 pm

Ynot, the problem is with the “!” in the URL link, its just one of a few problem characters which the software does not like. There are a couple of workarounds, see the website help index or the direct link below.

http://caracommunity.com/content/chart-and-link-po

Here’s a link which should work.

http://www.investing.com/analysis/so-that's-where-the-gold-bulls-went!-159156

PS, Yes I also follow and chart Gold in various currencies.

Vadym Graifer
March 15, 2013 8:08 pm

of a different kind today: some educational discussion, starting at 14:09 with line ” since it’s Friday, and not very active, we can theorize a bit”

http://goo.gl/IYHM6

JimG
JimG
March 15, 2013 7:27 pm

It is not only “US citizens’ financial activity”…it’s our children’s school records that will be shared with not only government agencies but with private companies. Notice how they redefined a “school official” as a private company… But the most influential new product may be the least flashy: a $100 million database built to chart the academic paths of public school students from kindergarten through high school. In operation just three months, the database already holds files on millions of children identified by name, address and sometimes social security number. Learning disabilities are documented, test scores recorded, attendance noted. In some… Read more »

bigwad1
bigwad1
March 15, 2013 6:25 pm

Greenberg and Bernie Madoff have the same lawyers.

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/aig-bailout-left-

JimG
JimG
March 15, 2013 5:48 pm

via MarketWatch The Treasury Department on Friday announced that it wants to examine trading earlier this week in the 10-year note auctioned in February. As a result, any market participant holding over $2 billion of this 10-year note as of the close of business on March 11 must report its holdings to the government. Treasury officials said that market ‘fails” reached elevated levels earlier this week, not just in this 10-year note. A fail is when a securities firm promises to deliver a Treasury security to a buyer but is subsequently unable to obtain it in the market. Treasury last… Read more »

Grym
Grym
March 15, 2013 3:57 pm

“A near miss between a spy Drone and a commercial flight was witnessed a couple of weeks ago in New York. Because privacy and eventually liberties will be infringed upon, I am positive that the Drone air fleet will grow and eventually there will be an in air collision leading to deaths. “My feelings on the above matters are formed by trends. I’m pretty sure that I am not the only one that feels the way I do, and unless the trend moves back towards the citizen, more people will begin to see what is happening around them.” ——— The… Read more »

Bull Hunter
Bull Hunter
March 15, 2013 3:31 pm

It’s all the rage on the Street…I believe Bill mentioned it in here a few weeks ago.

Here’s a good place to start if you’re interested:

http://tinyurl.com/c47btrd

Have a great weekend.

BH